2010 vs. 2009: Islanders (and ex-Isles) individual stats
by Dominik on Apr 13, 2010 11:31 AM EDT
in New York Islanders Report Cards
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Tonight we'll have a lottery thread; it'll be posted a couple hours before the anticlimactic big moment, which is scheduled to appear on Versus, TSN, and streaming on nhl.com. If you are unable to see the, um, envelope opening, I'll try to mix some sort of running commentary into the usual game-thread-like banter. If you don't know how the lottery works -- and why they don't just pull out a ball on live TV -- Eric outlines the process here.
As for this post, it's the exercise where we take a gander at the Islanders' individual counting stats (plus Time On Ice and stuff like that), compare it to their performances last year, and also integrate a couple of ex-Islanders who plied their 2009-10 trade with other NHL teams. Different situations, different contexts (how does one account for the Sidney Crosby Effect on Bill Guerin's stats?), but it's still fun to see how The Ones Who Walk Away would fit on the current team's leader board.
Because the table is so big, it appears after the jump. A lot of info there -- Bill Guerin is strangely consistent at his age -- Blake Comeau's powerplay time dropped off this season, yet he has 10 more goals to show for it.
Islanders Individual Stats 2009-10 vs. 2008-09
*Note: For Guerin, Comrie, Campoli, and Sutton, the stats in the year of their trade reflect combined stats for both teams -- except their special teams ice time per game, which reflects only their Isles tenure. Players' roles can change with a new team, so I was more interested in how much special teams time they received on the Isles, and more importantly, which Islanders filled those roles afterward.
It's not the full roster of contributors (and ex-Islanders), but I figure once we get down to 12 points (new regular Andrew MacDonald excepted) on the season, that's enough. A lot of small strides made by the youngsters, while superficially Sean Bergenheim's counting stats were again limited by injury and his deployment on the PK and not the PP.
This post was compiled in various stages of consciousness, so if you see anything that stands out as a possible error -- my eyes started to glaze over -- you can check it against NHL stats and let me know in comments.
* * *
One thing that statheads always bring up: Shooting percentage usually comes back to the mean over time. In other words, Okposo probably won't only shoot 7.6% again. (But there are always variables: Tavares and Moulson get most of their goals from in tight; their higher shooting percentage will likely drop, but not as much as might be expected in the laboratory.)
Another thing you notice at a glance: Whatever individual opportunity Chris Campoli was seeking, he hasn't exactly found it in Ottawa, where he's played less than he did with the Isles. There were hints that he wanted a greater role -- on the powerplay where he was blocked by Streit and Weight, for example -- but in truth his best fit is as a depth defenseman on a decent team. With the Sens heading to the playoffs, he has at least found that.
Others: Much less of Richard Park on the powerplay, which pleases me -- although, ha: The powerplay unit was actually worse this year. ... The forwards who get ample time on both special teams units are clearly the ones Scott Gordon trusts most: So Okposo (too much?), Nielsen. Moulson -- well-rounded hockey players, they.
Anything else stand out for you? There's plenty to dig up, but one more thought: It's been said a bunch already, but my what a difference a year made for Andrew MacDonald.
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Doug Weight!
Wow, only eleven even-strength points, and he was still a plus player. That’s not so bad on a team like the Isles.
I wish it were easier to find Tom Awad’s Goals Versus Threshold numbers and other advanced metrics on a per-team basis. GVT in particular is way too hard to calculate on the go, unless you already have the spreadsheets and formulae all set up, an endeavor that takes a chunk of time.
Heh, if I really were a GM instead of just a frustrated Eastside Hockey Manager player, I’d hire Awad for my club and have him working this stuff up for the front office. Then I’d always know!
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
Yeah, there are a few calculations like that that would be nice to have within arm’s reach. I wonder which ones if any the NHL will ever adopt. Even with the stats the NHL does publish, they could make some of them easier to grab.
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GVT
By the way, if anyone’s interested (and I could probably add this column to the table), GVT for the Isles players is here. Rob Schremp Hockey, baby.
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Great find
Thanks, Dom. Your web fu is mighty. I didn’t think Roli would be barely replacement level, even if he hit a rough patch in shootouts. I love Bailey’s numbers here… second in relative +/- and the team’s strongest defensive forward (tied with Matty Ice, a tick ahead of Frans) as measured in GVT.
Detelf’s 5.3 in a half-season? Sweet.
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
That Behind the Net is irreplaceable.
Yeah, Bailey’s numbers make me wonder why he hasn’t been used on the PK much. Maybe they’re already pleased with his defensive side and they want him honing his offensive side.
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
Well...yeah!
It stands for Goals von Threshold.
GVT does incorporate shootout contribution though, so Frans and RSH are getting a boost there (by how much, I don’t know).
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
Ah-ha...thanks!
I should try reading what I link to.
It’s funny I was reading one of the explanations looking for the figure, and I saw “Val S” come up but did not connect that what I was looking for was RIGHT THERE.
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
Canadian boys… of Danish descent!
OK, not a great hockey lineage, but there’s Leslie Neilsen! That makes up for everything, even Hayden Christensen.
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
Well the Danes are the Canadians of Europe.
Obviously you're not a golfer
by David Hanssen on Apr 13, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
They have a leg up on the Canadians of Norwegian Descent: Jeff Freisen and Glenn Anderson.
Obviously you're not a golfer
by David Hanssen on Apr 13, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve also heard that Hamlet posted a positive Corsi rating and a point per game before his career-ending injury on a dirty hit by Laertes.
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
by mikb on Apr 13, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
He also had some off ice issues. I hear his girlfriend was a bit mental.
Obviously you're not a golfer
by David Hanssen on Apr 13, 2010 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh, DNQ. Or rather, I restricted it to guys who were basically around all year. I can add him if you want though.
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A couple of things stand out. For one, the impressive thing for me about Bailey is not the increase in point total and the +5 +/- (Although those are), it’s that in playing 5 more games this season he cut his penalty minute total almost in half. It’s not like 32 is all that high to begin with, but basically getting the same ice time he only had 18 PMs. IMHO, that’s one of the best signs Bailey matured this season.
Another thing that stands out is Bergenheim. Because of where he was drafted, there are always going to be people that criticize his lack of point production (Basically identical over the last three seasons with 22, 24 and 23). But I think we have all learned in watching him over the last two seasons that is not his game – he’s a grinder, a good penalty killer and and a guy that can bring energy to a game. He’s the kind of guy that if we get rid of him now in a couple of year when we’re competing in the playoffs those same people will be complaining about how we don’t have any players like him. Also of the guys picked after him in the 1st round in 2002 (Ben Eager, Alex Steen, Cam Ward, Mike Morris, Jonas Johansson, Hannu Toivonen and Jim Slater) the only one I would honestly take over Bergie right now is Cam Ward, maybe Steen.
We're doomed. Doomed!
good point
Steen is a legit two center, I think, with the right teammates, but we already have Bailey – or if he gets sent to wing full-time, Rob “Detlef” Shremp is the two center. Jim Slater is that really fast guy, right? (Heh, some description.)
Hmmmm. As unpopular as the Bergenheim pick has been at times, it may well have been the best choice for the team. I know, weeeeiiiiird, huh?
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
It can be argued that we got out Steen-type guy in the third round that year with Franz Nielsen. Or should I say eventually St. Louis got their Nielsen type player when they traded for Steen
We're doomed. Doomed!
by David Hanssen on Apr 13, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
"Detlef" Schremp!
Love it. Can’t believe that never occurred to me.
Steen has really turned it on for the Blues. They’re using him on the powerplay point, where he has a lethal hard shot, and the extra time is fueling him to have more confidence in his hands, in taking the puck to the net. It was his walk year, so there’s that, but i think he turned a corner this year.
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On penalties
Interesting. One thing I’ll get to in Hillen’s report card is how he cut down on his penalties during the second half. He took a lot in the first quarter — some unfair, I think — that were completely him jockeying for positioning as compensation for his size. That’s going to be a challenge for him, but hey, Rafalski figured it out.
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
I never understood the Bergenheim haters. For a mid-round first pick getting a legit third line winger who can get 15 goals on a good season isn’t all that bad.
And if you look at the production of the guys taken after him: Eager is a headcase, it took a while but looks like Steen is finally putting it together, Cam Ward is Cam Ward (But it’s not like Milbury would have drafted another Goalie there), Mike Morris is out of hockey after 26 games at the AHL level, Jonas Johansson played 1 NHL games but has been playing in Sweden since 2007, Toivonen has bounced around the AHL/Finland and Slater has been a disappointment in Atlanta although he, Bogosian and Kane are the only original Thrashers 1st rounders still on the roster. Bergenheim looks pretty good compared to most of that group.
We're doomed. Doomed!
by David Hanssen on Apr 13, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. With 20/20 hindsight I still think the Isles made the right pick. You are not going to get a franchise player every draft, especially when picking later in the round. Every team needs players like Bergenheim.
Bergie's so useful
I guess there’s some checkered history for fans with the contract and Euro exile under Wang Rules. And his hands make you think he should produce more, but the reality is he hasn’t gotten an extended opportunity to. He’s been kept in a checking/PK role, and he handles it pretty well.
His contract negotiation will be interesting though.
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He has all the skills to be a great offensive player, just never found a way to make it work at the NHL level. Compare him to someone like Tavares. He is faster, bigger, stick handles just as well, has a better shot…but lacks that one intangible to consistently put the puck in the net.
Gordon Hates Bergy
When I watch Bergy I am reminded of Steve Thomas when he was a workhorse for the Isles…only he got a lot of PP time.
After seeing the stats for Sutton I’m shocked. I wonder if that is because of his pairing or what could have accounted for that lack of production this year. Perhaps after seeing those stats we might be able to get him on the cheap in F/A if Garth goes for him.
However, Park, I am a little disappointed with that one. How is it that a player on a team leading the games lost category can match the same output the following year? Perhaps you can chalk that up to learning a different style of play but he did noticeably stuggle this year.
Please let Roloson and Biron be the guest announcers on some Chicago playoff broadcasts...please hockey Gods!
On Sutton: He was always in the shutdown role, so that and a lack of PP time will always limit a defenseman’s offensive production. I don’t think he has all that much production in him to begin with, but it’s always going to be limited by his role because teams see his size and boom and give him tough minutes. Interestingly, he was minus-7 in Ottawa.
On Park: Again a big part of it is PP time. He had 4 PP goals and 2 PP assists last year, (1 PP goal this year), and last year he was moving around to more offensive lines when filling in for injuries, whereas this year he spent a lot of time in the more traditional fourth-line role, often carrying some anchors (relatively speaking) as linemates.
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Edit
Sorry, that should be: Park had 4 PP goals and 3 PP assists last year, and 0 PP goals and 1 PP assist this year.
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For Sutton I was refering to the +/-. However I did not realize that he was a 7 in Ottawa. I realize that he is a stay at home guy for the most part but it was the change in +/ that alarmed me. Now that I know that he went a -7 in Ottawa that makes me feel a little better.
The Park explanation situation makes sense but his +/- is still in the gutter. He is supposed to be speedy breakout grinder but it just appeared that he lost a step this year. For some reason he just did not seem as fast as he was last year. Maybe that is my perception but if you couple that with his Sim like hands at times throughout the season it doesn’t help you appreciate his game.
Please let Roloson and Biron be the guest announcers on some Chicago playoff broadcasts...please hockey Gods!
by metalcoconut on Apr 13, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
ok so the plus minus thing gave me a strikethrough line…that can be ignored. I’ll blame Sim for it.
Please let Roloson and Biron be the guest announcers on some Chicago playoff broadcasts...please hockey Gods!
by metalcoconut on Apr 13, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Did you think Park rebounded in the final quarter? I did. I was worried about him mid-winter, but now I wonder if he was playing through injury (or just playing through linemates). Anyway, his wheels down the stretch made me think he’s worth the “getting old” risk of keeping him around.
But I have a soft spot for him and his versatility. It’s nice having a grinder who can fill in for injury without treating the puck like a hot potato.
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I did not pay too close attention to him at the end of the season but I do recall hearing his name a little more.
I also have a soft spot for him because he is one of the few Isles that usually gives his all every shift that he is on the ice.
Perhaps you were right about playing through injury. I can’t see him dropping that much from last year to this year. Perhaps it was a long season for him.
Please let Roloson and Biron be the guest announcers on some Chicago playoff broadcasts...please hockey Gods!
by metalcoconut on Apr 13, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Not everything about Park’s season might have been great, but I don’t think you can criticize him for his output. Actually, he’s the team’s 2nd best scorer in terms of EV PTS/60. To achieve that considering the line mates he played with and the situations he was used in is even pretty impressive, I think. Overall, some might not have liked him as much as I did and he actually indeed had a couple of tough months in the middle of the season. But even there a lot had to with line mates and other things, I feel. But early on, when Thompson-Park-Jackman were among the better guys on many nights, and towards the end, I liked Park very well and would be disappointed – and also surprised – if he wasn’t resigned.
As I've said all season long
the blue line really needs to be addressed this offseason. Having one defensemen this season hit over 30 pts is really shitty on any team. If there are any questions as to why the PP is so dysfunctional look there.
Fucked thing about this is that with one more Defensemen able to put up more than 30 this team is in the playoffs right now. With our draft position this season, if we do take a D, we are not going to see him for another two years.
I think its more important we look at a defenseman’s shut-down ability over point production when it comes to signing free agents this off-season. We do need more offense but at the end of the day I don’t care if the offense is coming from forwards or defenseman, but I do want my defenseman to do there job in there own zone. If we can sign a good two way defenseman who can put up points and do his job defensively then all the better.
50/50
I guess I wouldn’t be surprised either way. I’m sort of in the “devil that you know” category. If he walks, they need someone who’s experienced and better at faceoffs. And while the value of “vet experience” is always ambiguous, the hints are certainly that he is a serious veteran voice in the room.
That said, there are hundreds of bottom-six forwards knocking on doors each year. They may have a replacement picked out.
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Thats the way I see it. He’s valuable but far from irreplaceable. Lots of guys that could fill his role, many of them could do a better job.
Yes, but he’s older than Dit Clapper at this point. I’d take a chance on a guy like Malhotra if he’s available. Two years/$1.6 mil range could do it.
Of course I'm an expert, I've seen Slap Shot eleven times!
Definitely Malhotra would be a good addition — and cheaper than Madden, going by Madden’s recent asking price.
Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto
Edit
Kyle Okposo had 39 pts in 08-09.
U seem to have gotten the goals and assists right but wrong on the point total.
Butdef. improvement from Josh Bailey and KO. Good to see.
by Oleg Kvasha All Star on Apr 13, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions
nice work
looks like all the Islanders who left last season went down in points this season. Plus most of our guys except Streit went up in points or ended just about the same.
Tamby
i think tamby could of scored more for us this season, he started off hot then gordon decided to just stop playing him, he scored as many goals this year as last with less ice time in about half the games
Im sorry, I just cant buy how great he would have been, if only (insert coach name) had played him more and (insert GM) believed in him more.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Apr 14, 2010 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for joining. I generally fall in the middle/low-middle on Tambellini: I don’t dis him as much as his biggest critics, but I don’t think he’s some great missed opportunity. I think generally the club could have handled him better tracing back a few seasons, but the opportunity lost was not great.
His goals this year really were bunched together, and he’s always stuck as a tweener — not really good enough to beat out others for top six time, not evolved enough to carry a bottom-six role. It’s getting late for him, but I’m sure they said that about Moulson, so who knows?
The real curiosity to me is why Snow held him so long when he wasn’t in Gordon’s plans. If there is an internal disconnect there, it’d be fun to know the details.
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yea i dont see him being a part of the islanders future at all, i just thought after his hat trick he gained some confidence but it was almost right after that when gordan benched him, but with moulson and bailey as the left wingers he didnt stand a chance, and he isnt as useful and a checking line winger as bergy and sim
Comparative NHL players
Thanks for doing this, I started to do something similar for each Islander to determine a comparable NHL player on another team (e.g. John Tavares in his rookie season is comprable to RJ Umberger , Okposo is Krejci etc) to determine the depth strength of the Isles roster. This is what got me looking at Halpern as a Park replacement (I’ve since conceeded that Malholtra is the better bet). This was a simplistic snaphot of where they are, not a projection of what they will be.
After just a few entries we looked like team of second line and third line players and stopped the effort. That brief review did help put into perspective how “good” some of our favorites are and how much better some of our “bad” players are compared to other players on the pay scale. There are a lot of well known names that when you look at he raw numbers don’t compare favorably to what we’ve got, they just play on teams where they play on the second line where they belong and have a true top line in front of them.
Interesting
And that gets to the wild card for the Isles’ future: Who will be their best players, how good will they be, and will there be enough of them that they aren’t pushing 4th-line guys into 2nd-line roles? (Obviously we know some of them, but we don’t know all of them and we don’t know the ceiling for everyone.)
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KO a -23
Is anybody else concerned about KO going from -6 to -23?
I was wondering that as well but they usually stuck him on lines with people that were struggling. At least that was the beginning of the season for him. My guess is that he couldn’t find a rhythm while he was being bounced around all the time.
Please let Roloson and Biron be the guest announcers on some Chicago playoff broadcasts...please hockey Gods!
by metalcoconut on Apr 15, 2010 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I am
But only in the sense that he may have been overworked/overused. He played a lot of minutes and it was more often than not against the best competition.
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