The Future for the Islanders: How a Small Market Team becomes a Title Contender
by garik16 on Jan 22, 2011 12:58 AM EST
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PrintOne thing New York fans are not accustomed to is a team that can't spend money. Almost all of us here are fans of other New York sports teams and every one of those teams is a big budget team that can spend a lot of money (And I'm a Met Fan, but don't go claiming that's only the Yankees....the Mets spend a ton too). But the Islanders aren't like that. They are losing around 20 (More?) million dollars a year. They CANNOT spend a lot of money. The Cap floor is essentially our cap ceiling.
Many of you will object to this: but the Isles made plays for top free agents in the offseason, but were turned down because of the coliseum? After all we went big after Ilya Kovalchuk! How about Paul Martin or Dan Hamhuis - whom two sources stated were given the top offer by the Isles? The answer is yes, it's possible for the Isles to sign a big name flashy FA; Wang may decide to splurge a little bit, so as to possibly get more attention to his team (hoping that will recoup the investment) and to the lighthouse situation. That of course explains Kovalchuk. Hamhuis and Martin were approached early in the FA situation and both were situations in which the Isles were under the cap still....it's unlikely the Islanders would have signed both players and this was before the signings of several others (James Wisniewksi's contract in particular).
The end result is something like this: The Islanders Salary is probably going to be until 2014-2015 right at the cap floor, with it's absolute ceiling being 10M above the floor, and a probable ceiling being 5M above the floor. They won't spend more unless it's absolutely clear that it will pay for itself (win a championship), and thus they won't spend more until it will help them succeed in their new location after the Coliseum lease ends, whether that be in Queens, Brooklyn, or elsewhere (I don't want to think about this option).
This of course poses problems to the Islanders that other teams - such as our hated neighbors - do not have. It also makes creating a title contender quite a bit trickier than some posters here on this board seem to understand.
Drafting, Acquiring, and Keeping Hold of Young, Cheap, Talented Players.
A small market team's best weapon for success is using the draft and other methods (trading for prospects) to acquire young talent for cheap, whom they have control over for several years. This is of course the best tool for success for ANY team, but for a small market team it is ESSENTIAL. To use a baseball analogy (and I'll be using a lot of these, as I'm most knowledgeable about baseball despite it sharing the top spot in my heart with hockey), poor use of the draft as a small market team results in you becoming the next Pittsburgh Pirates (#18 Farm System in MLB), while good use of the draft can make you the next Tampa Bay Rays (#2 Farm System in MLB).
A small market team does so in multiple ways.
- First, it takes more chances on the later picks, going for high potential and ignoring non-hockey concerns (An example of this would be drafting both Kirils, as both have high potential, but for non-ice-related-reasons dropped down the rankings).
- Second, it accumulates more picks if it can, so that it has a higher potential of picking up diamonds in the rough (This was successfully accomplished with the 5 to 7 to 9 move a few years back).
- Third, of course, a small market team needs to make better picks - but well, the draft can be a crap shoot at times and this is often more luck of the draw than good scouting
Fourth, the team manages its salary to HOLD ON to its young talent, while letting older players go by the wayside unless they can afford to keep them. This is the kicker: If you manage to have multiple young players on the team at once, when they all hit RFA, then UFA statuses, your salary suddenly faces a crisis. In the NHL, an entry level contract is three years long (or two for players of an older age), after which the players become a RFA, after which these players suddenly suddenly stop being super-cheap and become a little drain on the team's salary (For reference, Matt Moulson went from minimum to 2.45 Million dollars,, and that was without any bargaining power due to restricted free agency). And if those players hit UNRESTRICTED free agency at once (age 27 or after 7 seasons in the league), well suddenly the team will have massive monetary problems.
So how does the team deal with this? First of all, it should obtain longer-term contracts for it's most important RFAs, potentially buying out UFA years, or if not, then at least locking down the players' RFA years at a reasonable increase. Offer sheets are not really a problem (like what, 1 or 2 players a year get an offer sheet, and it's not a likely occurrence even for valuable RFAs), but in this method you can lock down players for cheaper costs than you would otherwise.
*Now the Islanders have already failed recently in this regard: Matt Moulson was the perfect example of a young(ish) talent who they had a year of RFA control over....and they simply got a one-year deal done. Moulson's situation is an odd one in that it was a flash out of the blue, but that simply should've aided the Isles in getting a longer deal done (as Moulson not taking a longer deal would result in him risking a bad performance or an injury ruining any UFA salary increases). Instead, the Islanders signed him to a one year deal, leading to Moulson being perilously close to leaving the Islanders after two seasons and the Islanders being rumored to trade Moulson at the deadline. A trade isn't terrible (it's better than losing the player for nothing), but it's not what you'd hope for when you luck into a 30 goal scorer with a bargain free agent pickup for the minimum salary.
P.A. Parenteau is another potential failure for the Isles if they don't act soon; while he's not as likely to be demanded as Moulson is, Parenteau is a UFA this year and as a probable 20 goal, 50 total point scorer, may be able to find more money elsewhere. Great pickup for this year, but the Islanders really should be thinking long term, and picking up guys for 1-2 years only to have them leave does you no good even if they turn out to play well during those years on the Isles.
NOTE: I've skipped over in this piece the very important other method of talent accumulation: taking a chance on waived or un-tendered young free agents like PA Parenteau and Matt Moulson, which is also very important to a small market team....but such a team needs to be able to actually sign long-term those guys if they turn out well. If not, such acquisitions are pointless unless the team is ready to compete.
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Signings and Trades:
I've talked about drafting, and I'm now going to talk about signings and trades.
1. There is a big thing that small market teams must do in order to succeed: They must NEVER lose a valuable player and gain NO compensation unless the team is competing for the title and cannot afford to trade a player who refuses to sign an extension. These teams cannot even take a CHANCE of this occurring. If a player would be an unrestricted free agent, refuses to sign an extension before the trade deadline, and has some value, the team MUST trade that player away unless the team is 100% sure that that player will not receive a free agent offer. Of course, if that player wouldn't receive a free agent offer, odds are good that the player has no trade value in the first place.
On the current Islander team, that refers to Matt Moulson (and to a lesser extent P.A. Parenteau.). Next season that also applies to Frans Nielsen. What this means is that for this season, if an extension for MMM isn't worked out by the trade deadline, the team MUST TRADE MATT MOULSON. This is a touchy area here among Islander fans as I've seen lately....if we trade away Moulson these fans say, you send a message to the fans that we can't keep players and that we don't reward excellence.
Well guess what guys, we CAN'T keep players for larger amounts of money. As this whole post talks about, we are a small market team, who can't be like the Rangers and open up the wallet. And if we can get a decent prospect or a decent package of picks (a late first rounder in two years drafts perhaps, or a first and a second?), the Isles should make the move. Yeah, it sucks....but this isn't baseball, where a team can keep a player and get free agents as compensation if they leave in free agency. In hockey, if they leave in unrestricted free agency, the team gets nothing. So if that's likely, or even is very possible (lets say a 33% chance of occurring), the Isles should make the trade. The team cannot replace players easily through signings, and thus cannot continue rising toward contention without getting something in return for every piece that falls out of our hands.
2. When re-signing or signing players, the Islanders need to keep an eye on the age of said player and their likely progression over the next few years. Signing a veteran leader to a cheap deal (Weight) is a fine move. Signing a 30+ year old player to a multi year deal for not a small amount of money? The team can't do it. In those situations, the odds are good that the team will get burned and be paying good amounts of salary to players who are inferior to others available for the same amount of money. The team needs to be EFFICIENT. Paying older players a decent amount for more than a single year is almost always inefficient and thus what a team can't afford.
On the Islanders right now, the only situation like this coming up is Mark Streit in two years time (he's under contract for the next two seasons). Odds are good that the last of those seasons will be the worst of Streit's as an Islander, just simply due to aging. If that holds true, a long term contract for similar amounts of money to his current contract is right out. In fact, in that case, the Isles should let Streit walk unless he takes a salary cut down to half his current salary (odds are good he'd walk). If the aging pattern doesn't hold true, the team should still be extremely wary of a longer-term deal for the aging defenseman. Older players (30+) should get one year contracts, if possible, unless the team is a title contender and needs them to stay there.
3. Signing Bigger-Name Free Agents: The Islanders, due to their small market status, are unable to sign big name free agents for the most part. A splurge is sort of possible, but unlikely, so Brad Richards ( a typical example), is RIGHT OUT. Remember, the Islanders have salary increases due THIS YEAR in the RFA contracts of Kyle Okposo, Josh Bailey, Michael Grabner, Rob Schremp, and Blake Comeau (the latter two could be let go, but I doubt it), with John Tavares getting a raise the year afterwards. And of course, there's the fact that the Isles will probably still try and sign PAP and/or Matt Moulson to longer term deals. In short, there's very little left in the budget for what will probably be multiple roster spots, and thus going much over the league minimum for a single spot is very unlikely.
Note, a small market team CAN sign such free agents when it is reaching critical mass and is about to be a contender. But the Islanders don't qualify, and thus those players are right out.
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So what do the Islanders need to do to compete for the Cup? The following:
Ensure the keeping of Young Skilled Talent such as Tavares, Okposo, and Bailey, who can be the core of a Cup Team. Do not let any young talented players go unless you absolutely have to (I'm talking Schremp and Comeau here, who while streaky, have talent and potential, which the Isles will need to maximize).
Trade away any guys approaching UFAs years who are likely to leave: this of course means Moulson and Frans Nielsen in the next two years.
Finally, develop your prospects so that you're successful in 2-3 years (We're not a cup contender next year guys, and probably not a playoff team next year). Shorter term success is less important at this point...if we fail, we get better picks, which will result in us succeeding faster.
All in all, the answer is not very satisfying....it involves us not signing bigger and better players very often, if at all, and always looking toward the future in a slow build-up. But it's very possible, and the pieces are starting to come together. Just please, don't act like the Isles should contend next year by spending more money...it's not going to happen.
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Moulson
I agree with the general premise of course, having advocated small-market-style rebuilding for quite a while (not that I know the extent of Wang’s finances in the future, but at least his status now is pretty clear).
But I’m not convinced the Islanders “failed” with Moulson. To me the risk of long-term deals is all the greater when you have a small-market mindset: You cannot afford to bet wrong at a high price. (In contrast, they have bet long at very affordable prices with Nielsen and MacDonald — affordable even by RFA terms.)
If Moulson could command $2.5M for one bridge year to UFA, what was he asking for to be extended well into his UFA years — into the period when other current (and arguably, more important in the future) players would be hitting their higher earning years? If the Isles had made a mistake there, and Moulson fell back this year, they’d risk being stuck with an overpaid winger (perhaps paying a 15-goal winger at 30-goal pricing, or whatever) and, if their budget is indeed as limited as we think, that’d be a double-whammy.
Moulson’s agent had to know this — and had the added hammer of unpredictable arbitration hanging over things — and had to be thinking about what he could make as a UFA if he duplicated last season, and thus what he’d theoretically be giving up if he offered too much of a discount to sign a long-term deal. Meanwhile, the Islanders had to be worried about extending a 25-30-goal price commitment to a player who might not be as good as he looked in Year 1.
As always, there are two sides to every negotiation, and the Islanders probably protected themselves enough to get another year of data on Moulson, which incidentally affects his trade price too if they can’t come to terms. Not an easy decision by any means, and complicated all the more by the threat of arbitration, but I thought what they did was prudent.
Lighthouse Hockey: And you shall know us by the fraying of our hips.
"Two sides" -- or rather three or four
I said “two sides” to every negotiation but I should add there are really three and sometimes four: You have the GM and agent, and then sometimes a third side is the player, who might trust his agent to do the whole thing or might insert himself when he’s worried and starts to make a quality-of-life vs. money decision. Some players stick hard to “get me market value,” while others let 1) Wife is happy here, 2) I have friends here, 3) I want to be on a contender/young riser/whatever enter into the negotiations and affect the money in ways we are never privy too.
Finally, the rarer fourth side is the owner, who can step in and overrule his GM in a worse way than even a player overruling his agent.
Lighthouse Hockey: And you shall know us by the fraying of our hips.
Failure is perhaps the wrong word
“Have Not Succeeded” is perhaps better. You won’t succeed in getting reasonable long-term deals with players who are irrational about their own worth, or whom are so confident in their own abilities as to ignore the possibility of them losing out by not signing a longer deal. In such cases it’s not a failure in the sense that the team did something wrong, but it’s not a success.
With regards to Moulson, and any player who at a not-young age (26 isn’t young in hockey terms) who “breaks out”, I think there really is a big leverage point for the team: the player cannot guarantee, due to health or just skill, that he can repeat the performance, and thus a long term deal is the best expected value. But it depends upon the player and his agent….Moulson may have felt that he could clearly repeat it and that he’d stay healthy. But if Moulson say was to get injured soon and be out for the season, well he may regret it.
Obviously this leverage point is a worry for the team also…but the team needs to take gambles, methinks.
If Moulson is healthy, and is a FA, I think the Islanders are likely to lose him. Thus if he’s healthy at the deadline…and unsigned, well they gotta move him.
Moulson is staying here. He said he likes long island, and unless garth is refusing to "give that man his money", then Moulson will sign a fair multiyear deal/extension.
And I like your article. I think the main concept for making a cup contender isn’t a formula exactly. Drafting smart helps, keeping your good young players and signing them to fair/lower offers because they are RFA helps(nielsen/a-mac comes to mind), and bringing in the missing pieces helps too. But the main thing imho, is not overpaying for a single player and finding many discounts while playing around but not at the cap ceiling, that and drafting really well makes all the difference. That not only makes you a great playoff team for a couple years, but should make you a great playoff team for many years after too. That and picking the right role players to fill out your roster makes all the difference (ex: konopka is a low cost 4th liner, but he is a top-tier faceoff guy, middleweight enforcer, agitator, p’ker, and personality. And that is why he has been in so many trade rumors, even the 4th liners can make a noticable impact on a team). If you don’t overpay for any players, you are in great shape. Look at the isles this year for example: $5million under the salary floor with yashin/witt on the books + a healthy KO/Streit and we were serious playoff bubble contenders. VERY DAMN GOOD for a team that is “really” $5mil under the salary floor and has their $4.5mil/yr goalie still playing himself back into nhl speed from his multiple leg surgeries. VERY DAMN impressive when you look at the fine print.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
Once again, I think you're overrating players.
The Islanders were projected this year, BEFORE the Okposo and Streit injuries, to still be a bottom 5 team. Not just by mainstream media idiots, but by people like PuckProspectus, who are not exactly biased and subjective about these things.
The losses of Okposo and Streit were brutal, but this wasn’t a playoff team WITH those guys.
"playoff bubble" as in 8-10 eastern seed. But yes, I am more optimistic then you.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
When I say Bottom 5, I meant NHL bottom 5
Not Eastern Conference. Edmonton at the least was with us in the bottom 5 .
Correct
The Isles are very, very far away from contending right now.
Question: should a small market team sign a butterfly goalie to a 15-year suicide pact?
Very far usually means a huge roster overhaul. Really?
Explain the roster moves we would need to make to be a contender next year? I am interested to see how messed up or far away you think the team is.
The dp contract was stupid, but it was meant to send a message. Some goalies never even play 10yrs in the nhl let alone 15yrs, so obviously it wasn’t a genius idea.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
Uh . . .
As garik explained, even with a healthy KO/Streit, this team would likely be at or near the bottom of the league. Add in the possible loss of Moulson via trade or free agency and you think this team is going to be a contender next year how exactly?
What do they need? Off the top of my head, several legitimate NHL d-men as well as legitimate top-6 scoring threats from the wings, at the very least. Probably a goalie too.
If they’re lucky, and healthy, they can probably stay near the playoff bubble for a decent portion of next season. That’s the best I can say.
We are the 3rd worst team in the league without streit/ko, so it's safe to say we'd be a bit better with them. Not at the basement, not in the playoffs. In between that is a fair assumption.
Moulson won’t be traded unless garth is an idiot.
Need:
D-men?: I don’t know. A-mac, Streit, and even Hamonic is fair to assume will be solid top 4 d-men next year. Pretty good combo there. Juice and Eaton are solid bottom 2 d-men, and very reliable defensively. Add wishart to the mix and an unknown but lately looking good hillen and we have a decent d-core when healthy. You could argue depth, but if Gervais resigns and mottau is ok, depth would be pretty solid with the people we have in the ahl, especially considering DeHaan will be there next year too if he doesn’t make the team out of camp(not likely given his size and injury problems lately). Overall I’d say we are right around league average defensively when healthy. Maybe even a tad above average when depth d-men are included. Sure we could use another solid top-4 to put us over the top there, but with all the youth in the system and players signed for next year already, we shouldn’t pursue that through anything but trade this offseason. And, “if” we draft larsson, I wouldn’t be concerned about our d-core next year or for the future at all.
More legit top 6 scoring threats: Definitely arguable. If you factor in nino coming + KO + JT + Grabner + JB maturing, all while keeping moulson in the fold, we will need less scoring then most would think the next couple years, but it is definitely a question mark of sorts going forward. And this need gets even smaller “if” we draft landeskog or maybe even couturier/rnh.
Goalie: Agreed. Best case scenario is we lock up a solid vet for a backup role behind DP this upcoming season. Poulin belongs in the minors still and a vet backup signed for next year could be golden if DP goes down for the long haul or has injury fits. Poulin shouldn’t be given the backup role out of camp for his age and maturity’s sake. WIth you there. Even with DP healthy and not missing time, we need a solid backup to play 20-25gms+ year to help us.
Fair assessment on the playoffs if we keep the team as is and don’t acquire or lose and main players/role-players.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
"Moulson won’t be traded unless garth is an idiot."
Please don’t make silly statements. It’s already known that Moulson may be on the market. If Garth gets a good offer (quite possible) and can’t get an extension mid-season, a trade is very possible and perhaps likely.
You CANNOT as a small market team ASSUME that Moulson will stay. You CANNOT afford to let him leave for nothing. If a good offer comes, Garth as a smart GM maybe obliged to take it.
Silly? Hah, you're a jokester.
Moulson said he likes long island and the islanders for giving him a chance to play at the nhl level. He pretty much said he’d want to stay here for a while if he could.
And Garth doesn’t improve the team by getting rid of a 25-30goal scorer for draft picks or a players that are years away or worse then moulson. And Garth would have to be an idiot to think that trading away a top 50 goalscorer, especially given how weak we are in that department “and” how much trouble we have attracting free agents. Unquestionably that would be garth’s stupidest move in office trading away Moulson for players that won’t even be close to peaking or probably even nhl relibale when we are a playoff team. With what Moulson has told the media not only favors the islanders as the front runners for where he plays next year, but might even give them some negotiation powers with him based on his likes for a long term contract. Garth would have to be senile to think Moulson won’t resign here if given the choice and a fair contract. Thinking otherwise would be silly given everything that Moulson has said and what the team needs.
And please, cut the small market stuff. Wang has spent in the past and will spend money again once we are a playoff team. Nobody likes spending a lot of money when their team is rebuilding(except the leafs). And to consider Long Island a small market is a funny idea.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
It depends on your definition
And to consider Long Island a small market is a funny idea.
Population-wise, income-wise, TV market-wise? No, it’s hardly small. But in terms of NHL franchises, it might as well be.
There are about five clubs that dominate NHL revenues right now, Toronto being the 800-lb. gorilla and the Rangers being a heavyweight. With how the NHL CBA and sharing of revenues works, and with how the total pool of NHL revenues determines the payroll range, that means the Islanders are very much a “small” market in terms of revenue and even maximum revenue potential in their current building. Those top five teams actually make it hard for half the league to spend much beyond the payroll floor. Because the floor keeps rising, while the range between cap and floor remains the same ($16 million).
Their revenues are limited by a lot of factors that include the team’s performance over the last several years. Their expenditures are limited by how much Wang wants to (or can afford to) lose.
Snow says he’s been told he’s not limited in expenditures — while that statement might be technically true, surely there is a condition attached to it of, “But if you want to spend X more on players, you need to be very confident it will translate into X attendance/performance/revenues.”
Lighthouse Hockey: And you shall know us by the fraying of our hips.
Agreed. Depends on definition/perspective I guess.
The Isles future looks brighter then most would think with these young core guys in place:
Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, Nielsen, Niederreiter, Grabner, MacDonald, Hamonic, and DeHaan.
With a rebuilding club like the Isles
there are too many variables for anyone to make an educated projection, too many players that could have breakout years. I’m sure we all agree that if healthy, the Isles would have been better than last year.
Certainly Garth seems to be following this formula
Just look at DP’s contract! I guess that’s my point…We take such a gamble with these “less money for more years” contracts. They’ll either make us or break us, but as garik said, it’s the only way we can build a contending roster right now. Lighthouse Project might have made us a “Big Market” club, Wang had the right idea.
DiPietro doesn't follow the formula really.
While it’s a low money deal (so not too harmful to the team), a small market wouldn’t invest in a very volatile position for such a long time unless it could be sure of the player’s skill and value. And unless you have a top 5 Goaltender who has been such for multiple years, a goalie isn’t worth it.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
