Grading the Islanders: Can the Matt Moulson Miracle repeat?
by Dominik on Jun 19, 2010 2:57 PM EDT
in New York Islanders Report Cards
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PrintApologies for site issues earlier; things should be good now. Since you had to go elsewhere this a.m., you might have already seen:
- "We have a trade to announce..." Flyers-Predators pipeline continues: Rights to UFA Dan Hamhuis to Philly in exchange for ex-Pred Ryan Parent.
- The Islanders are doing a small drawing for those who pick the right draft pick (and submit their personal info).
- Fun little Hall of Fame debate by LeBrun and Burnside. No to Hunter. No now, no forever and ever.
- The competition committee approves stiffer penalties for headshots, the details are vague.
- As with many fans, my dad is the reason I got into hockey. The father essays in this post at Islanders Point Blank are pretty cool.
And now, our next report card. We don't track every depth and AHL signing here, but I found this a fun bit of blogger shame: There is no record on this site of the announcement last summer when Matt Moulson signed. In other words, I did not make a big fuss when the Islanders acquired the guy who would lead them in goals with 30 in 2009-10. Go me!
To be fair, the Islanders likewise did not make a big deal of it, and they said they hoped he would continue to score in the AHL (74 goals in three seasons with Manchester) while competing for a spot with the Islanders. Considering those expectations, then, it would seem Moulson's report card would be as easy as they come.
Matt Moulson
#26 / Left Wing / New York Islanders
6-1
206
Nov 01, 1983
1+
RFA, was $575k NHL salary (2-way)
"We signed some Moulson/Moore/Mauldin guys."
Moulson scored in preseason, then he scored early in the regular season, and he never really stopped. Sure, he leveled off after the hot start, but on his way to 30 goals he provided the best anyone could have rationally expected when he arrived.
Will he reach 30 again? Well, considering his profile -- as well as the fact the Isles hadn't had a 30-goal guy since Jason Blake's walk year -- it's not likely. But he will continue to be a smart, two-way NHL player with scoring punch. Bank on that, at least.
One question you look at when trying to guess how repeatable a guy's good season is: Was his shooting percentage unusually high? In other words, was he particularly lucky this year (at age 26) since four-five good bounces can make for a career year?
For Moulson, we don't know since this was his first full NHL season. We do know 14.4% is within the range of the best NHL shooters. We also have data from some of his AHL seasons: 2006-07 with Manchester, when he played 77 games and scored 25 goals on 173 shots. That translates to? ... 14.5%. In 2007-08 in Manchester he scored 28 goals on 157 shots (57 games), which translates to ... 17.8%. A year later (2008-09), it was 21 goals (54 games) on 180 shots, which is just 11.7%.
The AHL is easier to score in than the NHL, but I don't figure him to see a huge drop from this year since Moulson's offense is built both on his ability to get a good shot off as well as his willingness to go to the net and get deflection and tap-in goals. Moulson's 14.4% this year was highest on the Islanders, but not by a huge margin over fellow shooters John Tavares, Josh Bailey and Blake Comeau.
Oh, also there's this: 22 of Moulson's 30 goals were at even strength. He wasn't relying on powerplay servings, and in fact his 22 even-strength goals were more than any other Islander's total goals, save for John Tavares.
The Poem
You came out of nowhere
Or so some fools (me) thought
Did nothing but score here
In the corners you fought
Into a winter-long party
Cheers to Garth's minors mining
And grazie, Dean Lombardi
The Grade
Here's where you vote your grade on a player based on your preseason expectations. That way we don't penalize a 5th-defenseman for merely being a 5th-defenseman, and so on. Which makes the grading of Matt Moulson fun, because, well, ... I mean, who knew, right?
Further discussion: Tell me, how many goals will Moulson score in 2010-11? There might be line changes; there might be less luck; or hey, he might even get better.
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10
no question, and whoever voted the 1 really should come out of the woodwork and face the music.
I think he can get up into the 40 range next season. If the PP’s improved and he keeps playing down low getting those dirty goals. Also the Chemistry between him and JT is only going to get better. Some of the JT to Moulson goals were just sick sick passes from JT.
I mean really, check out this goal from the end of the season. Just insane.
The Islanders went from Marty McInnis and a 2nd Overall pick to Jesse Joensuu.
Ahh, that goal was so glorious
Glorious play. More, please!
It reminds me of Frans Nielsen’s quote when asked about one of those JT passes: “Oh, sick. That’s what he do.”
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8
I had high hopes for him after his good preseason and with JT as his center but i never thought he’d pot 30. As JT progresses Moulson will benefit from a more consistent center so hopefully he’ll pot another 30 next year.
And whoever voted that 1, it must be a joke for the 92 goals.
I wanted Martin to make the team last season over Moulson
Good thing I’m not a GM.
Anyways, I think it’s safe to say that Moulson exceded my expectations. Hard to say whether or not it’s safe to assume he’ll repeat last seasons performance. Lots of Moulson’s goals came off of rebounds and junk in front. He got thirty this season but it was a hard thirty. He doesn’t have a blinding shot to complement his pick up work.
With that said my hope is that Moulson gets moved down to the second line this season. The Isles have to find a way to get a first line goal scorer off the UFA heap to complement Okposo and Tavares.
Having a second line of Comeau, Bailey and Moulson isn’t too shabby.
As for that goal scorer off the UFA heap? I’m gonna go with my last seasons wish list choice of Max Afenigenov who really is tailor made for Gordon’s system!!!!
This is what we would be looking at for the top two lines.
Okposo, Tavares, Afinogenov
Last seasons point produduction for each; G 19, A 33, P 52/ G 24, A 30 P 54/ G 24 , A 37, P 61
Comeau, Bailey, Moulson,
Last seasons point production, G 17, A 18, P 35/ G 16, A 19, P 35/ G 30, A 18 P 48
Now looking at this scenerio I go into it expecting Moulson and Afenigenov to have a fall off . I would pencil in Afenigenov for about 51 pts and Moulson for about 25 pts. Furthremore, given that Tavares, Bailey and Okposo are still developing I would expect their production to go up ten points apiece. I don’t thinkit too much of a stretch to expect about 25 goals from Okposo, 22-25 goals from Bailey and roughly 30-34 from Tavares. That rounds out five of our top six at a minimum of 20 goals apiece on the season.
That’s looking like a playoff bound team.
The bread and butter is what else you can expect from the Defense and the supplemental scoring off the third and fourth lines.
Otherwise that’s not too shabby a team to enter the season with.
Personally, I’d rather keep Moulson – Tavares together, and move Okposo down. I love Okposo, and his play tends to be infectious. If Moulson and Tavares and another top winger can force the play going into the zone on the first line, the Okposo on the 2nd can help with his forecheck to force defensive mistakes in the offensive zone.
The Islanders went from Marty McInnis and a 2nd Overall pick to Jesse Joensuu.
My thing with placing Okposo on the second line
is that his game is compromised with the drop in minutes. The best thing about Okposo is that as teams start to cheat and double up Tavares, Okposo is going to have tons of space to work with. Okposo, by virtue of size and gameplay alone, is pretty tough to contain. For the most part, having a guy like that on your top line, keeps everyone else honest.
The last thing opposing team want is to give a guy like Okposo time and space to drive the slot. I would also think the signing of a guy like Afenigenov, who even on his worst nights it’s still pretty dangerous, give the top line another option and prevents guys like Hunter, Weight and maybe Martin from getting exposed playing top line minutes.
I think the biggest problem this team has getting decent return at the trade deadline is the fact that guys like Bergenheim, Park, Hunter, Weight, Sim etc have to play top line minutes and don’t have the skill set for those spots. The weakness in their games gets exposed whereas the limited ice time and restricted roles of the third and fourth line give you limited glimpses. Plus their games are more suited to those roles.
Moulson I kinda see as a guy who really should get second line minutes. If this team were ever to move him for a crack at a top prospect from another team, no one is going to pay first line price for him. His +/- is also going to look a lot better playing with Bailey who does a better job covering for mistakes and fewer minutes each game.
No way he gets moved as long as he is producing for one simple reason...
the conversation Garth does NOT want to have:
JT: I was going to stick with the Isles, I really was. But then you traded my childhood buddy after he’d scored 30 goals for you. That’s when I decided to Kessel you.
10
Without a doubt. I just want to know who the two people are that voted 1 and what Moulson did to one of their relatives to receive that score.
R.I.P. Hans und Franz... this is the price of professionalism.
10
From a maybe-will-make-the-roster to 30 goal scorer? Sounds like a 10 to me. To be fair, I count “before the season” as before the preseason as well. It’d probably be too much to ask Garth to come up with another pickup like this, but hey, he had two last year. Here’s hoping for continued success for Matty Mo.
By the way, who else is positively giddy about this upcoming Nielsen report card? Promise me, Dom, promise me there are Spinal Tap references!
Your wish is my command.
(With Moulson grading out this high so far, maybe Nielsen’s poll should go up to 11?)
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Now you have to do this, it just goes with your love of Nielsen. You can even make the comment next to 11 be something like “If you don’t vote for this, Dom will find out where you live. You won’t like that…”
The Islanders went from Marty McInnis and a 2nd Overall pick to Jesse Joensuu.
Dom was a mild mannered blogger. But after exposure to a gamma bomb, he now becomes the Incredible Hulk. You wouldn’t like him when he’s angry. Vote Nielsen.
R.I.P. Hans und Franz... this is the price of professionalism.
by David Hanssen on Jun 20, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
10
Not sure I agree with your “two way” assessment but he was great, nonetheless.
He actually does have great two-way skills
coming from Mike Schafer’s defense-first, defense-next, did I mention defense?, system. Obviously, his gift is finding the net, but if the Isles build up with other first line caliber players, I could also see him contributing as a great shut-down forward.
Not that I don’t hope he becomes a perennial 25-30 goal scorer. :-)
I think my bonafides as Moulson Maven are well established
I saw his profile on HF after the Isles drafted him and before I knew he and JT were best buds…and figured he would be special as JT’s wingman. If Dom can dig up the comparison piece I did between JT and Matt and the Espo line, that will make the case.
An NHL.COM writer dismissed the notion that a former 9th round pick would be JT’s linemate or that he (Matt) would put up Wayne Cashman’s numbers. The writer has already been proven wrong on the first point. As for the second, the Cashman Count is currently:
241—494—733 to go. Matt, you keep scoring and I’ll keep counting!
If Dom can dig up the comparison piece I did between JT and Matt and the Espo line, that will make the case.
Was it a comment or a Fanpost/Fanshot? If it was an FP/FS you can always view all of them by hitting Manange Fanposts or Manage Fanshots. It’s a bit tougher (especially when you have nearly 5K comments) to view all your comments, but it’s doable.
The Islanders went from Marty McInnis and a 2nd Overall pick to Jesse Joensuu.
here is the fanshot
our buddies at You Tube have removed the Espo legends video because they like to share but not really so much:
http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2009/8/18/993350/mr-tavares-meet-your-new-linemates
9. 1st liner?
Based on hot preseason and early tear maybe he could have gotten 40!( I think the poll soring descriptors may be a little leading- no one really expected 30- but does that automatically rank a 10?). Not sure Matt belongs on the top line long term. He never scored 30 goals in an AHL season. He’ll make an invaluable 2nd liner counted on to contribute 25ish goals a year. Fantastic find for Snow. Our top six forwards are rounding out nicely. Now if only we could find a power forward with strong offence to play with JT. Connolly anyone?
Draft Connolly, we need more offence- Don't gimme no hip.
he's a good candidate to be moved
no, not traded, but moved from one line to another (1st to 2nd and back) based on slumps and whatnot. lines get cold from time to time, and sometimes it takes a winger swap to get them going – he seems like the guy who would fit that bill. someone who consistently shoots over 10% is a good commodity to have, and can help break a center out of a slump.
i’ll go with a safe prediction of 22-25 goals this year, maybe a few more assists than last season. would love to see 30-35, and if he does, it means that Tavares in turn (as his primary center) will also have improved too.
I am new to the nation, but not new to being an Islanders’ fan. With that said, let’s be honest here, Moulson will have an extremely rough challenge to meet last year’s production. i would count on a goal total of around 17-21 goals and be satisfied with that. he is no longer a sleeper and with that comes higher expectations. The isles would need to pick up a strong scoring winger for moulson to match anything close to last year, because he is no longer unknown.
10
I had the pleasure of watching Moulson all the way through his college career at Cornell. He’s an oustanding guy and one of my favorite all-time players — for him to do it for my favorite pro team has been heaven.
He will repeat if given the opportunity.
10
Anyone that can score a hatrick upon a family members text request deserves some credit.
Actually, I think it was the attitude/desire that he expressed when he was asked about being on the Isles. It seems that when he was told to play like every game was going to be his last he took that to heart. It is hard not to appreciate a player like that. Steve Webb is another fine example of that work ethic/mindset.
Sending the Isles to China was Wang's vision of making Strange Brew 2: Stranger Brew.
It seems that when he was told to play like every game was going to be his last he took that to heart. It is hard not to appreciate a player like that. Steve Webb is another fine example of that work ethic/mindset.
So true! He really is like Stevie in that regard, only with a lot more scoring skills and less hitting.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jun 21, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
