Poll: Which mini-camp prospects will make the 2010/11 Islanders?
by Judgegavel on Jul 11, 2010 12:50 PM EDT
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PrintEditor's note: This was the planned Sunday topic, but Judgegavel beat us to it with this FanPost. With the scrimmage and mini-camp complete (expect more coverage of that scrimmage at the SBN NY hub), let the napkin-sketching and debate continue...
Okay, with the Orange and Blue game today, and after we've taken a look at some of the prospects in mini camp (minus DeHaan). I wanted everyones thoughts on who is most likely to make the team this year. I included a ton of options in the poll, anyone you think I might have left out I didn't include please let me know and I will add. I also didn't include AMac, Kohn, or Reese even though they all may technically still be rookies (at least Kohn and Reese are), and are almost a lock to be spending a portion of the season with the big club.
I happen to think we are going to have at least three rookies, maybe four, make it out of camp (two forwards, two defense).
My three most probable are Nino, JJ, and Hamonic, the fourth being another defenseman not sure who yet (probably one of Katic or Klementyev, if Kohn and Reese get shown up or Hamonic doesn't make it). But as to who was the most likely out of Nino, JJ, and Hamonic I had a hard time deciding.
JJ, has done his time at Brigeport and is almost a perfect fit to replace Bergy, but we also signed a number of 3rd and 4th line forwards to compete, and we cant rule out Matt Martin, so lots of competition there.
Nino, has all the scouts saying he's ready for the NHL, has the size we so desperately need, we have a real need for another top six with star potential. But, he will have just turned 18, it will mean figuring who to bump from Schremp, Comeau, or even Bailey off the first two lines.
Hamonic, he is the biggest need of the three, but could be the least ready, was last year the true Hamonic, or was it a 19 year old that grew into his body, and allowed him to easily dominate smaller 17/18 yo. Doesn't he really need a year at bridgeport?
So after all that debate, my final choice is........
Nino, he has the biggest upside, he goes back to juniors if not, if all the scouts are right and he's NHL ready, he will be with the club 2010-2011 no doubt.
So what are your thoughts, and why?
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it's a tough call
In fact, I will be doing a BR piece shortly on this very subject. We have 12 forwards including Weight without Nino, Petrov, Martin, or Joensuu. Don’t know if Gillies and Konopka have two way deals.
We then have 7 defensemen plus Klementyev, Katic, Kohn, Reese, and Hamonic, not including De Haan. Then in goal, we have Roly, DP?, Lawson, and maybe Poulin and Koskkinnen.
I am still unclear whether we need to add salary to reach the cap floor. Should we add a forward like Frolov and a defenseman like Grebeshkov? Will adding them make it too difficult to keep Nino on the roster or give time to Martin or Joensuu? Will not adding them make it too difficult for the Isles to make the playoffs especially if Nino and Petrov don’t make it? I still don’t know the answers.
Goal is where I have no clue...
After Roly, is DP healthy enough to start the season, what happens if he’s not or when he goes down, will Lawson be brought up, will we sign someone else, shouldn’t Poulin be getting time in the AHL over Lawson, Is Mikko the starter in BP over Lawson?
Oh and for the cap I think we are at...
$35.7 now without MM or Weight, and need to be at $43.4. So we are close, Nino being added will probably make it perfect.
http://www.capgeek.com/charts.php?Team=21&salary_cap_mil=59&salary_cap_thou=4
isn't there some kind of bonus cushion though?
and I do not see MM and DW adding up to more than $4 mil, so I would think we would need more in any event.
Closer than you might think
MM will get about 3 mil at arbitration and weight will get about 2, so we’re near 41, and we willNOT be signing Frolov or grebeshkov, that’s obvious….signing NINO gets us to the floor Petrov and someone else (cheap) would as well.
don’t see Moulson getting $3 mil or Weight getting $2…more like $2.5 and $1.5. Also, I think that there is some sort of bonus cushion that changes the picture a bit. Neither Nino or Petrov should change the cap total that much. It is far from obvious that there will not be another significant signing. There is no way to know at this point whether either Nino or Petrov will make the roster.
I could see Weight getting $2 million in cap hit just through potential bonuses. (I noted this below, but the bonus cushion doesn’t come into play here.)
Regardless, they are playing close to the underside of the floor, to the point it’s still a factor.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Bonus Cushion
FYI, the “bonus cushion” is basically what allows teams to potentially exceed the cap by a certain amount if bonuses are magically met. So Chicago this year used the bonus cushion to get by, but since Toews and (apparently) Kane each met their Cup-winner bonuses, Chicago’s cap next year decreases by the amount they went over this year.
In short, the bonus cushion doesn’t affect the Isles.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
I’d slot Lawson in as backup to begin the season right now (until we see DP at camp) with Mikko and Poulin splitting time in the AHL. If DP is the backup to begin the season, I’d expect Mikko and Poulin to get the lions share of starts and Lawson to be the emergency NHL backup in case DP goes down.
The Swiss are Coming, The Swiss are Coming!
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
If we don't sign anyone else thats what I'd hope...
I’d like to see Poulin get his fair share at BP to see what he can do.
question isn't whether DP STARTS the season
he almost certainly will. Question is how many starts he can make before he reinjures his knee. We should make a pool. I will start the prognostication at 12 starts. Of course, if he can do 12 games without a reinjury, we may have ourselves a goaltender. I am not hopeful of that however.
Any particular reason......
…..nobody has referenced Nilsson at all in terms of goal hierarchy? Especially after his showing at the Coliseum last night?
he has two blue chip prospects in front of him and
he’s just a kid. Probably needs 1-2 years of seasoning before he’s even ready for Bridgeport.
.....ahhhhhh.....thought he was older and ahead of Poulin.....
…..on the depth chart (although Poulin is touted as being much more gifted, I know…..)
was thinking Poulin was older
they are actually the same age. Mikko is 2 years older. Doesn’t matter that much. We have two prospects who are over here and will probably be NHL-ready at the end of this season so there is no need to rush Nilsson over here.
But you really cant count...
Weight or Gillies (even Konopka), as full time players, so their is at least one forward spot opened, thats assuming every pro keeps there job (which if they are out played I highly doubt they will).
Same on D, we have Streit, Hillen, AMac, Jurcina, and Eaton as probable locks, with Martinek, Bruno and all the rooks fighting it out for the last two spots (if Brunos out played he’s gone, and Martinek, well who knows if he’s healthy, and for how long). I think there you probably see Hamonic beat out Bruno, then one of the three K’s called up from BP to replace Martinek when he goes down.
I doubt a healthy Martinek is a third pairing defenseman
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions
It wasn’t in any kind of pairing order. I just doubt Martinek will be healthy or at least 100% back to where he was. I think if he even makes the team its for a few games before he gets injured again, or realizes he can’t make it in the NHL any more. If he is 100% he certainly a second pairing guy, thats just kind of doubtful at this point.
are Konopka and Gillies on two way deals?
if they are, they can be flipped back and forth to Bridgeport for Martin and Joensuu.
Misconception:
Being on a two-way deal doesnt really have anything to do with players being allowed to " flip back and forth to Bridgeport." Thats not what 2-way deal means. Two way deal has to do with having a second pay scale if you are in the minors that is way less than what you make while you play in the NHL.
Whether you can bring a guy up and put him back down has to do with their career GP and whether they are brought up as an injury replacement. Otherwise you can still do it, whenever you want, but they are subjected to waivers- whether their deal is one or two way doesnt change that.
That being said, I know Gillies is on a 2-way deal, dont know about Konopka but I assume not.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesnt
but if a player DOES play down in the AHL, you dont have to pay him NHL salary.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Not having to pass through waivers and having to pay a player less
sure sounds like it makes it easier to me = facilitate
They DO have to pass through waivers though
Two-way is only about the salary. Waivers relates to a combo of age and games played. Gillies requires waivers.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
misread TMC's comment
didn’t Gillies go back once or twice? don’t recall him being placed on waivers
Gillies had to clear waivers last year (he was sent down after his first game).
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Martinek=tradebait
If Martinek is 100% at camp i would give him light work in the beginning of the season. Play him maybe 50 games this year. At the trade deadline, I would showcase the heck out of him. He is a UFA next year and I think he will end up another Kenny Jonsson just without the points. I like him but I don’t feel he is NHL tough.
he is a superb shutdown guy
if he is healthy and the team is in contention, he will be going nowhere. For one thing, we wouldn’t get a return anything like what a healthy Martinek would offer. We do not have the depth at D to rest him much. If he is on the roster, he plays. Hopefully he can stay healthy.
I agree with you
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not only that, he’s an anonymous shutdown guy. Doubt other teams recognize his value as much as the Isles do.
And for the Martinek-when-healthy doubters (I know some think he sucks even when healthy), just check games where he was allowed to match up against Ovechkin.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Not only that, he’s an anonymous shutdown guy. Doubt other teams recognize his value as much as the Isles do.
yeah, kinda what I meant when I said he wouldn’t get us a return comparable to his value to us when healthy.
Fearless Prediction
Martinek plays 81 games for the Isles this year!!! (he’ll miss one game with flu-like symptoms)
WOW
Talk about optimism! :)
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 16, 2010 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Anders Lee
I don’t think he was in prospect camp was he? Any one know why?
Where we gonna spend our money?
I’ll toss my vote in for Matt Martin. Even w/the addition of Konopka for fourth-line energy and character, size/physicality/aggressiveness remains a team need. I’m also thinking about Snow’s envisioned role for Gillies, explained in this Katie Strang tweet a while back:
For any #Isles fans wondering, Garth Snow said he envisions Konopka playing alongside, not instead of, enforcer Trevor Gillies.
I don’t see Gillies an everyday fourth-liner [the two-way contract seems to bolster that rationale], but if Snow is angling for some toughness that can play, a guy like Martin would be the obvious choice – not a true enforcer, but [like Konopka] a good middleweight who will hit and bring a boatload of energy to the rink. (I value that over ANYTHING Gillies could contribute as a fighter.) The coaching staff appears to be pretty high on his work ethic as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he puts in the work during training camp and gets rewarded w/a spot on the Opening Night roster.
Just to repeat something I said in the Blue&Orange thread
Petrov, if the Islanders can get him out of his contract, is 100% sure to make the team. Everyone interviewed during the scrimmage basically gave him rave reviews.
The Swiss are Coming, The Swiss are Coming!
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
That's pretty cool
One of my worries about him was that we didn’t really know whether he was NHL-ready yet, since he doesn’t get the chance to shine with the big club in the KHL. I suppose the WJC de-Filatoving was a nice step.
Now about that KHL contract…
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Apparently thats not complicated at all...
as per Dmitry Chesnokov
Most players his age don’t make much money. That leaves the chance of a buyout. If a KHL player pays 2/3 of his contract, he can walk.
Sounds like no agreement has to be made its just about money, and not much at that.
Reports about Petrov’s contract were a lot of money though. And it’s great that Chesnokov says that, but where is the precedent for a KHL player actually buying his way out? There is some kind of info we’re missing.
Still, when the NYI official site talks about him like it’s simply the Islanders’ decision, that gives me hope. Presumably they wouldn’t allow their marketing people to talk that way if there wasn’t a good chance.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Still, when the NYI official site talks about him like it’s simply the Islanders’ decision, that gives me hope.
Not sure about that… Garth Snow doesn’t seem to be quite as hopeful and said in the interview that the two-year contract with the KHL team would be a big hurdle for the Islanders. “Per the CBA, we can’t buy out that contract or anything of that nature and it has to be a situation, where the Russian team will release him from that obligation.”
True. That to me is the status quo. I just wonder what’s going on behind the scenes for them to do all this. Or if they’re giving him the hard sell to show him it’d be worth buying out his own contract — maybe with {wink-wink} easily achieved rookie bonuses in his entry-level deal to sweeten the deal.
Basically I remain guarded, but the amount of attention they’ve extended makes me think there’s a better chance than your average KHL-tied player.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Garth's being cautious
but I have to believe, even as clueless as the organization sometimes is about PR, that they would not have made a big production out of bringing KP over and raving about his performance unless the probability of him being released was pretty high. There is probably some sort of understanding that if the Islanders were satisfied with how he performed in Prospect Camp, a deal could be worked out.
The Candidates
So I had a post in mind before Judge’s showed up, and this is how I saw the main candidates (as evidenced by poll results so far):
Nino: Probably all in his hands. If the team is impressed with him at camp, it just sounds like an immediate boost they’d go for.
Hamonic: Likewise. He’s bigger now, had more games post-injury than De Haan, obviously, and if the opening is there he gets it. Makes me wonder if the team will make a difficult decision about a Gervais, or wait for injury, or carry 8 off the bat. These are the kinds of decisions that go down to the wire because there are always injuries in camp.
De Haan: Could almost see it with this team, but it just doesn’t make sense with all the time he missed and the fact he’s only now skating. If he’s that important to the Isles’ future, let that shoulder heal 100%, let that man grow into an NHL body.
Martin: Hardly a foregone conclusion, and I wonder if Konopka’s presence as an agitator is competition for Martin’s place on the team? In other words, if you’re trying to make a scoring big winger out of Joensuu, do you feel better letting Martin percolate some more in the A while you evaluate JJ and let Konopka (and maybe Gillies) do your shift-disturbing?
Kirill K: He’s so young, still needs filling out, and could use more than a few days of translating for Kirill P. to prove he’s serious. To juniors!
The Rakh: Definitely an AHL start but could easily see him as a go-to call-up during the year.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
difference with Petrov, Hamonic and Martin
they could spend time in Bridgeport is needed. For that reason, I would see Nino as more likely then them to start with the Isles in October if he seems ready.
Yep. And the Isles sure like their big players to develop under their roof. For Nino, there’s only one route for that.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
Does Rhett get a boost from his past with KO?
I’ve read about the two really clicking during the WJC a few years ago and some peoples’ hopes that this could contribute to the formation of a potent line for the Isles.
That was three seasons ago already, so I don’t think that matters much. Even if Rakhshani makes the team, he’d be playing mostly 3rd line, not likely to be paired on the wing with KO.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 11, 2010 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
LL
Hmmm…hockey names with L… Lorne Lorimer? Lester Lowe?
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
we would have to trade with Mon for Louie LeBlanc
Scaramouch, Scaramouch, will you do the Fandango ?
-sorry, that pic just screams Boh/Rhap to me
Loic Lacasse is a free agent goalie and there’s former Coyotes draft pick Liam Lindstrom who is Wayne Gretzy’s godson.
There are few things in this world I enjoy more than the English getting beaten like a rented mule.
by David Hanssen on Jul 11, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Pierre-Luc Latourneau LaBlond
Just drop Pierre-Luc and you’ve got LL. He wouldn’t even have to move!
Hopefully, none of them are rushed...
All the talk and news about these kids having a great mini-camp is extremely exciting. I love the fact that we are this excited about the team in July. My only reservation is rushing the kids. I hate to show this as a negative, but look at KO and Bails. They could probably still use some seasoning in the minors. They are capable NHLers, and I’m sure improvement is coming down the pike, but I think if they were given the chance to perform in the minors or extra time in juniors/college, they may be more productive.
Now, I’m no expert, and I like the way they are developing. I think if Bails did another year in juniors, he may have developed a little better than in his first year. There were times, and a lot of them, when he looked lost out there. There were some of those times even last year. Now, the counter arguement can be there were times when JT looked clueless, so there’s that too.
I just hope they make thwe right move for the right reason. I hope they take these kids up to the NHL because they actually think they are ready, not so they can show the fans the shiny new toy. I have faith they will make the right decision.
I don't think any of these players making the team would be considered rushing...
aside for the defenseman maybe and KK who is not going to make it any way. The only players there Juniors eligible are KK, and Nino, and most scouts think Nino is NHL ready, the rest will be in the AHL this year if they don’t make it (aside from Petrov who would have to go back to the KHL if nothings worked out).
and most scouts think Nino is NHL ready
Is that true though? Reports going into the draft talked about Hall being ready, maybe a defenseman or two, and Seguin being a toss-up or at least “less ready” than Hall. I don’t understand where the consensus on Nino is coming from, but I’m sure open to the possibility.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
what I read
was along the lines, “This guy has jumped through every hoop so far so I wouldn’t be surprised if he made his team’s roster.” There has been some talk that he needed to work on his first step of acceleration…and to show you the kind of guy he is, he was already acknowledging that pre-draft and indicated that he had been working on the problem. Apart from his obvious size and talent, it is his determination and drive that convince me that he will make the roster and become a great player.
First-step
Yeah, he said that in a mini-camp interview, too. Interesting. He’s adapted so quickly to every challenge, I wonder if he’ll sail through that one as well. Very intriguing character.
Lighthouse Hockey: "A f#$%ing haven of reason compared to practically every other Islanders site." --TMC
one square foot of real estate
that’s what separates the great from the good and the very good. I am convinced that he will be great.
Thats what I've read a number of places the latest was by Gare Joyce at ESPN (insiders only)...
Under GM Garth Snow, the Isles are wide open to the idea of bringing their prospects right in. John Tavares was a no-brainer, but Josh Bailey is a useful analogy. Niederreiter is more ready than Bailey was a couple of years ago when he had his initiation under fire on Long Island.
They list him as the fourth most ready prospect this year behind Hall, Seguine, and Gudbranson. Many were saying Duchene was a toss up last year, but we see how that turned out. I think you add in the presence of Streit as a mentor and Nino if he shows he belongs is a lock this year.
Might be less spots at forward
Once Kovy signs with another team (he’s going to LA to meet with the Kings per NHL.com) Snow will likely go after one (or more) of the remaining wingers. Snow can always sign two proven forwards and deal one later if he wants to make space for the young talent with a call up. I think it is almost a given that he will sign at least 1 more forward (hopefully one with an ov at the end). My vote was for Hamonic. Petrov can if they can get him out of the KHL but I think everyone else may be destined to wait another year. JJ Parenteau might even make the team and be a 2010 Moulson (not likely but possible). I think Gilles is staying up. He was at the draft party and I don’t imagine them giving him face time if he will disappear to Bridgeport next season. He will be around to break Sean Avery’s nose next season. Nino is a great talent but he is REALLY young. He will score 40+ in BP and we will see him next year.
Well- Nino will score 0 for BP because he cant play there for another few years.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jul 11, 2010 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I really don't think we sign anyone else, aside for possibly a goalie...
I really think Garth’s expectations is either Nino or Petrov will make the team as a top six, and we have a bunch of player everywhere else that can step in if needed.
If there is a defenseman out there
who is 25-30 and Garth thinks will improve the defense, I would make that move. If Garth is confident that Petrov will be able to stay and make the roster and Nino as well, then a FA top six is not essential.
Yes defense is a little up in the air...
I think a lot depends on their read of Hamonic and if he’s close to ready, if not they should be searching for a Dman. I just think the talk is so high on the three right now (Nino, Petrov, and Hamonic) that it’s really apparent they want to build from with in, and start sooner than later.
regardless of Hamonic
I think they need another likely top four, preferably a bigger one. No way to know if Donovan or Kessel will develop into one. Hillen and Amac looked good this past year, but I am not sold that they will be the answer either. Plus we need another big guy in the top four anyway. One of the Four Horsemen would have been ideal. If Boston had been willing to deal Mark Stuart he might have worked too. If Garth and Gordon didn’t mind a project, Lee on Ottawa or Grebeshkov might be worth trying. Other than that, we’ll have to wait until the draft and FA next summer.
I think Nino, Martin an dharmonic all make the team
Nino because it has been the pattern the last 2 seasons. bring the top pick right in and let them learn at the NHL level
Martin because with Sim gone and Jackman I see him filling both roles. Plus he showed he could play at th eNHL level just before the break last season, maybe he doesn’t have enough to stay but he has enough to start on the 4th line, and maybe on the PP
Harmonic because we need D and he seems a little a head of Dehaan in both level of play and recovery from last seasons injury
I agree on all three...
although I think Martin and JJ will both be competing for that spot, and it will be close. I can also see Petrov making it over Nino if he is not ready, and Petrov is.
I see a lot of people voting for Matt Martin, probably because of his showing in his brief time last year, but food for thought is Konopka fills his agitator role, and Nino (if he makes it) is the big PF we use on the PP, I think that gives JJ the advantage for the open spot, he’s the superior defensive player to Martin, and is further along on the depth chart.
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