Who do we take at #5 if Fowler and Grudbranson are gone?
by Judgegavel on May 2, 2010 10:01 AM EDT
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PrintI think the title pretty much says it all. Latest mock drafts I've seen have us taking Gormley at 5, and I have to say that is my least favorite option. As you all may know from my posts I really think we need a top six forward over defense. That being said I understand Fowler and Grudbranson are special players, ones we really shouldn't pass on if there, even if we need a forward more. I really think Gormley is a step down from those two, and doesn't give us a prospect any better than Hamonic or DeHaan. I'm not entirely sold on Connolly considering the injury issues. My pick is definitely Nino here, I think he may be a very special player who has the potential to be as good if not better than Hall or Seguine, he simply dominated at the juniors, we've just only seen it for one season. What are your thoughts?
El Nino
Brandon Gormley
Brett Connolly
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FYI, Judge I think you have two versions of the Nino video there. Not sure which Gormley one you intended to use, but here’s one.
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Connolly’s injury saga worries me, but if there were a crystal ball to determine he won’t have hip issues in the future, then he’d be my guy based on everything I’ve read and the little I’ve watched.
It will be interesting what kind of spin comes out about his health after the combine. I imagine there will be reports and counter-reports on that topic.
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Gudbranson is probably the ideal choice for the Isles
As I have said before, if Connolly is still on the board when we pick, there is probably a very good reason for it—Florida and Columbus feeling his injury history is too heavy baggage to carry. I like Gormley a lot but Nino is just too good to pass up, so I would have to go with him. BTW, as I have noted, Ranger fans all have the Nino lust big time and if Sather shares that, keeping him out of a Ranger uni would be another good reason to draft him!!! I am hopeful that a Draft Day trade can move us up into the first round again to get a forward or defenseman depending on who our first pick is.
I dont agree with what your saying about Connolly. I mean yes he may slip because of injury concern, but I can also see a team passing on him simply because they have Fowler or Grudbranson ranked higher. Its not like Columbus or Florida don’t need defense help. If he’s there at 7 or 8 yes, but even if he wasn’t injured this year there was a chance he was still dropping to 5. Still like Nino better, but I’d prefer they take Connolly over Gormley, unless his hip doesn’t check out.
their bigger need is offense
they are both well stocked with defensive prospects. Chances are they won’t pass on him unless they are worried about his health and were not convinced by his Combine performance.
I should say that
chances are they won’t BOTH pass on him unless they have concerns that the Combine did not allay. Connolly is very much an all or nothing gamble. McGuire compared him to Foppa and he could have thrown Bossy into the mix. There were concerns about Foppa’s injury history going into the draft and many teams passed on Bossy as too fragile. Their concerns weren’t wholly unjustified. Both players’ careers were shortened by injuries, but the Nordiques / Avalanche and Islanders were more than happy with what they got. If Connolly is another Foppa / Bossy, his team will accept that deal as well. The problem is that his career may never get off the ground due to injuries and that would be a disaster for whoever picks him.
Good post, BC.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on May 3, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
I see where you are coming from and don't necessarily disagree with taking a forward
However, the D prospects that we can get within the first 12 picks (that is an arbitrary # that I am guessing on) are necessary to help develop a strong D line for years to come. With the way that the farm system has been devestated we could use some D to help augment the size of the system and since it takes a little longer to develop a D man I could see the Isles moving out of the 5th to get a couple more picks and taking one of the 200 lbs D men left on the board. I can’t see them taking Gormley as they already have deHaan and he seems to be more of the same, perhaps less talented.
I fully agree with you on the Connolly statement in that if he is still there by 5 then there must be a common thread amongst the evaluations from each team’s physician(s). I really wish that the Isles were in a position to gamble where they could try him out but with the rebuild situation that simply can’t happen…unless they are convinced of his health. This could be a really interesting draft based on that fact alone.
Joe Thornton should be drug tested or checked to see if an imposter has taken over his jersey.
by metalcoconut on May 18, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually I think that Gormley is more talented than De Haan
and bigger. He is the same in being very smart, quick thinking, and efficient in moving the puck. If I were to compare the top three, Fowler is Mark Green, Gudbranson is Dion Phaneuf before his game went south, and Gormley is Mark Streit only bigger.
I am coming around to the idea of drafting Nino. I am hopeful that Garth can trade for a late first rounder, move it up to the mid first and get McIlrath. Then, next year, we might have a shot at David Musil (see my fanshot) and that should give us all the defensive talent we need to be a Cup contender.
Well I haven’t seen a lot of Gormley to measure the two but he is still a little small in accordance to what the Isles are looking for and for some reason Gormley v deHaan just feels like a repeat of the Luongo v DP fiasco. I realize that we agree on the point that the Isles may elect to bypass Gormley but who they take is yet to be figured out.
Being that Snow has already publicly declared that he is aiming for the playoffs this year I can see you being correct about drafting a forward with the first pick. I feel that if they have a shot at trading 1,2,3 times to pick up some extra picks and get a big D guy that could benefit them in the long run, they should do it. Get some teams to overpay for a questionable talent, benefit on playing the numbers game and draft multiple players while still taking a player that is talented enough to make an impact down the road if not immediately.
Joe Thornton should be drug tested or checked to see if an imposter has taken over his jersey.
by metalcoconut on May 18, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Gormley is 6'3" and at least 190
Same height as Gudbranson and only about 5 pounds lighter. Since they are both 17, hard to say how they will fill out. It is reasonable to expect that they will both be bigger than Streit. Both are already bigger than De Haan. Main difference between him and Gudbranson is style of play as opposed to size.
I would guess that, apart from Hall, none of the players in this draft are mortal locks to make their team’s roster the first year—although some undoubtedly will. In Nino’s case, I would say that at the very least he makes it very tough for Gordon not to put him on the roster and if he goes back, it will only be for a year.
Connolly.
I trust CB on Nino.
Fiya Minaya.
CB = The Bottman himself
(Chris Botta)
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on May 2, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
OK but as I recall
his position was that none of the other possible top ten picks would likely measure up to Taylor and Tyler. I am not so sure about that and, in any event, I am fairly confident that I know as much if not more than Botta about Nino. For one thing, I would be willing to bet that he has never seen Nino play in live action.
While that might very well be true, I think Bottas point was that many of those hysterical over the kid know even less about him than he does!
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on May 3, 2010 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions
If I remember correctly though
his main point wasn’t to knock Nino as much as it was to assert that the field was, in his view, Taylor, Tyler, and everybody else. He would especially take issue with Judge’s assertion that Nino will be as good as Taylor or Tyler. I think that Taylor is the most NHL-ready of the prospects, is a LW, and was Josh’s linemate. All of these considerations make him the ideal pick for the Islanders. Since he’ll be gone when Garth picks, I think getting Gudbranson and completing the top pairing is our first choice and, failing that, Nino is our second.
ISS ranking update
By the way, ISS’s latest list includes changes after the U-18 tourney. Some risers and droppers there.
They have Gormley at #3, Nino at #6, and Connolly at #13.
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interesting
and very different from the CSS Top 30:
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=524284
ISS’s placing of Nino is more reasonable. No way to know how the teams assess these guys. ISS was impressed with Teemu, but still didn’t see him as a first rounder. In any event, would like to see him as our second pick.
i dont trust this list, the ISS website has the march 15th list which is quite different
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It reflects the U-18 tourney that happened since then
At least in their view. (I’m always amused that we shouldn’t judge established NHLers after a poor 30 days, yet they’re supposed to change their ranking of 17-year-olds because of one tournament!) It’s also posted at TSN.
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Just underscores the perils of ranking 17 year old talent
In the end, the rankings that really count are those of the drafting teams—which we don’t know.
Have you watched any of the "behind the draft" specials?
To that point, a few of them bring the viewer a little closer, after the fact, to how a team was thinking. We still don’t know of course, but some give a window into the process at least. The one on the Blues showed a lot of internal discussion on body type (with their S&C coach evaluating each prospect) and what they saw in a player’s character. I think it related to either the 07 or 08 draft.
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yeah, saw that last year
what I meant was that, as the De Haan pick—among others—proves, published rankings are of limited value when assessing who a team is likely to pick.
Oh yeah, I agree
It’s frustrating to be in the dark on it (particularly when a player goes early, and we don’t know if as in de Haan’s case there really were others thinking of him in the early teens). It’s just fun to get a window after the fact. Teams are scared of looking bad, of course, so most won’t share too much until way way down the line.
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There was speculation that Minnesota was looking at De Haan
and was thrown for a loop when we picked him. I think they expected us to pick Kassian. I was hoping for Kulikoff. Kassian seems to have some issues with that one square foot of real estate.
I think you take the very best player available
Those ISS rankings are interesting but just emphasize the fact that everything is subjective.
I commented after the WJC that I thought Nino was special and that we should look at him, but that was when the “streak” was suggesting that we would be drafting in the 8-10 range. My comment (jokingly, obv… OK half jokingly) was that even when his team was badly outmanned and being dominated, he looked like the best player on the ice and that he would fit in quite well around the Isle.
If Connelly is 100% absolutely healthy, I think he’s the pick, but there lies the rub….
All naysaying aside, Brandon Gormley is an absolute monster in the Q. He’s the type of “get out of my kitchen” defenceman we haven’t had in a long time. This can be seen as he leads the Wildcats past the SeaDogs in the Q final. Whether this can be carried over to the NHL remains to be seen, but that’s the joy of drafting 18 year olds.
I like Gormley a lot. I like Nino, but not as much as some around here. I like Connelly (or maybe more accurately, I love the dream of what Connelly could become if he is and stays healthy).
It’s not as clear cut as you might think, and the problem is that it could work or not. Garth will wear this pick and the wrong one could set us back in the build (note that we are out of the "re"build phase — it’s time to start crafting a winner, not just a team that competes). Pressure’s on….
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on May 4, 2010 8:45 AM EDT reply actions
Great stuff
I like Connelly (or maybe more accurately, I love the dream of what Connelly could become if he is and stays healthy).
Heh, indeed.
That was interesting to see ISS put Gormley as the top blueliner. It’s funny how the rep always falls along WHL for D-men, OHL for forwards, Q for goalies. So does that mean he’s all the more impressive for rising above that … or something else? Oh, 18-year-olds.
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I think that when you are talking about Gudbranson, Nino, Gormley, Fowler, and maybe Connolly
they are close enough to each other in ability that you can throw out BPA and look at team needs. Gudbranson is probably the player this team needs the most as a top pairing guy along with De Haan. He is the most physical of the top three defenders in this draft and he has the fire in the gut that a champion needs. Nino also has it and he would be my next choice.
As I have said before, if Florida and Columbus, with their offensive woes, both pass on Connolly then it is definitely a caveat emptor situation. We are still in the rebuild phase and are a few pieces away from a finished product. I doubt whether picking any of the other players I mentioned would set the rebuild back. Some might be more helpful than others. If Connolly’s health is suspect, picking him WOULD be a big setback. A very risky pick. He may fall back in the first round as a result.
On Gormley
At Ryan Kennedy’s (THN) Hot List:
Amazing how being steady can work out so well for some young folk. Gormley, whose Wildcats hold a 2-0 series edge in the ‘Q’ final over Saint John, has been humming along with 17 points in 17 post-season games. Meanwhile, his competition for the top defenseman selected this summer – Windsor’s Cam Fowler and Kingston’s Erik Gudbranson – met with adversity in the OHL playoffs and world under-18s, respectively. Gormley was always the safest pick, now he might be the best, too.
Gormley’s still playing thanks to Q playoffs, so he’ll get the last, longest look. The more I read about this draft, the more confident I am we can’t really go wrong with a top-5 pick.
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Of course,
that may result in Florida picking him. The other thing is Cullen was pushing Hamonic as a top pairing guy. If Garth and Co see it that way, maybe they go with Nino. The one way we could go wrong is if we pick Connolly and he has all manner of injury woes.
BTW
second set of NHL.COM mock drafts ALL have FL picking Gudbranson…for whatever that is worth. Two of them have Teemu going in the 20-25 area of the first round.
I noticed that
“Big, strong, nasty” being the word of the day.
(For reference for others, the nhl.com mocks are here.)
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Botta seems to be pushing Connolly
Thing is…let’s assume that he will have a long and healthy career, He has had one junior season (last year) where he put up significant stats, He was 30-30-60. Nino matched that this year (36-24-60) in his first appearance in North America and had three previous years with a point or more per game with Davos, Granted Nino had a better supporting cast in Portland and the opposition might not have been as tough in Switzerland. i just do not get how Connolly has proven himself to be a better forward than Nino. And if you throw in the injury, it seems like a no brainer to me.
connolly’s the top 10 with the most question marks around him, so it makes sense to start with him article wise, i’m 100% positive he’ll be writing about all of the potential picks individually, including nino
i just do not get how Connolly has proven himself to be a better forward than Nino
it’s just circumstance BC, the scouts have had connolly on the radar for much longer than nino, swap their birthplaces and the situation would certainly be different, but you need to remember nino was buried mid-2nd round this time last year, that he’s in the top 10 talk is pretty insane if you think about it, and certainly is proof of the player he is and the talent the scouts see in him – plus, we both know there’s a 50/50 chance nino goes before brett anyway
who knew that when the court takes your license away, they ACTUALLY take you license away??? (now how am i supposed to provide proof of ID???)
I doubt Botta is pushing Connolly
He subscribes to the “Isles will take best player, forward or D” theory. Like bob said, Botta will probably interview every top prospect he gets access to, and Connolly (or his agent) — given his injury history — is probably the most eager to make his case.
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we'll see
He sure seemed to dump all over Nino—even if it was in the context of pushing Taylor and Tyler.
Oh, I think you’re right there — in the context of Connolly vs. Nino. I was thinking about Botta’s stance on Connolly vs. one of the defensemen ranked up there.
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many are saying Gormley is better defensively than Fowler or Gudbranson. Offensive upside definitely not as high as Fowler though.
I should add that
Gormley has been moving up at the expense of Gudbranson and Fowler because he has maintained a point a game record in post-season while they have struggled. Again, I like Gormley, but I think Gudbranson is more the guy we need. So this could work to the Islanders advantage if it leaves Gudbranson on the board for Garth to select.
Yeah, it seems to go like this every year. The kid that stays in the playoffs longest (and does well) gets more exposure. It’s like free PR once the other kids are done.
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I like Gormley
He certainly fits the Streit—De Haan mold of a smart disciplined superb athlete who always makes good decisions. I just think that De Haan will need a big fire-breathing dragon alongside him on the blueline—and Gudbranson is that guy. The sole caveat is if Garth and Co see Hamonic as that guy as Cullen does.
Interesting question
Can you plan for a guy who complements de Haan? Or do you take the guy who’s best all-around because de Haan might not ever work out as well as they hope? Or further, can a team even plan on Hamonic being that fire-breather guy? (Just musing aloud at philosophical team-building questions here)
I guess I’m confident Hamonic can be that type, but whether he can do it against the best opposition or just do it in a 3-4 role is the open question.
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Well...
thats tough I don’t think you can plan that specific. And at this point I think Hamonic simply based on his game and size is more of a lock to reach his potential than DeHaan. I like Gudbranson the best out of the three D picks, because he is that dragon, and is the biggest lock to be that. I like Fowler over Gormley, because I think Fowler can really be something special if he reaches his potential, he may not have Gormley’s consistency, but he has an ability to take a game over.
I say we draft the best player, but I think all five are very, very close. So two major factors come in, how will they fit your team, and how are you defining best. I mean you have Fowler, and Connolly (and maybe even Nino although he might be more in the middle of the two) on the side of higher potential, and to me Grudbranson and Gormley on the side more likely to succeed/consistent.
by Judgegavel on May 9, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Of course,
the critical thing is how the management and scouting staff for our team as well as Florida and Columbus see these players. Probably the player for whom the Combine is MOST critical is Connolly. If he is an animal there and is at or near the top in a number of categories, he may well be gone before the Isles pick. If he disappears at the Combine, he may well drop like a stone.
After Taylor and Tyler, I see these players as roughly equal:
Gudbranson, Fowler, Gormley, Connolly, Nino, Etem, Tarasenko, Burmistrov, and Johansen. Maybe you throw Pysyk into the mix as well.
To me, BPA is not as much of a consideration. If a team thinks McFarland or Merrill, for example, is as good or better, they trade down. I suspect that the Isles, like a lot of teams not having one of the top three picks, have a list that might include, say, Gudbranson, Nino, and Gormley. I suspect they have prioritized them in terms of potential and fit with organizational needs and will pick the first guy on their list who is available at #5.
But now if Connolly checks out 100%
and does great at the combine, I still don’t know if I’m sold on him over Nino (or even over Fowler). I’ll admit I’ve seen very little of Connolly aside from highlight tape, but that highlight tape has been amazing. I’d still probably want him over Gormley though. I guess with Gormely, I’m thinking your getting good not great (although he may be the surest thing), with the others they all have potential to be the best player in the draft.
to me, they are all comparable
just different kinds of players. Fowler = Mike Green, Gudbranson = Chris Pronger, Gormley = Mark Streit. Any GM with a brain would be happy to get any one of them.
The problem with Connolly is that there is so little to judge. He has had one good season and little else to judge by. Some scouts seem sold, but I wonder what they would say if they were GM.
I really don’t think Gormley is close to that (Streit) talented offensively, I also think Fowlers not on the Mike Green level (although who is), I liken him more to Scott Neidermeyer in his prime..
I am speaking of the type of players they are
Whether they will play to the level of the players I have compared them to (or that anybody else has) only time will tell. But I could see all three developing into players very comparable to the ones I connected them with.
Put this in a e-capsul for 2020
Dom, you should save all these pre-draft posts and pull them out again in 5 or 10 years after all of these players mentioned above have either become stars on not. It would be a real trip to read this and see how right on or way off we were with our assessments of these kids.
Definitely
(And that’s not a warning to anyone … just fun stuff.)
Hell, sometimes I have to laugh when I stumble on something I wrote 10 months ago, much less five years.
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Who's this years Scott Scissions and Peter Bondra?
To link this topic with the post that Webard created with draft busts…if there were blogs back in 1990 it would have been interesting to hear what fans (or any scouts for that matter) thought about Scott Scissions and if Peter Bondra was even on any fans radar prior to the draft that summer.
I am reminded, once again, of what EJ McGuire said
He said he envied pro football scouts looking at 22 year olds. Judging 17 year olds is far more problematic.
Oh man
If there were blogs back in 1990 we’d have some amazing stuff on the draft. It was practically the wild West back then compared to how much info and scrutiny is out there now. I doubt we’ll ever have a really disappointing #1 or even #2 or 3 pick anymore. They’re too well followed.
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That was a really bad draft for the Isles when you look at it...
We had one of only 4 misses in the first round at #6, plus we take Taylor in the second with a bunch of future all stars going after him.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
