New York Islanders Preseason Preview, 2010-11: Playoffs?!
by Dominik on Sep 17, 2010 12:26 PM EDT
in New York Islanders Previews
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PrintThe tone of this preview could change drastically between now and Oct. 9. I much prefer to do an in-depth preview at the end of training camp, when roster battles are settled. But duty calls -- publishin' ain't eazy, yo -- so here goes: Our initial "pre-preseason" preview, looking back at where the Islanders came from, where they are now, and where they'll be come April.
Where They've Been: 09-10 Recap
There was a point in January where the Islanders clung to 7th place in the East. That was in the middle of a 10-5-1 run. One can argue those were the result of a watered-down East and a fortunate month, but regardless they were important: They raised expectations. They gave this young team a taste of the race after Jan. 1. By the end, injuries, depth and regression combined to put the Isles right back where they'd been the previous two seasons: Bottom five.
Still, last year felt a little different. There were signs of progress, signs that Garth Snow's prospect-hoarding is paying off, and besides, the 18-point improvement -- to 79, the same total in Ted Nolan's final year -- had the feel of a certain upward trajectory. Should this team improve further? Absolutely, and the history of teams with #1 picks is on their side.
By how much? Well it's a complicated case. Lotta ins, lotta outs, lotta what-have-yous. Lotta strands in the ol Lighthouse head, man. Luckily, we're adhering to a pretty strict, uh, pharmaceutical regimen to keep our mind limber.
What's Changed: Summer Cleaning
Part of the problem for me holding Garth Snow to the playoff aspirations he expressed last spring is that I assume they were based on the hope he'd nab one of the summer's prime defensemen free agents. That didn't happen. The fallback options were Mark Eaton, Milan Jurcina and best of all, the steal of James Wisniewski for a 3rd. That's an improvement, and real progress should be expected of young Jack Hillen and Andrew MacDonald, but collectively the upgrade may not be enough.
While every team needs to aim high -- and I'm sure Snow would still say on record that playoffs are the goal -- there's an old rebuilder's paradox here: Sure, you have to say you want the playoffs; sure, within the room as competitors you have to strive for the playoffs; but the reality is missing the playoffs at this stage is no disaster.
This team is pointed in the right direction, but players evolve at unpredictable rates. We just don't know how much better Tavares, Okposo, Blake Comeau, Josh Bailey and others will be, and if someone like Nino or Hamonic makes the team, we don't know how long it will take for them to be net positives.
- Lotta Ins: Zenon Konopka, PA Parentau, Mark Eaton, James Wisniewski, Milan Jurcina. Plus: A healthy Doug Weight, perhaps the same for Rick DiPietro.
- Lotta Outs: Richard Park (Switz.), Tim Jackman (Calgary), Freddy Meyer (Atlanta), Sean Bergenheim (Tampa Bay), Andy Sutton (trade deadline), Martin Biron (Smurfs), Jeff Tambellini (
wildernessVancouver). - Aspiring Youth: Nino Niederreiter, Travis Hamonic, Matt Martin, Jesse Joensuu, Calvin de Haan, David Ullstrom.
Is that import/export of assets an upgrade? Definitely. Is it enough to push them to the playoffs? No, not on its own. So for that to happen, the youth will need to grow on the faster end of the spectrum, and the annual injury plague will need to be passed on to their Atlantic brethren.
Training Camp Battles
We covered these last week, but here they are:
- Battles on the wings: Matt Martin vs. Jesse Joensuu vs. incumbent Jon Sim. Nino vs. hype. Parentau vs. the "next Matt Moulson?" label
- Battles on defense: Bruno Gervais and Andrew MacDonald's waiver exemption vs. up-and-comers
- Battles in goal: Roloson vs. Father Time; Rick DiPietro vs. Wounded Knee
Elephants in the Room
- So...uh, heard about the Lighthouse Project lately?
- Then where will this team be playing in 2015? And once that's decided, will spending increase, or will the Islanders be in a "wait for the venue and the new CBA" mode?
- If DiPietro should re-injure his knee or stay healthy but not regain his form...what then?
- Can Zenon really replace Richard Park's minutes, or is this where a healthy Weight factors in?
- Will the Islanders push Nino or de Haan or Hamonic into the show early? If Hamonic grabs a spot with his jaws and doesn't let go, which veteran goes?
- How long before Colin Campbell ignores a dirty hit on an Islander and then suspends Travis Hamonic for
driving while black"hitting while Islander"?
Predictions
The Islanders, through this rebuild, are trying to break out of an up-and-down cycle in the 2000s where mediocrity has been the ceiling:
| Year |
W |
L |
T/OTL |
Pts. |
| 2009-10 |
34 |
37 |
11 |
79 |
| 2008-09 |
26 |
47 |
9 |
61 |
| 2007-08 |
35 |
38 |
9 |
79 |
| 2006-07 |
40 |
30 |
12 |
92 |
| 2005-06 |
36 |
40 |
6 |
78 |
| 2003-04 |
38 |
29 |
11/4 |
91 |
WebBard covered it best a few weeks ago, breaking the playoff picture down into who's a lock, who's a "no way," and who's on the bubble. For the Islanders to make it, everything would have to break right. Discussion in that post trended increasingly toward the reality that no one really knows, because the right combo of injuries can sink all but the best teams.
For me, I figure Washington, Pittsburgh, New Jersey and Boston or Buffalo (or both?) as solid playoff spots. With Chris Pronger having an injury-delayed start, Philadelphia may be within a huge bubble of "maybe" teams like Carolina, Ottawa, Montreal -- perhaps even Tampa Bay or Atlanta and the Short Island Smurfs. Vesa-less Toronto should automatically improve, but I'm not sold on their vaunted-and-crowded defense, to say nothing of their top six.
So for me I see a few teams the Isles should clear, a few they might leap if things go well -- and a perfect storm of good Islanders' health and poor rivals' health is needed for them to make it to the top eight. It can happen, but I'm not betting on it, particularly given the difficult Atlantic Division. Too much needs to go right for it be a reality. So at this point, before a real training camp puck has been dropped, I'll say the Islanders finish in 10th in the East.
Of course, that doesn't mean I'm not hoping...
...Let's Go Islanders!
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great write up, my predictions for no...and I hope I am wrong
I especially agree that doing an in-depth preview just before camp is tough and would like to see another one done before opening night
last season the Islanders basically needed to win 5 more games to make the playoffs, can they manage that this season. That is tough, especially with basically the same core offensive team. plus the DP thing still no clearer than last opening night.
D- the additions of Wiz and Eaton to replace Sutton and Meyer is big. Many times last season right here on Lighthouse guys wanted better D and we should have that. maybe not so much better as far as playing D but I believe a little better at scoring and the PP. I see us moving to the middle of the pact this year on the PP because of the new D guys.
F- well we have mostly the same team here only losing Park and Bergy as far as guys who logged a lot of minutes. We had a horrible PK, and the scary thing is Pak was one of our best PK guys. Can the new D make a difference in what we lost on the PK there? Then the loss of Tamby, Ok he didn’t get much of a shot last season, but what he did do was help us win some Shootouts. The Isles got quite a few points during the shootouts, so now we have to win 5 more games, and have to still win games in shootouts like last season I believe we lose a couple of points there this season. I don’t see the new young guys making a difference, Nino needs a year to learn how to use his big body against big competition.
Maybe Weight comes up big, gets back to some scoring a few goals, and setting up more. then of course there is the possibility that one of our young guys fall off from last season. many times a young guy will have a tough season before becoming a consistent guy for years afterward.
Everyone and every position has to have a better season for us to make the playoffs..and I think that is asking a lot so I do not see us making them this season. Just because a couple of guys have to drop off some because it is just the law of averages.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
One thing that might make it more than 5 wins
Fair assessments, all. One other factor that could make it tougher than that is the playoff threshold was really low in the East last year. If it returns to, say, 92 points to get in, that adds another couple of wins needed.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Just a reminder for those who might jump on the fact that we got to the 7th seed last season, we were tied with 4 other teams in the 7,8,9,10 positions. Also, according to sportsclubstats, even at that time our % chance of making the playoffs was only 33%, which was as high as it got all season.
Best bet for the Islanders is for the Rangers to get the injury bug (The Queen goes down) and for the Flyers to struggle without Pronger, while Leighton/Boucher prove why they aren’t a realistic goaltending combo.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
You just had to unspin my “we were 7th one day!” PR, didn’t you. ;)
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Rule change too?
I think there is a rule change this year that in the event of a tie in standings that the SO wins get subtracted from total wins for the first tiebreaker.
by Keith Quinn on Sep 18, 2010 8:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I might be wrong, but that’s only if there’s a tie in the standings and in wins?
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Right
But given how close the standings were (downtoast game last year) and how many times we went to the SO, that could impact our chances. I would be quite happy winning earlier in the either way!
by Keith Quinn on Sep 18, 2010 10:25 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
great summary
I think they end up #12, one big reason is that they must play Philly, NYR, NYD, PITT, and Wash so many times in the schedule, even more than last year. Correct me please Dominik if I’m wrong.
Actually, the last part might be wrong — they still have the same divisional and conference schedule as last year, unless I’ve missed something.
Which reminds me, I haven’t looked at whether their Western schedule is any harder… ::scribbles on assignment notebook::
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Thanx for the correction
Dom please look below for my question
Western schedule
They play Anaheim, LA Kings and Colorado twice each.
Dallas, Phoenix, St Louis, Minnesota, Columbus and Vancouver at home.
Detroit, Calgary, Edmonton, Chicago, Nashville and San Jose away.
Not too bad, I’d say, even pretty good overall. The 5-game trip over New Year with games at Detroit, Calgary, Edmonton, Colorado and Chicago might not be a fun way to start 2011, though. However, it will be difficult to repeat last season’s record (10-6-2) against the Western teams anyway. They could honestly easily miss as much as 6-8 points out of these games in comparison to last season. But yeah, looking at the schedule and expecting some teams to underestimate the Islanders again, they could finally come close to last year’s record again.
by the way
The toughest thing about the schedule in general might be the fact that only 5 of the first 17 games are at home.
Agreed
That’s a beast of a way to start.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
12th
I should add that while I’m being hopeful saying 10th right now, I think 12th is fair. Beating a dead horse here, but I really see a big blob of teams that could finish anywhere from 6th to 13th (kind of like last year, actually).
If Pronger stays hurt and Leighton falters…if Lundqvist and/or Gaborik gets hurt and Frolov doesn’t deliver, etc. Everyone in that bubble is vulnerable to a Cam Ward-type injury or an Islanders 08-09 type of injury plague. With so many teams relying on young talent, it’s hard to guess which ones have the depth to step in and fill an injury void.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
I think we know if anything happens to Lundqvist, the Rangers are screwed. Not only is Biron not Lundqvist, but he’s not even Rollie.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
by Mark D on Sep 17, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
without Henrik
the rangers are a bottom 5 team honestly, they have 1 maybe 2 real good defencemen and a couple average ones, an offense that as of last year i would argue was worse than ours (even though we scored roughly the same amount of goals, 19% of ours didnt come from one player prone to injury)
really without their star goalie the Rangers are a crap team
In Garth we trust!
thing is
Even WITH Lundqvist and a healthy Gaborik, they missed the playoffs last season. The Isles can finish better than them right now.
The Devils, Pens, Caps, and Boston are my guesses at the top four seeds. Below that, I think Buffalo and Carolina are in, the Flyers will probably be better, and then pushing for the 8th seed, your choice of Ottawa, Tampa (if they can win a lot of 6-5 games), and the Rags.
That would leave us 11th, ahead of Montreal, Atlanta, Toronto, and Florida. I really think we can be good enough for eighth. It would take very little for any of the 8th-seed candidates to falter – a big injury, goalies underperforming, or a major jump from a couple of our guys.
82 days into my latest contract approval process
by mikb on Sep 17, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
thanx for correction
However, that still leaves them with 40 out of 82 games with very difficult opponents, whereas Wash, Carolina, Tampa, serious contenders for a play off spot play each other and also weak teams like florida and Atlanta 40 times. That is a serious differential when considering the Isles chances this season. Is there a flaw in my logic?
I think that's right
Barring an unforeseen shift (like Atlanta and TB vastly improving and Carolina continuing their rebound), the SE will have it easier, with Florida presumably being whipping boy #1.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
Lighthouse
That Lighthouse Elephant is awfully big isn’t it? And it smells too….I wish…more than anything…that we could just get some closure on this already….
Dom- Have you heard anything that could be considered an update on this front? Has Anyone heard or do they have anything that might be considered new info on this? mangano? Shinnecocks? Wang?
FB4Real
"Past Performance Is Not A Guarantee For Future Success"
by Michael C. Ryan on Sep 17, 2010 3:52 PM EDT reply actions
Zilch
Of course I’m not very connected on that front. But I haven’t heard nor read squat.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
See My FanPost...If You Build It
We Need to hear from him…..
FB4Real
"Past Performance Is Not A Guarantee For Future Success"
by Michael C. Ryan on Sep 17, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
The best place to find out news on the Light House...
For those who don’t already know, keep an eye on http://www.lettherebelighthouse.com/. Usually, if there is any news on the Lighthouse, it’ll end up there first or very shortly thereafter. Unfortunately, even that site hasn’t been updated in over a month now.
Warning: This post may cause Yashin Rashes, Spano Spasms, and Dingle Milburys.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Sep 17, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions
Funny thing was, Nick (who runs that site) was actually apologizing earlier this year for not adding content there. It’s like, no apology needed — they haven’t given you anything to talk about!
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
For the last 10 years an even GF/GA (/- exactly 16pts). Puts you in the playoffs.
The Isles were a -44 last year. Will the D stop an additional 20 goals? I think thats likely. Will the O score another 20+? not so sure. Its going to be close.
Interesting question
Which will change (for the better, hopefully) more: GA or GF?
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
GA
defense is better and with that comes slightly improved goaltending, but offensively where as we didnt really lose any high scoring guys, we didnt replace them with crap so were kinda banking on the kids all have good-great years and Paranteau being the next moulson just to fill the void, let alone improve substantially
In Garth we trust!
Looking at the numbers, I think I agree
Lots of teams around 214 GF last year, not very many around 258 GA (yikes). Team Gordon, ho!
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
only way the GF will improve
is is PA has close to moulsons year, Moulson hits his 40 goal mark, Tavares has a bit of a Stamkos. And Okposo Bailey and Comeau finally have their breakout year
In Garth we trust!
I don't think we need all of that, do we?
Say Okposo hits 25, Tavares hits 30, Comeau hits 20, even if Moulson drops to 24, etc.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
like i said before
while we didnt lose any great scorers we still lost something like 40 goals or so from last year so the kids improvement will cover that differential but itll take a little bit of luck and hockey god magic to improve over that in a significant way
In Garth we trust!
I could see that
And I’m probably not expecting a major offensive increase. But an improvement in the powerplay would probably give us a boost on its own. Depends how much the refs are calling this year though, too; you never know on that front.
Lighthouse Hockey: Trying to reconstitute the Hogue-Turgeon-Thomas line from NHL 94.
PP should improve
because of PA
i think it was in Botta’s piece about him recently where he said that Parentau was like a powerplay god in the minors, very dangerous from the half boards and (i highly doubt this was serious) some teams designed their PKs around shutting down PA
if thats the case hopefully his AHL skills transition nicely to the NHL
In Garth we trust!
we still lost something like 40 goals or so from last year
Im not sure about that. When you talk about goals lost you have to look not just at who you got rid of but who you will not have instead right from the start of the season. Its not likwe the Isles lost goal scorers and replaced them with a pile of people who socre zero points per season!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 20, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
just from forwards
there were 54 goals scored last year by forwards who will not be playing for us this year
and we replaced them with whom?
Konopka: scored 2 goals last year
Parentau: scored 3 (although he was an ahl call up, i expect around 20 goals for him)
and aside from the return of sim and hilbert, who will most likely be in BP, thats it for forwards
so thats (including my projection for parentau) 32 goals unaccounted for, just to put us where we were last year
now i think we can do a little better that that, but unless one or a couple of our players have a breakout year, i doubt well do significantly better than that
In Garth we trust!
by "players"
last year by “players”
typed that one wrong didnt mean to sound redundant
In Garth we trust!
I dont want to be a pest about it, but GP is a big factor. Shremp and Parenteau didnt play full NHL seasons, for one. Id really want to look at it player by player. I might do exactly that tomorrow. :)
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 21, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
thats why i considered PA for 20 goals
and your right about schremp, although i think hes more of a playmaker than a goalscorer i didnt factor him into what i said earlier.
i still stick to my main point that the GA will improve more than GF simply because unless the kids have breakout seasons well only do slightly better in that category, as of now it seems
Who knows, maybe Konopka will pot 15 goals, he was a good scorer in the AHL and in Juniors
In Garth we trust!
But the Islanders were somewhere around -40 or 50 in the 3rd period, so consider that some food for thought.
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Here's Some Food For Thought
the Islanders are gonna win the Stanley Cup this year!!!!!!
Why?…… Because Why Not! That’s Why……
Did anyone really think that the Tampa Rays would have been in the World Series two years ago?
We have Talent…
We have improved on Blue Line…
We have an All-Star Goaltender that will come back from the dead this year….
We have a Captain with one last good-one in him….
and our additions…..(Eaton, Jurcina, Wiz) will all stay healthy.
Harmonic…well….he’s better than could possibly imagine.
You know what we are…..we’re a 4-Seed…who knows
LETS GO ISLANDERS!!!!!!!
FB4Real
"Past Performance Is Not A Guarantee For Future Success"
by Michael C. Ryan on Sep 17, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions
How’d you predict my comment spam for the Islanders preview on Puck Daddy?
Trevor Gillies: Giving an all new meaning to "Mustache Ride"
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
What are you smoking?
I replied to your fanpost about the building. Why not be even more optimistic and have the winning 7th game in the new LH arena, finished in a special rush job, with you ,Mike giving out $100 bills to the first 18,500 fans that night!!!
10th or 11th
Which is probably the worst situation possible. No playoffs, no high draft pick, no close race to the finish adding excitement for the team and fans in the seats. It’s also an area that leads to dumb trades at the deadline (Smyth, cough).
This team doing better than the season before is never a “worst situation possible”. Thats what we WANT to see.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Sep 21, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
