Moulson Hearing Nears: 3 Routes in NHL arbitration
by Dominik on Jul 26, 2010 9:54 AM EDT
in This, That & What-Not
198 comments
The full list of NHL players scheduled for arbitration is at the NHLPA site, but three big ones are set this week in wingers Mason Raymond (Canucks, Monday), Blake Wheeler (Bruins, Tuesday) and our very own Matt Moulson (Islanders, Tuesday).
The usual caveats apply: As a rule, both player and team generally want to avoid this take-it-or-leave-it process and reach a contract on their own. But sometimes it's the team wanting a longer term deal at a discounted salary ("discount" in the sense of commitment in exchange for less than top dollar); while the player, unable to receive bids on the open market to find his going rate, would at least like a third party's opinion on how much a just-finished good season is worth. We could reasonably speculate that's the situation with the Isles and Moulson.
Sometimes the team fears a long-term commitment to a player and would rather take its chances on a one-year deal. If that one-year deal becomes too much, they can walk away -- they weren't comfortable keeping him for the long term anyway. You can bet that was the case with Clarke MacArthur, who was awarded $2.4 million(!) after a 16 goal, 35 point, minus-16 season with Buffalo and Atlanta. The Thrashers simply walked away; MacArthur hits the free agent market, where he's unlikely to attract that figure.
Elsewhere this month, the Flyers reached an agreement with Daniel Carcillo before his hearing date hit, while the Canucks Jannik Hansen's arbitration award was billed as a "big raise" by TSN, but in reality a useful 24-year-old Dane getting a raise from a two-way deal at league minimum to his one-way $825,000 arbitration award is not that crazy.
But those represent the three possible roads for Moulson:
He and the Isles can announce an agreement before the hearing Tuesday morning; the Isles can accept his one-year award and then get another year of data on him in 2010-11 as he heads toward free agency; or -- the unlikely option in this case -- the Isles could walk away from the award, making him a free agent.
We discussed the spectrum of comparables for this very unique case when Moulson first filed, and one interesting suggestion came up in comments from HugoAgogo, who brought up Mikhail Grabovski's $2.9 million RFA deal signed a couple of years ago at age 25.
But a guy who bursts on to the scene with 30 goals in his first full season at age 26 is simply hard to peg. And in a world where arbitrators award Clarke MacArthur $2.4 million, your guess is as good as mine.
* * *
As a reminder for those playing at home, here is a basic list of what criteria can enter into an arbitration hearing and decision:
Admissible Evidence
- The player's "overall performance" including statistics in all previous seasons.
- Injuries, illnesses and the number of games played.
- The player's length of service with the team and in the NHL.
- The player's "overall contribution" to the team's success or failure.
- The player's "special qualities of leadership or public appeal."
- The performance and salary of any player alleged to be "comparable" to the player in the dispute.
- The salary cap and the state of the team's payroll.
Evidence that is Not Admissible:
- The salary and performance of a "comparable" player who signed a contract as an unrestricted free agent.
- Testimonials, video and media reports.
- The financial state of the team.
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i think a fair price is
Between 1.5 & 2 for one season to see if he is a true 30 goal scorer. Anything more walk away and go get a player with more than one year of proven results
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 10:05 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Nothing to be gained from walking away though
Really, what would they be proving and what would they be protecting themselves from by walking away? He represents a big piece of their minimal depth at LW right now, so even if he gets a windfall from the arbitrator, it’s just one year for a team that is practically counting on his salary to reach the cap floor.
He’ll definitely get over $2 million from the arbitrator. I’d bet my living wage on that.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
i think you prove that
A team that will not be spending a lot has to watch out for committing big $ to possible one hit wonders. What’s KO worth next year then? And when does dead salary affect who we resign (which is what moulsons 3 mill would become if he bombs) ?
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
One year though
Just one year. It can’t become dead salary if there is no term to it.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
because
We have not proven that we are willing to spend. So to me moulson at 3 means I’m not looking for help at the deadline just like to me Witt’s demotion meant the same last year and what if he replicates last season now he will want more than the 3 . I say prove before I pay u like a 30 goal scorer. I wish we did spend but until we do I have to see them do it before I believe they will. Note that I’m not disagreeing on what he is worth or what he will get just stating my opinion on how a low spending franchise will spend.
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 11:30 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't quite follow
Are you saying these arguments are what you believe the Islanders will use as an excuse to walk away?
On the surface, $3 million for one year for a 30-goal scorer is still nothing, even for this team. Add to it that the guy is well liked and established with the team (not to mention the buddy of its future franchise star) and walking away does not seem possible.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
There is no way they let Moulson walk. The Isles appear frugal but part of that is marquee free agents not wanting to come to franchise that is rebuilding. They were probably more aggressive in courting free agents then it has appeared, I don’t think money is the problem as much players not wanting to play here. They have the money to sign Mouslon, even overpay.
and if you want to talk about dead salary, see doug weight’s make believe money, how bettman lets snow get away with that is worse than the kovy thing
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
Interesting side topic, that…
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Ahh
The fact that they are willing to use virtual $ and buyouts (yashin) to get to the floor tells me I may be right about them walking away. I wish it wasn’t but that’s the way it goes on a budget
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 11:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But the buyouts are still cash. Money to DiPietro is still cash. You could argue just as easily that they use virtual bonus money (Weight) to reach the floor because they know Moulson is due a raise.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
oh he is due a raise
I just don’t think they are willing to give a player a 500%+ raise on a one year worth of proof
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 12:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
most teams
Use buyouts as a way to spend that cap room. We use them to get to the floor
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 12:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That's still kind of apples and oranges though
The club is on whatever internal budget they have. They’d surely prefer to spend that money on a player on the actual roster rather than a player they had to pay to go away. That is real cash going out in buyouts, each year; not fake cash like a lot of bonuses are.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Between 1.5 & 2 for one season
1.5M? I believe he will get more than that in arbitration
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
you are probably right
Seeing what Clark MacArthur got but that doesn’t mean you give it to him. We already don’t spend and snow likes to get guys on the cheap (see Franz ) I don’t think you want that precedent set for a Guy who hasn’t proven anything.
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 11:12 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
prove to me he didnt score 30 last year :-)
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
if 30 is guaranteed
Ill sign up for 3 LOL
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 12:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The EASY Button
This will be an easy process for Snow. Just take Trent Hunter with him. To me anyway, they are similar players, though Trent may have a better shot (and has better defensive instincts) Matt has bettter offensive instincts… In a vacuum I feel they’d put up similar numbers, Trent would have a better +/- and Moulson would have more points. They probably need to give Matt $2-2.5M/yr for 3 years and see how that plays out. Right now he’s their best LW option… and that, in and of itself, is sad…. and sticks a laser pointer right in the heart of my debate with Webby the other day how the team is cheating the fans by playing so far under the salary floor.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
i think this is more fitting...
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
more than a
200% to 300% raise is potentialy throwing money down the drain. As much as I liked the way he played I have to see him do it more than one year. By the way, how many of us would not take a 200% raise with an opportunity to prove we are worth more for one year. Last year he was a never was who was slated for ahler for his career and now he can prove he is a 20 to 30 goal scorer.
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 10:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Normally..
I’d agree with this. But the Islanders are not competetive in the FA market. If the stories are true they have to overpay by more than 20% to even get a call returned. If Moulson hit the FA market he’d probably get $1.5. An arbitrator could look at a somewhat inflated pay scale, and the leading goal scorer for his team, and award closer to $3M. I would say that Moulson EFFORT, and hopefully his comittement to the TEAM is worth $2M (or slightly more) to Snow.. Just look where they are if they lose him…
Bailey is the no# LW, in front of a mix of Parenteau, Martin, Joensuu and Gillies…
It really was pretty smart getting rid of Bergy.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
if he gets 3 million i say
Walk away and walk away fast. All that giving him that does is accelerate what u have to give the young guys later.
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 10:51 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
how does paying him what a 3rd party says he’s worth accelerate paying the younger guys? have they scored 30 goals? this better be about contract length instead of $ because if anything, this just goes to show the isles aren’t going to pay to keep any of these kids around for long
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
I don't think it does though
A young guy who cites Moulson can get a few responses from the club:
1) “He scored 30 goals; have you scored 30 goals?”
2) “It was an arbitration award, on a one-year deal, putting us in take-or-leave-it position, which doesn’t apply to your long-term wishes as an RFA.”
Arbitration is an odd enough environment that accepting the award should establish too firm of a precedent. Similar to Old Man Guerin’s $4.5 million salary having extenuating circumstances.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
by Dominik on Jul 26, 2010 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
but that's what i am afraid of
If you are KO’s agent you don’t ask for at least that? We both know who we would keep if its between moulson and ko. And yes I am afraid they wont spend to keep them
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 11:47 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
KO makes 1.65 i think this year, he’s yet to eclipse the 20 goal plateau, lets see if he takes a step forward, stays even, or steps backward before we worry about him breaking the bank on us… true, i think they want him here a long time, but i dont think he’s more worthy of 3M IF they give moulson 3M…
mind you, if moulson scores 30 again this year in a 1 year arbitration awarded contract, he’s going to make well over 4 mill (like 4.5-5M) as a UFA
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
if he gets 3 million i say Walk away and walk away fast.
Disagree. You dont walk away from a kid who did the very thing youre asking of all your kids. That is a terrible message to send.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Except
He is not a kid and came out of nowhere. To me nothing wrong with asking a player we gave a good opportunity, to prove himself for more than one year
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 12:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh come on.
Do you actually believe that the other rookie boys and young kids on this team do not look at Matty as an equal? He was a few months and a mere technicality away from being a flippin rookie. Dont paint him like he is some 32yo vet. He IS a kid, he is in his mid frickin 20s, this was his very first ACTUAL year in the NHL, and look what he did with it.
If you dont spend a dime on a kid like THAT because you want some kind of magic guarantee that he will do the same thing again and again and again then you are the cheapest most unrealistic sports club in the history of all sports clubs. You dont get guarantees like that. Ever. With anyone. Ever!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
He IS a kid, he is in his mid frickin 20s, this was his very first ACTUAL year in the NHL, and look what he did with it.
So true, and when you have a 26 year old who was the first 30 goal scorer for the Islanders since Jason Blake’s 40 in 06-07 I honestly don’t care how much the arbitrator awards him, you cannot walk away from that. Sure he might turn into the next Mark Parrish, but you don’t know that yet.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
a 26 year old
who never even managed to stick in the NHL before playing on the 5 from the bottom team in the NHL
a 26 year old
Who was seen as having the potential, but never the real chance to prove it until last year.
Does anyone know...
… how much money each side is asserting? I’m pretty sure a dollar amount must be submitted by both teams for consideration. Are these numbers unknown until the date of the hearing?
Warning: This post may cause Yashin Rashes, Spano Spasms, and Dingle Milburys.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jul 26, 2010 10:44 AM EDT reply actions
Unknown
They are unknown unless someone blabs, which is unusual. Two parties can negotiate all the way up to the hearing, which is why they’re unlikely to release what their submission is.
They usually do come out afterward though — not necessarily right after the hearing but right before or after the award is announced — assuming minimal news and communication standards are met. Which is a big assumption.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Ah, thanks.
I think baseball used to have those numbers out in the open. I’d read them in the paper long before the hearings started. Guess it’s different here. Coming from the land of upper- and lower-body injuries, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
Warning: This post may cause Yashin Rashes, Spano Spasms, and Dingle Milburys.
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Jul 26, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Coming from the land of upper- and lower-body injuries, I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
Sadly, yes.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
$1.5-2 million? Has Wang’s payroll cheapness brainwashed you all that badly?
Walk away if its 3 million? and replace him with who? Tavares’ World of Warcraft buddies? Its a 1year deal not a retirement deal and its not like the Isles have cap problems. If he measures up great, if not you get a better feel for his real value and pay him accordingly.
some other comparable characters if you want a UFA with comparable numbers -LOL
Lee Stempniak, G28 A20
Thomas Vanek, G28 A25
Mikael Samuelsson G30 A23
Brian Gionta G28 A18
Its also interesting what this RFA will make
Patric Hornqvist G30 A21
Agreed, Neo
And I cant help but laugh at the WOW buddy comment!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
all those guys
Have been in the league with a track record. Matt was a career call up from the ahl up to this point. Hormquist is younger. Why is it unfair to tell a guy he will be making 3 times what he made last year and if he repeats it he will get $ from us or somebody else.
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 12:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But why?
The guy definately deserves a raise. He scored 30 goals. He was a heart and soul player for this team last season. He was willing to play in the dirty spots to get goals. There is no one in the organization to replace his output. Give him his money for 1 year, and see what he can do. If he repeats, he gets a bigger payday and the organization blew it. If not, he gets a smaller payday, but he’s worth a raise. If it’s 3 million, so be it. Shame on the Isles for letting it go to arbitration. I think he’s going to get closer to what he wants than what they’re offering, and if they walk away, they’ll piss a lot of people off…again.
not saying he doesn't deserve a raise
But do you think that in your job or any other job you would get a 500% raise to a level to other workers who have a track record of producing because you produced like them for one year? And you’ve never shown that you can produce that way before? How many would kill snow if he gets 3 and he stinks
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you can’t compare sports $ to real world money, if you did the equivalent of coming in and leading your company in sales by a wide margin, you would be pissed and quit if you weren’t rewarded for it, even if you came out of nowhere and only did it that one time
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
except
He can’t leave he is rfa so why would u pay him until he proves himself
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
not this year, but wouldn’t you quit your job instantly the following year at 12:00:01 a.m. on the night your contract with them ends after the shit sandwich they just made you eat?
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
not if
They were the only company that gave me an opportunity before this. Nobody is saying he should stay at league minimum. I don’t see 200% as a shit sandwich when if the isles didn’t give him the top 6 forward op he might have been making ahl money
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 4:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
do you think that in your job or any other job you would get a 500% raise to a level to other workers who have a track record of producing because you produced like them for one year?
In my job? No. In another job? Yes. Lets take for example, professional sports.
There is no reason to be so unbelievably cheap. And there isnt ANYBODY with a lick of sense who would “kill” Garth Snow for giving a 1y 3M contract to Matt Moulson, even if he woulnd up totally sucking balls next season- which he wont. I cant believe you dont see that.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
i will politely disagree
It is still a business and one in which we don’t spend a lot and you don’t overpay for a possible one year wonder
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Except……
The Isles have to spend another 7Mil to get to the cap. Who do they spend that on? A UFA who they will “have” to spend it on to attract them here. Or pay a RFA his market value?
Speaking of market value what is the market value of a MM equivalent if you decide to walk away from the arbitration decision?
the fact that
We need to get to the floor means we should overpay him? He is rfa career ahler who played with a #1 overall pick and scored 30. He has no track record. Zero times he scored 30 in ahl so now we have to give him a lottery ticket
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:53 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Can we agree that for his production he was UNDERPAID last year? Whatever he gets for next season, this fact has to be taken into account. The reason he could be looking at a 200% increase is becasue he started at nothing.
He can’t be overpaid if he is being paid for comparable performance. He scored 30, he’s going to get paid what a 30 goal scorer gets paid in the NHL and it’ll be a one or two year deal to prove it wasn’t a fluke.
Have been in the league with a track record. Matt was a career call up from the ahl up to this point.
But that’s the whole point. This is arbitration; Moulson is a rare case: “Career call-up” probably isn’t even the right label, because he was given few call-ups previous to this season yet his AHL record was very solid.
So you take a guy at Moulson’s age and then take Stempniak: Stempniak has never had a season as impressive as Moulson just had. So while Stempniak has been in the league longer, his track record is arguably worse than Moulson’s, who it can be argued only got a real shot this past year. I’d venture arbitration is designed precisely for a guy in his situation: Late start to his NHL career, but he’s in in his athletic prime now, so offer him a route to get paid now or at least open it up to the market. The clock on his chance to earn bigger money is already ticking. In other words, don’t hold him back in the RFA-indentured-prove-it years simply because he didn’t make it to the NHL as a young pup.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
by Dominik on Jul 26, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
all good points but
I can also say career ahler who was never worthy of a one way contract that never even scored 30 at the ahl level
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Raymond re-signed for 2 years, $5.1 million
Avoids arbitration with Canucks. Link at TSN.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Yes -
Lee stemniak
Mikael Samuelsson
don’t have track records as 30G/year and they make $2.5mil
Few do, In Fact Matty Mo was tied for 19th leading scorer. Good luck trying replace that if you walk away.
A career AHL call up on a bottom feeding team scores 30? Even if he scores only 25 he’s still the top scorer, Hell if he only scores 20 he’s still #2 on the team.
Walk away if MM gets $3million? IMO that’s crazy, how cheap is to cheap then? The Isles have to still spend $7mil to get to the cap floor, never mind that almost $10 million of that space is occupied by DP and Yashin.
If the Isles walk away from paying MM $3mil the only one walking is me because its clear they will never commit to win.
Reply button is your friend! ;) -—-here———^
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
that is the meaning
Of rfa. You control your salary structure that way. Its just good business. Its bad business to say heck lets just give him more than he has proven he has done ever
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Part of the reason
Teams are so eager to avoid arbitration is that they may well get an abnormal result. As a team you point to guys you think compare favourably (see look Alexander Burrows only makes 2.5 mill and he’s scored around 30, Raymond just got 2.5 mill). The other side says hey if Wade Redden is worth 6.5 and Jeff Finger is worth 4 (yes I know these are defencemen but don’t have comparable rediculus salaries for forwards top of mind). The Isles can either roll the dice by offerring a term and wage MM will accept or roll the dice by seeing what an arbitor has to say. Either way I’d be shocked to see them let him go after he was one of the few positive things on the squad last year (despite what the media are apparently forced to say).
I could also offer a 3b option Dom as they could walk away from the Arbitration decision and still try to resign him as a FA hoping they can get him for less than the award. Given the limited amount of cap space out there for most teams maybe they still get lucky.
thank you
We all like Matt but that doesn’t mean he should break the bank in arbitration
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:32 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The point to make here is that
You think an example of a 3M 1Y deal is “breaking the bank” and Ive honestly never heard of such a thing.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at Jason Blake
The guy ‘came out of nowhere’ to score 25 goals, after previously scoring 8 as his career high. Then he follows it up with 22, 28, 40, 15, 25, 16. He scored 25 at age 29, then continued to have a decent career. Now, I don’t know how much money he made, but he is precedent that a guy can come out of nowhere and become a scorer. It’s not unheard of, it can happen. I don’t expect Matty Mo to pot 30 a year, but if he can pot 20, be a mentor to our young superstar, and be a quality and well-liked guy in the locker room, I’ll take it.
As far as youg kids are concerned, let them prove they can score 20, forget 30 goals before they ask for a raise. KO, Bails, etc need to score before they should ask for any raise.
right now
Blake is making tons of$ because of that obvious high mark of 40. Ask Toronto how that worked out. But at least he was ufa not rfa
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Blake is a completely different case than Moulson. He was 33 when he left and signed with a Toronto team desperate for a goal scorer. Moulson is seven years younger than Blake after 06-07 and is also a completely different player than Blake. You’re comparing apples to a half-eaten, moldy oranges.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really
Thats the advantage of UFA vs RFA. Blake at least was an NHL player before he got big $ Matt has not been able to proove that he is an NHL player yet.
No, really.
Their situations have absolutely nothing in common other than they both scored a surprising number of goals for the Islanders. Nothing else is comparable.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I will politely disagree
He is an RFA coming of his first ever season in the NHL who outdid his carrer avg in the AHL. Why shouldnt he have to prove that he is more than a one hit wonder before he gets paid like a 30 goal scorer.
FYI
Consistent 30G scorers do BETTER than alleged 3M 1y contracts.
If he got that he WOULDNT be getting the deal of a proven 30G scorer.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh my god.
Please reread that.
If he got this alleged 3M deal, YOU are the one complaining he would be getting paid like a proven 30G scorer without (IYO) proving it. Im telling you that a proven 30G scorer gets a better deal than that, so the entire notion that he would be getting paid like a proven 30G scorer if he got that deal is flawed.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
You still dont get it. We can all talk to you about this but you will jam your fingers in your proverbial ears and LALALALALALA! your way through this. In your mind, 3M is “BIG MONEY” and all the reasonable responses we can collecively muster are not going to change your perception. Youre not here to discuss anything, you already know it and that mind of yours aint changing.
Congrats.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He is an RFA
who made league minmum not a UFA with a history of being in the league.. Again with the insults. I will politely decline to hit back no reason for me, I dont know you as a person. on one hand one year of record on the other hand a carrer of not scoring and not making the NHL. But I will leave it at that with you thank you for the discourse.
You think Im “insulting” you by pointing out that there is absolutely no way you are open to even considering any other opinion in this topic other than what youve already decided is so? That is not an insult, it is an observation. If you dont like the observation, then please look back at how you are presenting yourself and your opinions.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Except
I have not called anybody an idiot or called him absolutely wrong because their opinions differ from mine. Ive made my point you have yours thank you for the discourse.
For your information, nobody here called you an idiot, either. Look back and see for yourself if you dont believe me.
But yes, there are people who think you are wrong, and they said so.
If you think theres something wrong with THAT you really are missing th ball on the whole discussion concept.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions
for every point i have been given
I made a counterpoint. If you go back to the beginning you will read that I said you may be right and he gets that much but I didn’t believe he deserved it and said why. Thankfully others engaged in conversation and even said I might have a point. At no point did I imply any of you were idiots or "absolutely wrong " or trying to piss me off like with the Miro comment but in the future I will decline to bother you. My apologies
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 4:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You think that Miro comment was made “to piss you off”????? Holy SHIT.
Dom, Webbard, please explain to this person what a “joke” is. Im done.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
From Wikiepdia
A joke is a short story or ironic depiction of a situation communicated with the intent of being humorous. These jokes will normally have a punchline that will end the sentence to make it humorous. A joke can also be a single phrase or statement that employs sarcasm.
Wheel of Location, Turn Turn Turn. Tell us the location that we will play.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
by WebBard on Jul 27, 2010 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly.
$3 million salary is the salary of a guy who has approached 30 goals or maybe even hit it before. Guys who bank 30 goals every year bring in serious bank.
I’m not entirely sure what we’re arguing about here, but I think it has to do with whether $3 million for one year is a lot, and it’s generally not. Moulson is unique in that his NHL track record is brief; he’s also unique in that record includes a 30-goal season.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
by Dominik on Jul 26, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
His record includes
1 30 goal season and a carrer as an AHLer. 500% raises are merited by that? Lets see if Wang and Snow (who are cheap) will pay that
Again, that is what is unique about the arbitration process. If he gets it and the Isles match, it’s not the same as paying an RFA that, nor the same as pulling a UFA off the market.
“500% raise” on its own is deceptive because it’s starting from a basement salary position.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Which is the age and circumstances that give you the chance to cash in via arbitration.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Can you agree that
you have a good case for him getting a big raise, but that there is a case for not and that there is a risk? He may get it, Heck Clark Macarthur got a huge raise. Will we pay it? when does Snow walk away?
That was my point all along
He has a case for a big raise, but there is a risk to simply awarding him a big raise long-term. That’s probably why they are where they are.
MacArthur is a case of the arbitrator gone to the drink, but a comparably absurd award would be giving Moulson $5 million or something, which I doubt will happen. Moulson at $3 million is not analogous to MacArthur at $2.4.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
The rate for 30-goal scorers
Check out this list of players who have scored 30 goals more than once since the lockout. At the top are guys who have done it a lot; at the bottom are guys who have done it only once.
Now look at the level most of those players make, both as RFAs and UFAs. A $3 million rate is not what consistent 30-goal scorers make — those guys make nearly twice that. $3 million is not crazy for a guy in an arbitration situation. If he bombs and scores 14, his next salary will likely be lower; if he surprises and surpasses 30, his next salary will be higher.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
by Dominik on Jul 26, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's the point!
He’s a rare case; there essentially are know direct comparables — that doesn’t mean you pretend 30 goals did not happen. You can’t rest solely on the fact he’s never done it before any more than his camp could rest solely on the guess that 2009-10 means he will do it every year afterward. Thus there is probably a middle ground the arbitrator will pick (if they don’t work out a long-term compromise).
It’s unknown what his future production will be. That’s why he’s headed to arbitration — which is incidentally, different than simply being an RFA without arbitration rights.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
I dont think its unfair
To ask him to go in the middle and prove it. He may be the most interesting case this year.
I don't find it unfair either
But I do figure this is why they don’t have an agreement yet. They’re somewhere in that negotiating mating dance between “We’ll give you long-term love for less, else you’ll have to prove it to earn more” and “I want you guys, I do, but pay me for what I did or maybe next year someone else will.”
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
UFA starts at 27 doesn’t it?
If that’s the case its probably all about that since the UFA payday is only a year away. This whole arbitration thing is probably academic compared to that
Good point
I wonder if Snow asked for 2 years arbitration case instead of 1 (Im pretty sure you can ask for 2, but may be wrong)
Yep, you can ask for 2
I think you can only walk away if you asked for 1 though.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Strike that
Sorry, I was wrong: You can ask for 2, but if the first-year salary is below the league average, the player can void the second year and become a free agent. The whole list of conditions isn’t suited for this comment box…
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
it’s a non factor, do you know that manny malhotra went from 700k to 2.5M this year, UFA i know, but he had 14g and 33points!
dubinsky took slats to the brink before agreeing to 1.7+2=1.85 cap hit after 2 years of 14/26=40 and 13/28=41
he’s going to be awarded more than them in arbitration
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
What would you call last year then?
He played a full NHL season and scored 30 goals.
What more do you want from him?
He’s proven he can score at the highest level, he has proven over the course of four pro season he can stay healthy and play full hockey seasons. I would even argue that his track record of being healthy in the AHL is much more impressive than playing 82 games this past season with the fewer amenities and long bus travel down on the farm.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever dude. You’re entitled to your opinions just as long as you realize you’re probably wrong.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
wrong about?
him getting big $? We will see. Wrong about he deserves it. His carrer stas bear me out.
Dude, seriously stop… You can’t take a bloody joke and now you’re really just out to provoke myslef, TMC and the others rather than have a meaningful discussion
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Provoke on what?
Here is my case for not giving him a 500% raise
1. carrer ahler before last year
2. never scored 30 goals before as a pro.
3. first time making the NHL
4. his stats came down towards the end of the season after a hot start.
all anyboidy has told me is that he scored 30. but its ok I will politely decline to get into an insult war and thank you for the discourse.
I’m sure those are the very points Wang’s crack contract team is planning on using.
But I’m guessing Wang will step in and screw it up something like I don’t want any Phish fanatic/surfer dude working for me
On a more serious note. He did go to Cornell (I don’t think its really a hockey power but might be wrong) which probably stunted/shifted his peak years into a later age.
LOL
I like to call him the Geico caveman.
Good point. but in contract talks I think that saying I went to an Ivy league school doesnt fly. I hope and pray we have found a 30 goal scorer for the next decade. And I hope he and his family are very wealthy for it. I just dont agree that on his first shot at the apple he should get paid. Specially with our owner and how he has us on a budget.
I’m not saying its an asset or excuse for contract purposes. I’m surmising that if MM had gone to a hockey power school or right to the AHL he might have hit the NHL at an earlier age then 26 .
He’s a top6 30 goal scoring forward 3 seasons removed from Cornell. I don’t get the feeling that going to Cornell was the best thing for NHL hockey development (but like I said might be wrong)
my biggest thing
Is that we are obviously on a budget. If we overpay somewhere we will have less in some other places. If this wa Toronto Id say screw it. We havent shown we wil spend to the cap so I got to think we will play hardball.
neologizer
Cornell has a really good hockey program, but you are right, NCAA hockey players come up later because they usually play four years in College. Then they usually go to the AHL because NCAA hockey seasons are so short, they need to get acclimated to the longer season.
BTW, why the hating on phish fans? JK, kind of…
One for one
What a bum!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Please, % increase means nothing. He got paid nearly nothing last season as a tryout (500 times almost nothing is stil cheap). He made the team and is now going to get paid for his performance. The Islanders took a chance last year and got his services cheap, fair bargain for both sides.
Now Matt Moulson has never scored less than 30 goals in a full NHL season. He’s going to get a single season deal to prove that he can do it again, but this time at the going rate for what he has done. No track record, no long term deal, but you still pay for performance.
by Hockey1919 on Jul 26, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thats what happens
When you havent made the NHL and youre 26. He is RFA which menas he technically is in the teams control. When he has the hammer (UFA) he can get what he believes is fair.
Like Neologizer said you have to consider his time playing in college when you look at his age. Most players who opt for college instead of playing major junior hockey have a longer route to the NHL. They stay and get there degrees. And like TMC and hockey1919 have said the 500% means nothing. 3 million is not a ridiculous salary given what Matt Moulson has said so far.
Scored 50 goals
Wheel of Location, Turn Turn Turn. Tell us the location that we will play.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
Put him on a line
With Zetterberg or Crosby an the guy scores 40+ with a +/- of +20. Pay him what it takes to keep him. He’s also one of the least boring interviews in the NHL. If we don’t sign him, we do not get compensation right? (Picks). While everyone is complaining about signing the kids RFA deals coming up, remember that if they’re really worth it, and someone else picks them up, there will be compensation. Does anyone know how that works? (is it Moulson’s age that prohibits us from compensation or does it depend on someone signing a player to an offer sheet first? This is all very confusing!
by quin8722 on Jul 26, 2010 1:19 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
He is rfa im sure
He would like 6 million but I’m not overpaying because he gives a good interview
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
But I think
There is a difference in either RFA by age or by time in AHL or something that makes him different from what KO and JT will be in a fee years. Also, I think you may be the only person who wouldn’t pay for a “good interview” +30 goals, a “hard work/feel good” story, role model, media deflector, locker room presence, good friend of the “franchise player” arguable “team MVP” and from what it sounds like, good guy/friend of most of his teammates…especially for only one year while you sit 7-10 mil below the cap floor. Not to mention the message it would send to the UFAs we have a hard time attracting anyway. Is this Mike Milbury? Dom, why did you let him in here, probably offer webbard and Hans and franz for Larry Brooks and a mail cork at the NY post!
by quin8722 on Jul 26, 2010 1:38 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
And you are Sather
Throwing big money at people who dont deserve it yet. Are you his cousin, agent?. Note you started with the insults first
Dont you see? Its in your mind that a 3M 1Y contract is “BIG MONEY”
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
“Nothing” my ass lol!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I will not comment on anybodys butt
but in your worl all you have to do to earn a 500% raise in the NHL is have one good year even if before that you were considered a carrer AHL callup
and in YOUR world a kid scoring THIRTY GOALS in the best league in the world is “nothing”!!!!!!!!!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You need some perspective
on how many guys are paid what you think of as “BIG MONEY” who have done it NEVER.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
May not agree with all your points but they are the best ones against giving MM a good payday. Maybe Wang shoulda hired you handle the Yashin/DP contracts;)
If you bring up the 500% again my head will explode. Explain why he doesn’t deserve 3 mil without bringing up the raise.
by MatthewM11 on Jul 26, 2010 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If I was Sather
I’d wait till he was way past his prime, trade 2 of my blue chip asdets for him, an offer him a long term deal at max salary. You sir, would make a Swedish goaltender cry!
by quin8722 on Jul 26, 2010 2:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Also,
Just fun debate…sorry for hurt feelings…email/blog posts don’t translate well to having fun sometimes!
by quin8722 on Jul 26, 2010 2:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh NOW youre ragging on Miro, too?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
What do you think the chance MM scores 20+ next year? 50%? 70%?
what is the market value of such an individual?
I would venture to guess its alot more then 3million.
if he scores 30 again
Fantastic. He hit the jackpot he will have proven himself. Most rfa have to give up salary for security and never get paid like Ufa
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
so garth can hit the jackpot and get 30 goals out of the kid, but the kid cant get the jackpot for his efforts? i can’t stress enough how near league average 3 mil is going into the next season, my HORRIBLE offer of 15/4 pays him less than avery, it’s STILL not even fair, but he would take it
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
Not as an RFA
That is the whole point of RFA. If he was UFA let the market dictate. Right now he hasnt proven anything besides last year.
Right now he hasnt proven anything besides last year.
LMAO. Yeah! Right now he hasnt proven anything!
Other than what he already proved in the only frickin chance he was ever even given.
Other than that, no proof!
LOL!!!!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I could not have put that better myself
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
then he gets
another chance this year at a reasonable rate which is inline with the risk that he may be a one year wonder. If he repeats we will have nochoice but to pay up
As if he really would want to re-sign with an ungrateful cheap ass org like that? No player would.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
WRONG
FYI he could have signed with a number of organizations.
He chose the Isles because of JT.
Where did you get this crazy idea that he was the Tambellini of the LA Kings?
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 26, 2010 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
i can’t stress enough how near league average 3 mil is going into the next season
Just some quick numbers on this point. The Islanders were actually third from bottom in median player salary (Not taking into account bonuses, buyouts, ect. Just pure player salary) this past year with an average of $887,500 above the Lightning and Ducks. The highest team was the Hurricanes and Devils with 2.5 Mil. Most teams were in the 1 Mil to 2 mil range with 6 over 2 mil and 5 under.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 26, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
nothing wrong with 15 over 4 years even if he falls flat, because someone will take him off your hands if it starts to go bad, he’s a mucker, and lots of teams are mucker lovers
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
horrible
Nobody will take someone who just proved he was a one hit wonder and basically is a ahler
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 1:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
you’re sadly out of touch with the reality in the nhl, if he were to get his arbitration money of 2.5 mil (about average nhl salary) and he put up 30 goals again, then he’s getting a 4-5 year deal for $5.5-6M per, and WE aren’t paying that
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
I will politely disagree with you
and say youre the one out of touch if you think we should give him 4 for 15 mill based on a carrer year as a 26 year old carrer AHLer one year proof.
I can't believe there's any sort of argument here
The Islanders will sign him to anything he should get next season. Also, for that matter, the Islanders/Garth Snow isn’t going to give up on Moulson if he has one bad season. Will I be worried if Moulson gets a 3 million for 4 year deal? No, because we aren’t going to be anywhere near the cap till almost the end of that deal. Also given that he’s 26, the reality is that he shouldn’t decline in talent due to age. I’msure even if he struggles he’s still one of the better players on the Islanders.
The Islanders are one of the few teams who can afford to take a chance on Moulson and overpay him. From everything I’ve heard the Islanders attempted to get plenty of top UFA talent, but even overpaying them wasn’t enough to dissuade them from going to championship caliber teams. To believe that the Islanders suddenly wouldn’t pay one of their own no matter how overpriced is just crazy.
Wheel of Location, Turn Turn Turn. Tell us the location that we will play.
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
by WebBard on Jul 26, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
What determines the RFA Arbitration date?
Does anyone know how the dates are assigned? I don’t want to slog through the CBA if someone already knows the asnwer. Seems like it isn’t great if you go early since it doesn’t leave a lot of time before arbitration to settle any contract differences.
On the flip side, it gets the numbers out of the way early if you are a team struggling with the cap. Is it pure luck of the draw or do both sides propose a date on that as well?
Luck of the draw
Literally. First they flip a coin to see whether the League or the NHLPA gets to start assigning dates, and then they proceed from there. I am not making this up.
The only conditions are things like keeping a team, or an agent, from having to do two hearings on the same day.
…and yes, it seems like where you fall in order would be a huge matter both for a cap-pushing team and a player who might end up back on the market after his team walks away.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Pros and Cons
Cons
I have to agree that 15 mil for 4 years would be way out of whack. I agree with Lostsin44 that we don’t want to overpay based on such a small sample size. Moulson may well have benefitted tremendously from playing with some of the top players on the squad and being put in positions to succeed. Will he perform at that level when someone supplants him as one of the top wingers? Can he still get his points as other teams start to focus on him? In sports there are plenty of guys who have a great year and then vanish. MM is also around the age where athletes tend to peak so we’ll see if he sustains his performance.
Pros
This guy scored 30 goals for one of the worst teams in the NHL (kiss my a$$ Garth, I said it and you can go ahead and try to fire me). This squad was quite possibly a hot goalie and a 30 goal scorer away from drafting first over all this season. If he can put up 30 goals for this undersized, inexperienced, underfunded squad imagine what he can do as they improve. 30 goal scorers are fairly rare and 30 goal scorers that actually know what the ice in their defensive zone looks like are darn near the stuff of fairy tales. The guy showed that he can finish and be positive in the dressing room. Pay the man.
At the end of the day I suspect they try to reach something short term that works for both. If they can’t the Isles will pay what the Arbitor awards and piss and moan about it because they need to reach the cap floor. They will also fire anyone who says anything positive about Molson prior to or after the decision is reached and anyone who says anything remotely negative about Isles despite having the lowest payroll for active players in the league.
my counterpoint to “out of whack” would be, that you are buying out his UFA years, where if does put up 30 goals again next year, well, now you got a 6M player for 3.75 and look pretty shrewd
at 3.75M per, you need 20goals to say it’s not a waste of money, avery makes 4M a year to keep things in perspective…
personally, i’ll admit that’s a bit of a reach, 4 years, but in order to get him thru age 30, you need that, and that price is about as fair from BOTH SIDES as you can go i think at this point
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
nice
I agree that buying his Ufa years us worth something but he is coming from the very bottom. Its risky. Were not the Yankees we can’t buy our mistakes away
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 4:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I see your logic...
but think as they improve his role shifts and his bargaining position is comprimised. I think Snow knows he needs to keep him happy for a few years, as he does not have any proven options and is probably three years away from having 2 top six-like LW’s develop through the system (most likely Nino and Bailey at this point). That doesn’t mean that Moulson is without value. Around $7M for 3 years makes him tradeable on the potential he showed as a top 6, plus affordable if one, or both of multiple other options develop faster than expected.
Scenarios:
1. Moulson waits out arbitration:
a. he wins… $2.5M this year… $3 M is absurd, but they’ll pay it.
b. he loses.. Islanders get a bargain year @ 1.2-1.7M..
Either way they try to negotiate the next two years out before the midpoint of the season.
2. The go 3 years between 7 and 9M.. much closer to 7. If nothing else it’s less money they don’t pay anybody (Weight incentives) that is hidden under the cap floor.
3. Wang gets involved and they give him $5M for 25 years.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
on the train home i was thinking that there’s a good chance this is a mutual agreement, to go to arbitration, that the case is so unique that they both are willing to get the 3rd party evaluation before they take the next step, it’s something i hadn’t considered before but now i think it’s exactly what is going on
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
by bob l on Jul 27, 2010 8:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Trent Hunter
I still think that trent Hunter should be the model here.
After 07-08 Trent was given $2M/yr for 5 years. I believe he was 27 at the time and coming off of a 3 year run with 25, 16 and 20 goals. More than that he proved he could play. If the Isles get 91 goals out of Matt Moulson over 4 years for $7.6M(see below) everybody will be happy.
The hypothetical $3M arbitration is not realistic, but if it is $3M then the Isle’s need to pay it. I am still guessing between $2M and $2.5M… Snow is probably bidding in the $1.8 range. The most likely scenario is that they announce a 3 year deal worth about $7M, and everybody is happy.
It’s highly likely that Matt will have a good season, but will get even less PP time with kids like JJ, Martin and Nino knocking on the door. His agent will see that his long term UFA position will be comprimised next July, and that offer is pretty fair. Snow understands that as well.
Except when the jackass owner steps in, the deals presented by Snow have been TRADEABLE, and that’s all you can really ask. Even $3M for one year doesn’t really hurt the club, except that Wang has to spend $3M.
What hurts the club is the $9.2M that WILL NOT score any goals for the team this year.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
my only thing is
Trent had been an NHL regular for a few years. MM hasn’t. But I wouldn’t be super pissed
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 4:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I see you reiterate that point, but...
…I think you need to evaluate the player as he’s been given an opportunity to succeed.
If you have a guy in the mailroom, working hard, being innovative and just generally being productive he is worth a raise on the scale that the rest of the mailroom is being paid.
But if I see potential in the kid and I give him a bump up to management, without much of a raise, and then he makes his whole department better, and makes the company large sums of money, then he gets the salary that is afforded that position, and a nice bump for being productive at that level while making minimum wage.
I think your $3M figure is a little absurd, but if a 3rd party arbitrator decided that was the number, okay, I pay it. Unfortunately, over the course of the year when Matt is less productive (highly likely), even though he is still playing hard, he will be disappointed that higher or even equal offers aren’t out there for an 18g/20a guy… though Sather might pick him up if he has $4M left under the cap.
Either way, the Isles are okay… If Matt shines, they win, if his glass slipper falls off, they’ve paid him for a great job last year. No biggie.
The NY Islanders are about to redo the salary cap floor with russian marble!
if his glass slipper falls off, they’ve paid him for a great job last year. No biggie.
And I’d add to that, they’d still have a case for bringing him back at a lower rate afterward. “Look, we know you work hard, you don’t get hurt, so we like you; you know you cashed in big from the arbitrator off that one year, so what do you say we rekindle this thing at a reasonable price?”
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
let's say
He falls somewhere in the middle. At what amount do You resign him to if he gets the 3 mill?
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 5:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
and by the middle i mean
If he gets 20 g 15 a next year? Just a hypothetical
by lostsin44 on Jul 26, 2010 5:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Pay cuts are allowed
Hypothetically if he was awarded $3 million and then disappointed, then certainly next summer they’d be talking about a lower salary. The NHL is more cost-conscious these days, so stomping feet and saying “I won’t take a paycut” just isn’t an option anymore.
That’s the whole deal with arbitration on a player like this: One side pictures the rosiest scenario, the other side fears the worst-case, an arbitrator comes in and says well here’s a safe + reasonable compromise for one year (MacArthur insanity notwithstanding), then after that year of data you’ll have a better picture of what’s real. The arbitrator can’t just say “You haven’t earned it yet” — he’s got to consider both extremes, one of which is that Moulson did very much earn it in his first full-time shot in the NHL.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
I like JP's Hunter model
Certainly an example of both sides hedging their risk in return for a long-term marriage. In the back of their minds the Islanders have to think in a couple of years Moulson will no longer be on Tavares’s wing*, and in the back of his mind Moulson’s agent has to fear the same. I imagine that’s where the game of chicken is.
*NOT that JT’s wing was his only production source, but it’s a short way and sweet way of saying Moulson will be lower on the depth chart in our ideal Rebuild Fulfilled dreams
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
Even if he wins big in arbitration
And is awarded more than you think he should be based on past on-ice performance one wonders if they might go along with it anyway just so JT can have his big-brother figure around for another year, I mean, half the reason they’re bringing Weight back has to be because of the role he’s playing in JT’s development, no?
And there’s an intangible that I think makes over-paying a player like Matty Mo an easier pill to swallow: He makes a great example to dangle in front of the kids (both currently on the roster and upcoming) – “Look, it could happen to you!”
Maybe even guys who are older than him (Parenteau) could see something to aspire to.
Over/Under = 3mil/per
Although it’s doubtful, if MM is awarded anything in excess of 3mil/per…I could see the Isles walking away. It just seems like the way things are going. In that scenario…expect Burke to jump right in and sign him. He may be a jerk, but he’s not stupid…and adding a late blooming 30 goal scorer for nothing except cash is a no brainer. I hope that never happens, as MM seems to be well liked by teammates and fans alike. I would love to see a 3yr/8.5 mil deal keep him on the island to develop w/J.T. & friends.
The way I see it, Moulson is too much of a feather in Garths FA cap AND a good kid for the Isles to do anyhting BUT sign him. I think if there was any chance of walking away Matty wouldnt have been doing promotional stuff this summer. Teams dont do that kind of thing with players they arent sure they are keeping. IMO Garth signs him no matter what. Arbitration isnt going to giv him crazy money, they are going to estimate what he is worth. Matt will be signed to a 1Y at the arbitrators decided salary if the arbitration is relatively high (>3M) and if it isnt then perhaps a multiyear at a lowe price will be in the near future.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 27, 2010 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Is he worth the money if...
…the Islanders trade for Marc Savard? Hockeybuzz has us and Buffalo as the two top bidders. You put Marc 60- assists a season Savard at Center with Matty on wing is it not possible that he can score 35-40? Take the arbitration, no matter what it is. Even if he only gets 15-20 goals next year the bet would have been worth it.
And in a world where arbitrators award Clarke MacArthur $2.4 million, your guess is as good as mine.
Indeed.
Katie Strang says the Isles and Moulson have settled. They must have been wary of MacArthur world, too.
In Dinglebarn We Trust
2.45 M to the moulson man!
still trying to figure out the meaning of "want you, cuckoo, cannonball" ... ... ... 17 years later...
damn...
missed being the first by a few minutes.
2.45 is fair, IMO. Hopefully, he will put up some numbers early next year to justify the four year deal we all hope he is worth.
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Jul 27, 2010 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
if he reproduces 30, i can’t see us matching the 4 year 21.6M offer that someone will give him
welcome to MSG, where 2 out of 5 vendors are safe to eat from!
I’m thinking the strategy would be, if he’s producing at a good clip by New Year’s, they start talking about an extension then. There’s a delicate line here, but if he were lights-out again and they low-balled him, they could be burning themselves not just on MM but also on JT.
Lighthouse Hockey: Adapting forecasts to the disturbance known as Nino.
WHOOOO!!!!
I had guessed 2.6M, damn I was close! :D
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 27, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
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Atlantic Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey
|
82 | 48 | 27 | 7 | 103 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
82 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 101 |
|
Philadelphia
|
82 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 88 |
|
New York Rangers
|
82 | 38 | 33 | 11 | 87 |
|
New York Islanders
|
82 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 79 |
(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)
Islanders Schedule
Next 5 Games
|
@
Philadelphia
|
Wed 09/29 | 7:00 PM EDT |
|
Calgary
|
Wed 09/29 | 8:00 PM EDT |
|
@
New Jersey
|
Fri 10/01 | 7:00 PM EDT |
|
New Jersey
|
Sat 10/02 | 7:00 PM EDT |
|
Montreal
|
Sat 10/02 | 7:00 PM EDT |
Last 5 Games
|
Pittsburgh
|
Sun 04/11 | OT - L 5 - 6 |
|
@
New Jersey
|
Sat 04/10 | L 1 - 7 |
|
@
Pittsburgh
|
Thu 04/08 | L 3 - 7 |
|
Montreal
|
Tue 04/06 | SO - W 4 - 3 |
|
Ottawa
|
Sat 04/03 | W 4 - 1 |
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