Corsi WOWY, part 4: Where Freddy Meyer is better than Mark Eaton
I've been more busy than expected lately and it's been quite some time since part 3 of my Corsi WOWY series indeed, but I've found some time to put together another piece. With the Isles' season being over for more than two months, I thought it was a good idea to not exclusively look back, but also ahead the next season. Thus, I'll have a look in this part not only at the numbers of Freddy Meyer, but also at how recent addition Mark Eaton compares.
Explanations what this Corsi WOWY is all about can be found particularly in part 1 of this series. Once again, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari who delivers all the data on his great sites. As always, please comment or correct in case you find something suspicious.
As always, Corsi numbers need to be seen in context. The role of a player can affect the numbers quite a bit. Every team will have shutdown defensemen, who'll play against the stars of the opposition and will spend a lot of time in their own zone. It obviously is difficult under these circumstances to put up impressive Corsi figures. On the other hand, the 6th defender often gets sheltered as much as possible and thus might look good in terms of Corsi mainly due to playing against rather light competition in easy situations.
Freddy Meyer's role with the Islanders changed slightly over the course of the season. He wasn't among their top 4 defensemen early on, but got more responsibilities due to injuries/moves (Martinek, Witt, Sutton) and played against decent competition particularly in the last quarter of the season. Overall, he still faced rather modest competition. On the other hand, the quality of team mates he played with was rather poor and the zone starts were not very favourable. These things should be kept in mind when looking at his numbers. After all, Meyer wasn't asked to do anything extraordinary, but he didn't have just an easy life, either, and we'd expect his numbers to be decent, but not great. In fact, they are great, as you can see here. The table includes every defender with at least 100 Corsi total events (even strength, excluding empty-net situations) while being on the ice together with Freddy Meyer.
|
|
with Meyer |
without Meyer |
Corsi % |
||
|
|
Total |
Corsi % |
Total |
Corsi % |
WOWY |
|
Reese |
392 |
0.515 |
99 |
0.394 |
30.81% |
|
Streit |
141 |
0.560 |
2786 |
0.480 |
16.66% |
|
Gervais |
241 |
0.552 |
2107 |
0.473 |
16.63% |
|
Hillen |
257 |
0.533 |
1925 |
0.459 |
16.21% |
|
Kohn |
164 |
0.494 |
262 |
0.458 |
7.84% |
|
Witt |
264 |
0.458 |
761 |
0.431 |
6.34% |
|
Sutton |
198 |
0.480 |
1638 |
0.455 |
5.49% |
Reading example: Dylan Reese was on the ice together with Freedy Meyer for 392 Corsi events in total. 0.515 of these 392 (202) were in the Isles' favour (190 were against them). Reese had 99 other Corsi events in total while not being on the ice together with Meyer, whereof 0.394 (39) were in the Isles' favour (60 against). Reese's Corsi ratio therefore is 30.81 % higher with Meyer than it is without Meyer. Or simply put, he benefited a lot from being paired with Meyer.
Actually, everyone benefited from being paired with Freddy Meyer and most did so by a pretty big margin. For some, you'd surely expect that for the reasons stated above. Jack Hillen for example probably had rather easy shifts together with Meyer, but of course much tougher ones together with Sutton and he'll always look better in terms of Corsi with Meyer than with Sutton or everybody else respectively. But Reese, Kohn and probably also Streit and Sutton had the same type of shifts no matter who they were paired with and Meyer definitely deserves credit for the good numbers there.
Finally, that doesn't mean Meyer was their best defender, but these numbers certainly are quite impressive and he did his job very well indeed. After all, he helped the team much more than he hurt it.
How about Mark Eaton?
I certainly don't know the Penguins' defense that well, but from watching about 20 games last season, Eaton's role with the Pens as their 4th defender seems to be pretty obvious. Orpik, Gonchar and Letang clearly played against the toughest competition (ignore Leopold there, numbers inflated from time with Florida) and in my opinion were their best defenders indeed. Goligoski, McKee and Leopold split 3rd pair duties and Eaton as said was typically the 4th guy to complete the 2nd pair. And how did he do?
|
|
with Eaton |
without Eaton |
Corsi % |
||
|
|
Total |
Corsi % |
Total |
Corsi % |
WOWY |
|
Gonchar |
531 |
0.529 |
1345 |
0.532 |
-0.45% |
|
Goligoski |
173 |
0.514 |
1974 |
0.527 |
-2.35% |
|
Letang |
648 |
0.545 |
1842 |
0.559 |
-2.48% |
|
Engelland |
149 |
0.436 |
86 |
0.500 |
-12.75% |
|
Leopold |
105 |
0.467 |
483 |
0.586 |
-20.35% |
|
Orpik |
120 |
0.417 |
2246 |
0.527 |
-20.96% |
|
McKee |
136 |
0.346 |
1392 |
0.518 |
-33.28% |
Not very well... Actually, he hurt the numbers of every single D partner. As mentioned, these numbers need to be seen in context, because under certain circumstances even the best defender in the world could suffer from a similar picture. But Eaton as said had a quite steady role, rarely faced toughest competition and played with decent team mates. We can't tell for sure, but Gonchar, Letang and Orpik probably all even had easier shifts with Eaton than without Eaton, because not being paired with Eaton meant for them to be on the 1st D pairing and thus face toughest competition. Their numbers would surely not have been expected to be hurt by Eaton.
Definitely concerning is the fact that the numbers of everyone else were hurt by Eaton. In some way, you'd expect that, as the typical 3rd pair guy (McKee, Goligoski, Leopold, Engelland) indeed probably had tougher shifts with Eaton than with his usual 3rd pair partner. But they certainly still never played against toughest competition or in particularly difficult situations and Eaton should in sum probably have done better with them.
After all, Eaton struggled a lot when paired with lesser team mates and certainly didn't do anything particular when paired with the team's best defenders. Maybe you could give him the benefit of the doubt and say he did quite ok when paired with a top offensive defender (Gonchar, Letang). But as said, even those numbers are rather disappointing and the only defender on the Isles who could help him similarly would of course be Mark Streit.
Meyer vs. Eaton
The two played for very different teams last season and had different roles within the teams, as well. So, we certainly can't compare the raw numbers, although their roles within the teams didn't quite differ as much as you'd perhaps expect. But we can certainly say that Meyer looks much better overall in this little comparison than Eaton. The most intriguing fact might be that Meyer was pretty consistent no matter who he played with. He was able to lead the way when paired with youngsters, such as Reese particularly or also Kohn, whereas Eaton struggled quite a bit in that regard. And let's remember, Meyer/Reese was the 2nd D pair for the Islanders towards the end of the season and surely didn't have an easier life than Eaton had when paired with Goligoski & Co.
Corsi doesn't tell the whole story of course and other things might deserve a closer look, too. However, just briefly, Meyer was also more productive last season and had way more hits. And he could easily turn out to be the better penalty killer, too.
Obviously, the question for Garth Snow would not be Meyer vs. Eaton and he could still sign both indeed of course. So, it's not actually very relevant to compare these two players. But as I badly want Freddy back and could certainly have done without the signing of Eaton, I thought this might be a good way to illustrate that. To me, the only thing Eaton offers over Meyer is his name on the cup - not sure if that's worth $5 million over two years and if that makes the Islanders a better team...
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Freddy Meyer
I realize this is not an either or question but although Mark Eaton is a solid NHL player I kind of agree that I am not so sure he makes the Isles that much better.If Freddy doesn’t get re-signed(which seems more probable than not at this point)I will not be a huge fan of this decision.A couple of points on Eaton,he won the 1997 Curt Hammer Award(Most Gentlemanly Player-USHL),he’s big but doesn’t play big.Also he was a healthy scratch 14 times in the 08-09 season.One more thing to consider,the Penguins felt the need to upgrade their defense after last season by adding Martin and Michalek and we are looking to Pittsburgh for defensive help.
good point
Very true. You can see that when you look at Eaton’s report card over at Pensburgh, as well. Only 1 % of the people voting there would have wanted the Pens to sign Eaton for $2.25 million per or more. And a big majority is not unhappy he’s gone. I know the Isles need to spend to get to the floor, but come on, let’s then just give Moulson a huge contract. And as you say, Eaton probably does not even improve the team by that much, if at all. And yeah, Freddy might be small, but he plays big.
Just a thought
With 7 Dmen signed right now (Streit, Martinek, Eaton, Jurcina, Gervais, MacDonald and Hillen) and Reese/Kohn both getting tendered along with de Haan waiting in the wings and Witt always floating out there. Maybe the plan is to replace Gervais (easily our worst dman outside of Witt) with Eaton.
Going with whose on the roster right now, Streit can play with anyone (but will probably be paired with MacDonald) for the top pairing. Martinek and Hillen as the 2nd pairing, Eaton and Jurcina as the 3rd pairing. Where Eaton’s value would come in is that he’s good on the PK and might be able to eat up minutes there and give Streit some much needed time off.
This is without looking at it stats wise or considering how much Eaton is getting paid. But Streit has been in the top 3 of Ice time (along with him being the top guy for Switzerland in international play) in the league the last few years. If Eaton can give him a rest here and there on PK, then it might be worth it.
The Swiss are Coming, The Swiss are Coming!
only due to health history, the Isles are crazy to keep Martinek over Meyer
Meyer is there, he laces up the skates all the time. I hope we resign him, but it looks bleak
by Rickfansince76 on Jul 5, 2010 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions
valid points, but...
…I don’t think their plan is to replace Gervais. I’m not saying they shouldn’t, but can’t see it happen, because they probably still hope Bruno will get it done somewhen and because he offers something slightly different and could help out on the PP better than Eaton & Co. And to be honest, as long as Gervais doesn’t need to log too many/too heavy minutes, he’s not exactly as bad as most people think, I’d say. Not sure at all if a 3rd pair of Eaton/Jurcina will do much better than Gervais/Meyer…
Well, Streit was 8th in the league this year and 9th last year in terms of ice time. Sure, something like 24:30 would be better for him than 25:41, but a lot of these are PP minutes and thus not toughest minutes. Streit by the way comes in 2nd right behind Kovy in 5-on-4 TOI/60. However, giving Streit a rest is surely not a bad idea and Eaton should improve the PK a bit hopefully indeed, but not quite sure how good he really is there. Given the fact that the Pens’ PK was pretty good, he wasn’t overly impressive. He was quite good last season, close to Gonchar and Orpik, albeit against weaker competition. But he was bad two seasons ago.
Very difficult to compare because the Isles PK sucked last season, but Freddy and also Streit did quite ok indeed and could after all not be worse penalty killers than Eaton.
Great stuff, Ben
Thanks for repackaging this into a FanPost! This is good food for thought.
Was thinking about “Why Jurcina/Eaton over FMIV?” and I wonder if one of the superficial reasons was size. Eaton and Juice are both significantly bigger, and that was one of the voids Gordon and Snow cited at the end of the season. Of course it sounds like FMIV “plays bigger” than either of them…
Lighthouse Hockey: Now accepting applications for 2015.
Who says they arent signing FMIV?
I could see them picking him up last minute, or for all we know they might even have a little handhake deal but he is waiting on it to see if he gets anything better.
Besides- I see Eaton eatin Witters minutes, really… and I know he will compare favorably to Witt in these numbers.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
That'd be great if they did
But certainly it doesn’t look good for FMIV now when they have Streit-MacDonald-Hillen-Martinek-Eaton-Jurcina-Gervais, plus the AHL debutantes from last year. (Still, FMIV has shown nothing if not the ability to step directly from press box to competent bone-crusher.)
I look at the problem as how to upgrade over who finished last year, and Witt wasn’t even a factor by that point.
Lighthouse Hockey: Now accepting applications for 2015.
FMIV has shown nothing if not the ability to step directly from press box to competent bone-crusher
Yup- not to mention riding the waiver wire back and forth (and back again!)
Really, his willingness to NOT play and then to step up and play when the times get tough and the injuries mount is the reason I think it could be a possibility.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
I’m a hopin’. But seems like every time we get to this date without hearing a word about our expiring contracts, it means they’re gone. (Course, that was back when reporting was a bit more thorough…)
Lighthouse Hockey: Now accepting applications for 2015.
Our current beat writer is so bad at her job, she does not even understand to talk about any of these things.
Who knows what news is or isnt out there, since she doesnt even know to ask or talk about any of it?
Our beat writer situation is so unbelievably bad… unfortunately. :(
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 5, 2010 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Interesting, though......
…..how our beat writer situation so conveniently seems to coincide with the money-grubbing owner of that publication for which she dispenses scoops of…..the occasional news, severely limiting access to it…..
The real question IS......
…..can this team’s management demonstrate loyalty and a appreciation for same WITHOUT tendering 10-15 year contracts? Meyer should be back no matter what, especially with the gross number of injuries to the backline in 2008-2009 – the Islanders, it seems, can’t ever have too MUCH depth on defense – at least not until the next wave of backliners (Hamonic, deHaan, Donovan and possibly Ness) arrive in 2 or so years…..I suspect Bruno is being given one last opportunity to bounce back and show the optimal form they know he can…..

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