Your Weekend Wisniewski Recap
"It really reminds me of being in Chicago about three years ago when I was part of that young group growing up," he said. "We had a core group of young kids that didn’t know any better except going out and having a great time. ... Hopefully that’s the kind of team that I’m going to. One that just loves to hang out together."
>>New Islander James Wisniewski to the OC Register. Hopefully the "going out" part is within reason. But seriously, the young guys on the Isles do give off the vibe of a tight group. He may be a good fit.
I wasn't going to return to the Wisniewski well again, but then I remembered some dear readers are strictly M-F, 9 to 5 types who checked out before the trade news Friday night (the Islanders give up a conditional 3rd-round pick -- either theirs or Colorado's, to be determined). So here's a recap and link colossus, with some additional thoughts throughout:
First of all, lots of discussion of the deal in the FanPost by MTBVibe. (Ideal use of a FanPost, by the way. If you're going to break news in a FanPost, add some insight/opinion to the news the way MTB did -- otherwise post the news link as a FanShot.) For some initial reactions to the deal, check that post and its comments.
My initial impression is this is a great deal, value-wise: Garth Snow spent some of what he has that other GMs don't: Cap room (or "budget" room, take your pick), with an immediate defensive upgrade coming our way. Oh, and at the lovely market price of peanuts, otherwise known as a 3rd.
NOTE: Please recall this price, as well as the price fetched for Chris Campoli, the next time you channel rage that more was not acquired for two-month rentals of Billy Guerin or Andy Sutton or the non-rental of Martin Biron. It's not that I don't want more too -- it's that sometimes the market is devoid of buyers (or worse, your product has a no-trade clause that limits him to the northeast), and sometimes the only buyers are trying to do what Jules said Brett tried to do to Marsellus Wallace. We try to set this stuff in stone in the video games in our head, but reality is much more volatile.
Different Values in a Cap World
Anaheim certainly sees Wiz as overpaid at $3.25 million, but that doesn't mean the Ducks didn't want him at any price -- they'd previously offered him a four-year deal. I'm inclined to think the Blackhawks and Ducks knew what they were doing when they dumped him rather than pay him (or use him) in a role that is above his ceiling, but that doesn't mean I'm not grateful to have him bump some guys down the Isles depth chart. Those teams have salary issues at forward and D that the Isles do not have. Plus, you never know -- maybe he'll become as good as he believes he can be.
For me the key is that the Islanders are afforded a year to evaluate Wiz -- just as the Ducks had a season plus to evaluate him and determine he was not a top-pair defenseman (Arthur at Anaheim Calling notes his career year for assists had a disproportionate number of secondary assists -- playing with Scott Niedermayer, no less). If he hits his stride as a second or third pair guy, hopefully the Islanders can lock him up at a commensurate rate -- maybe hearing that from three out of three teams would be persuasive. If not, hopefully the Isles make the right decisions with the guys that can be top-pairing guys in the future. (I should probably use "top two" instead of "top pair," since the Mark Streits of the world can anchor with complementary guys like Andrew MacDonald, who is not a "top two" guy but knows how to excel next to an anchor like Streit.
More:
- If you want to know why there is a disparity in belief of how valuable our new defenseman is, check out this post at Anaheim Calling, which captures his history in Anaheim succinctly.
- Here was the reaction at Second City Hockey in March 2009, when the Hawks dealt him to the Ducks:
For me, you have to separate the idea of James Wisniewski from the reality. The Idea of Wiz is he's a head-banging, forward crashing nutcase who can join the rush with a big shot and is a tough guy. The reality is that Wiz is a smallish d-man, who's had multiple knee operations, who does have a big shot but takes forever to get it off and isn't all that accurate when he does, who's been way less physical this year and hasn't fought once. He was playing on the 3rd pair and had a tendency to be a fire drill in his own end. So you essenitally gave up a 5-6 d-man. I love the guy, but I'm not going to be writing heartbroken songs with sing-along choruses at his departure.
- Chris Botta's view of the depth chart after the trade, which he liked very much.
- Isles "dangerous?" The deal is enough to further the respect for the Isles held by one Philly fan.
- Isles blog Okposo Net feels like the trade answered their call to Garth.
- For you fantasy dorks, here is TSN's look at the implications from that end.
So Long, Warrior, Survivor of SUVs and Sharks and Surely Other Forces
Finally, unrelated (no way he was on the roster, with or without Wiz) but worth marking nonetheless: As expected, Brendan Witt was officially bought out, which means instead of paying him $3.5 million next season (at a $3 million cap hit) they will pay him $833,333 for the next two seasons. With Shawn Bates' $400k off the books, the Islanders will have Witt and Yashin collecting buyout checks during 2010-11 (and 2011-12, with Yashin going to 2012-13).
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The "secondary assist"
How often is a defenseman getting a primary assist anyway? Maybe that meant he made great outlet passes in his own zone or the neutral zone that sprang his forwards. Either way, if that assist didn’t have value, it wouldn’t be a stat and it is about 20 more secondary assists than Bruno had last year!
by Keith Quinn on Aug 2, 2010 8:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Interesting question
I wonder if it’s true (and by how much) forwards are more likely to get the primary. Seems like forwards will pick up a lot of secondarys too.
Here was the exact quote:
Wisniewski’s Primary Assists per 60 minutes was .30, but he led the corps in secondary assists per 60 at .56. Niedermayer, by comparison, was .34 and .30 respectively.So nothing to be alarmed about or anything, just something to keep in mind if someone looks at his career trend of 8, 19, 21, 27 assists and think he’s due to keep moving upward. He probably played more minutes last year than he should have, and benefited points-wise from a lot of Nieder time.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
And I wonder if this guy notices
That this puts JW total assists per 60 at .86 and SN at .64. I can’t believe the guy is complaining about what type of assist over total per 60. Seems kind of stupid, and SN had more goals…so I guess his goals per 60 were higher!!!!
by Keith Quinn on Aug 2, 2010 4:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’s a pretty innocent question though (He wasn’t complaining, just forwarding it as food for thought): Assists by their nature can be deceptive (some worthy, some not. Some brilliant, some the result of a friendly home scorekeeper). We tend to assume they all come out in the wash over time, but in cases where the suggestion is someone is “breaking out” it’s worth asking what’s behind that year’s number.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
A good amount of the time the second assist is the better play than the first
Some examples
1. Player A passes to B on the point when B scores on a deflection from C: Scoring line goal C assists B,A
2. Player A beats a man coming from his own zone and enters the offensive zone starting a tic-tac-toe play with B and C: goal C assists B,A
Just some examples it’s not what type of assists but how many and when you get them
Just some examples it’s not what type of assists but how many and when you get them
I agree with this statement, but you still have to think first assists are by percentage way more important. Second assists are handed out like candy in the NHL (doesn’t Europe still not award them at all, or has that changed?).
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
Yes but
How many guys don’t get 30. Really even if the puck hits off your ass am your teammate smacks it home, you were in a great spot. I think they are handed out pretty liberally also, (it almost seems like they think you automatically have to have 3 guys included in the scoring), but like he said, as a defenseman, it was probably that heady “first pass” that set the table.
by Keith Quinn on Aug 2, 2010 7:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
37 guys had 28+
Fine, but 37 blueliners had more assists than he did last year, and he was logging a whopping 24 minutes a game.
I’m not trying to poke holes in his game — I’m genuinely excited we have him. I’m just cautious in what to expect. Not a guy who should be getting the heavy load, is what I’m betting, but I’m open (and would be happy!) to be proven wrong.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
Scott
With guys like Neidermeier(spellcheck?) alot of times all it takes is a standard pass back to them and then they make the great play to set up a scorer so I can understand if he picked up a few secondaries where all that happend was Scott basically bouncing the puck off of him and back to himself like a brick wall… everything I’ve heard/seen out of him has been good so Im definitely excited about this move and can’t wait for the season
What I like
Is that while adding players that other teams can’t afford to keep under the cap, we aren’t taking any Albatross deals that will be killing us in 3-4 years. Eaton, Jurincia, Wisniewski, and the other FA deals are all 1-2 year contracts that will let us re-evaluate them in comparison to the prospects coming up in the system.
I say this mostly because the Philly article mentions Savard and Thomas, two players I don’t think the Isles could be less interested in (unless something major happens to both Rollie and DP) for exactly that reason.
Wheel of Location, Turn Turn Turn. Tell us the location that we will play.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Hell yes
It’s become Pavlovian to mention the Isles every time some albatross contract comes up. Yet Snow has never taken one on.
I really like how things are setting up in terms of flexibility: There are big decisions coming on KO, Bailey, JT, and they need to make the right call on how much money/term those guys are worth, and how much they’ll need to have left over.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
What I'm wondering
Is if Snow signed some of these cheap one year contracts with designs on being able to package/trade them to teams that may be in cap trouble. As noted, while they bring some experience, the actual play may not be that big of an upgrade over some of our youth. For example, what if you can pry Perry away from Anaheim in a sign and trade for Eaton, Jurcina and Comeau? Do you do it?
by Keith Quinn on Aug 2, 2010 12:07 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Interesting Idea
If you can live with a d-core of streit, a-mac, for the upgrade of 25yr old 60-70pt man that scores ~30 goals per year then yes. That would be a no question to me, but I doubt the ducks would do it. Maybe if we threw in a 4th-2nd rounder they would do it no question. Even then I’d do it. Perry could possibly help out okposo and would give us a legit 1st line goal scoring winger right away that we need. Depends on the contract money though. I’d give him ~5mil/yr for 4-5yrs (which I hear he would accept and what the ducks were going to give him), no more. Even though he brings a lot to the team, he takes a lot of penalties. I honestly don’t see us prying him away though unless they feel they have no shot at a title for at least a couple years. It’s a great idea though, with his addition I think we’d be a playoff contender no question.
Go isles or Go home.
Take full advantage
Teams with real cap issues will be forced to trade a big $ contract for probably way less than market value. Corey Perry may be a wishful thought, but how about any combo of Hunter,Comeau,Martinek,Gervais, with a pick or two to try and bring in Bieska and Hodgson from Vancouver? They will get cap relief and a little depth, while we bring in more physicality on D and a high end prospect. Maybe that’s wishful thinking too.Oh well. Keep up the good,solid,patient work, Garth.
The Devil You Know VS the Devil You Want
I’m going to play “Devil’s Advocate” here for a second…
I am okay with this signing, but I’d have been more COMFORTABLE with Sutton and/or Meyer. Here’s why.
Sutton: I’m assuming that big Andy would be willing to sign for <3.5 for 2 years, as he is still available, and he has stated he would have liked to come back. I don’t know the numbers, but just from observing the games (somebody will correct me if I’m wrong) Sutton was a solid 5-on-5 defender, who had the ability to play the puck AND the body. He was also willing to sacrifice his own body to block shots. The biggest plus to Andy Sutton was that he was SUCCESSFUL under a coach that hasn’t exactly created superstars [yet].
Meyer: Freddy Meyer seemed to flourish late last year into a solid all tool defender. He didn’t excel with any of his tools, but he brought them all to the game. It just appeared that FINALLY, after two years of watching Streit be the only guy who got the fourth foward type defender role, that Freddy began to carry the puck with confidence, distribute it well in transition and activate responsibly when the situation dictated offensive pressure.
JW “may” bring what these guys have brought in the past, he “may” combine the best parts of both, he “may” be faster, quicker and more defensively responsible than either… but we don’t know. He may get punished by the larger forwards in our division and wind up in the press box taking cooking lessons from Bruno. We know Andy is a top four guy the way the Roster looks right now, and Meyer is a third pair guy that played solid enough to stop any bleeding that might be caused with Eaton or Jurcina in a new (not so new for Jurcina) environment.
My hope is that he has an outstanding year leading to his UFA year and makes Snow think long and hard about making him a core member of this team… but I have a feeling that if he sucks, he’ll be gone, and if he has an outstanding year the Isles will look to guys like Hamonic, Katic, Donovan(?) and the UFA market next year for more “BARGAINS”.
The only re-signs we’ve had under Snow are DP, Comrie, Meyer (though waived and reacquired through waivers) Hunter, Frans and Weight. None of those guys had big dollar UFA periods to look forward to.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
Good points
This is obviously a test year for wiz and jurcina. Eaton is definitely livable, and at worst this year he ages himself to a bottom 2 d-man. I’d love to see wiz be all he can be and show what he’s got now that he isn’t going to live in anyone’s shadow or be overworked (hopefully), although he may not mind the big minutes. We’ll see, but I’m very happy with the trade and bringing over a physical presence d-man that plays with a ton of heart and has the all around tools/potential to be a no question top 4 d-man, possibly even a top 2.
Go isles or Go home.
I don't understand
Why do Isles fans keep minimizing Eaton as a D man…he has been a minutes-eating second pair D on a top tier team…he is big (in this NHL, despite the desire of many Isles fans, you don’t have to run people through the glass to use size effectively), and will be a great second pair compliment to a guy like Hillen…have people really watched him play?
Probably from rumors and reading
Eaton is a solid top 4, without a question in my mind. Will he show a lot of offense and be very phsyical? No, but he does his job very well. He’s a smart non-flashy player, very similar to martinek but without the injury problems.
Go isles or Go home.
Sutton isn’t really noted for durablity (~55 games/year the past 7 seasons). He’s 35 and had his best season. He was great while he played but there is no more upside to his play. The Isles gave him more then the got in return. I loved FMIV but there also you caught his peak, he’s a spare part and a small one at that.
The other thing about Sutton was how he was treated/reacted. I got the feeling the way the Isles treated him that he wasn’t the favorite son. Also the fact that he scrapped with a penalty called with some of the Isles in the OTT vs NYI game after he was traded seemed a bit odd.
Garth has really cleaned house as far player not signed/developed under him….Very few players were resigned from the previous GM administration
too much crystal in your balls...
there is no more upside to his play
That may be true, but if you got one more season like last season I think you’d have to be happy.
I loved FMIV but there also you caught his peak
-neostrodamus
The guy gets an opportunity to shine, and he shines… I guess he’s done.
Again… I’m okay with the signing… but this is still a BLIND LEADING THE BLIND dynamic, and in that situation when you have success you want to build from it with as little risk as possible. All three defenders (Eaton, Jurcina and JW) may excel under Gordon… and that would be terrific… but I’d think Gordon would have wanted one of the guys who “got it”, until Hillen, A-Mac, Ham-hock and deHaan are fully ready.
Really not a big deal… unless they all SUCK.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
Sutton vs. Wiz
I’m of the opinion Wiz is a better bet (younger, more mobile, more versatile) than Sutton, but you can’t bring up Sutton’s injury history without recognizing Wisniewski’s. Both of them have seen their share of the operating room (and, possibly, of Fortune’s black list, depending on your preference).
Still, I can’t escape the feeling we saw Sutton’s best last year.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
35 year old Andy had his best year 5 years ago. For the first time in his 3 year contract he almost played an entire season and threw his body around as advertised. Maybe he lasts a whole season? Maybe he scores more then 8 goals? I can’t imagine much more then we witnessed from him while he has a recent history of less
As far as FMIV loved him in his role on the Isles but if you think he’s a top-4 Dman well let me know why. He’s performed as a decent third pair without much offensive contribution, size or fear factor (aka a spare part)
I like the Wiz trade,. Just hoping he isn’t the defensive liability that I have seen him to be , having been forced to watch Ducks games out west. Not as bad as MA Bergeron, but he has made more than his share of giveaways in the D-Zone.
Can we sign Niemi to a 15 year, 67.5 million contract and declare DP medically retired to collect the insurance money? Sorry, still don’t see DP playing more than 10 games before his knees blow up again.

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