FanPost

Islanders' scoring chances at halfway-mark

The Islanders are almost there - tonight's game against the Vancouver Canucks will mark the 41st game of the season. Since no one is tracking scoring chances for the Canucks I believe - and apparently no one for the Isles -  we can now take a look at what is the Islanders' scoring-chance summary halfway through the season. At this point you might wonder where the data comes from given no one is tracking the Isles. Well, I actually just went through all the games that had been tracked by bloggers of other teams around the league and put some tables together. 

First of all, a special thanks as always to Vic Ferrari for setting up this whole project and the scripts. Then, for the data, full credit as mentioned goes to all the guys tracking chances around the league. The group includes Derek (Florida), George (Rangers), Olivier (Montreal), "Slava" (Toronto), "Knee high to a duck" (Washington), Dennis (Edmonton) and Kent (Calgary).

All games played by the Islanders against these 7 teams sum up to 13 (7 away, 6 at home) at this point for a combined record of 4-9-0 and goal differential of 34-43. The sample is at least fairly representative therefore for what the team's done overall this season, but it obviously includes only a third of their total games and that certainly has to be taken into account when looking at these numbers.

For instance, Corsi figures or any other advanced stats might tell us more about what's happened on the ice thus far this season than these scoring chances here. But since I have the data on my computer anyway, I thought it might be worth sharing them just to give a look at where the guys stand and maybe draw some attention to certain stuff or certainly the great work all the guys tracking chances have done. And as I won't be able to do any sort of more detailed analyses (WOWY, etc.) with these numbers at the end of the season I thought it might be valueable to at least have the numbers halfway through available, too, and then go from there to see maybe how certain guys have done with certain others (e.g. JT with Okposo, etc.).

In case you wonder what counts as a scoring chance, here's a definition of what the guys take into account when tracking chances (from George's Rangers summary in December).

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included, but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

 

raw data: Nielsen very impressive

Everything I'm looking at here includes all even-strength situations. Let's take a look at the raw data first. I try to highlight a few things and add context where possible, but normally the tables are straight forward of course. If you have any questions or would like to know how certain guys did in certain games, please leave a note in the comments.

Here's the summary for the forwards first and then defenders, ordered by TC%. You can see the amount of games tracked they played in (games), time on ice per game they spent in these specific games (TOI/game), total chances for (TCF), total chances against (TCA) and the percentage of total chances for (TC%).

 

 

games

TOI/game

TCF

TCA

TC%

7

Hunter

5

11.9

20

13

0.61

51

Nielsen

12

11.3

41

30

0.58

12

Bailey

10

13.3

41

37

0.53

57

Comeau

12

14.5

44

48

0.48

15

Parenteau

13

14.3

48

53

0.48

40

Grabner

11

12.5

32

42

0.43

58

Joensuu

5

13.1

16

21

0.43

91

Tavares

11

15.7

47

63

0.43

26

Moulson

13

15.4

49

74

0.40

17

Martin

9

9.7

18

32

0.36

93

Weight

6

13.8

16

32

0.33

44

Schremp

7

12.7

14

30

0.32

28

Konopka

13

8.3

15

34

0.31

16

Sim

12

10.1

13

44

0.23

25

Niederreiter

5

13.5

7

29

0.19

14

Gillies

9

2.9

0

10

0.00

  • Trent Hunter's sample is apparently very small and he played a good part of the games tracked together with Nielsen and certainly benefited there, but it's still remarkable he leads the way.
  • The true hero's got to be Frans Nielsen, though. As seen in terms of Corsi last season, he's again putting up some very impressive numbers indeed. He's outchanced the opposition despite doing some very heavy lifting indeed on an obviously rather weak team. He might not always have faced toughest competition this season, but still is among the leaders there and however certainly has had terribly tough zone starts and the toughest combination of the two of any Isles player indeed. I really wonder how many guys around the league would perform similarly under these circumstances. The surprising number for him is TOI/game. I know he's crucial on the PK as much as valuable on the PP, too, but I still think they'd be better off finding a way to get him more EV time because he certainly is their best player at even-strength indeed.
  • Judging from these numbers Rob Schremp's got to step up his game. Have to add, though, that a 2-11 game against the Rangers (when they lost 2-7) hurt his numbers here significantly. And he's had tougher zone starts than you'd expect perhaps, but still, that's not good enough. By the way, considering Blake Comeau went 2-11 in that game against the Rangers, too, his numbers look fairly healthy.
  • Jon Sim and Zenon Konopka have both had very tough zone starts and at least early on played against some tough competition, too. Not saying they've been doing great, but you'd certainly expect these two at the bottom indeed.  

 

 

games

TOI/game

TCF

TCA

TC%

27

Jurcina

10

14.0

44

46

0.49

38

Hillen

9

14.0

38

43

0.47

10

Mottau

7

15.9

28

36

0.44

24

Martinek

9

16.7

30

40

0.43

4

Eaton

12

16.7

45

61

0.42

20

Wisniewski

10

16.6

38

59

0.39

8

Gervais

5

10.8

14

25

0.36

36

Hamonic

6

16.0

16

30

0.35

47

MacDonald

9

15.9

23

46

0.33

42

Reese

3

12.0

4

8

0.33

  • The defender's numbers are tough to analyze due to all the the injuries. Most of the guys have missed a good part of the games and almost everyone has been used in pretty much every role from top-pair defender to #5-6. It however looks like Jack Hillen might have done a little better than given credit for, though then again he's perhaps had rather good D partners in relation to the competition faced.
  • Andrew MacDonald and Travis Hamonic are certainly not where you'd expect them to be. They finished 4-11 and 5-11 respectively in that game against the Rangers, but throughout had hardly any game in the plus. They've however certainly faced toughest competition and I don't think these numbers here are indicative of their play overall, though I did think their performances were overrated in some specific games.

 

chances for: Bailey and JT up there

Instead of listing the raw data, I try to put things into perspective in the following sections a little bit by taking a look at what the players either created or gave up given their ice time. Here's the numbers for each player in terms of 15 minutes of ice-time, i.e. chances for per 15 minutes of ice-time (CF/15), chances against per 15 minutes of ice-time (CA/15) and the differential (DIFF/15), ordered by CF/15. To make things easier to read you can find the same data ordered by CA/15 below.  

 

 

games

TOI/game

CF/15

CA/15

DIFF/15

7

Hunter

5

11.9

5.04

3.28

1.76

12

Bailey

10

13.3

4.62

4.17

0.45

51

Nielsen

12

11.3

4.54

3.32

1.22

91

Tavares

11

15.7

4.08

5.47

-1.39

15

Parenteau

13

14.3

3.89

4.29

-0.40

57

Comeau

12

14.5

3.78

4.13

-0.34

58

Joensuu

5

13.1

3.68

4.82

-1.15

26

Moulson

13

15.4

3.66

5.53

-1.87

40

Grabner

11

12.5

3.49

4.58

-1.09

17

Martin

9

9.7

3.09

5.49

-2.40

93

Weight

6

13.8

2.91

5.81

-2.91

44

Schremp

7

12.7

2.35

5.04

-2.69

28

Konopka

13

8.3

2.08

4.72

-2.64

16

Sim

12

10.1

1.61

5.45

-3.84

25

Niederreiter

5

13.5

1.55

6.43

-4.87

14

Gillies

9

2.9

0.00

5.73

-5.73

  • Trent Hunter not only in the lead in terms of raw data, but also in terms of chances created per 15 minutes of ice-time. It's not exclusively the shutdown hockey that makes him a valueable part of this team therefore. The same obviously goes for Frans Nielsen, who's not only their best center overall, but has indeed helped creating more chances for than any other center.  
  • While struggling a bit overall, the top-line of Moulson-JT-PA is up there in terms of chances created for. Particularly over the last few weeks they've played against really tough competition most of the nights and thus are doing fairly well overall I'd say, though clearly are not playing on the level of an NHL top-line.

 

 

games

TOI/game

CF/15

CA/15

DIFF/15

27

Jurcina

10

14.0

4.73

4.94

-0.21

38

Hillen

9

14.0

4.52

5.11

-0.59

8

Gervais

5

10.8

3.89

6.94

-3.06

10

Mottau

7

15.9

3.77

4.84

-1.08

20

Wisniewski

10

16.6

3.44

5.33

-1.90

4

Eaton

12

16.7

3.38

4.58

-1.20

24

Martinek

9

16.7

2.99

3.98

-1.00

36

Hamonic

6

16.0

2.51

4.70

-2.19

47

MacDonald

9

15.9

2.41

4.82

-2.41

42

Reese

3

12.0

1.25

2.51

-1.25

  •  Not much to add here, maybe James Wisniewski would have been expected to do a bit better in this particular category given he did get opportunities to start in the offensive zone and with scoring lines.

 

chances against: top-line struggling

As mentioned, the same data again, ordered by CA/15 this time.

 

 

games

TOI/game

CF/15

CA/15

DIFF/15

7

Hunter

5

11.9

5.04

3.28

1.76

51

Nielsen

12

11.3

4.54

3.32

1.22

57

Comeau

12

14.5

3.78

4.13

-0.34

12

Bailey

10

13.3

4.62

4.17

0.45

15

Parenteau

13

14.3

3.89

4.29

-0.40

40

Grabner

11

12.5

3.49

4.58

-1.09

28

Konopka

13

8.3

2.08

4.72

-2.64

58

Joensuu

5

13.1

3.68

4.82

-1.15

44

Schremp

7

12.7

2.35

5.04

-2.69

16

Sim

12

10.1

1.61

5.45

-3.84

91

Tavares

11

15.7

4.08

5.47

-1.39

17

Martin

9

9.7

3.09

5.49

-2.40

26

Moulson

13

15.4

3.66

5.53

-1.87

14

Gillies

9

2.9

0.00

5.73

-5.73

93

Weight

6

13.8

2.91

5.81

-2.91

25

Niederreiter

5

13.5

1.55

6.43

-4.87

  • Obviously again very impressive what kind of numbers Trent Hunter and of course Frans Nielsen have produced. Frans is playing against scoring lines most of the nights and starting in his own zone pretty often, but is only giving up a bit over 3 chances per 15 minutes of ice time opposed to over 4 or even over 5 the other forwards give up.
  • John Tavares and Matt Moulson apparently are not quite as impressive here as you'd hope them to be. As mentioned, they've played against rather tough competition lately, but on the other hand have had the most favourable zone starts and overall definitely need to improve here. PA's much further up this table because he played some games on the wing of Bailey or Nielsen early in the season, but actually also might make a statement towards those who think JT is helping him more than he's helping JT.  

 

 

games

TOI/game

CF/15

CA/15

DIFF/15

42

Reese

3

12.0

1.25

2.51

-1.25

24

Martinek

9

16.7

2.99

3.98

-1.00

4

Eaton

12

16.7

3.38

4.58

-1.20

36

Hamonic

6

16.0

2.51

4.70

-2.19

47

MacDonald

9

15.9

2.41

4.82

-2.41

10

Mottau

7

15.9

3.77

4.84

-1.08

27

Jurcina

10

14.0

4.73

4.94

-0.21

38

Hillen

9

14.0

4.52

5.11

-0.59

20

Wisniewski

10

16.6

3.44

5.33

-1.90

8

Gervais

5

10.8

3.89

6.94

-3.06

  • Radek Martinek and Mark Eaton were a pretty good pair early on. They often played against toughest competition back then and still seem to have come out realtively well. It also seems Hamonic-MacDonald have struggled a bit overall because the team struggled to create chances when they were on. The opposite is true for Jack Hillen, who's got healthy numbers overall thanks to the offense provided by the team when he was on the ice, but whose defensive numbers are disappointing.  
  • Bruno Gervais has struggled quite a bit here. But - though I do think he's just not been good enough lately - it's obviously only five games in this sample and it's certainly not been an easy season generally for him, being a healthy scratch early on and getting injured then plus often playing with either Reese or Hillen.

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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