Where Will It End?: Islanders' Downward Spiral and the 2010 Draft
by BCISLEMAN on Feb 7, 2010 9:25 AM EST
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The Islanders' current downward spiral is certainly disheartening...especially after a brief period when the team looked almost unbeatable. None of us really thought they were that good. I, for one, do not think they are as bad as they are playing now. The playoffs are probably out of the question, but continuing this tailspin could be really bad for team morale. A win against the contending Predators on Tuesday featuring a goal or two by John Tavares might be just what it takes to turn things around.
Nevertheless, the loss to the Hurricanes, coupled with Toronto's win over the Senators, puts the Islanders a mere five points above the Hurricanes and the Leafs. The prospect that this team might have one of the top three picks in the draft cannot be excluded.
What should the Islanders' approach to the draft be? To answer that question, it would be helpful to look at the team's needs. First, where is the team strong? Center and goal seem to be strengths. John Tavares and Josh Bailey certainly have strong futures as centers for the top two lines and Rob Schremp may even have potential as a top two centerman. Frans Nielsen, though untypically small for a third line center, is quite capable. A few years down the road, Anders Lee--a more prototypical third line center--may supplant Nielsen. While there is no prime choice for fourth line center on the roster, Justin DeBenedetto and Casey Cizikas both offer cause for optimism in the long term.
The reasonably solid play of DP, coupled with the drafting of Mikko Koskinnen and Anders Nilsson as well as promising performances by other netminders in the Islander system seem to leave the team with no real worries for the future in that area. That was a glaring area of weakness in the system and Garth did a good job of fixing it in the offseason.
Another area of reasonable strength is among third and fourth line forwards. Between Trent Hunter, Sean Bergenheim, Jesse Joensuu, Blake Comeau, and a number of candidates in the system, there are no pressing needs there.
Coach Gordon has played with a number of line combinations this season. The one that seems most promising is the Moulson--Tavares--Okposo line. Tavares has been compared to Phil Esposito and it is not hard to see Okposo and Moulson as his Hodge and Cashman. Moulson is 26, but this is really his first significant NHL experience. It is fair to say that all three have significant room for growth. That and the lack of a potent second line built around Josh Bailey are all that stand between this trio and a future as one of the NHL's premier scoring lines.
To accurately assess the Islander defense, it is necessary to look not so much at its' rather spotty present, but at its future. Specifically what will that defense look like in 2013-14 when Mark Streit's current contract ends? Current roster players Jack Hillen, Andy MacDonald, and Dustin Kohn may be part of that future as may prospects Hamonic, De Haan, Ness, Niemi, Kessel, and Katic. Of these, only De Haan, Hamonic, Ness, and possibly Hillen are clearly top four material and only Hamonic has the size to be described as a big, physical defenseman. Typically you want at least two of your top four to be in the latter category.
To complete the picture, it has been said over and over again on this blog and on various broadcasts that the Islanders are lacking in big and physical players. Also, Garth's dealings with the KHL may provide an opening to finally bring Kirill Petrov across the pond, adding him and Schremp to the mix as possible second line forwards.
In considering all this, it seems clear that this team should try to come out of this draft with one top six forward and one top four defenseman--exactly what Katie Strang had indicated earlier in the season. These players should be as big and physical as possible.
Of course, Garth's approach to this goal will be dictated in part by where this team ends up after the lottery. I would divide it up into three possibilities: finishing with the first or second overall pick, finishing with the third overall pick, and finishing with 4-14 overall.
If we have the number one or two overall, Garth's decision is easy. He drafts either Hall or Fowler and then moves up his second round pick to draft either the best forward or the best defenseman he can get. The clear choice in forwards moving up into the first round would be Malmo SEL LW Victor Ohman. There are a number of good choices for defenseman including names like Forbort, Tinordi, and Johns. The strategy if we pick between 4 and 14 would be similar except we would start with either Nino Niederreiter or Erik Gudbranson for the first pick.
The really interesting scenario would be if the Isles get the #3 overall pick. I am confident that Hall and Fowler will go in the first two picks, leaving center Tyler Seguin on the board. Some will argue that Garth should simply select him but I disagree. As I have pointed out, center is a position of strength. A better move, in my view, would be to trade down with Anaheim and get their two first rounders,currently #12 and #15 overall, and their second rounder. With, hopefully, a collection of second and third round picks, Garth can move these picks up and get Niederreiter AND Gudbranson. Getting these two in the first round as opposed to just Seguin, however talented he may be, seems like an obvious move.
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If Tyler Seguin is available the Isles should take him
he has decent size and scores goals something the Isles need really bad. Why would the Isles draft a defenseman in the 1st round when they have 5 or 6 very good d-men in the juniors and US colleges all within three years of making the jump to the NHL? Gudbrandson is very good and should be selected in the top 15 but right now the Isles need to get goal makers and forwards with size to drive to the net. I like Niederreiter but not at the cost of losing possibility of getting someone like Seguin who I think will go number 2 overall ahead of Fowler unless the Canes are picking number 2. If Bruins (Leafs pick) are picking number two that’s not good news for the Islanders hopes of getting Seguin. Niederreiter is big boy playing against little kids. Just because Nino can run over WHL players doesn’t translate into NHL success.
The argument you use against Niederreiter
can be used just as readily against Seguin. As JT is finding out, scoring goals against NHL defenses and goaltenders is a whole different matter. In any event, the Isles do not need another top two center. They need a big physical forward who can drive the net and mix it up with the big boys. Nino has jumped from one level to the next several times and never missed a beat.
As for defense, only De Haan, Hamonic, and Ness among Isle prospects are likely top four NHLers. IF the others make the NHL, it will likely be like MacDonald and Kohn as reserve defensemen who only get significant ice time when a Hillen or a Hamonic gets injured. The Isles NEED another top four quality defender who is big and physical, can skate, and produce some offense. Not only should they get someone like Gudbranson, they should also use one or two later picks on more big physical defensemen.
You make it sound like JT is a bust already
He’s 19 for goodness sakes. The Isles have no top 6 forwards for JT to work with so the focus is on him when he’s on the ice. KO is close to a top 6 forward but not there yet, neither is Bailey. Two more years all three will be top 6 NHL forwards at least we hope.
You want me to go through the list of high scoring big forwards from the WHL who were picked in the 1st round the past 20 years who turned out to be nothing. Not saying Niederreiter won’t be a NHL player because I like him but my money is on Seguin to be a HOF player over Nino.
You forgot to mention the Isles could get a top four D-man via FA which they have done quite often in the past or did you forget about that nasty salary floor the Isles are over 10 million short on for 2010-11 . The cupboard of Isles quality d-man in the system is quite full right now. I think the Isles should focus on offense the next two or three years in the NHL draft. By the way you also forgot about Matt Donovan who scored again for U of D and is making a big impact in his freshman year. All Matt has done is play against kids two or three years older than him being one of the better players on the ice and getting a gold medal vs the best players his age last month. Ness takes a backseat to Donavon imo.
not saying he's a bust
but he has yet to deliver on his promise and there is no guarantee that he ever will. I believe that he will, but even now there is no guarantee. I suspect that you could find forwards from the OHL who were thought to be hot stuff but were busts as well. You keep your money wherever you like, but Nino will make an NHL roster before Seguin does.
The Isles cupboard of top four quality defenders is hardly full and Donovan is another smurf. The Isles need another talented big man on their blueline and they cannot rely on FA to bring one here. In case you missed the bulletin, the star FAs ain’t exactly lining up to come here just yet. We will need to draft a top four and Stang said as much when she was asked. She talks to Garth every now and then, ya know.
Take the talent
If Seguin at #3 is as good as billed (ha, the timeless draft caveat), I don’t think you pass on that kind of talent just because you already have centers. Agree with the general “state of the system” sentiment here, but we don’t really know who will stay at center. As the Bailey experiment has shown — whether or not he stays on the wing for a while or moves back next year — the right talent can excel on the wing even when drafted as a center. I’d rather find room for three talented centers than trade down just because a lesser talent is a natural wing.
The poll there is dicey: Trade a 3rd overall for two mid-first-round picks? That’s dangerous, and would require more information about the prospects involved than is available outside of a scouting staff. Further: trade a 3rd overall for two mid-first-round picks, then hope you can move one of those and change to move back up in the first round? That’s a stretch unless you absolutely know who is involved and what they need. That kind of info won’t be available until June. It could happen — Garth obviously likes to wheel and deal on Draft Day, but there are too many unknowns between now and June for me to guess.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
Obviously there are a lot of things we probably won't know even AFTER Draft Day
but I suspect that a team like Anaheim would love to deal its two picks and a second for the #3 overall and I suspect that teams not in the top three will be open to dealing down for extra mid level picks. I imagine both Nino and Gudbranson will go between 6 and 12 and if somehow Gudbranson is taken off the board, there will still be at least 2-3 quality big blueliners on the board. To my mind, a top six PF of Nino’s quality AND a top four defender of Gudbranson’s quality trunp Seguin—-who, I should point out, was not asked to the dance (WJC) while Nino was not only asked but was THE most talked about talent at the WJC. He has stepped in seamlessly everywhere he has gone and has absolutely killed everywhere he has gone. What more does he have to do? Maybe when he’s bulling his way past Islander 180 lb smurf defenders to crash the net and score for the Rangers or the Flyers everyone will say, hey that guy was pretty good. Shoulda drafted him.
Just curious: The Ducks have some nice top-end talent at forward already; if you think it makes sense the Isles would choose two mid-first shots over the #3, why do you think the Ducks wouldn’t prefer the same? Trying to think through this exercise here. The Ducks appear to need a top-end forward less than the Isles do.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
At this point, they could use a scoring second-line center in the future. But there are a few routes to get that.
I guess if the Isles had picked Hedman last summer, I don’t see the Lightning trading down for two picks in the middle of the round just because they already had Vinny and Stamkos. I say grab top-tier talent when it’s in front of you, deal from strength if your cupboard gets too full.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
there are a few routes yes
but the cheapest and easiest would be to trade up for Seguin if the team with the #3 pick is offering. Remember they are scraping every cap dollar to keep Ryan in the fold. That was part of the reason for the Giguere deal. And I think they could use a scoring second line center now.
I suspect that the Lightning would have traded the #2 pick for, among other things, a star quality defender. I recall reading posts by their fans which were fervently hoping the Isles would take JT and were relieved when we did.
Grab the best player in the first
and use the rest to draft on need. If you need is D well that’s pretty much what the whole league needs. Compile as many picks as you can in the later rounds and just use those picks to draft the best Dmen you can find.
You’re sure to find a few diamonds in the rough. You have a surplus of what you need and what everyone else needs.
I don't deny that it is legit to argue BPA
and, of course, the Isles and other teams may not agree with published reports as to who that is. My point, howver, is that with the Isles as stacked as they are at center, getting a big physical and talented PF and a big physical and talented top four blueliner and meeting two pressing organizational needs trumps getting the guy everyone thinks is the best.
If this scenario came to pass and IF Garth were to consider doing this
I suppose that he would calculate about where Nino might be drafted (Gudbranson isn’t as much of a concern because of the wealth of comparable blueliners behind him) and feel out GMs drafting in that area as to what it would take to move from say 12 overall to 5, 6, or 7.. Then and only then, I suspect, would he pull the trigger with Anaheim.
Correct
Forwards can easily move between all three positions, although a good center is obviously more valuable than a good wing.
The Islanders cannot score. Anyone who can put the puck in the net would be a welcome addition. With that said, the Isles will probably draft a goalie.
Do you own stock in this kid?
Central Scouting does not even rank him in the top 10 in North America. He may be an interesting talent, but this shilling for him seems over the top.
I've said it before
I watched Niedereiter in the WJC. He played very well for an extremely overmatched team. He would fit in very well around here.
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Feb 8, 2010 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Dom and I were scratching our heads about Central Scouting
They basically ignored what he did at WJC. He and Conz beat the Russians just about singlehandedly. He had Canadian fans chanting N-I-N-O. So I guess they are all shills. And that Bob McKenzie, is he ever a shill?!
He is a player who has caught my eye all throughout the tournament. He is a member of the Portland Winter Hawks of the WHL and has an exceptional chance of being the highest drafted Swiss player in NHL history. He will likely go higher than Michel Riesen who was chosen 14th overall by the Edmonton Oilers in 1997.I’ve been talking about this guy in glowing terms all through the tournament for obvious reasons. He has great one-on-one skills and his defensive play has been extremely strong, especially against the Russians where he stepped up and did a lot of really good things. As well he is the straw that stirs the drink offensively for Switzerland.
Niederreiter is one of those players that every time that he steps on the ice you come out of your seat a little bit because you sense that this guy is ready to do something special. He has been absolutely amazing, especially considering he is essentially playing by himself considering some of the injuries that Switzerland is forced to deal with.
Is Bob McKenzie a shill? Absolutely. That excerpt you provided proves the point nicely, in fact.
Look, I’m sure he is a nice player. But I don’t think it is wise to make a draft decision based on one tournament.
maybe it proves that Nino can flat out play
because most folks regard McKenzie as a hockey expert. And most scouts look closely at what players do at the WJC. Look at how Josefson’s stock dropped after he was basically a no show at last year’s WJC. He was expected to be a top ten and only went at 20 because Lou has an eye for talent. Nino has kicked butt at every level he’s played at and has been averaging a point a game for Portland.
Look at how Josefson’s stock dropped after he was basically a no show at last year’s WJC. He was expected to be a top ten and only went at 20 because Lou has an eye for talent.
Thanks for proving my point again. It was stupid for a talented player to fall so significantly based on performance at one tournament. It is similarly stupid to inflate a player’s performance based on one tournament.
But, whatever, Nino for #1 EVAH@#%
the thing is that its NOT inflated
he has been great wherever he has gone. I think the reason scouts pay attention to the WJC is because it has more of the pressure and intensity of a playoff game and everybody wants a money player. The Josefson deal was a little bogus because he was desperately ill during the WJC….although you can make the argument that a player can be ill during the Stanley Cup playoffs as well and real champions perform even when they are not 100%.
well, one thing, knocking sequin for not playing in that tourny, canada had only 1 draft eligible player, taylor hall, they were stacked, so sequin not making that team wasn’t too big a deal, and the fans can chant whatever at whomever, i dont care what they chant, bottom line, he’s very young, and mckenzie repeatedly said he doesnt have close to nhl leg strength yet
also of note, should the isles have nino high on their board, they will probably pull a bailey type move if they are sitting with the #4/5 pick
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
If Seguin is truly an ELITE player it is a very big deal
why wasn’t he second line center? They are ALL very young and they all have flaws. We have said over and over that JT needs to bulk up and build strength to become a truly elite scoring forward. The real bottom line is that Nino has kicked butt whereever he has gone and there is no reason to assume that he will not do the same in the NHL. Only a poor GM would rate a player very high and then trade away a chance to draft him.
just out of curiosity (because i already know your answer, but…)
do you think nino makes team canada if he was canadian?
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
You just had to poke the bear… ;)
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
not trying to start wars with him all the time dom but he just refuses to see beyond his nino colored glasses
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
I don't think that I am the one who is having trouble seeing clearly
but maybe you can explain to me how Caron, Adam, and Della Rovere are all better PFs than Nino is.
but my point is that i cant bc, you’ll just say he outplayed them in wjc, that he excelled at level after level, that he reminds people of hossa, (did i forget anything?) etc… you say it over and over, hoping to create this islandernation push to draft this kid so that in the end you can say, “I TOLD YOU ALL SO!”
woop-d-freakin-doo
i could have a notarized scouting report from mr.hockey himself stating why A is better than B, but if you like B better, you wont relent on it, it’s just who you are i guess
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
Try to explain it to me
make your case, if you can. If you can’t make a case, then admit it. This was your scenario and if you are convinced that these players are better than Nino, you should at least be able to make a reasonable argument for them.
Seguin is supposedly a far superior talent to Nino but he couldn;t beat out Brayden Schenn for the Team Canada roster. Make the case that Schenn is also clearly a better player than Nino. If I am being so unreasonable, you ought to be able to make a case for your position.
BTW, who is Mr. Hockey?
I rest my case
really? Based on what? Is Grapes supposed to be Mr. Hockey? Gordie Howe? And how does my not knowing who this is make your case? You aren’t making any sense.
Seguin is supposedly a far superior talent to Nino but he couldn;t beat out Brayden Schenn for the Team Canada roster. Make the case that Schenn is also clearly a better player than Nino.
You’re simply not being fair. You’re taking relative claims from moments in time (paraphrasing: “Tavares had a better WJC than Hedman therefore he MUST be the better player”) to declare unequivocally that your favorite player is better than others and is automatically the answer for the Islanders and everyone else should just “admit it.”
It’s not even a question of others needing to “make a case,” — you’ve made yours, multiple times, for several months, based on your own opinion and various forms of relative evaluations and hype (“everyone was talking about Nino”), while claiming your case is objective fact rather than one fan’s opinion — completely disregarding the fact that there are varying legit opinions across North America. Central Scouting has one listing, and rather than accept that as one of many you just dismiss it and insist that they ignored the WJC and you didn’t.
Everyone’s been quite patient with your Nino love, and has seen your case for this non-Islander multiple times — it’s not fair or acceptable to beat them over the head with it simply because they have an open mind about the vast pool of teenage prospects whose future and potential is far from certain and far from unanimously assessed.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
I guess I see it the other way around. I am making the case that Nino is good enough that getting him and a top four defensive prospect trumps getting Seguin. If Seguin cannot beat out Schenn—who I see as a comparable player to Nino, doesn’t that raise questions as to whether he is really that much of an “elite” player that getting him is better for the Islanders than getting Nino and a top defender. That is the essence of the debate on this thread. You make a reasonable point that it may not be a slam dunk doing the trade down and trade up that I propose…but assuming it could be done, I am not convinced by any arguments presented so far that getting Seguin would clearly be better…especially given the strength we have at center.
OK, that's fair
If A, then B, with A being “if Nino is better than X.” But you can fill anyone in for A for an interesting theoretical draft strategy discussion. It’s the fighting over the quite malleable rank of a specific draft prospect that gets taxing. Particularly with Canada’s deep pool and the luxury of constructing “a team” rather than simply skimming the best players 1-20.
You’ve obviously seen more of Nino than others; but everyone has observational bias. When it starts to sound like a relentless personal campaign, it can get off-putting.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
just made the six hour ride to Prince George Sat night
to see Nino play. He is big and fast. He is responsible in his own end and yet is always ready to to break out and transition up ice…as McKenzie said, he is always looking to make it happen. The PG goalie tried to golf the puck out of his end. Nino caught it in mid air and redirected it—nearly into the empty net. He almost broke in on net but was tripped. He was also called for diving, although it didn’t seem so to me. He seems quite the character. He had the penalty box official laughing and smiling the entire two minutes. I wonder, based on that and the Kadri incident, whether he is one of those guys who like to get inside their opponents heads.
Yes, we can debate the merits of one prospect over another. Some scouts say Gormley and Gudbranson are better than Fowler and who knows whether Hall, for example, will have a better career than Kabanov?
One thing, however, is beyond dispute. If you look at the likely top 15 picks, only one is within 10 pounds of Nino. That would be McFarland who is about 8 pounds lighter. He’s very talented but has a bad habit of knocking em dead when the scouts are watching at the big tourneys but disappearing when he goes back to Sudbury. We have all been crying for a talented big man. There will be one available in the top 15 if Garth chooses to pick him. That’s all I’m saying.
teammate Troy Rutkowski
a two way defender, was also quite good. Had two assists and was solid in his own end. Had a six game point scoring streak going. That was broken up in a game today. Nino scored. And apparently Sbisa has been traded from Lethbridge, so the two prime Swiss prospects are together.
He might have a tougher time given he had not completed one full season in Canadian juniors
but the highest drafted of the three PF types on the roster was Caron who was drafted 25th overall by Boston so I would say that Nino should have been chosen over at least one of those three yes.
BTW, it appears that Brayden Schenn was the guy the "elite"Seguin couldn’t beat out for a roster spot.
BTW
I have identified another legit PF candidate Yasin Cisse. He was netting a point a game in the USHL before he was sidelined for the season with a tendon injury. He will be playing for BU in the Fall if healthy. He is 6’3", 208 and has his share of rough edges. As with Ohman, he is likely to be a second round or later pick because, also like Ohman, he has a lot further to go than Nino to be NHL-ready.
I think the best philosophy going into a draft is for a team to pick the most talented pick available and to ignore its specific needs. If the Islanders get the third pick they absolutely take Seguin if he’s available (I think he might go 2nd overall ahead of fowler) If the Islanders do go with a winger I think there are better choices ahead of Nino. Tarasenko is scoring consistently in the KHL, playing against professional athletes. This draft has a lot of intriguing defense prospects, obviously Fowler but I also like Gormley and Gudbranson. We could use some bigger defense prospects and there are some big american defensemen in the draft like Tinordi, Merrill and Forbert. Anyway it goes I think this is one of the deepest drafts we’ve seen in a few years and I’m looking forward to see what garth does.
Hey, welcome MatthewM11. Thanks for joining.
I sure hope it’s a deep draft in the top six or so. The Isles could obviously use another gem.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
The Oil will be picking first and the Bs second in all likelihood
The Oil will surely pick Hall and the Bs are very deep at C so will almost certainly pick Fowler. I would be VERY surprised if ANY of the defensemen you mentioned are around in the second round. Second round you MIGHT get Beukeboom or one of the Archibald boys. In my view, a shot at Nino AND Gudbranson (or Johns if Gudbranson is off the board) trumps getting Seguin.
Tarasenko was in the WJC game with Switzerland
a game dominated by Nino and Conz. Tarasenko did score a goal early…but was not there when it counted. Nino was and scored twice for Switzerland to win the game. Nino is a better choice than Tarasenko.
Sigh.
This is exactly my point about the shill thing. MatthewM11 makes excellent points, not the least of which is that Tarasenko is playing against superior talent and playing well — and your response is that Nino supposedly played better in one game (which Tarasenko also scored in) and thus Nino is “clearly” the better choice.
Rationality left this discussion a while ago.
Rationality left this discussion a while ago.
when you joined the discussion. He didn’t supposedly play a better game, he DID play a better game. NO ONE was talking about Tarasenko after the game. Everyone was talking about Nino. Tarasenko scored one goal early and then nothing even with the game on the line and the two best Swiss defenders out of the lineup, he was unable to deliver. And how do you and Matt know that the talent he is playing against (and scoring at nowhere near Nino’s point a game pace) is that much superior to the players Nino is playing against? And OBTW Vlad’s dad—who apparently is managing his affairs—says he is not crossing the pond anytime soon whereas Nino is already here and is performing at a star level in North America. So yes, by all means lets spend our first round pick in this most critical of all drafts for the future of the franchise on a player who will stay in Russia and play with Kirill Petrov while Nino stars for another team here in the NHL. That really is very rational…about as rational as continually putting down Andy S. the way you did for the better part of this season.
Or as rational as claiming, as you have in the past, that Josh Bailey was bound for the hall of fame based on his rookie campaign?
This discussion is obviously going nowhere, /thread.
based on his ability
the kind of ability that had him centering for Taylor Hall when he was on the Spits, Josh might wind up in the Hockey Hall of Fame. I believed that when I said it and still do…but NOT based upon his performance last year.
don't remember exactly what I said
but I do see that kind of potential in him. A lot of things could change and he might not, but I think he can.
Probably not a lot of actual difference between us, I think Nino is a fine prospect, I just don’t see why you’re so dismissive of other options that might be available — particularly relative to where Central Scouting has everyone ranked at the end of the year.
I focused on him initially because I felt like we needed a talented big man to anchor our second line
Actually I had been focusing on Victor Ohman even before last year’s draft. He may eventually be as good as Nino, but he is still over playing for the rinky dink Malmo Redhawks. His contract does end this year, so he could come over and play junior hockey next year. In fact, it probably would be a smart move for him to take whatever steps he can in that direction before the draft to improve his draft position. But even with that, he will still be at least a year behind Nino developmentally. And then its far from a lock that he’ll develop as fast as Nino.
How fast? Well compare him with Galiev who came over last year to play in the USHL and is playing for the St John Sea Dogs this year. They have almost identical point totals and both of their teams are very successful. The difference is that the Dogs are loaded with talent and Galiev is just another piece to the puzzle while Nino, in his first NA experience, is leading his team at age 17.
And the WJC is a big deal and all the undrafted players especially know it. Who knows what Garth’s thought process was last year but it was the common perception that the respective performances of JT and Big Victor sealed the deal for JT. It is the one chance, especially for European skaters like Tarasenko, to impress the scouts. Going into the WJCs, no one apart from me maybe, was paying any attention to Nino. Apart from Hall, no one garnered the attention Nino did. A 14 ranking probably translates to a late first round pick—-which was where he was before the WJC. It’s as if they didn’t even watch the WJC. He is a likely top ten pick and he is just the player the very unphysical Islanders need.
Pittsburg
Look at Pittsburg, they drafted three centers in a row, and have built there team around those guys. I don’t think anyone was advising them not to draft Crosby because they already had Malkin. There is no rule against having more than one elite center on your team. And thats if your lucky, how many draftees prove to be busts or get injured. It will be years before we know the full value of Bailey, Tavares, even Okposo. Until then we keep taking the best picks we can get. And say we do take someone like Seguin this year, and he along with Bailey and Tavares both continue to progress into legitimate 1st/2nd line centers…well there are certainly worse situations for a hockey team to deal with. We can either convert one into a wing or trade one for a player at a position where we are lacking. I think trading down for multiple lower picks would be a mistake. This team still needs elite gamebreaking talent, the kind you’re more likely to find in the top six. Pittsburg, Chicago- teams can turn things around with a few consecutive years of high picks.
First, Nino has shown that he IS an elite gamebreaking talent. Just ask the Russians.
Second, as the discussion on another thread indicates, we need big physical and tough elite gamebreaking talent. We need elite players who can kick butt too.
Absolutely a fair point, and I agree that Nino is an exciting prospect. Its just that this year the top six is looking really good. Seguin is putting up numbers at a torrid pace, 86 points in 49 games. He is also lauded for his two way play, something you ideally look for in a second line center. He has given Hall and Fowler a run for the top pick (even being snubbed for the WJC-that was a stacked Canadien team you can’t fault him for not cracking the team) Don’t get me wrong, I’d be happy with Nino, there are just guys I would take ahead of him. The idea of trading down and getting two prospects is enticing but what worries me about that is say we land #12 and #15…Gudbranson is ranked 10th overall and Nino is at 16, but I think he will go higher. We can’t trade down and expect to get certain players.
see my post above
if this happens, I would see Garth testing the waters with teams in the 5-10 range to see what it would take to move up there. I would make sure to get the best pick possible for Nino because I suspect that he will be one of the first players picked after the top three. If we miss with Gudbranson, we should still be able to get Johns, Merrill, or Tinordi.
and I do fault Seguin for not making the team
it is one thing to say that not making Team Canada doesn’t mean you are not a good player. But I think that an “elite” player—if that is what Seguin really is—should have made the team. Accepting that Hall beat him out for the top line, Canada was still presumably running at least two other lines. Why wasn’t he centering the #2 line? I heard no outcry up here about him being unfairly passed over. The two most talked about players (other than goaltenders) at the WJC were Hall and Nino by far—-and Seguin wasn’t even there. All the talk of those pushing JT last year was that he did this and that at the WJC and was the better player when he and Big Victor were matched up. Well Seguin did not even make it to the dance that Hall and Nino dominated and Nino was clearly the better player over Tarasenko.
I agree that while it seems we have a lot of quality defensive prospects, outside of Hamonic they are all kind of the same- undersized puck moving defensemen who don’t play a physical game. How many players like that can we dress? I like Brandon Gormley but he seems kind of in the same mold as a De Haan, Ness, Donovan. That is why I think getting a Gudbranson type would be a smart move. But I’m still not sold that it would be a good move at the cost of a top three pick.
Nino has been compared to Hossa by folks who have seen them both play
Isles won’t get shortchanged by picking him, And if you get Gudbranson as well, it seems worth it to me.
It's funny
cause you watch this team draft like crazy for the last two seasons and it still isn’t enough. Goes to show how badly the prospect pool was gutted.
we have a fair amount of prospects
just not that many who are proven to be of top six forward or top four defense quality. And the players we have drafted up unyil now have not largely been of the big physical type.
Years of neglect really hurts. Dammit.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
pretty much a foregone conclusion
This team is 8 points out with 22 left to play so the playoffs are really out of the question. Pole position for the Taylor Hall derby is even more out of the question as the Isles are 14 points ahead of Edmonton. The only two teams with a realistic shot at the #1 overall are the #1 and #2 worst. Toronto is 7 points back with one head to head left and a game in hand. There is a slim possibility that we could be in the #2. As the teams above us all have games in hand, there is a very good chance that we will wind up with either the third or fourth overall pick.
Anaheim is unlikely to trade up with us if we are in the fourth spot. Right now their pick is in the 12th spot and the Philly pick is in the 17th spot. If they dropped to say 10 and 15 respectively, it wouldn’t take much to get the first pick up into the mid top ten and have a pretty much slam dunk at getting Nino. If Garth can move the other pick up to the 12, we might very well get Gudbranson as well. If we have an extra second round pick, we might be able to grab Ohman and Cisse to eventually play on the third line with Lee and use our third rounder for Rutkowski or one of the Archibald boys. That should go a long way toward alleviating the size and physicality issue.
Looking at it a little more closely
barring any enormous surge, we will likely finish between # 3 and #8. Since there is some depth among big defensemen, I would use the first pick for a PF and Nino seems the best possible choice there. Anyone who disagrees can feel free to make their case.
Its strange
I cannot bring myself to give a shit about the draft. Like, at all.
I guess 20 games from now, that will probably change.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
it's different for me
I have never seen this year as being anything more than a developmental step on the road to contention. I see 2012-13 as being the time when players like Hamonic, Lee, De Haan, Ness, Cizikas, and others, including those selected in this draft, will mature into stars. By then, JT, Kyle, Josh, Moulson, and others now with the team will already be established stars.
The development of players this year and the players selected in LA will be critical to the future of this franchise. I am happy that we have a management team in place that knows what it is doing.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
