Which Free Agent Forward is least likely back next year?
by OzzyFan on Sep 2, 2010 11:22 PM EDT
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PrintAfter this year, we are going to have a lot of free agent forwards next year. The list includes Okposo, Bailey, Moulson, Schremp, Comeau, Parenteau, Konopka, Joensuu, and Weight. Out of that list, I'm going to say that Okposo is the no question resign on that list, Weight is really old and a question mark already this season, this will be Joensuu's gone year, and Konopka and Parenteau are likely expendable or arguably, easily or more easy replaceable then true top 6 forwards. So that leads us to a smaller list of Bailey, Moulson, Schremp, amd Comeau. The whole middle of the pack young forwards on our team. I believe, this is arguably going to be an odd man out situation with one of these guys being replaced by a true top 6 forward in free agency to help our progress to a cup contender quicker. Of course, at worst one of them becomes a 3rd line forward because they don't progress and come back cheaply, bt let's say that scenario isn't an option for now. Out of the bunch whom do you think is least likely back this year after this season?
Be it because of play, age, potential, skills, position, whatever. Make your pick and then explain why.
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This is harder then I thought:
My Predictions for Each:
Schremp-shows how much of a playmaker he is this year. Has a solid 50pts+ season with loads of assits and decent all around play.
Bailey-keeps progressing. Has a great 55pts/20goals season with great all around play.
Moulson-Takes a step back. Has a 25goal/50pts season. Still a decent player though.
Comeau-Finally Breaks out. Has a 25goal/55pts season. Shows he deserves a top 6 spot.
This is a hard decision. One intangible I have though is, depensding on how much tavares matures this year will make the difference of comeau/moulson being 25goal scorers or 30goal scorers. IMO, Comeau is gone 1st because of his age and because he is more replacable as a right handed goal scoring top 6, and unless he becomes a 30goal scorer he’s the least important player on this list in my eyes, but I love the way he plays the game. It’s hard, but I think he’s first on the chopping block unless Garth think’s he can find a young and affordable 50pts+ 2nd line playmaking center that could replace schremp.
Go isles or Go home.
I think Comeau is most likely to go too.
I think he barely hung onto his job for this season with his late season burst. Bailey and Schremp are going to have to really fall considering they are former first rounders. Moulson seems to me like a Hunter type. He might not hit 30 goals again, but he is going to be someone that puts up a steady number season in and out.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Schremp has some skills that with more ice time will only improve. I can see him sticking. Moulson will get back to at least 20 goals this season and earn himself a nice 2-3 year extension. Bailey, although I think is a 3rd line player in the league, will be back due partly to his draft status. That leaves Blake, who I think has tons of skill, but just cannot put it together consistently enough to be considered a regular.
Tough to call.
There are too many unknown variables in the equation to try and make the call now.
Who plays on what lines, and in what situations? The coaching staff can EASILY tip the balance in favor of their preferred players, even without trying to do so.
How does Schremp come back from his knee injury? If he is slow to get back to where he was before the injury, it makes it an even longer step to see the improvement which would earn him a contract. (I’ve got my fingers crossed from RSH on this one.)
What about injuries this year? Does someone get hurt? Makes it a lot easier to hold onto someone if they’re coming off an injury.
Does Bailey stay on the wing and improve there, or do we get him time at center too? Where will he fit best in Gordon and Garth’s plans for continuing to develop our talent?
Without any of those questions answered, my guess is we’ll see the departure of Comeau…he can’t continue to rely on those late-season bursts to sneak him through another summer. Moulson plays a sound positional game, and as WebBard pointed out, has similarities to Hunter which are assets to the roster. Schremp seemed to have “gotten” it before his injury, so if he comes back at that level, he’s going to be a keeper, good for a bucket of assists and some “unconventional” scoring (like his GOTY). Bailey is going nowhere – I think we’re going to see him stay at wing, though.
Does anyone see Comeau as a potential deadline deal candidate, depending on where the team is at points and performance-wise?
Certainly,
if Comeau isn’t the 20-25goal scorer we are hoping for in the top 6, I can see him being traded for a guy that can do that job noticably better. Without question that crossed my mind when thinking about this. Let him walk or trade him and get something for him or which I didn’t want in this conversation, resign him as a 3rd/4th line player.
Go isles or Go home.
Moulson
He goes to contender for 1st or second rounder IF we are out of the race. Especially if he keeps some of last years scoring pace (without ridiculously overshooting last years pace) and we see some development from the kids. (Petrov, Nino, Kabanov, Martin, Joensuu).
I think having someone who CAN score is worth more then a late first rounder (taking a contender to mean the top 4-5 of each conference) or even an early second rounder who in 3-4 years might just be making the NHL.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Depends
On development and team configuration. If Niño or Martin are a better “Moulson” and you still have the Kirills and an Ullstrom and are short on stud D or goalie??? I hear you about the scoring, but 25 and 20 is still only 45. Plus a bit older and looking for another payday. It will be interesting to see how he plays. I agree with you if he is 30 and 35 though.
by Keith Quinn on Sep 3, 2010 7:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'm more with Webard on this,
Moulson is our top LW without question right now, and we lack a lot of depth at LW right now unless martin or parenteau or bailey come out of nowhere. Nino is the future guy whom will probably be our top line LW at some point, but I don’t see that being for at least a couple of years, and until then it’s be nice to have at least 1 repeat 25goal scoring left winger on our team. He’s way more important to us because of his age and ability on the team then off. For all we know, he could be a main part of our future cup team and top 6 if he repeats 25goal scoring year in and out. And the other big thing about moulson, last year was his 1st full nhl season. This could be the top of the iceberg for him. I honestly see him repeating 25goals easily, and that is enough to make him a key part of our team in 2011-2012.
Go isles or Go home.
Wow, Schremp? Really guys?
He just turned 24 over the Summer, he put up almost all his points (20ish) in his games as a center (20ish games) I’d suspect he’d get a second chance if he struggles this year before Comeau who has 3 seasons in the NHL already.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
It is a somewhat tough argument.
And people could be leaning towards comeau being a nyi draft pick, moulson being jt’s childhood hockey buddy, and bailey-being a young kid with a lot of talent whom is a more of a true center then winger(when he is big/strong enough he belongs there). I could see the reasoning, but it is also kind of a surprise he is getting this many votes.
I’d expect schremp to have a 50pts+ high assists season this year, but if he had say a 65pts season I wouldn’t be suprised. Last year was his 1st nhl season where he played more then 4games and he has amazing playmaking skills and hands which could give him the potential to be a 1st line center, or at least a 3rd line center if he never fully peaks.
Go isles or Go home.
I think you are dreamin!
Schremp is another first pik fizzle. Has the moves but lacks the drive of say a Jason Blake, who in is prime played fasr, hard , and drove the net. Schremp is a soft playing drifter who sees himself in my opinion as another Bossy. That’s obviously the opinion of the league and is why the Isles got him virtually for nothing. Think Tambellini.
Possibly dreaming, but with what schremp showed last year,
he would have made had 40pts season at center no question had he played the whole year with that style of play. He is young, but your right that we need to see him play a whole year to evaluate his worth to the team and possible future slot. But you must remember, it’s hard to replace a 50pts playmaking center at a cheap/any cost, even if he is a bit undersized and soft.
Go isles or Go home.
Counterpoint
Except Schremp has already done more than Tambellini, really. And we should probably remember that Jason Blake did mostly nothing until his age 29 season.
So I’m not sold on Schremp, but I definitely won’t rule him out at age 24.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Schremp can be worth Wins
If Schremp proves to be a competent player on the ice, along with Frans who already is, the Islanders already have one of the deadliest combos when it comes to the shootout. Love it or hate it, it’s here, and the Islanders need every point they can scrounge up.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
i wonder how long he can keep the scoring streak going
between him, Screhmp, Nielsen and possibly an improved Tavares ( dont forget that even Crosby was terrible in his rookie year in the shootout but last season he was one of if not the best shootout guy in the NHL) i dont see how we can lose a shootout honestly
In Garth we trust!
I think we could lose some,
but our shootout team does look pretty sick. Probably one of the best in the league, but I think there is probably at least 1 shootout team better out there.
Go isles or Go home.
maybe better shootout players
but not teams as a whole. Penguins have crosby and thats it really, Sharks have Pavelski and thats it, Devils have good ole Parise
Nielsen is actually one of the best shootout guys in the NHL since it began, and if parentau can continue is scoring streak hell be there too
oh yeah and i forgot to mention moulson before, he was pretty decent
In Garth we trust!
The team that came to mind when I thought about who's better,
was the devils Parise/Elias/Kovalchuk shootout team. But I might be overrating them or underrating the possibilities of Schremp and Parenteau(whom I haven’t seen in a shootout). Tavares has the ability to be a great shootout player to, he just needs to stop overthinking things in a game/shootout and just do/play as he feels and sees. Unquestionably though I’d guess we are a Top 3/4 shootout team in the nhl.
Go isles or Go home.
Forgot about Kovy
yeah with him the Devils have an all around solid shootout squad, but id take ours over that any day
In Garth we trust!
I was torn between Comeau and Schremp
I just think if Bailey migrates back to center, then Schremp loses his position and becomes trade bait. Whereas Comeau, if he sustains his progress, becomes a key piece in our thin winger corps.
But I could definitely see it going the other way (or a third way, which is all of them are back).
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Schremp is definitely more expendable because of bailey,
but what also has to go into our thought processes is the fact that comeau has been streaky and playing on a tavares line should heighten his numbers to their near top potential, especially if tavares becomes a 70-80pts+ center we all think he will become next year. Don’t overpay a player just because of the tavares factor, that’s why I believe we had a moulson dilemma this offseason. Moulson no tavares=20-25goal scorer last year, mouslon with tavares=30goal scorer. Interesting to see what they do together this year, but garth should definitely take into account the tavares factor when giving/creating forwards contracts.
Go isles or Go home.
idk bout the moulson and tavares thign
as i recall he only registered 11 points with tavares and the other 37 without him. Maybe im remembering something wrong here
Wasnt moulson the only player to have 5 or more goals assisted on by 5 or more players?
so to me that pretty much seems like he had chemistry with everyone, especially hunter who assisted on like 6 or 7 of his goals
In Garth we trust!
yes, you have it right, I’d have to check my fanpost, but Moulson had 6 Assists from 2 players (JT was one of them) and 5 Assists from 3 more. He was the only player to get 6 from more then one player along with having 5 assists from 5 players.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Indeed
Yes, the irony of Moulson’s breakout season is he did a lot of it without Tavares (and in fact Tavares may have slowed him down during JT’s long winter slump).
I hope Moulson is retained simply because he’s a solid all-around player, who doesn’t need offensive linemates to carry his weight.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
didnt he spend like 48% of his shifts with Tavares?
so if he played his best without Tavares, say he spends the majority of next season not on Tavares’ wing. Could that mean more goals this year? :D god i cant wait for this season to start.
And he does seem to at least be somewhat defensively responsible, he was only a minus 1 on the season, which is amazing compared to the other high scoring forwards (Okposo -22 Tavares -15)
In Garth we trust!
Comeau
i think comeau will be gone, i cant see him having a break out year, hes streaky and doesnt score consistintly enough to realli help the team and thats why i think he’ll be gone. look at what gordon did with tambi, he had like 7 goals in the first like 25 games, but since 3 of them came in one game gordon said he was to inconsistant
I don't get it
Schremp is good in a shoot out and had a little spurt at the end. Other than that he is smallish and plays even smaller. Lacks the drive to the net. May be a fourth liner before the season is a third over. definitely a goner next season. – I hope I’m wrong.
Deja Sean
Of all the forwards in the system, Blake may be the one on the hottest seat. I think this is where a young organization gets stifled by their own assumptions. They just let a 26 year old proven NHL forward (who may not have reached his potential) walk without even a whisper of an offer.
This is my biggest probelm with the organization right now. They seem to be putting their eggs in a basket-a-go-go that has shown nothing but holes. If Comeau doesn’t put up Moulson numbers (and I doubt he will) they will just move to the next guy in line (Petrov, Rakhshani or Kabanov)….
Blake is another player, much like Bergenhiem, who has flashed signs, but has not yet been a consistent contributor (on the scoresheet). Well… this where I really hope we don’t go backwards in terms of asset management.
If he is performing well early they may even shop him at the deadline to fill other needs.
My cup is 3/4 empty, How 'bout yours?
Rakhshani is a bit of prayer (I agree with altosax there), but the rest is a great unseen point by many
Bergenheim showed glimpses of potential for most of his career, but we gave up on him with high hopes of parenteau/martin filling in his role as a cheaper replacement 3rd liner for now. Was bergenheim a solid 3rd liner? Yes, he played a solid enough all around game and was offensively productive enough to keep a 3rd line role on a number of nhl team’s.
Did Bergenheim have potential? Yes, his last 2 injury laden years, he showed he could be a 15goal/35pts solid overall and penalty killing player in a 3rd line spot, given 2nd line minutes he could be a 18-20goal/40pts player that mult-task, but the islanders didn’t want to wait it out and see and gave up on him with hopes for younger unproven players alone to solve the problem. THIS HAS TO STOP. If the process continues like JP says it could of Petrov and Kabanov being replacements for Comeau and Bailey/schremp’s departure, then wang and garth need a new plan. We aren’t moving forward this way, we are just hoping for the best to happen with what we have and that’s not close to the best solution. NEXT YEAR OR NEAR THE TRADE DEADLINE, we need a true goal scoring top 6 to take our team to the next level. I have no problems with filling 4th line or even 1 spot on the 3rd line with young unproven talent in the future, but it has to stop if we ever want to be taken seriously. Out of our top 6 right now, 4 are young unprovens and 2(Tavares and KO) are projected superstars. A team can’t live like that and hope for playoffs and a stanley cup year in and out doing this. It needs to stop next year, or us as isles fans are going to have to pray we have a lundqvist and a few future top 2 d-men, especially shutdown ones, in our system to ever see a stanley cup final again. End of ranting, but next year, garth and wang have no reason to cup the fat of the young players off the team and sign a proven goal scoring top 6 forward and another center to replace schremp or Bailey(if he isn’t going to be a center, but he deserves more time no question) if they can’t get the job done. More non-playoff seasons are the reason we don’t have the support for a new stadium and aren’t looked upon as a real or scary team yet.
Go isles or Go home.
Rakhshani?
I may be wrong but Rakshani is another shrimp in the Isles long tradition of thinking small – he is a career AHLer if he’s lucky. Comeau is a possible top 6, but in a trade would yield at best a 2 pik.
Is it really “thinking small” though when he’s a 4th-round pick? At that point you’re working with longshots who have a narrow set of upsides.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Heh, not picking on you (just realized I tried to counterpoint two of your posts). I just think it’s a pretty open question with all of them still, and age is a factor. Comeau doesn’t always play to his size, whereas Rhett apparently plays over his size. Comeau seems to need to be a scorer to stick (Schremp definitely does), but Rhett might be an ideal grinder despite his size.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
grinder?
My definition of a grinder is a term used to describe a player who does not score much but makes up for it by going ino the corners to free up the puck and set up linemates. To do this effectively size does count. good example is Ashem. This type of player is sort after for this role. To my mind Rhett does not fill this description. and if you have a great imagination might be a Jason Blake type. in the future. I think the Isles need the M. Martin types to make our future a success.
Size helps
I think size helps, and it’s certainly preferable. But to my mind the more important factor is, “Are you going to use your body, or are you going to try to avoid traffic?” Comeau has been guilty of the latter at times; supposedly Rhett doesn’t shy from it (but we’ll see at this level, of course).
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Moulson will leave by his choice, not the teams
I fully expect Moulson to put up a decent enough year that some other team will take a shot at paying him more than the Isles are willing to.
Comeau will stick around as a third liner, which I think is his upside anyway.
I'd be Shocked
I think if he has another solid season the Islanders offer him a long term deal ala Hunters. I would be shocked if Moulson went elsewhere unless he had an awful season or the Islanders really lowballed him. How many teams around the league would have given Moulson a long term shot on their first line heading into last season? Even if he made a team out of camp he would have been buried on their 3rd or 4th line, playing way above the level of his teammates but being brought down. I think he’ll stay with the Islanders.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Moulson will stay
On the Islanders yahoo page they had a quote from and interview with him mid season where he said that hed like to play for the Islanders for the rest of his career, so unless they severely lowball him or trade him, i doubt hell be going anywhere
In Garth we trust!
"like to play for the islanders for the rest of his career"
are the words we want to hear out of a number of our players’ ears, specifically Tavares, KO, Nielsen, and probably Moulson…. FOR NOW. Still too much uncertainty and need for improvement in the other youngins.
Go isles or Go home.
KO will die an islander
and most likely due to Dom’s constant praise of him, Nielsen may become too much of a fan favorite to trade or not resign on top of his importance to the team ( i have to admit, i have a growing soft spot for The Great Dane)
Tavares im honestly not too sure about, but i have a feeling if his childhood friend Moulson stays, then so will he unless he gets a great contract offer from a great team, but by the time hell be a free agent, well probably be playoff/cup contenders anyways
In Garth we trust!
Tavares is the one I'm worried about.
Hopefully he’s a I wanna be a career 1-team guy and be known as the player that rebooted the islanders to multiple cups and back to the greatness we once were. Just imaging his name up in the rafters next to bossy, potvin, smith, and trottier should be enough. We just need to log that into his head. There are too many Tavares fans in Canada though that it scares me enough that he could return after his last contract year here and reboot the maple leafs/oilers at a homeland discount or even be the over the top player on calgary/ottawa/montreal. He’s just too good and important of a player for us to let go and if garth isn’t working on an extension with him in the offseason before or during the season of his last contract year then we have a problem.
Go isles or Go home.
if not an exntension
we could always trade him, as much as it would suck to see him go if he wont resign just get what we can out of him
In Garth we trust!
The key is to brainwash these kids early
Then move the paper in front of them: “Sign here, and everything will be okay.”
That’s why I worried about Bobby Ryan in that other FanPost: He already knows too much. (Of course, given how the Ducks at one point demoted him not because of quality but because they couldn’t afford the cap hit of his potential bonuses, I don’t blame him one bit for going all business.)
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
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