2010-2011 Player stat projections
by OzzyFan on Aug 9, 2010 2:54 PM EDT
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PrintJust thought I would do some examining of what I think players should do points wise this season. I’d list minimum, maximum, and most likely for each player that has a no question starting spot imo for an 82gm season. No +/- because that’s a bit more complicated to guess. Here you go:
Forwards:
Bailey-Still very young and showed that he had good potential last year:
Mini-35pts/15goals Likely-40-45pts/20goals Max-55pts/25 goals
My guess: 48pts/22goals season
Comeau-Showed great potential at the end of last year:
Mini-38pts/17goals Likely-45pts/20goals Max-55pts/25goals
My guess:50pts/22goals
Hunter-Injuries on and off and inconsistentcy:
Mini-35pts/16goals Likely-40pts/18goals Max-52pts/25goals
My Guess:40pts/18goals
Konopka-Enforcer 4th liner:
Mini-5pts/Xgoals Likely-8-10pts/Xgoals Max-20pts/xgoals
My guess:10pts/xgoals while doing his job
Moulson-1 season wonder so far that needs to prove himself:
Mini-20goals/35-40pts Likely-25goals/45pts Max-35goals/60pts
My guess:50pts/27goals
Nielsen-Career year last year and is showing his potential:
Mini-35pts/12goals Likely-40pts/15goals Max-50pts/20goals
My guess:40pts/15goals
Okposo-high potential but overworked and has missed some chances:
Mini-50pts/20goals Likely-57pts/23goals Max-70pts/32goals
My guess:60pts/26goals
Schremp-showed a big upside last year, starting with JB + KO can help him a lot:
Mini-40pts/10goals Likely-45pts/12goals Max-60pts/20goals
My guess:48pts/14goals
Tavares-Mr.Franchise showed a ton of upside while struggling last year:
Mini-60pts/25goals Likely-65pts/30goals Max-75pts/38goals
My guess:65pts/32goals
Possibly(if given 82gms):
Pareantu: if given the time/job:
3rd line minutes: Mini-25pts/10goals Likely-30pts/12goals Max-38pts/15goals
My Guess-32pts/14goals
4th line minutes: Mini-15pts/5goals Likely-18pts/8goals Max-22pts/10goals
My guess-18pts/8goals
Matt Martin/Joensuu-Wild Cards and unknown minutes so I’m not guessing.
Nino-If given the 3rd-2nd line minutes out of camp and the job:
My guess: 25-32pts/10-15goals
D-men
Eaton-Top 4 defensive/shutdown man and is reliable in the role:
My guess:10-20pts, 15pts most likely
Hillen-Top 4 potential, offensive defenseman and plays close to it:
My guess: 20-30pts, low-mid 20’s pt wise most likely
MacDonald-Top 4 shutdown potential and will play like it:
My guess:12-25pts, ~15pts most likely
Martinek-Old top 4 shutdown d-man that probably want make half a season but plays smart and well:
My guess(if healthy):10-20pts, most likely 15pts
Streit-Top 2 d-men, solid 2-way, great offensive capabilities and he keeps on rolling in his role:
My guess: 50-65pts, mid 50’s most likely
Wisniewski-Wild card with top 2 potential and a ton of upside, I say he plays like a 2/3 d-man and puts up great offensive numbers:
My guess: 25-45pts, most likely 35pts~ but I wouldn’t be surprised if he got 40+
Jurcina-If given the starting job over one of the above d-men, unknown full potential:
My guess: 5-20pts, most likely ~12pts. But if he works with the system and plays with passion, he has the tools to be a 20pt d-man and the size to be a solid shutdown d-man. He needs more passion and better decision making though.
Goalies:
Rollie-plays well with a better d ahead of him, similar to last year:
Projected: .910 save percentage and wins a decent amount of more games then he loses.
Lawson-Solid backup that should be ok in the nhl, imo he is better then people project him as being. Should be a good backup and is very smart with great positioning.
Projected: .90X save percentage and should be around .500 in the win/loss column.
DP-Not even going there
Team goes say: 39-33-10 88pts and either barely makes the playoffs or barely misses the playoffs. 8th-10th spot projection.
What are your thoughts on the individual player’s projected stats for this year and what they will do this year?
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Good job
I think its a fair assessment. Some players will over-perform, some under-perform and others will be injured. There might be some surprise contributors that seemingly come out of nowhere like Moulson did last year. I am really looking forward to see how Bailey, Okposo and Tavares perform next year. Okposo is due for a breakout season. Bailey showed me some incredible glimpses of his potential and might have a higher ceiling than I would have originally guessed. Tavares to me will be the most interesting to watch. I see 3 possibilities for him as long as he stays healthy. He could either break out in big way; play at a similar level of production as last year while still gaining strength and figuring out how to score at the top level; or even take a step backwards in his development. Moulson will be another interesting player to keep an eye on. Can he sustain the incredable production he showed last year, or even improve on it? I can’t wait for this season to start, I’m getting really sick of watching the mets lose.
Thanks
I’m slightly optimistic imo on some and should be spot on for most (given a full 82gm season).
I agree with KO, it’s about time for him. Bailey should take it to another level next season as he showed he’s got the potential to last year. And Tavares should at worst repeat, but the kid has sky high capabilities.
Go isles or Go home.
JT is a pretty big wild-card. I wouldn’t be shocked or discouraged if JT ends up somewhere around where he finished last season. It can sometimes take a few seasons to adapt to the pace, speed and rigors of an NHL season. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see a big leap forward in his game this year. He looked like a completely different player in the last month or so of the season last year, ending the season on a very high note. He had a whole off-season to work on strength and conditioning. I think that your guess of 60-75 points is very realistic. I am hoping that we see an improvement is his consistency as his strength and conditioning improve. Last year he seemed fatigued at times and had lost a step or two. That is something that can be addressed through proper training and shouldn’t be as much of an issue this upcoming season.
by MatthewM11 on Aug 9, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
too hard to predict
injuries always seem to throw these things off. and not ones that land them on the DL, but nagging ones that they play through
I see more G for Okposo, Bailey, Schremp and JT
I see less for Moulson
Hunter, Comeau, nielsen could go either way
the rest of the team as a whole I believe get more goals.
the D should score more. Striet, Amac, and Hillen
what we get from the rest is hard to say. they aren’t playing with Crosby, or the guys in Anahiem anymore so I say their numbers are down
I think this is KO's, Frans' and JT's year
Kyle should break 65 points and 30 goals and Tavares should go 35-40-75 and I think both can make the all-star team. Frans not really in scoring but I think with a better blue line we will really see how good he is in a shutdown role.
Moulson might take a half step back and Bailey is still a year away from his breakout year because he needs some more help on the wing and needs guys like the Kirils to come up and be on his wing
Or
Nino or a demoted comeau? Just some thoughts. I like your ideas and if everything clicks this should happen. Okposo just couldn’t put the puck away last year when given the chances or he would have easily had 25+ goals/~60points. That was his major problem aside from being overworked in many roles. All very possible and hopefully occur.
Go isles or Go home.
I think chances are that Nino goes back to the Winterhawks unless he has a really strong showing in camp. Any other team Nino going back to junior is basically a given but Garth seems to favor a trial by fire approach to draft picks, like he did with Bailey in 08. So you never know. Comeau is with the big club opening night and I think has earned a spot and will only be demoted if he really struggles out of the gate. He’s a streaky player so that isn’t necessarily an unlikely scenario.
If KO and JT can put up those numbers you will have a whole lot of happy Islander fans. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Moulson take a step back, it would be asking a lot to expect him to put up 30 goals again. I think Bailey could be a breakout candidate, we saw a giant leap forward in his game last season and he was praised by Gordon for the hard work he put in to improve his game. I think its possible for him to take another big step forward. He has exceeded expectations already and his ceiling is a lot higher than most scouts had origionally predicted.
I don't blame Moulson for really any step back he might take
I think it would just be the result of a young group of forwards getting older better and stonger. I think he will get a lesser role and will be off the first power play most if not all of the year in favor of Kyle Okposo, Tavares, Schremp, or Frans. Wiz being a second point player instead of Okposo takes away a forward spot and cuts his PP time.
I agree
He really carried the offense last season and hopefully other players can step up this year and take some of the burden off of M.M.
I confess I'm stumped
I do love exercises like this, I just haven’t thought everything through yet and I go back and forth. I always end up over-projecting. When we get to the end of training camp, we can run a wide poll of what everyone projects, then we can average them out for a “community projection” and hope for the wisdom of crowds.
Since that’s mostly a cop-out by me at the moment, I’ll at least say this:
Hunter: 13 goals
Tavares: 35 goals
Okposo: 27 goals
Moulson: 24 goals
…for starters, anyway.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
Sounds like a good and fun idea
I’ll also take those guesses. Interesting that you think hunter is either going to have another declining/rough or injury-tainted year. Hunter has shown great potential over his career, just lately it’s looked like he’s fallen off the wagon a bit. I hope he becomes that 20goal scorer he once was.
Go isles or Go home.
25 actually
hard to believe that he had 25 in his first real season, makes ya wish he could play healthy for a full year and see if he can repeat. i think thatd make me smile even more than if one of the kids had a breakout season. Its always nice to see a somewhat older player regain their past form
In Garth we trust!
I'm actually fairly high on Hunter
I just think that his role is going to be more defensive, as Nielsen’s companion for a lot of minutes, and probably without much PP time, so I don’t think his offensive chances will be numerous.
I sure hope he stays healthy, too. A lot of people are disappointed with him after the rookie year, but I’ve come around to what I’d call more realistic expectations of him. I think he’s a very smart player.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
I think he’s a very smart player.
He IS a smart player, I dont know how anyone could say otherwise.
People just want the whole package all the time, and that usually isnt realistic. Most of the time a player isnt great at everything and specializes in one part of the game.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Aug 15, 2010 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
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