NHL Power Rankings: It's like a confidence meter
by Dominik on Dec 28, 2010 1:24 PM EST
in This, That & What-Not
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The elusive "confidence" has come up in comments in the past few threads, in reference to what the Islanders lacked during their winless streak and what they to a man say they regained during their recent winning run. So it was tickling to see both the Post's and Newsday's Rangers recap of last night praise Matt Gilroy and focus on, well, Gilroy's regained "confidence." Gilroy potted two goals, both of the slightly fortunate variety (think Brendan Witt's two-goal game last year, or Milan Jurcina's this year).
But whether it's a bounce off Rob Schremp's stick or a laser that no one could stop, they all count the same. And that's how it goes for defenseman, right? Especially the ones who are expected to score -- they fire it at the net and when things are bouncing right it's "I'm playing with confidence," and when they're not it's something else. That's why Witt's reaction to his two-goal game last year was so awesome: He knew it was nothing but random chance that two of his 25 career goals happened in the same game. So if Gilroy's shots don't find the net last night, his game is the same -- but is it noticed, written about, and quoted in such detail? In most games, somewhere between skill and luck is what's really going on.
After the jump, our weekly NHL Power Rankings show how confidence moves a team up...or is it a move up creates confidence? The Isles are so confident they've jumped out of 30th place.
Also: Anyone upstate going to the Bridgeport game in Albany tonight? A few regulars here are. And on that topic, Michael Fornabaio's Bridgeport chat begins at 1:30. Give him some questions, won't you?
Media Rankings Survey
This is how various media outlets rank things according to their opinion (except for CBS, which does numeric, and TSN, which goes by a formula). Good to see ESPN's Burnside can never let a compliment go without a ... wait for it ... a burn (oooh, see what I did there?). Food for thought: SBN Hockey's weekly poll (divided by conference) is here.
| Outlet | Rank | Last Week | Their Commentary |
| CBSSports | 24 | 30 |
Time to break up the Islanders, or at least do a double take as they start the final week of 2010 on a 4-0-1 run. |
| Col. Dispatch | - | 30 |
[none found this week] |
| ESPN | 28 | 29 | Kudos to the Isles, who have now won three in a row after an inspired victory over Montreal on Sunday. Still, even with this brief spasm of life, the Isles are a million miles away from anywhere. |
| Sportsnet (Brophy) | 29 | 30 | In what might be a high point of the season, the Islanders have wrung up three straight wins and are 4-0-1 in their last five. Enjoy it while it last Islanders' fans. |
| TSN (Cullen) |
- | 30 | [none found this week] |
| Average | inc. | 29.8 | Half these guys are taking the week off to eat holiday fruit cake or something. |
Real NHL Power Rankings
Meanwhile, this is what a 4-0-1 streak can do to bandage up a one-win-in-20 spell. As always, these are rankings from LHH member ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles, based on games through Sunday (so they include the win over Montreal, but not last night's loss to the Rangers). Look out, Toronto, the Isles are coming for you.
| W | L | OTL | Pts | GP | Win % | Pts.%/GP |
PWR | ||
| 1 | Detroit | 22 | 9 | 4 | 48 | 35 | 0.686 | 0.3665 | 2041 |
| 2 | Vancouver | 21 | 8 | 5 | 47 | 34 | 0.691 | 0.3615 | 1987 |
| 3 | Los Angeles | 21 | 12 | 1 | 43 | 34 | 0.632 | 0.3545 | 1930 |
| 4 | Philadelphia | 22 | 8 | 5 | 49 | 35 | 0.700 | 0.3624 | 1914 |
| 5 | Tampa Bay | 21 | 10 | 5 | 47 | 36 | 0.653 | 0.3610 | 1910 |
| 6 | Dallas | 21 | 11 | 4 | 46 | 36 | 0.639 | 0.3488 | 1903 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 24 | 11 | 2 | 50 | 37 | 0.676 | 0.3494 | 1869 |
| 8 | San Jose | 19 | 11 | 5 | 43 | 35 | 0.614 | 0.3329 | 1836 |
| 9 | Colorado | 19 | 12 | 4 | 42 | 35 | 0.600 | 0.3371 | 1826 |
| 10 | St. Louis | 18 | 12 | 5 | 41 | 35 | 0.586 | 0.3378 | 1825 |
| 11 | Chicago | 20 | 14 | 3 | 43 | 37 | 0.581 | 0.3309 | 1822 |
| 12 | Phoenix | 16 | 11 | 7 | 39 | 34 | 0.574 | 0.3216 | 1751 |
| 13 | Nashville | 17 | 12 | 6 | 40 | 35 | 0.571 | 0.3145 | 1728 |
| 14 | Washington | 21 | 12 | 5 | 47 | 38 | 0.618 | 0.3202 | 1718 |
| 15 | Boston | 18 | 11 | 4 | 40 | 33 | 0.606 | 0.3196 | 1690 |
| 16 | Atlanta | 19 | 13 | 6 | 44 | 38 | 0.579 | 0.3110 | 1667 |
| 17 | Minnesota | 16 | 14 | 4 | 36 | 34 | 0.529 | 0.2957 | 1622 |
| 18 | Anaheim | 18 | 17 | 4 | 40 | 39 | 0.513 | 0.2988 | 1617 |
| 19 | Columbus | 17 | 15 | 3 | 37 | 35 | 0.529 | 0.2961 | 1617 |
| 20 | Montreal | 20 | 14 | 2 | 42 | 36 | 0.583 | 0.3036 | 1614 |
| 21 | NY Rangers | 20 | 14 | 2 | 42 | 36 | 0.583 | 0.2873 | 1538 |
| 22 | Carolina | 15 | 15 | 4 | 34 | 34 | 0.500 | 0.2714 | 1472 |
| 23 | Calgary | 15 | 18 | 3 | 33 | 36 | 0.458 | 0.2548 | 1400 |
| 24 | Florida | 16 | 17 | 0 | 32 | 33 | 0.485 | 0.2585 | 1391 |
| 25 | Ottawa | 16 | 17 | 4 | 36 | 37 | 0.486 | 0.2550 | 1362 |
| 26 | Edmonton | 12 | 16 | 6 | 30 | 34 | 0.441 | 0.2351 | 1305 |
| 27 | Buffalo | 14 | 17 | 4 | 32 | 35 | 0.457 | 0.2353 | 1262 |
| 28 | Toronto | 13 | 17 | 4 | 30 | 34 | 0.441 | 0.2321 | 1225 |
| 29 | NY Islanders | 9 | 18 | 6 | 24 | 33 | 0.364 | 0.1940 | 1053 |
| 30 | New Jersey | 9 | 24 | 2 | 20 | 35 | 0.286 | 0.1564 | 844 |
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the relatively good news about these 'Real' NHL Rankings
looking at the top of this list, and in general, no one blows ones mind away
there really is more parity than there used to be, and so given our existing & future prospects – including 20 and unders such as Bailey/JT/Cizikas/Nino/de Haan/Hamonic/Poulin etc.
we really do have the prospect of being decent in the years to come – now if we had an owner and/or future stadium situation giving a bit more leeway to spend…
one can only dream
Confidence?
Player confidence should be in the rise. they have played better. The lines have been clicking, though they have to show more responsibility. The defense has played okay, but they are thin… and they’re still lacking that the top. But I guess when the two most visibly invisible players return things will get even better… and look at it this way… if you’re not playing to where the Islanders see you in their future (almost anybody that wasn’t drafted by the team since 2006) you will most likely end up on a better team… win-win!
Team confidence has got to be on the rise. There is a whole lot of ink being spent on Islander prospects… and the ink is being linked by Webby each week so…
Fan confidence should be on the rise.
If we could all get hypnotized and have post 2015 removed from our subconcious… things might be a little brighter around here.
Lighthouse Hockey: "where everybody knows your screen name" -mikb
I watch hockey because I love the game, I watch the Islanders because I hate myself.
The Glossary Lives
So Gilroy was really pullin a Witt last night.
last night’s game was an abomination. Everyone looked hungover.
or maybe...
he was “being Witty”
Lighthouse Hockey: "where everybody knows your screen name" -mikb
I watch hockey because I love the game, I watch the Islanders because I hate myself.
If we're a Million Miles away from anyone...
What does that make Toronto and Jersey?
Does Burnside even look at the rankings before he spouts off his bs?
"My lasting image of Lemieux interacting with an Islanders defenseman is of Mario getting knocked on his ass by Darius Kasparaitis in 1993." - rmblifn #VolekStatue
Contributor to Lighthouse Hockey not sure if I'm the Sniper or the Enforcer.
After february...
the islanders can have a promotion called the Million Mile March… were everybody is given a single month Islander calendar, an Islander compass and 2.5 hours to figure out the double entendre
Lighthouse Hockey: "where everybody knows your screen name" -mikb
I watch hockey because I love the game, I watch the Islanders because I hate myself.
Wiz traded to montreal for 2nd round pick + conditional 5th rounder
http://islanders.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=547578&navid=DL|NYI|home
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
At least we got more back then we gave
Trying to look up what the comp pick is… I’m guessing it’s the 61st so it’s really like a 3rd.
You mean to tell me shooting the puck from 70 feet out doesn't earn us extra goals?
I was wrong
It will be 50th overall regardless of how Montreal finishes.
You mean to tell me shooting the puck from 70 feet out doesn't earn us extra goals?
Habs Eye on the Prize Covered what the Comp pick entails back in June
http://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2010/6/19/1526177/a-clarification-on-the-status-of
You mean to tell me shooting the puck from 70 feet out doesn't earn us extra goals?
I'm pretty happy with it
So we turned a dead assett into two picks. Great retention of value for a pick up.
Hopefully they turn it into some more assetts on the blue line. This team is in dire need of help back there. When Donovan, Ness and Dehaan are due there really isn’t much else brewing on the farm beyond them.
Not a cap expert but with Wisniewski gone does that make it harder to get rid of Roloson now? Seems to me with Isles near the salary cap floor other moves could be a issue.
I think he helped the power play.
He was a liability on D. His +/- and Corsi numbers attest to that.
Didnt help the powerplay?
Who else is going to play the point like that?
Constantly building for the future.
I'm fine with it if it was March
But in December, our D now looks like Hamonic/A-Mac, Eaton/Martinek, Jurcina/Hillen. With Martinek still out at the moment, that movies Jurcina or Hillen up and you pencil in Gervais as your #7. Our defense just got weaker without a strong D on the backend for our PP.
PP is the only thing hurt by this. Wiz was far from a good defensive d-man. Hillen/Gervais can take his defensive minutes pretty well, going to be interesting to see who gets the pp minutes.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
Hillen/Gervais do not have the upside that Wiz had (as minor as it was)
Ugh, I don’t even know why I’m defending Wiz, I didn’t even like him.
Hillen actually has the same exact upside as wiz if he got his slapper up to par.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
I know, that's really the only thing stopping hillen from being a force on the pp.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
Wow!
I was not expecting this. I like Wiz. He has talent. A lot of it. Maybe it was that rocket he blasted past Price on the 5 on 3 that sold MTL.
A 1st/2nd sandwich pick (31 overall) and a 5th in 2012? Hmm.. I would have thought he was worth more than that.
It’s a 2nd round pick, 50th overall. Not 31st overall.
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it sn... oh, wait a minute. OK, that's enough!
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Dec 29, 2010 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
Actually... genius at work
This should almost guarentee the #2 selection if we don’t win the lottery… and when they add the second rounder for Roloson this should give them the 1st overall and about the 20th when they trade their two extra second rounders on draft day. The more darts the better…
Lighthouse Hockey: "where everybody knows your screen name" -mikb
I watch hockey because I love the game, I watch the Islanders because I hate myself.
which means...
from now until june we should support them as much as they support us.
Lighthouse Hockey: "where everybody knows your screen name" -mikb
I watch hockey because I love the game, I watch the Islanders because I hate myself.
I like the way you think :)
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
I thought that was supposed to be last year.
How many NHL-caliber D-men does this friggin’ team need to get through a season?
Garth Snow saw that this season was a throwaway one, and took advantage of a situation. He, in essence, traded the Isles worse 3rd round pick for a second round (#50 overall, guaranteed) and a fifth rounder the following year. Hmm. Well, I guess it’s something.
The only thing that bothers me is that Snow and Wang already consider this a lost season. Granted, the injury bug killed us yet again, but the team is returning to health right now. I’d rather wait a while and see if the Isles’ recent run is either a flash in the pan or the real deal.
I don’t think we have to worry about salary issues. If someone needs Rollie near the trade deadline, they can dump off some useless salary they’ve buried in the minors to us, basically anyone in their final year of their contract. They’ll simply not be re-signed. No biggie there.
Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it sn... oh, wait a minute. OK, that's enough!
by ICanSeeForIslesAndIsles on Dec 29, 2010 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Well, the season is somewhat lost when you can play over .500 hockey the rest of the season and still be in the bottom of the eastern conference and nhl, with a likely top 5 pick at your calling.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
