Bobby Ryan
by AP77 on Jul 11, 2010 3:52 PM EDT
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I'd love to see the Islanders open up the wallet and throw a ton of money at him. I know there are always concerns with RFAs, etc, but I'd love to see him skating for the Isles. He'd be a dominant force, particularly in the weaker East.
ESPN was reporting that the Ducks might be interested in trading him, but I don't see that. Not sure the Isles really have a package to offer anyway, so an RFA offer sheet might be the best bet. I know some people are adamantly opposed to RFA offers, etc. For the folks who know better than I do, what do the Isles give up if they make an offer to Ryan and he accepts?
Other thoughts on BR?
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Not sure about the specific compensation brackets – they vary w/the salary cap, which went up [again] this summer – but it’d likely take a 1st + 2nd + 3rd round pick to land Ryan. (I’m guessing Anaheim wouldn’t match an offer over $5.5 million/year… they do seem content w/giving him $5 million/year, but [from what I’ve heard/read], Ryan wants that on a three-year term [at most] and the Ducks have given him a 5 year/$25 million deal to mull over.)
Anyway, I love the guy – an absolute bull on the puck, reminds me a bit of the way Okposo plays… except Ryan’s got more skill – and wouldn’t mind seeing him in orange-and-blue. I have to imagine that he’d be worth the picks AND he’d make us a better enough team that we wouldn’t necessarily be giving the Ducks a top-five pick in next year’s draft… but offer sheets in general give me a bad vibe. (What happens when we have to pay up Okposo, Tavares, et al.? We’d be targets for other teams.)
Ducks offered $5 mil per for 5 years
They will likely match any offer. If we are giving up all those picks, it needs to be for defense, not offense. Not sure which defensive RFAs are out there and who would be willing to trade.
100% disagree
Most pressing need in my view is offense and almost always is. A lot of stuff falls into line when you can score a lot of goals. Plus the top prospects in the organization right now are all d-men.
I’d offer $6m for 3-5 years and see what happens. It may be slightly overpaying, but the Isles have a ton of cash and need to get to the floor.
the top prospects in the organization right now are all d-men.
not true…we are way top heavy in talented forwards. We have a few decent prospects on D, but nobody who is likely to be comparable to Mark Streit. We need another young talented defenseman much more than a forward. That is why Garth put so much effort into trying to sign one. Our defense is very weak and will remain so for the next few years. On offense, there is JT, KO, MM, NN, KP. BC, JB, RS, and FN with AL, BN,KK, and CC. On D, you have MS, JH, AM, and maybe TH if he is ready. CD, MD, and BK are 1-3 years away. Of the available D talent, really only MS and maybe TH would be top four on any passably deep NHL defense. Our need, by far, is for top four defenders. It isn’t even close, especially after this draft and the now increasingly likely prospect pf Petrov coming over.
de Haan, Hamonic, and Ness are among the top prospects in the system — all defenders. And if you still count Andy Mac as a prospect (as some appear to do), you add him as well. Aside from Petrov, who is intriguing, and NN, who we’ll have to wait and see, all of the remaining offensive prospects in the system are third and fourth line filler if that.
Don’t get me wrong, it would be nice to have another top flight defenseman. But Ryan would join this team and instantly be the top offensive force. You can never have enough offense. And he’s a physical force to be reckoned with as well.
Lee, Nelson, Kabanov, and probably Cizikas are hardly third liners or fillers
Ness can hardly be considered a top prospect anymore. The four forwards I mentioned are easily superior. In fact, they are all—except maybe Cizikas—on a par with De Haan and Hamonic. Hamonic is just more NHL-ready. And, even leaving Weight, Frans and Blake out of the mix, we have 7 top six quality forwards if Nino and Petrov make the team. Defense is a MUCH bigger need. It really isn’t even close.
Again, 100% disagree on both talent assessment and needs for the organization. Guess we’ll see how it turns out.
Besides the point, but you wouldn’t put Nino, Petrov, Kabanov against de Haan, Hamonic and Ness? I’d easily throw a Lee or Nelson in parallel to Ness at this point.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
from what I've read about Ness
I wouldn’t even say parallel. Ness really doesn’t belong with any of the players mentioned. And, even if he turns it around, he’ll still be about 160 pounds soaking wet. The others are likely not only to play for the Isles but are likely to be exceptional. It is hard to see Ness as a future Islander at all right now.
I say parallel only because high things were thought of Ness at the age Lee is at now.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
I think if I had to rank our prospects now (as far as potential, not counting goalies), I'd go...
Nino
DeHaan
Hamonic
Kabanov
Petrov
Nelson
Rakhshani
Ness
Donavan
Lee
Thats 4 D, 6 F, exactly how you’d want it. Although I can agree with BC’s thoughts that the one thing we are missing is a clear cut 1a superstar D man, but really how many of those actually out there, and DeHann and Hamonic may be just a 1/2 step below that.
I left off JJ and Martin because even though they are closest, their ceilings are probably 3rd liners at best, where the forwards I listed could reach top 6.
would rate Kabanov, Petrov, Donovan, and Lee higher and Ness lower
and I am not even talking about a superstar defender necessarily. Right now, we only really have one bonafide top four defender on the roster and only two guys in the system who we can be reasonably certain will meet that standard. Donovan and Kessel are really too far away to assess how they will stack up.. We absolutely NEED one good young top four defender to add to the mix…and it should be someone with size. Volchenkov or Michalek would have been perfect. Can the Isles get one this year? I don’t know. Is it worth taking a flyer on a Grebeshkov for example? Don’t know that either. My only point is that it is a much bigger priority than getting a forward like Ryan—especially as fraught and costly as such a move is likely to be.
LEE
I don’t understand how you can be so high on Lee so early, when the highest level of competition he’s played against so far is USHL. Lets see him play against older and bigger guys before we call him a top end prospect. And what’s his ceiling anyway? Third line center? I’m sure you’ll disagree with that but I would say the odds are stacked against him ever making an impact at the NHL level. We are talking about a 6th round pick taken out of high school. Even if he does make the team he is likely four or five years away. NCAA then AHL seasoning unless he absolutely dominates at the collegiate level.
the only reason he was a 6th rounder was that it was assumed he would play football
You are dismissing him because he played against USHL competition? Brock Nelson played against high school competition. Where was he picked? Quite a number of high school players have been first rounders. And Lee didn’t just play in the USHL, he dominated it. The odds aren’t stacked at all. In fact, a dominant third line center would be the low end projection for him in my view. It will take some years more because he has a brilliant mind as well and may want to go farther in his education including possibly a Rhodes scholarship. I would absolutely put him at Brock Nelson’s level. Neither is absolutely guaranteed to be a dominant NHLer, but the odds are good.
You consistently way over-value prospects. No, the odds are definitely NOT “good” that either Nelson or Lee will be dominant NHL players (or even crack the NHL for that matter). The overwhelming majority of prospects fail. That is why they are called “prospects.”
But here is something that has extremely good odds of being true: none of the Islanders prospects that you’re touting will end up being as good as Bobby Ryan.
by AP77 on Jul 13, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
probably true, but he is also going to cost you basically your draft 1 year, and i’m not sure i he’s worth that
Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the Fandango ?
-sorry, that pic just screams Boh/Rhap to me
Depends on the draft class...
if you look back over the past decade about the only classes I wouldn’t give up for Ryan would be 2006, 2008, 2009, and 2010.
Hell I think I’d trade every player we took from 2001-2005 and throw in 2007 if we had them all, for him.
That's pretty significant
You’re saying every post-Milbury draft except the one where our 1st was in Edmonton is too much to give up for Ryan — that gives me pause.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
I guess but you could also look at it as...
every draft class aside from the ones after we fell apart and had a top ten pick every year (except for the one we traded to Edmonton, which was not top 10 anyways).
IDK...
I think Nino, has the potential, and I certainly think JT will be as good, but certainly no one else. Different types of players certainly, but I’m talking from a basic PPG perspective.
The question is what will they be and how many of them would you be willing to add up to get a Ryan.
Well, yeah, JT. I wasn’t counting him since he’s not a prospect anymore. He can certainly match or hopefully surpass BR.
As for the rest . . .
I think Nino has the potential and should be as well...
you can even throw Kabanov in there, although far less likely to reach it, he has the skill if ever does reach to be as good, even better.
the overwhelming majority of first round prospects do not fail
The odds are very good that they will both crack the NHL and scouts have looked at them both and seen far more than you apparently do. One scout, for example, acknowledging that they are different types of players nevertheless compared Lee’s abilty to Paul Martin’s Last I checked Paul Martin plays in the NHL and most everyone on this blog would have been quite happy if he had chosen to sign with us.
As to Ryan, yes he is a terrific forward, but no we do not need him especially for what he would cost us.
?
You said the odds are good that either or both of Nelson and Lee will become dominant NHLers. In fact, the odds are overwhelmingly against that.
Lee, incidentally, was not a first round prospect as you know. And the overwhelming majority of first round prospects do not become dominant NHL players.
Another thing I don’t understand. One scout says “hey, this guy reminds me of Paul Martin.” Ok, all well and good. But you seem to imply that Lee = Paul Martin, and because Paul Martin = good NHL player, then Lee = good NHL player.
he said his talent level reminded him of Martin
and if a player is as talented as an excellent NHL player, his chances of making the NHL are pretty good in my book. I would say that Lee did not go in the first round for reasons having nothing to do with his ability and that he is at least comparable to Nelson, a first rounder. Not all first rounders become dominant players, but more of them do make the NHL.
his commitment to college was also a factor in where he was picked, teams knew he was definitely going to school for the duration, and also knew hockey wasn’t a slam dunk, he may choose to actually work after graduation, he’s a stud athlete for sure, but everyone knew his options outside of hockey would be greater than most prospects they scout, hence the late round pick… if this kid said 100% hockey, i want the nhl in 2011-2012, then he would have been a 2nd or 3rd rounder
Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the Fandango ?
-sorry, that pic just screams Boh/Rhap to me
I’m not dismissing him. I’m just trying to be realistic. I like the Brock Nelson pick but we won’t really know the player he can be until we see him against better competition. Same goes with Lee. And yes he was a good player in the USHL but he was a 19 year old playing against kids mostly his age or younger. Its hard to gauge how he will play against men in a higher level of competition. Look at Ness, he dominated high school and is now having a lot of trouble stepping up his game. The same could happen to Lee. I hope not and I would love to see him develop into an NHL player but he has a long way to go to proving himself.
Also he finished 10th in scoring in the USHL last year, very very good but not quite “dominant”. His production was about on par of Kyle Okposo’s production in the USHL in his draft year. The difference though was that Kyle was a 17 year old and Anders is 19, which makes a huge difference in junior hockey. I do like Anders Lee as a prospect, and would love to see him develop into an NHLer. Its just that I have heard you heap all kinds of praise on him since the Isles drafted him and I think it is a little premature. Lets see him continue to score at higher levels before we get too excited.
some of them are younger
but a lot are not. And according to one observer, he dominated the boards more than anyone in the USHL. He was the best PF in the league, the Rookie of the Year, and the Clark Cup MVP in addition to being 10th in scoring. I would call that dominant. No prospect is guaranteed making it in the NHL, but I do believe that his chances are a LOT better than you and AP seem to think.
that may be 4-5 years away
I suspect that a sharp kid like that has a bunch of AP credits and probably was doing courses by correspondence as well. He may only need 2-3 years to get his degree. In any event, the Isles waited 4 years for Kenny M and that turned out pretty well.
My point is that lets see how he responds to the next level of competition. As Islander fans we have seen a lot of guys dominate in HS or the USHL only to struggle in the NCAA. . Like I said this is an exciting kid and I hope he tears up college. I am just not quite ready to start penciling him in as our second or third line center in 3-4 years. You’ve taken a shine to this kid and are rooting for him and that is fine everyone has there one favorite prospect they root for. Lets just step back and be realistic though.
actually
if he Nelson and Martin all work out as well as Nino, Petrov, Kabanov, Parenteau, and Comeau all work out, I could see him, Nelson, and Martin as an elite fourth line that could dominate a lot of other teams’ top lines.
Yeah. I think that Lee could very well develop into a great checking line center. You have to love his size and all scouting reports rave about his defensive awareness, fore and backchecking and hitting; all important components for that role. I’m not rooting against this kid and would love to see him in that kind of role.
Color me way, way more excited for a 23-year old PF who is dominating in the NHL right now.
Like, you know, Bobby Ryan.
I think it's fairly even at this point
this past draft did a lot to booster the prospects we have at forward (which was very weak IMHO), I mean we arguably brought in three top six prospects, two of them (Nino and KK) with very high ceilings.
I would certainly say after that we do have more D prospects both closer to ready (after Nino, JJ, and Martin), and by shear numbers with the ability to make it to the NHL. But you also have to take into consideration that the last wave of prospects to come up (JT, KO, and Bailey) were all forwards.
we really only have two D prospects that are close to NHL-ready
I think our roster had much more young offensive talent this year and adding Nino, Petrov, and Martin—and we don’t know how good Parenteau will be (almost like a Moulson-like prospect) plus the budding talents of JT, Josh, Kyle, Blake Schremp, and Moulson and now all the talent we have added on offense into the system. Don’t see it as close, much less even.
"need to get to the floor"
I can see arguments for signing Ryan if it stops at a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, but that’s territory (<$6M) where Anaheim is likely to match. And go over $6M, you’re in two 1sts compensation territory. Add to it that I think the vengeance factor (of a team poaching our RFAs) is very real, and while it’d be nice to lock NYI kids up before they hit RFA, we just don’t know if that can happen. In fact, what if making that happen requires $6M salaries for each of them, too?
…which gets me to why “they need to get to the floor” in 2010 is really dangerous reasoning for committing such money into 2015. In the next few years, getting to the floor is not going to be an issue. A couple poor moves can land them in budget trouble (you have to assume the Islanders internal budget is way below the cap).
Seems like Ryan is for real. Probably worth the risk for some team. But there are some potential consequences that go beyond the draft picks.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Ryan is an excellent player, though, and worth the money even aside from the “floor” argument. He’s one of, if not the, premiere power forwards in the league and not even at his prime yet.
No from me on this one.
I just dont think offer sheets are worth the repecussions your organization can face when the shoe is on the other foot.
I could see a team offering some of our young stars the moon and dishing it right back to us. Look at what the Sharks have just done to the Blackhawks… the timing is so moustache-twistingly mean!!!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions
plus we really don't need him
we need a top defenseman like the four who slipped through Garth’s fingers. I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he made every effort to land 1-2 of them. But if we can trade for a quality RFA defender, that would be great.
We don’t need a 30+ goal scorer who is 23 years old and a physical force? On a team that is perennially near the bottom of the league in GF? Ok. . . . you and I obviously disagree on “needs.”
on a team that
in the last two drafts has selected no less than 6 blue chip quality forwards, that added a 30 goal scorer this year, and that may well have 7 top six quality forwards on its roster this year? Yes, I guess we do.
A number of teams that have scored about what we have have made or competed for the playoffs. No playoff team this year came within 25 of our GA. Defense is a MUCH bigger need than offense for thos team. Yes, we disagree.
Ryan is an excellent player, though, and worth the money even aside from the "floor" argument.
Yeah, I can’t think of a recent RFA who’d be more worth a run. Certainly more worth it than Kessel.
The risk of off-ice repercussions just seems too strong. And Anaheim has the cap room, they just don’t have the desire and internal budget to spend that much. Seems like all we (or any team) would be doing is inflating the salary demands of their own RFAs.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
I'd love to see it but just don't think its practical...
to get him to sign and not have the Ducks match I think would take a huge offer over 5mil. thats going to cost 4 first round draft picks (ouch).
A trade will cost somewhere in the realm of Phil Kessel, but we have a lot more prospects/young player than Toronto so I think Anaheim insists on a blue chipper along with next years first to begin with, so your looking at us having to include one of JT, Nino, or KO and I don’t even know if that will be enough, they may want a secondary prospect along the lines of DeHaan, Hamonic, or Bailey to go along with it. Either way your taking a huge risk on the future of this club.
I think I’d be willing to go next years first, 2012 second, and one player other than JT or Nino, maybe another draft pick if I have to but thats it. However I don’t think that gets it done, but I would give it a try if I was Garth.
goes back to the old Devellano mantra
You build through the draft. There may come a point where you are ready to take that next step to put the team over the top and you go for it—although I argue that if I am making that choice right now it is for a defenseman—but we are far from being at that point right now.
But Devellano mantra is really pre- lockout and pre RFA (by todays rules)
when your signing a player who is 23 years old, it’s really a lot different, than the old school 28/29+ FA. Its essentially like drafting him, but with a much much higher cost but with much better certainty as well.
not all that different
look at the best teams today:
Hawks Toews, Kane, Keith, Seabrook and others all through the draft
Caps Ovi, Semin, Green, Backstrom
Pens Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury
You have to build through the draft and it is unwise to start splurging with assets until you have the core in place. I think we have enough quality forwards and goaltending prospects. We need 1-2 quality defenders in addition to what is on our roster and in our system.
I agree to some extent, but
I think going after a player like Ryan or any young RFA you think is a real game changer is more like adding a draft pick, not just acquiring your normal UFA, or trading for that established star or last missing piece. Ryan is a player thats only 23 that you can build your franchise around for years to come.
it is different in that
apart from a trade up, the draft pick doesn’t cost you anything. The assets being discussed here are pretty heavy duty and I think it is premature for the Isles to be even thinking of that sort of move. I could see giving up say Hillen and a first rounder if Deano wanted to move Johnson. It might take more than that, but that’s an example of a reasonable move.
Compensation
May be too steep in this, but aside from that, the fighting over team needs is kind of foolish. Let’s
take either side of the argument that we are more stocked at forward or mire stocked at d. If we are more stocked at d,= we need, go get. If we are more stocked at forward,evaluate the teams strength vs player position, and if the Rfa is worth it do it, and deal some of the forward prospects for d prospects existing players or draft picks we can use for d. We aren’t as barren as we once were, we have options and bargaining chips that we didn’t have for a while and other gms are aware of our growing talent base. Our biggest problem is getting ufas over here. Panic time is over. It’s planning time!
by Keith Quinn on Jul 12, 2010 3:01 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hell no
We aren’t a good enough team to give away first round picks. Were a goalie injury and a streit injury away from pulling a leafs and hoping we didn’t give away the first overall. No thank you. Add in the revenge factor and hell no.
very good point, we can have another lottery pick, looking at how the teams ahead of us have outdone us in FA, we should still be better sure, but the East was terrible vs the West, and getting another 8-10 points in the standings still could mean a top 10 pick
Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the Fandango ?
-sorry, that pic just screams Boh/Rhap to me
Not saying we should do it, but...
I think Ryan is a much better and more complete player than Kessel.
We are also in much better shape than Toronto was/is.
I agree, but...
… the risk of landing back in lottery land is still just a couple back-breaking injuries away — at least the way the roster stands now. That’s what scares me the most, and it’s why I think the timing for The Plunge with that kind of compensation still isn’t here just yet.
On the other hand, even Toronto, with its vacuum at center to “help” Kessel, wouldn’t have handed Seguin to the Oilers if they hadn’t had a Finnish circus clown in goal for the first half of the season.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Yes but We do not spend like Toronto Spends
Toskala was an Epic failure but You can make a case that every team in the east we have to compete for a playoff spot got better. We cannot say for certain we will be better than anybody in the east (Maybe Florida and Carolina?) We are counting on Improvement from JT, Moulson not being a dud, Kyle advancing again. Streit not being injured long term. Rollie and the Ricker nto being injured. A lot of ifs not a lot of concrete improvements. Add the fact that we do not spend to the cap so if we are on a self impossed budget do we really want to piss off anybody with an offer sheet when if they take a shot at one of our players we may not be able to match based solely on Budget and not cap room? I am resigned to the fact that we will be a low spending team until we have to or until this mess with the arena is resolved. lets build assets ala LA Kings and spend then.
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
