2009 NHL Draft Redo: Any changes?
by Dominik on Aug 1, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
in Islanders in Diapers
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PrintFrom his NHL Network performances, I would not say I'm enamored with Craig Button's analysis. Sometimes I can feel it, sometimes I'm left scratching my head. (Rational response: "He was an NHL GM. You're not." Rational counter-response: "He wasn't a GM for long -- he was fooled by Roman Turek (he wasn't the only one) -- and his father's NHL career no doubt helped get him into the ol' club. Just sayin'.")
That doesn't mean I'm above referencing his analysis for discussion purposes. He's a hockey guy with opinions and I respect that they're out there, respect his background. For argument's sake, it's cool that he made picks for the 2009 draft, and now a year later he's reshuffled them based on what we know (or think we know) now. I wish more draft pundits would do this, if only to demonstrate how volatile prospect stock can be. If rankings can change monthly on 17-year-olds, they're sure to change at age 18 and 19, too.
Feel free to discuss any of them, but here is where he puts the top three picks, as well as the Islanders' second pick:
| Prospect | Button's 2009 pick | 2010 Re-draft |
| John Tavares | 2 | 3 |
| Victor Hedman | 1 | 2 |
| Matt Duchene | 3 | 1 |
| Calvin de Haan | 26 | 27 |
Just as I don't get how Yahoo's Greg Wyshynski can list Victor Hedman as a "huge disappointment" in need of a bounce-back year, I don't get how Button can reshuffle the 2009 top three after the year of evidence we had.
On Draft Day people rated Hedman, Tavares and Duchene really closely, and I've seen little reason to change that today. Duchene had a slightly better year, Hedman had a slightly worse year, but none of them hit strong enough extremes to change my thinking about their long-term prospects. In fact, I can't imagine if any of the three affected teams -- even under the influence of a truth serum -- would prefer a different guy today.
Of more interest to me is the de Haan pick. That one was seen as a reach by many on draft day, and at least in Button's mind that hasn't changed. Was another team targeting de Haan to justify Snow trading up twice? We'll never know. We do know Minnesota, who traded down once because (presumably) they were happy to take Leddy, have since traded him to Chicago for the salary dump known as Cam Barker. That's not to say Leddy was a mistake -- Barker is an NHLer after all -- but rather to say things change. Constantly.
De Haan is certainly a nice player who should have at minimum a decent NHL career. (At #12, you better get at least that.) If we're lucky, he'll be something special. But as on Draft Day, it seems like the Islanders are currently higher on De Haan than many others are. The fun will be in finding out over the next decade who was right.
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Not Only But Also
If you haven't been checking the official site, they've been pumping out some decent offseason fodder this month. My favorites: Jack Hillen's offseason workout includes a healthy dose of golf ... A note on Zenon Konopka, Trevor Gillies and J.P. Parentau's shared AHL history, which may be a hint to how Konopka was signed ... Mark Eaton and Milan Jurcina on why they like Long Island, and how they see each other coming from opposite sides of the Pens-Caps rivalry.
...If you didn't see this, a nice write-up on Eric Nystrom.
...and finally, this was a great write-up on the experience of watching the late John Kordic fight, and how watching NHL fighting can both draw you in and make you feel like crap. I share a lot of the conflicted sentiments described therein.
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This Duchene over Tavares thing is a joke
He had one more point than Tavares one more. Also what did Duchen finish on his team in scoring 3rd Tavares 1st. Duchene never really drew the other teams top checking line while Hejduk and Stasnty along with Stewart who are established pros took that brunt. Tavares played with a 26 year old career AHLer and made him a 30 goal scorer, a 21 year old 2nd year player and got him to over 50 points and was 1 post turn goal away from a 20 30 season, and finally a 24 3rd year pro in need of a good goal scoring season and almost helped him get 20 in 61 games even though he never had more than 8 in similar number of games. Duchen will max out as maybe a 70 point player while Tavares can be a 40 50 90 player and if he gets more help maybe 100 points
by rockhouse15 on Aug 1, 2010 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
An even bigger joke, though, is...
…claiming Tavares made Moulson a 30-goal scorer, got Okposo over 50 points and helped Comeau getting close to 20 goals. If anything, those three, particularly Moulson and Okposo, made JT’s rookie season looking decent in terms of scoring points despite his overall game struggling quite a bit on this level at least until after the Olympic break.
In my opinion there’s no doubt Duchene had the better rookie season than JT. Whether he’ll be the better player in some years’ time, we can’t tell. And neither have I seen enough of Duchene nor do I honestly know where exactly JT’s ceiling might be, to tell who should have been picked at #1, but I think they’re so close that still anybody could be right with either JT or Duchene (or actually even Hedman) at the top of that list.
claiming Tavares made Moulson a 30-goal scorer, got Okposo over 50 points and helped Comeau getting close to 20 goals. If anything, those three, particularly Moulson and Okposo, made JT’s rookie season looking decent…
Completely disagree, if that was the case I think Moulson in particular would have been in the NHL prior to turning 26, and I certainly think he had a positive impact on Comeau. JT was the only true #1 talent we had on the team last year, he just didn’t have the stamina to keep it going. KO had a let down season either way in my opinion, he did not take the next step, I think he had little to do with JT’s successes and JT didn’t seem to make him better either, but he did benefit from the increased scoring with Moulson and JT.
JT might be the biggest talent on the team and his ceiling might be higher than anybody’s on this team, or in this draft class for that matter. But we’re talking about his rookie season here and what you describe is certainly not what actually happened on the ice. Just look at any number you like (points, Corsi, +/-, etc.), or watch the games (again), or listen to Scott Gordon.
To be clear, I wasn’t disappointed with what JT brought to the team. He certainly showed more than just glimpses of his talent and finished strong, but he also was not only inconsistent, but lacked of strength (legs, body) in general and certain parts of his game were hardly on NHL level. And he struggled a bit mentally. But hey, that’s what you’ll get from almost any rookie in this league, because the transition is just very, very tough indeed. So, it’s all cool, he’s learned a lot and will improve and hopefully exploit his potential.
But why on earth do we claim that he simply was a little tired, but his game was all good from the beginning and he made his team mates better, when the exact contrary was the case? I’m not saying all this to take a shot at JT, not at all, I like the kid, but he simply didn’t deliver quite as much as people suggest. I’m honestly shocked how little debate there was about what JT actually did last season. And I really wonder how everyone would rate the exact same season if it wasn’t the rookie season of the most recent #1 pick, but of a free agent or an undrafted kid.
And, most importantly, I find it unfair to other guys, when little value is placed on their performances just because they were not the team’s #1 picks. Unfortunately, that’s happened a lot here recently and you’ve just done it again. Yes, Moulson, Okposo and Comeau might not be as talented as JT, but particularly Moulson and Okposo were much more important and simply better players indeed last season. It might be a stretch to say the same about Comeau, but I sure wouldn’t claim JT had a positive impact on him. To me it actually looks much more like Comeau’s breakout was held back in December/January when he had to play a lot with JT, who was probably one of the least effective forwards in the whole league at that time.
This is all 100% hind-sight BS. Some fool thinking he had to write something to earn his paycheck. At this they have failed. Period.
An honest discussion on how well we did or didn’t do is done over a drink or beer and not taken seriously.
Get out of the sticks, Charles, move to Queens!! Come, Get some respect a Professional team deserves!!
by Martys301 on Aug 1, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Duchene never really drew the other teams top checking line while Hejduk and Stasnty along with Stewart who are established pros took that brunt.
Tavares rarely took the toughest minutes either remember, that was what Okposo and Nielsen generally did (just like the Galiardi-Stastny-Stewart for the Avs).
Really, as ever, this is an apples and oranges argument. They both have different skill sets yet I would be happy with either of them.
Not for JT he would still be my #1, thats not even close...
but I never liked the DeHaan pick there would have preferred us taking Kassain or Kulikov (or going one more and getting Ellis), or not trading up and waiting for DeHaan.
Kulikov sticks out for me as well
I’ll always wonder what they saw in him that gave them pause; or maybe they’d seen so much more of de Haan and knew they had a gem. Time will tell.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
But, according to mid-year THN survey of scouts (23 I believe)...
de Haan was listed 12 in a draft redo, and only Kreider was listed higher in prospect rankings from that draft (not counting those playing in NHL, including Kulikov). And, that was before his injury…so maybe Button, as a single voice, does not have as good a perspective as the numerous scouts surveyed.
by Nobody77 on Aug 1, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
so maybe Button, as a single voice, does not have as good a perspective as the numerous scouts surveyed.
Heh, you’re preaching to the choir on that one. Just saying that right now Kulikov, being in the NHL already as you noted, was the only one for whom I’ve repeatedly wondered “Well maybe this guy was better.”
But we don’t know, nobody knows, Button and the 20+ THN scouts don’t know. It’s not really fair to judge any of them at this early stage — to me the fact their stocks go up and down even after the draft underlines what vague business all this is.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
De haan
I really like him there. Although he needs to put on some weight, his overall skills are noticably better then kulikov’s. I think this so much, that I’d put a wager of money down saying that de haan will have multiple 40pt seasons in the nhl in his career. Everything I have seen and heard in scouting reports leads me to believe he is the future streit on our team, and at worst will be a 30pt d-man, at best a 60pt d-man, most likely a 40-50pt+ d-man. HE HAS all the offensive skills he needs to excel in the nhl besides size, just check videos and scouting reports if you don’t believe me. Once he has a 200lb frame like streit, watch out because he will be a big offensive force on d. You can quote that. lol
Go isles or Go home.
Nystrom Article
“I rant and rave about how great a place Long Island is, because guys have no idea what it’s like—they just see Nassau Coliseum, the Marriott and the parking lot in between, so they think that Long Island is some sort of hellhole,” he says. "I tell them how beautiful it is and they can’t believe me, so that’s why I brought my whole team over for a dinner, so they could see a little bit of Long Island and get a greater appreciation than they had. There’s no place like it.
emphasis mine. Isn’t that a damning enough statement for the Town of Hempstead? Here is a kid who grew up right round ToH, much like I did in Old Westbury, and even he thinks the area needs help….
The quote should be forwarded to Kate Murray asap.
Haha, good point. It’s amazing how pervasive this perception — and its eureka moment, when someone sees otherwise — is throughout the league.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
Who the hell is Craig Button?
A no name that wants some attention, that’s who. At least he didn’t screw up the Tavares>Duchene in the picks. Tavares IS a future franchise center, he IS a future 80pt player no question in my mind, and he IS going to be a superstar. I easily see him becoming a repeat player on the top 20 pts lists year in and out in a couple years barring injury. He will be a household name in 5 years for all nhl fans around the country. Hedman’s expectation’s and potential aren’t close to tavares’s. Hedman isn’t nearly as important to a franchise as is tavares. Hedman isn’t a franchise d-man, tavares is a franchise center. End of story. Maybe one day it will change, but look 5 years down the road and then try and make this assumption, doing it after one year is rediculous and idiotic. BUT, I see no way of this ever being true.
Tavares in my mind, will always be a better and more important player then Hedman. Think of it this way: There are plenty of hedman’s or hedman-like players in the nhl, but very few tavares’ or players with his skills and potential in the nhl. That’s enough to make tavares a no question over hedman in my mind, as simple as that.
Go isles or Go home.
I remember this article coming out before the draft
And talked about it in one of the draft threads.
Thinking JT is all that much worse then Duchene without considering teams is a joke. The Islanders had almost nothing on the team when it came to offense, and most everyone predicted the Islanders to do nothing.
I don’t get people being low on Hedman or DeHaan, it takes a few years for DMen to develop. What can you know about DeHaan after a year of being hurt?
Talking heads need something to talk about. Oh well.
Wheel of Location, Turn Turn Turn. Tell us the location that we will play.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Missing links
Wow, sorry everybody — I just realized I failed to put links to the original lists in this article. They’re in there now, in the second paragraph. (And sorry his redraft is about a month old now, I just figured it was an evergreen summer Sunday topic.)
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
With de Haan’s injury-shortened season it is no surprise they have dropped him down a bit – it’s one of the few things that it appears that scouts do consistently (‘player X is injured – so I can’t watch him as much, is this going to lead player X to fall off a cliff performance wise or be plagued by the problem’)
However, I am still happy with pretty much every selection the Isles made – with the exception perhaps of one of the 2 goalie selections – but even this is defensible to some extent if they employed a Best Player Available selection strategy for one/both of the picks.
Tavares, Hedman, Duchene… all three are going to be great players, so I wouldn’t change a thing about the way the Top 3 went down. (Every team got exactly what they needed when it was all said and done, no?) D-men always take longer to develop, so I’m a little more lenient when it comes to grading Hedman against the other two.
As for de Haan… I like him as a prospect, think he’s got potential, but I’d probably go for Kulikov if we could do it over again. I find it hard to believe that the “Russian factor” – which was overblown [in his case] to begin with – transformed him from a sure-fire Top 10 talent into an end-of-the-lottery selection. He got thrown into the fire last yr. w/Florida and put together a pretty good season for a 19 year-old. Should be a good point-producing, two-way d-man in his prime.
dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
Tavares still number one
Ben had some good points but he still has a higher ceiling than Duchene or Hedman. He is less polished than Matty D, has more to work on. Duchene might already be as good as he is going to get. We saw JT get knocked around like a ragdoll looking like a boy playing against men. he still managed 20+ goals and lead the team in scoring. Thinking about what the kid can do when he grows stronger is scary. I saw enough in his game to be really excited to watch this kid grow and develop into an elite talent. And at the end of the day, if Duchene proves to be the better player, who cares? In 1983 Detroit really wanted to draft a local kid named Pat Lafontaine. The Islanders took him 3rd and the red wings had to settle for some kid named Yzerman. Of course that kid named Yzerman turned out to be better player. But you know what? the Islanders still got a kickass player who scored a lot of goals for them. Whenever you hear about Lafontaine or his legacy is brought up, do you ever hear “yeah, he was good, but Steve Yzerman in better.”
Good points
I really like the point about tavares being ragdolled and still putting up great numbers. He really did have a rough season. A number of hits and board mashes he’s not going to see this year because of a lot of new protection. Not to mention along with this he had an up and down season and is still 19 right now. I honestly would not be surprised if Tavares threw up a 30goal 60pt season while still having gelling probelms and other things he needs to work on. Or if he found a solid line that works well and he puts up a 70pt 35goal season. The kid has a very high ceiling and scary potential. I feel if you gave him one 60pt veteran forward on that line with moulson, tavares would have put up a 60pt season or better, while still struggling lol. Think about it this way. He did help moulson, comeau, and others to a point. Did he create them fully to be that good? No, but he certainly helped a decent amount. I’m sure moulson is no question a 20goal scorer with no tavares, possibly even a 25goal guy with no tavares at center. But like most good centers, tavares helps make the players around them to be the best that they can be.
I’m predicting at least a 60pt/30 goal season from tavares next year, and that’s setting the bar pretty low for him, imho.
Go isles or Go home.
I think a 30 goal 60 point season is completely realistic. I think we see a big difference in his game this year. John Tavares had a whole lot of success in junior hockey. He came into the league last year and realized that what worked in juniors doesn’t always work in the bigger and faster NHL. I give him a lot of credit for adapting and evolving as a player. The evolution will continue and it might be a few years before he figures all the nuances needed to be an elite scoring and playmaking forward in the NHL. For all his talent he is still pretty raw, but he has a natural nose for the net that can’t be taught. As he gets bigger and stonger and learns what works at the NHL level he is going to get better and better.
He had more than a lot of success
His play in Juniors was so good he was called the next Gretzky before he was even drafted, i mean the ceiling for this kid is miles high
Gotta be ralistic though
The Ontario-obsessed media hype created an absurd ceiling though, despite the lofty OHL numbers (which were inflated because he entered early). Just looking at his profile, skills and play, hoping he’s follows Stamkos is a high (but doable) aim at this point.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
inflated or not
he was the first (and i think only) player in the OHL to break Gretzky’s goal scoring record for a 16 year old, but you are right about the hype, it seems like a lot of kids the come from junior hockey get hyped by the media or their former coaches
All the hype works against John. He had by any standards a great rookie season but being heralded as “the next Gretzky” media and fans are not going to be satisfied until he starts racking up Art Ross trophies. Realistically John might never be that good. He could be one hell of a first line center, putting up a point per game year in and year out; but its never going to live up to the heap of expectations he created for himself when he started breaking records in the OHL. One thing to keep in mind, the game has changed a lot but I think for a lot of media and fans who are 30 or older; we grew up watching a more high scoring, wide open game. I think when we evaluate players we still sometimes hold them to a standard from the time, versus comparing them to there contemporaries and peers. We are waiting for that next great player who is going to score 200 points in a season. That will never happen again. We need to remember that the game has changed and adjust our expectations accordingly
old time hockey
your right we probably will never see another 200 point season out of a player, defencemen have gotten much better in past years and the style of play isnt the same simple “just score lots of goals” formula it used to be. Even with the hype i doubt anyone actually believed that 20 years from now we would be seeing Tavares in the record books over Gretzky, so i dont think the hype is that much of a problem, i mean Lindros Crosby and Ovechkin have all been refereed to as “The Next One” at one point or another and i dont believe its have a negative effect on them
Great point. I’m not sure I completely understand your point about his numbers being inflated because he entered the league early. Are you saying that his longer time in the league than most accounts for his high numbers as a 16 and 17 year old? Couldn’t I counter that by saying that he was tearing up the league as a 14 and 15 year old when he was the youngest player in the league? His 77 points as a 14 year old I think is his most impressive achievement so far. 17 year olds who score 77 points in the OHL are likely to go pretty high in the draft. I agree 100% with you though about the Ontario media and John’s ceiling. Numbers aside, he is far from being the most skilled player. He has made up for limitations so far but its not as easy to do so in the NHL.
I’m not sure I completely understand your point about his numbers being inflated because he entered the league early. Are you saying that his longer time in the league than most accounts for his high numbers as a 16 and 17 year old? Couldn’t I counter that by saying that he was tearing up the league as a 14 and 15 year old when he was the youngest player in the league?
Sorry, yes I was referring to his career numbers and having more time in the league (four full seasons, right?) than Gretzky did. The single-season records, and at a young age (though even here his late birthday helps), really are impressive. But what I mean is the development curves vary and what he did at 14 and 15 are impressive but not as telling as how he was at 18 and how he adjusted to the NHL in his first year, which was hardly Gretzky (or Crosby, Ovechkin, etc.) like.
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
OK. Thanks for the clarification. I agree. Its also interesting to note that John really plateaued at about 15 in the OHL.. He didn’t make a huge jump as a 16 year old or in his draft year. I do believe he was nursing a wrist injury as a 16 year though, which would be why he had more assists that year and less goals. What does this tell us? Probably nothing. There isn’t much more you can you do when you are already averaging close to two points a game. By the way, of topic but I have always wondered how you quote someone in a post, like you did from my post- using the blue box. I haven’t figured out how to do that yet. Thanks Dom
Quote box
Between the subject line and the comment area of your reply box, you should see a little toolbar that has icons for Bold, Italic, Strikethrough, Quotes, Link and insert photo. The Quotes icon is how you do it — highlight the text you want quoted and then click that icon.
But always preview before you post, because sometimes the formatting will surprise you. (Also: if you don’t see that toolbar, let me know what browser you’re using.)
Lighthouse Hockey: More defensemen than we know how to spell.
In fact he broke a record set by Wayne Gretzky when he scored 72 goals as a 15 year old. That is incredible, especially in light of the fact that he was one of the youngest players in the league and was playing against some kids as old as 20. I followed John’s OHL career pretty closely and was hyped as the next great hockey player since he was 14. He can score, he has shown that at every level he’s played at. Now its about improving on strength, conditioning and balance. He is playing against bigger and faster players then ever faced in junior. The same tricks that worked on OHL defenseman and goalies won’t always work in the NHL. That was my point
Well put
The gretzky ceiling is high, throwing up 140/150pt seasons with ease like it’s nobodies business. But, me and everyone else expect tavares to be an 80pt player that scores 35goals a season without question. Realistically though, if he adds strength, conditioning, and I’d say some better skating ability, then I don’t see why we can’t make his ceiling as high as say 120pts/season, with a realistic goal then of 90-100pts/season and 45goals/season. He has it in him as long as he keeps getting better and working hard at improving his all around game/skills. When you here him in interviews, there is no question in my mind he is working towards and trying hard to become that 90-100pt player that’s an elite goal scorer in this league. Just wait and see it pan out. He is going to be great, how great we don’t know yet, but his ceiling is very high.
Go isles or Go home.
That’s a good point. We don’t know how great he can be yet and his ceiling is still very high. There is no magic formula that says if you score x points in your rookie year you will average y points in your prime. Some players come into the league more ready than others. For every Ovechkin who scored 106 points as a rookie there are a couple of Turgeons (42 pts.) or Joe Thorntons (7 pts in 55gms). Just look at Steven Stamkos.
Who cares?
John Tavares is an Islander. Most of us were very happy that we were getting a goal scorer and playmaker. The kid has worked hard. He’s played hard. He’s gotten great results in his rookie season surrounded by no super-stars… no protection… no accomplished coaching… and he just did his job and tried to meet some very lofty expectations.
He’ll be fine, and we’ll all be very proud of him. Garth Snow will not lose any sleep over making the decision, and neither should any of the fans. Just support the kid.
I’d be saying the same thing if we took MD, or VH… It looks like we may have a little MD in Nino… and a little VH in Hamonic… Who knows… who cares… October can’t come fast enough!
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
by JPinVA on Aug 2, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I am tired of the Stamkos comparisons
Let the media have their ridiculous hype- I personally dont give a shit how he measures up to Stamkos’ sophmore season. All I care about is John Tavares being John Tavares.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Aug 3, 2010 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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