Wilpons and MLS re-open Negotiations about Queens-based Franchise
As discussed a couple of days ago, for the Wilpons its either the Isles or MLS and not both. Once thought to be dead, it looks like the Wilpons are back in serious discussions to purchase a second NY soccer franchise. Here's the quote from MLS commish Don Garber that has the biggest Islanders implications:
bq. "They're still trying to figure out what they might be able to do with the land outside Citi Field. There are very few places to have a stadium in the New York metropolitan area; Queens is one of those prime locations and we'd love to see if we can try to make something work there.''
Basically he said they will build the stadium right where the arena for the Islanders would be. Discuss.
about 2 years ago
David Hanssen
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Do you have something else?
Because all this says is that MLS is interested in the CitiField site, not that there are any specific negotiations.
Wilpon has expressed his interest too though
It’s a little alarming (from an Isles/Queens leverage perspective) to hear MLS remain that intent on getting it done. They’re going to keep pushing, I suppose, which means they may make it easier from their standpoint on Wilpon.
Oh, what a long saga this is gonna be. Dammit.
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he's also expressed his interest in the Islanders
I have a feeling that this is just a ploy. The article says nothing about MLS negotiating with Wilpon. Wilpon wants a tenant for his space. I suspect that he wants the Islanders as that tenant. Any noise about MLS is likely a ploy to push Wang into moving quickly.
I don't read it that way
There’s a pretty good history of him flirting with MLS. The history of him flirting with the Isles is much more recent.
Now, the NHL and MLB have opposite seasons, whereas MLS and MLB overlap completely, but I wouldn’t interpret MLS as just noise.
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Getting the Isles and the Ranger-Islander rivalry
to match the Yankee-Met rivalry would be a much bigger deal than an MLS franchise. And if he has a history of flirting with MLS as you put it and hasn’t done anything, that makes me think even more that it is just noise. Or, more accurately, gamesmanship which Wang seems to thrive on anyway.
It's way too soon to tell
MLS has been eyeing a 2nd team in NY for a while, but the challenge, as always, has been a stadium. They needed to get a soccer-specific one built for their existing team first (which they finally did this year, and of course it’s in New Jersey). A second team couldn’t have happened any sooner.
If I were a mogul, which I’m not, I’d think a multi-use arena is a far more useful venue than a second outdoor stadium in my empire. But if I were betting on the future and profits from the actual sports team, I’d be pretty tempted by MLS.
Regardless, the Islanders-to-Queens rumors don’t really have any more legs or history than MLS-to-Queens does. You can’t call one noise without calling the other one the same, because in either case there’s just some talk + interest + a whole lot of hoops to jump through to secure either one.
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I would think that having the Islanders in there would be his first choice
I suspect that he would only go with MLS if the Isles fell through. And why would you assume MLS would be more profitable? They only have a 30 game regular season, barely more than 1/3 as many games. DC United, as successful a franchise as any, has had average attendance figures ranging between 16 and 20K the last five years. By 2015, the Isles will surely be successful enough that they will be at or near capacity for most games and increased access to mass transit should boost attendance even more. If we assume a capacity of 18K which is about what the Pru’s is, that means nearly 3X the events with comparable draw. And this is NY where hockey is likely to be bigger than soccer now and forever. Don’t see MLS being more profitable, esp with TV rights and concessions.
The payrolls, for one
MLS is cost-controlled, (heh, and actually has ESPN TV deals), and is a growth sport in both countries. The whole model is built on not letting player compensation grow out of whack. There’s tons of room for growth there, and population demographics continue to favor soccer more than hockey. Not sure the Isles can ever be a big money-maker, wherever they end up.
Now from a venue standpoint, operating an arena is certainly better than a second outdoor stadium — assuming you can get good events there over the Garden. The decision is hardly all in Wilpon’s hands though. If he can and wants to play ball with MLS, he has a team; if he can and wants to with the NHL, he has to wait and might get nothing.
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Not convinced that soccer will be as big as hockey in NY
and I think that Wang and Bettman are at the point where they are tired of playing footsie with the ToH and now the County. Queens is a better location and the government is more supportive.
Not saying you’re wrong, but the Nassau County government was once more supportive, too. Entities change between when they solicit offers and when it comes time to decide. Right now of course the Queens EDC are going to trumpet it as an option — they want bidders, they want the best possible choices, and they still don’t have final say.
So although a lot of the peripherals look logical, I’m not convinced it will be any easier for Wang to go this way; he’s probably right to keep his cards close, much as it keeps us gnashing our teeth.
As far as soccer in New York, it all depends. But soccer is cheaper and immigrant-friendly, so it’s a great long-term play.
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Call it the Dodger-Giant factor
but I have been following sports in NY for nearly 50 years and I have never seen the kind of bad blood between a franchise and the City that exists between Wang and the ToH. I really don’t see that ever happening.
Between Bloomberg and Wilpon, they will go to the mat to make it happen if Wang committs. Not saying there won’t be any obstacles, but if Wang works with them, I am convinced it will happen.
I should add that
folks have been predicting a demographic swing in favor of soccer for 2-3 decades now and it hasn’t happened. I like soccer but I don’t see it ever gaining that kind of traction here. Hockey may not be a big deal in other parts of the country, but it always will be bigger in NY. Certainly bigger than MLS.
It has happened though
It’s just happened a lot slower than they predicted. People used to make the youth soccer argument — “Look at how many kids play!” which was a misread — but the immigration argument is a reality, and it’s helping support MLS teams in several markets.
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but to what extent?
DC United is the class of MLS. They have a 45K plus facility…and are lucky to average 16k in average attendance. the Isles have been the dregs of the NHL the last few years with legendary bad management until recently and competing with two other franchises in their market. They are only a few thousand off DC’s average attendance, have 41 home games vs 15, and I am confident that they have a MUCH better cable deal than DC. I just do not see it.
Single-team attendance figures don't really do it.
Per team, MLS is now drawing as well or better than NHL.
To your point, DC United has more titles but has certainly had its bad stretches, including the present — and where do you get they’re “lucky” to draw 16k? They’ve been well over that for most years in their existence. Their stadium is a worse place to watch soccer than any NHL arena is to watch hockey, and using % capacity is also incredibly misleading (e.g. How many NHL teams would fill a 40k venue?)
Isn’t Canada even worried about a drop in hockey participation (by percentage of population) as demographics change? Aren’t the major Canadian cities eagerly joining MLS?
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people in general write off the MLS way too quick for sure, 75k filled the new giants stadium last week, for mex/ecuador … in queens the stadium would hold what? 25k? – maybe less… do they have a lot of soccer loving hispanics in queens? hmm… hispanic night is usually close to sold out and i do believe behind home plate the ads say mets.com and losmets.com so yeah, i think wilpon has an idea he can fill that soccer park up
who knew that when the court takes your license away, they ACTUALLY take you license away??? (now how am i supposed to provide proof of ID???)
If Queens were an independent city and not a borough of NYC, it would be the most diverse in the nation. And it’s not just hispanics, the Russian, Ukranian, Hungarian, Czechs, Poles, various Africans and Asian nationalities all present are big footy fans as well. Add into that the diversity of Brooklyn and the following of soccer on Long Island, the MLS wants those audiences. NYRB draw about 80-85% from New Jersey, so from the MLS’ perspective Queens, Brooklyn and LI are unclaimed territory.
Mighty Mighty Metro!
by David Hanssen on May 18, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
It is very diverse
and no doubt many there are avid fans of football in their own countries. Not convinced that they would be paying customers for an MLS franchise—especially one that will likely be a loser early on.
I disagree. Having attended many, many NYRB/Metrostars games I can tell you that the crowds there are very diverse and many immigrants/1st generation supporters. And lets be honest, they’re supporting a very star-crossed franchise in Metro.
With the two DP slots, they make a couple of shrewd signings targeted at the population in the area (Like the Fire did with Piotr Nowak in the beginning or more recently Cauthemoc Blanco) I think they would draw very well.
Mighty Mighty Metro!
by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
disagree all you wish
numbers don’t lie. They had a very good year their first year, 1996. However, including that year, they have exceeded last year’s average NHL attendance of 17,468 only four out of 14 years. Last year they were horrendous with less than 13,000—much worse than the Islanders who were last in their division and competing with two other NY area franchises.
Numbers require context though
And there’s a boatload of context involved when you’re comparing attendance from a league’s startup years to that of the NHL through all its peaks and valleys.
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problem is
the MS peaked years ago. You could have made a case for them in their early history. The last year that they exceeded last year’s average NHL attendance was 2002. They have had seven straight years of attendance below last year’s NHL average. The Isles’ attendance this year was worse than I thought it would be, but it was still about 500 a game better than the MS.
Here’s the thing on the attendance numbers that are deceptive as well – they don’t take into account the US Open Cup and friendlies. For example, Metro will play at a minimum of 3 games at home in the USOC and a minimum of 5 and a maximum of 6 friendlies this season. While the USOC games might not be that big a draw, the friendlies were (Santos) and will be (Juventus, Man City, Tottenham and/or Sporting Lisbon and Cruzerio) at capacity or near capacity. Add into that events like the Turkey vs. Czech Republic match, the Churchill Cup, Rugby 7’s, USA Soccer matches, and concerts, a 20 K capacity soccer stadium similar to RBA would get same or greater revenue than an indoor arena.
There are so many more events, sporting and otherwise, than a stadium like that can hold over an indoor one. No matter how good the indoor stadium is, it will be performer’s second choice to MSG for concerts, and would be in competition with the new Nets Brooklyn arena as well.
Mighty Mighty Metro!
by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
all of that doesn't change the fact that
MS attendance has been significantly below the NHL average for seven straight years. Actually I suspect that an indoor arena in that location might be very competitive as it would far more convenient for people living in LI, CT, and Westchester than the other two locations.
For Long Island, yes, for Connecticut and Westchester, no it won’t. I’ve lived in Westchester for most of my life. Queens and Long Island are a pain in the ass to get to. MSG is much easier to get to than Willetts Point. It’s a train and a quick subway ride instead of driving on the Hutch, crossing the Whitestone and dealing with the Whitestone Expressway.
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by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
If it was, I’d go to more than one or two Met games a year.
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by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
And all of that
Doesn’t change that very few teams in the NHL are profitable, and the league’s revenues are distorted by roughly 4 to 6 teams that make all the money. If I’m investing and my fortune has been Madoff’d, I’m taking that into consideration.
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How many MLS teams are profitable?
How many have a cable deal as attractive as the Isles do? And even as poor as the MS are in attendance, we are really comparing apples and oranges. The MS are right at a PATH stop and so are very convenient to both NJ and Manhattan. The Isles have no practical mass transit access and even car access is a major pain in the butt. Give them mass transit access comparable to what the MS have now and they will easily draw far more fans.
and assuming such a team WAS more profitable...
unless Wilpon is BUYING the team, what does he care? If he is just looking for a tenant and is paying the freight (or part of it) for building an arena, the thing he cares about are his share of concessions and parking.
With the Isles, he gets at least 41 home games and a gate that is at least comparable per game with what an MLS franchise would bring—only they have 26 fewer regular season games.
And, again, comparing Isles and MS gate is apples and oranges as the MS have an optimum accesibility situation and the Isles have about THE WORST accessibility situation of any pro sports team I can think of. Also, unless we are talking about moving the MS, any new franchise would be competing with them for fans. You might well be looking at four digit gate as opposed to the mid teens.
So, let’s do the math. I think by 2015, this team may have won another Cup and will certainly be a Cup contender. A new arena might seat 18K and they might be packing it every night plus some deep playoff runs.
I will be conservative though. Let’s assume 15K per night for 41 regular season games. That’s 615k fans. Let’s assume that the MLS new franchise matches that (I can’t imagine they will though). That is 225k fans. Which would you rather have parking and concessions for?
according to espn, the isles averaged 12,735 at home,horrendous aint it… now factor in a 20-30% visiting team fan factor… bad news
who knew that when the court takes your license away, they ACTUALLY take you license away??? (now how am i supposed to provide proof of ID???)
IT looks more “horrendous” than it is because they have the smallest arena in the NHL. If they sold out every single ticket to all 41 home games they would still be 20-something out of 30 teams.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on May 22, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
not sure about this year but...
last year, they would have been 23rd. An 18K seat arena would have left them 14th. I suspect, however, that they have a better cable deal than most other clubs.
lucky" to draw 16k? They’ve been well over that for most years in their existence
Actually not so much. For most of their history, their average annual attendance has been 15k or 16k (7X). A few times, it has been 19 or 20k (3X). And MLS would have to greatly outdraw the NHL to offset having barely more than 1/3 the dates.
Hockey up here is as popular as it has ever been. Nothing will change that. NHL teams regularly have capacity crowds as do most junior teams.
My perception is that immigrants tend to be very enthusiatic about their home country national teams (Mexico, for example). Not so sure that will translate to a rabid MLS fanbase.
You said they were “lucky” to average 16k. They’ve been over that — often by 20% — most of their existence.
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To be precise
they have been at or below 16K for 7 out of 16 years. They have been 20% or so above 3x and have been in between 6×. Put it another way: the median NHL attendance last year was 17, 468. DC has been below that 9 of 16 years.
Aren’t the major Canadian cities eagerly joining MLS?
You are correct sir. TFC already in existence, Vancouver Whitecaps next year, Montreal Impact the year after that.
Mighty Mighty Metro!
by David Hanssen on May 18, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn’t saying that, I was just confirming Dom’s point that the MLS is expanding into Canada. I know it won’t comepte with hockey up there, just like footy will never compete with football and baseball south of the 48th.
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by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
DC is a bad example for this arguement. They are not the class of the MLS when it comes to facilities. They still have no permanent arena, about a dozen plans have fallen through and they’re stuck playing in RFK, a stadium not suited for soccer. The uncertainty surrounding the franchise’s future has a lot to do with the poor attendance figures.
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by David Hanssen on May 18, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The LA Galaxy are probably the best example. Only four seasons with an average attendance under 20 K, soccer specific stadium, multiple time MLS champions, six time MLS finalists, multiple time USOC champs, world class training facilities, two legitimate name stars (Becks and Landy-Cakes) and a CONCACAF Champions League Trophy. I would call them the class of the MLS over DC.
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by David Hanssen on May 19, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Granted their figures are good
although I would point out that the combined attendance of the two area NHL franchises easily exceeds even their figures Using the Metrostars as the example, however, they trailed all three NHL franchises in the NY area last year by a considerable number.
I'll be damned
MLS has a history of wanting a market before the ownership is ready; and they usually end up getting what they want.
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
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