What would a trade for Zach Parise look like?
by BCISLEMAN on Dec 14, 2010 5:15 AM EST
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Let me preface this by saying that I still do not believe that such a trade is possible. Parise is a player that Lou will keep a Devil at all costs. If he did trade him, he would be very unlikely to trade him within the division. If he was willing to trade him to the Islanders, Parise would be unlikely to sign here.
With all those caveats thrown in, this is what I think such a deal would look like. The Islanders and the Devils would almost certainly have the top two picks in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft. A pick of that value should easily be worth two mid to late first round picks that would be the norm in such deals.
The deal would send our number one or number two overall pick, promising young forward Michael Grabner and blue chip goaltender prospect Mikko Koskinnen, and the Islanders 2012 second round pick to the Devils. The deal is conditioned on Parise signing with the Islanders. He signs a seven year, $52.5 million deal with the Islanders.
Among other things, this would really turn the page on the Milbury era. If as we all suspect, Comeau and Gervais are not re-signed and, perhaps, Frans is traded, DP would be the sole surviving legacy of the era. Parise's signing would put a period on that by undoing one of Milbury's greatest blunders.
With Parise on board, the Islanders would be able to put up a top line of Parise--John Tavares--Kyle Okposo followed by Matt Moulson--Josh Bailey--Nino Niederreiter. If Kirill Kabanov got his act together and Kirill Petrov came over, the Islanders could add a third line of Kabanov--Ullstrom--Petrov backed up by Matt Martin--Zenon Konopka--Jesse Joensuu. Now that's what I call firepower!!!
Back that up with a defense built around Mark Streit, Travis Hamonic, Calvin De Haan, and Andy MacDonald and add Kevin Poulin and Anders Nilsson between the pipes, and you have the makings of a Cup champion. Who knows, maybe it will happen.
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we have nothing to offer
the Devils are going to get a top pick too. maybe a young G intrigues them but I doubt it.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
Yes, but with this deal they have the top two picks—Couturier AND Larsson—plus a budding star forward in Grabner, plus an NHL-ready blue chip G in Koskinnen, plus we could throw in an NHL-ready and experienced budding star 2nd line C in Schremp, plus a 2012 pick. They would get four more NHL-ready players some of star quality for less than half the price of the one they are trading. It would be a huge step forward in the rebuild.
These guys are budding stars? Hilarious.
Not a single GM in the entire world would take the deal you suggested. And for good reason: they would be fired / publicly beaten if they did.
It may be the only way Lou can rebuild his team
He won’t get much for Brodeur and the other guys all have NTCs and NMCs. With this deal, he gets four players who can play now and at a high level plus a quality pick next year. And while Grabner and Schremp aren’t on Parise’s level, I do see them as budding young stars. Grabner has been very good for us all year and is a dark horse for the Calder while Schremp has been carrying the offense for the last week or so.
wont get much for marty? explain what not much is before i tear into that comment…
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
he's at the end of his career
who is going to give Lou a windfall of young players for him? Maybe you know of a team. If you do, please share.
washington, tampa may be the two likeliest
we gave up a nillson omara and a 1st for 18 games of ryan smyth…a high end but not quite elite player at the time… you dont think marty’s resume will demand at least that much?
but if there’s an injury, all bets are off… if colorado loses anderson say, i think they make a play for marty, rentals and trading for goalie legends works for them
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
A lot of people don't like to mention it, but Marty isn't marty without the devils "extreme/hardcore" trap system.
He is still a great goalie without the system, but not an elite without it. And right now at this point in his career, he might be worth a 1st or 2nd rounder, but I don’t think more then that.
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you realize he had a 2.24 and a .916 last year right? the D this year is horrendous, stood on his head vs the rags once already, enough to make me think i can squeeze 16 more wins at the end of the year out of him if i’m a GM
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
Take out special teams and shootout, and Jose Theodore was as good as Brodeur last season. Brodeur isn’t high-and-mighty. With goalies, longevity sets the elites apart. In any one season the difference between goalies is pretty small, a goal every three games max if your goaltending is minimum average.
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by red army line on Dec 14, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
and where are Nilsson and O' Marra playing now?
You won’t get core players for Marty. He’s worth more to Lou staying on and transitioning to a Koskinnen-like prospect.
jesus bc, you can’t spin where aer they now at me, because they were still 1st rounders, you’re very argument below with schremp … why do i bother…
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
they hadn’t turned into solid NHLers as Grabner and Schremp have. Marty won’t get much value for Lou now. He’s better off keeping him.
grabner was booted out of panthers camp, with one of the most damning quotes by a coach you may see for a while, and self admittledly said he was terrible and didnt deserve to be there… so now he’s a solid nhl’er with us? no, he’s still a promising young winger
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
Rumor is Grabner was too small for the GM/Coach's liking, not that he didn't have potential(which he clearly does).
LighthouseHockey.com, where debates about Scrooge happen!
He would be currently tied for second in goals scored on the Devils. Schremp would be tied for third. And they both have better + / – figures than most of the Devils team. I should add that they have achieved this in spite of the fact that Schremp has only played in 14 games and Grabner has played mostly if not all third line minutes. Grabner may have had a bad camp, but if he and Schremp continue to play as they have for the Isles this year, they would be valuable pieces for any rebuilding, ours or theirs.
Solid NHLers?
If thats the case than the NHL is a pretty soft league LOL
we gave up a nillson omara and a 1st for 18 games of ryan smyth…a high end but not quite elite player at the time… you dont think marty’s resume will demand at least that much?
That was years ago and at a different position. The market for goalies has tanked. Someone might be tempted to take a flyer on Brodeur for his mythical resume, but considering his cap hit ($5.2M) it would cripple most contending teams.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
when
do goalies with his resume go on the market though? the market may have tanked, but there’s never been a market for the career leader in shutouts
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
hold on
“Career leader in shutouts” is kind of like “career leader in games played.” You can only get one at most per night. After a while, you get to be “career leader” because your career is almost over, and you’re no longer as good as you were in getting there.
The cap hit would be pro-rated over the rest of this season, so a team that can’t afford $5.2 million for the full year could afford him at one-fourth that come deadline time. The question is, will he be worth it? The team obtaining him won’t give up so much that they destroy the team he’s supposed to be leading to the promised land.
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You think Brodeur is giving up his TMC
after leaving millions on the floor when he signed his last contract because he wanted to stay in Jersey? I don’t think so.
NTIPC
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Dec 14, 2010 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
Thought he was San(s) Clause
but he has a NTC…not a NMC. And that means that Parise is really the only option for Lou unless he can convince one or more of the vets to waive their clauses.
:) Heh
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 14, 2010 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
1%
garth would never part with young cheap picks… never!
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
maybe we can get mirror universe Parise
You know… the one in the highlight video above, who shoots right-handed, wears number “e”, and drives a Drof, insured by Oceig.
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Travis Zayjac
The Dev’s will have cap problems next season. TZ has been an underperforming forward. He has speed, size and a great scoring background.
I think
that the asking price for Zach Parise would be much too high, in terms of draft picks and players. While having a Parise in Isles colours once again would be nice, I’m not sure I’m willing to give up what it would take.
I have another suggestion. One of the things that this team lacks in a bog way right now is spirit, gumption and attitude. Spirit, gumption and attitude is getting a pretty solid, very exciting Montreal Canadiens blueliner in trouble right now. I’ve loved PK Subban since I first saw him at the WJC and he seems not to be fitting into the Habs conservative system right now. I wonder what it would take to get him?
NTIPC
by Nova Scotia Isles Fan on Dec 14, 2010 11:40 AM EST reply actions
You make a very interesting point about the fact that if we trade for parise, we get his RFA status.
Thus making US the team to match any offer he is given and in the seat of control. That imo, would be worth the trade.
On to the trade:
Compensation for a $7.5mil/yr player taking from RFA is at least: 2 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, and a 3rd.
So 1st option:
- 2012 + 2013 1st round draft pick, 2012 2nd round draft pick , and 2012 3rd round draft + Comeau pick for Parise
2nd option:
-2012 1st rounder, 2012 2nd round pick, 2012 3rd round pick, and Michael Grabner + Comeau
3rd option:
2012 1st rounder, Rob Schremp, Michael Grabner, 2012 2nd/3rd round pick, + Comeau
I might even include Schremp in all the deals because we don’t have a spot for him in the future here, so might as well. All deals include Blake Comeau if they want him, and maybe hillen or gervais to sweeten the deal if need be(we don’t “need” both for depth).
IMO, 25% likely hood that we can trade or get him through RFA dealings.
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To be blunt, the Islanders not going to get Parise for waiver wire fodder (RSH, Grabner), disappointing (even for this team) busts (Comeau), and some draft picks. The idea of “sweetening” a deal by adding Gervais is hysterical.
I would put the likelihood of getting Parise at negative 100%.
Grabner and Schremp are both first round picks
and are becoming solid NHLers. They were only on the waiver wire because Edmonton didn’t do a good job with developing Schremp and Grabner is one that I am sure the Cats would like to have back.
I like both players. But to think that they would be centerpieces of a deal for Parise is pure fantasy.
Tell you what: go make the proposal on a Devils fan site and see what response you get.
K. I'll fanpost them one of my trade offers and see what happens.
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That is not even remotely good enough though. The odds are overwhelming that the #1 pick would not translate into a superstar like Parise.
both Couturier and Larsson are projected to be comparable
so I wouldn’t say that its overwhelming odds at all.
well if I were a NJD fan, I probably wouldn't go for it either
simply because I wouldn’t want to trade Zach under any circumstances. But it may be the way Lou would have to go.
Just see if they think it’s fair value. Is there a way to poll the hockey community generally thru this site?
I think that substantially less than 2% of respondents would think that is fair value. I could be wrong.
I will never understand how you can truly be so pessimistic about our team and even brighter young players as a fan. It's truly mindboggling
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It’s amazing you guys can’t recognize that you’re proposing the #1 overall pick + nothing for a superstar.
To wit, even if NJD would consider trading Parise — which they won’t — at a minimum the asking price from the Isles start out at Tavares + #1 overall + substantially more from there. Probably
Two former first rounders who are turning into good NHLers, a blue chip just about NHL-ready goaltender prospect, and a second rounder aren’t nothing.
This is absolutely astounding
By blue chip NHL-ready goalie you’re referring to the one who has a .890 SV% in the AHL, right?
So you don't believe that grabner or schremp would be picked up immediately if waived? Really?
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Maybe for RSH, maybe not for Grabner.
The point is these are projects that the Isles picked up off waivers. And they’re now both getting tons of ice time and performing passably well on a historically awful team.
That does not make them solid NHL players. And it certainly does not mean they can be used as trade bait for a superstar.
If a player can produce when players around him aren't doing much,
does that not make him worth more then a player/prospect producing on a good team/line?
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Not necessarily. Because if you require massive ice time to produce at an average or mediocre levels — like most Islanders — you’re not going to get it on a good team. Or even a less awful team.
Ziggy could produce when nobody around him was doing anything
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 14, 2010 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly. Someone that usually can produce well with little help is touted rather then looked down upon like ap77 claims.
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Please don't compare Ziggy
to Grabner or Schremp yet. I get the idea, but Ziggy was a true superstar that could produce in any situation at virtually every level he played. Those guys can become that, but I haven’t seen any real evidence that they are game changers on Ziggy’s level…or for that matter even Czerkawski’s yet. Do either you or TMC really believe that Schremp or Grabner are going to be producing or have produced remotely close to Ziggy’s level…Their “production levels” are night and day.
Not that I think you were comparing them TMC, just stating that Ziggy produced with noone around him…right???
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
by Keith Quinn on Dec 14, 2010 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Not ziggy level,
just saying that grabs and schremp seem like players that can produce without much line help. Grabs speed and positioning creates scoring chances for himself, while schremps hand-eye/smarts and “lofting” in the right positions helps him.
Both were 1st round talents(and have done great in juniors/ahl for their talents) that never had a real nhl shot before us, so it’s not a reach saying they have that ability or potential.
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Not that I think you were comparing them TMC, just stating that Ziggy produced with noone around him…right???
Yeah, I was stating it as a general reference. Ziggy wasnt a particularly BIIIG guy, he was just a guy who was allowed to cook a bit in the minors and then learned to make his own luck on the ice. That didnt help the team win, though. I remember the stats back then- if Ziggy didnt score, the Isles wouldnt win. Ziggy had to be on the board or us even to have a chance.
I sometimes imagine if he had still had a Pat or a Pierre or, sans back problems, an older Bossy to play with. Then I get sad.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 15, 2010 8:26 AM EST up reply actions
The sadness
I hear you. I loved Ziggy (Jagr light, similar mullet). Having a guy at close to 50g annually and a ppg onhis own….lament.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
by Keith Quinn on Dec 15, 2010 9:29 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
wow I miss Ziggy! Sign him
isnt he playing over there in Europe,
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 15, 2010 7:50 AM EST up reply actions
He played in the Olympics.
I watched every one of his games that I could. When they were eliminated, I was literally crying because it was the last time Id ever see Palffy on the ice.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 15, 2010 8:28 AM EST up reply actions
Ziggy
I know. I had finally turned the page, but seeing him in the Olympics brought the memories back. Still miss him. Still pissed we can’t have nice things.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
Well,
Garth says we can have nice things…we just have to wait. Feel like a freaking child!
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
but Christmas is next week
and I am sick of getting lumps of coal from the Islanders
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 16, 2010 7:08 AM EST up reply actions
Waived is free
Of course someone would pick them up, they’re cheap and by cost, relatively productive. To say they would be worth Parise is tough. Even still let’s think about this.
There would be many on this site livid that DP or JB were traded. Can you imagine the NJD communities reaction to losing a guy who has become such a fan favorite and consistent producer for RSH and MG. They would lose a lot of face, probably some tickets and revenue. It really could have an unsettling domino effect for the franchise…
What’s worse, is that everyone knows it is to fix a MISTAKE, not an attempt to make the team better or because ZP wants out, and they will focus that ire on management AND your new star player Ilya Kovulchuck.
You suck Ko-val-chuck
clap clap clapclapclap
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
but that isn't all or even most of what they would get
they would get Sean Couturier (compared to Vinny L), a blue chip G prospect, and a second rounder in addition. Maybe you throw in Frans and next year’s first as well. Lou then has his top three centers of the future, his goaltender of the future, a top six potential winger, plus two very valuable draft picks. Sounds like a healthy start on a rebuild to me…especially along with Larsson whom I assume he drafts second. Fans won’t be happy, but when were fans ever happy with a rebuild?
Wait a second!
This sounds awesome! Let’s keep those guys!
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
and let's face it
The Devils have not come close to the Cup since 2003. The Kovi trade and sign was probably just a desperation hail Mary that didn’t work. Now they have to rebuild and trading Parise is probably the way to get that started.
The kovalchuk trade was stupid.
Why bring a free ranging goal scorer whom best talent is offense and has some major defensive struggles from time to time into a system that is based on heavy trap and their forwards playing good d. Accident waiting to happen. I don’t know what their system now is with the new coach, but it ain’t working.
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It was their Ryan Smyth only a lot more expensive
This disaster makes it obvious that a rebuild is needed.
Smyth
or revisiting their “Mogilny” magic?
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
by Keith Quinn on Dec 14, 2010 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
I mean a guy who Mckeen's has labeled a top NHL goalie prospect
and two former first rounders who never should have been put on waivers and are turning into very solid NHLers.
You really think Grabner and RSH are waiver fodder?
Right now, Grabner=speedy 20goal winger(3rd liner at worst, 2nd liner most likely potential) and Schremp(50-60pts offensive center, 3rd liner most likely or 2nd liner on a team that needs more offense then defense from their forwards) are 2 of our best players(not saying much) whom are proving themselves to be solid nhlers and definitely note worthy pieces to the right franchise. I guarantee you that if garth was asked about grabner, he’d say that he is an important repeat 20goal scorer for many years to come for us. Sure, in your overly pessimistic view (which I am sure the whole site would agree on) they may be worth nothing, but to real nhl teams we could easily trade them for 2nd/3rd round draft picks in a month, let alone trade them for a better player.
Gervais=depth guy now
Hillen=potential top 4, most likely soild bottom 2
So input hillen then over gervais. And to think no one would want our draft picks, let alone 1st rounders, is something I have yet to discovered a reason for from your side of thinking.
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Yeah, the draft picks are great. The problem is that nothing else included is of value to literally any other NHL team.
Link:
Let’s give it a day or 2 and see the overall responses we get.
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Thanks, this will be great to follow.
For the record, though, the deal I was referring to was the one that BC proposed:
“The deal would send our number one or number two overall pick, promising young forward Michael Grabner and blue chip goaltender prospect Mikko Koskinnen, and the Islanders 2012 second round pick to the Devils.”
I think the ones that you posted are considerably more attractive.
Post it in the thread and see what replys you get!
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Awesome
I can’t wait till they start asking us if we’d give up JT and Hamonic for Brodeur’s left leg and Parise’s stick.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
So far
5 Yes
10 No and one comment…
Dont even talk about losing Parise, that would be one of the dumbest moves the team could make.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
If I am Lou
I would MUCH prefer a surefire NHL star with a #1 or #2 pick who could play next year and make an impact to two maybe stars with later picks who are probably several years away. Comeau and Gervais are probably guys that if we re-sign at all will be headed for Bridgeport. They aren’t considerations for such a deal. And no RFA status. Only way this works is if Parise agrees to sign a long term deal—at least five years as part of the deal.
didnt you, yesterday, say
he would NEVER sign with us?
NYI Hockey! We'll get that winless month yet!
that is the main problem
I think that Lou and Garth could work it out. Getting Zack and the NJ owner to sign off would be the reason it might not happen.
You can't sweeten a deal
With Gervais or Hillen…you can’t even sweeten a shift with Gervais or Hillen. However, I does look like scenario one or two could work. (With perhaps a change in personnel). I think given the Devs have always been defense first, you are looking at either Franz, JB, or one of the D men in that package.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Minimum the four first rounders (as in the RFA compensation scale), I would think. Maybe two firsts, JT, and Streit (not really counting salaries though).
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the RFA comp scale doesn't account for the fact that
picks in these deals are usually in the 20-25 range. You are including the #1 overall, plus two former first rounders who have developed into good NHLers and a #31 overall pick who is about NHL-ready plus a second round pick.
Hey, thank Burke and his stupid precedent with Kessel (I’m not passing judgement on the deal, just saying now others probably have to abide by it). Plus, Parise’s the third best winger in the game, if you ask me (2nd maybe, since Zetterberg often plays C).
My blog and Twitter, featuring coverage of the most unpredictable team in the NHL and where we defend Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin until the bitter end. That is to say, when someone tries to call BS on the Corsi numbers.
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by red army line on Dec 14, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
of course as Leaf fans will never tire of pointing out
Neither Burkie or Chiarelli had any idea that the Leafs would be second from the bottom when they made that deal. Garth and Lou would make this deal after the lottery drawing knowing it would be a #1 or possibly a #2.
Schremp and Grabner
They are third line types who are performing OK on a talent starved team. To call them stars and solid NHL types strains the imagination not only of me but imo of a NHL GM who is considering a trade. Lou may be having a terrible year, but he hasn’t lost his mind. Mentioning these two in the same sentence as Parise and trade sounds to me like a joke that isn’t even funny.
Schremp + Grabs=Not stars, solid-great 3rd liners, and grabs has 2nd line potential.
With Hillen and a couple 1st/2nd round picks I think it would at least be something to consider.
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with the horrible scoring on this team Brabs and Schremp have been actually bright spots
I meanboth are waiver guys, and they have scored more goals after the first 10 games than some of our top picks
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 15, 2010 7:52 AM EST up reply actions
typo suppose to be Grabs
looking at stats in the last 21 games
JT- 6 goals(3 in the ist game of thsi streak, and 3 since)
Schremp 5
MM-4
Grabner-4
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 15, 2010 8:53 AM EST up reply actions
D + 1 goal combined during streak
only Wiz has a goal and that was way back vs MTL. he has been shooting plenty, and so has A-Mac and now Hamonicgotta hope they net one
Gervais and Hillen seem to never get a shot on net, always wide
I will say there were a couple deflection I believe it was in the Boston game that came close after D shots, but I maybe wrong.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 15, 2010 8:58 AM EST up reply actions
Obviously garth doing great work, lucky we were such a bad team that we got near, if-not 1st choice at waiver guys.
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with the even more horrible scoring by the Devils
they would be among the more potent threats there as well.
Schremp and Grabner
They are third line types who are performing OK on a talent starved team
HUH? How do you define “third line type”? A third line type is normally defined as a somewhat more defensive, energy & checking type of line. Shremp and Grabner are not “third line types” at all.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 14, 2010 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
third line – or define it as not good enough to be a top-6 forward.
i consider the defensive/energy/checking line as your “checking line”, as in:
1st line
2nd line
checking line
3rd line
~~~~~
4th line = scrubs who get 1-2 minutes a game and fill in when absolutely needed
That's 5 lines, though
And I disagree with your definition of 4th line.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 14, 2010 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
no, it’s not really 5 lines, because my definition of “4th line” is usually the one (maybe 2) guy(s) who play 1-2 minutes are then stuck on a line with 1-2 other 3rd liners for a shift or two. it’s usually not a constant line. it’s aline you throw together to get your goon out there, or to get a callup a few minutes of ice time.
my definitions of 1st, 2nd & 3rd line are a combination of minutes played and talent level. sometimes your checking line will have very skilled players, but they are better suited in shut-down roles, so you wouldn’t roll them 20-25 minutes a game. it’s like when the rangers paid too many millions (shocking, i know) for Holik – he was a shutdown specialist who could give you 15-20 goals, but they paid for him like he was a 1st line center, and then expected 1st line numbers as an offensive AND defensive center. [cue Rocky the Flying Squirrel’s “that’ll never work!”]
i like grabner’s speed and wish they would try him with Tavares, see if it helps open up some ice for him & moulson. Schremp is putting up #2 center numbers because he is in that role right now – on most other teams he falls to #3 but could fill in as a #2 when he is hot and someone else is cold. i think that is what ozzyfan was referring to.
Yep. That's what I meant. And I definitely agree on grabner deserving some tryout time on JT's line.
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I think he meant 3rd line in minutes.
They play 3rd line minutes, but are offense only types pretty much. Take nielsen, plays 2nd line minutes but is a checking line/defensive forward. Some consider him a 3rd liner for his production and role, while others consider him a 2nd liner for his toi.
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Yes
Thats what I meant in terms of Schremp PAP and Grabner. they are offense only who would be in the AHL on play-off teams. They shy away from contact and play the sniper game. except they’re not great at that either. In recent games they have scored, but I will revisit this later in the season.
The poll is missing an option
“No chance in hell”
"We've made a final offer. We hope Ziggy Palffy will come to his senses. We have NO hope his agent will." - Mike Milbury
I think Moulson would go
I think Lou would want one of our top forwards (Moulson, JB, NN, Ox), and I’d only be willing to part with Moulson. I don’t care how good of friends Tavares and Moulson are, doesn’t seem to help them on the ice with Ox not there to help them. No they aren’t the dynamic duo, and both would be happy if they were WINNING no matter where they played, no matter who they played with.
Parise for 2011 1st rd pick, 2012 1st rd pick, and Moulson
Garth could try and suave Lamoriello into doing it for less, such as Grabner/ Scremp/ Koskinen, but I think Lou would do his homework and would not settle for less. He’d want Poulin not Mikko. He’d want Okposo not Grabner. He’d want two 1st rounders, not a 2011 1st and a 2012 2nd rounder. I think the haggling would continue back and forth and Garth would rather “upgrade Moulson” than part with the potential of Bailey and Okposo.
"I think we got the better Lindros." - Fulla Maloney; "If I'm wrong about Kvasha, then off with my head" - Voldemort; {{lifts hand; several pencils, keyboards, and cell phones shatter}} - Darth Wang
I could see that, I'd do it even though I like Moulson, it makes sense.
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I would hate to see it but would understand and agree with this move
I wouldnt send 2 1st rounder though, maybe a 2nd and a 1st and get a 3rd or 4th in return
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 15, 2010 7:54 AM EST up reply actions
Lou would probably need a marquee name attached on our end
Moulson has been our best this year and last…better than even JT. So it makes sense.
No way
This deal won’t ever happen. Even though we believe Grabner and Schremp are good all others see is they were wavier pick ups who’s numbers aren’t that great. We could pick up something for them, but not a star like Parise.
Constantly building for the future.
Anyway the deal as I have amended it is
The #1 overall pick (Couturier), Schremp, Grabner, Neilsen, whichever G prospect Lou likes best, and our first and second rounders next year. If Lou likes one of the Kirills or Nino (I would hate that but) maybe you do that.
As I said above, the current Devils team has NO chance of going anywhere without a total rebuild and trading Parise is the only real way to do that. Could Lou work out a better deal elsewhere? Maybe. But I do not think that this is that unreasonable. And as i said at the top, I don’t really think it will happen anyway.
Now take my Mother-in-law Please
Remember that old line, well, well I say that about the players you have named. Maybe Lou will do it if he is insane.
new proposal
think they’d go for Parise for Tavares straight up? Or maybe Tavares plus a 2nd?
i woudn’t do Tavares AND a 1st, unless i’,m getting back something else.
i just don;t see 2-4 depth players (any combo of Schremp, grabner, hillen, gervais) making it a “quantity = quality” deal when included with the other stuff.
the idea of their choice of our top goalie prospects and 2 #1 picks seems fair, but they would probably want someone to play now as well.
They'd probably do Tavares and a 2nd. He is highly highly touted. EVERYONE in the nhl thinks he's going to be an elite offensive center in a few years, so I am pretty sure they'd do that.
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i know that, but if you want one of the best wings in the game, you have to give up something of equal value in return, especially dealing with a smarter GM like Lou.
sometimes a quantity for quality deal can be done, but most times it is a trade of an equal talent for an equal talent. it’s the old addage of “three 15 goal scorers do not equal a 40 goal scorer”. sometimes those deals make sense if you need to pick up certain elements your team lacks (toughness, checking) for a surplus (say scoring) you may have, but that is usually done to put your team over the top for a cup run.
but Couturier is not that
he is projected to be another Vinny L. Do I know he will be that? No. But I also cannot be guaranteed that Parise will be the same player coming off his injury with a new team. Couturier is a good bet to be a team’s franchise center of the future who should be NHL-ready. The other key elements are a franchise goaltender of the future (Koskinnen, Poulin, Nilsson?), and a marquee player other than JT (Moulson). I mean if Lou makes the deal with LA, he’s not going to expect Kopitar, is he? No, he’ll get Schenn, Bernier, and maybe Hickey…although that would almost strip LA’s cupboard bare in terms of prime prospects.
I was counter offerred this on the devils site and said I would accept to it, what do you guys think?:
Devils get:
- 2011 1st round pick
-Niederreiter
-Hillen
-2011 2nd round pick
-2012 2nd round pick
-2013 2nd round pick
Isles Get:
-Parise
I’d give up nino for a parise, not sure anyone else, but nino will never reach Parise’s level, and all the other picks aside from the 1st rounder usually turn into role players or average bottom 4 d-men at best.
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Lou would probably want a G prospect
Why would they want Hillen? He must not know Islander prospects too well.
We have a number of promising goalie prospects.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 15, 2010 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
yeah I just picked Mikko because McKeen's rated him higher than Poulin
but maybe he likes Poulin better, or Nilsson, or even Rosen, or a guy coming up in the draft. I would think that establishing an heir apparent to Marty would be a key element in this trade. After Couturier (franchise center), and Larsson (franchise defenseman), the goaltender prospect or a pick to draft him plus a recognizable veteran like Moulson would be the key elements in the deal if it happened…although of course, they would be getting one of the first two on their own.
say what you will about Grabner and Schremp
either one has to be more desirable than Hillen at this point.
NHL '11
We should just run the GM mode trade simulator to see if this stuff works out. I think it factors in the cap and CBA. Better than unconfirmable speculation.
"Gervais...he looks danger in the fist with his face!" JPinVA
Why a trade like this might happen
As I said above, it should be obvious to everyone—including Lou and Zach—that the current Devils team isn’t going to be a contender. They were never a real contender before…not since they won in 2003 which was, I believe the year Zach was drafted. So he has never really come close with this team.
Knowing that, it is just possible that Zach might be amenable to a trade to a team with a headstart on rebuilding like the Islanders—although I am sure he’d prefer a team that was ready to contend now. Getting the other of the top two picks along with promising young NHLers, a blue chip G prospect, and some nice picks next year would be a reasonable return for Lou. Not many teams will be able to take Zach’s cap burden and none can offer Sean Couturier on a silver platter.
compare possible deals
we offer Couturier and Koskinnen, Poulin, or Nilsson plus Moulson as the key pieces vs
LA—Schenn, Bernier, and Simmonds. Plus our picks would likely be more valuable. Which deal would you take if you were Lou?
The devils were talking about a king's trade for parise, and one of the must have's is jack johnson in the deal. That could make them the favorite.
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you are talking about the fans?
Doubt Lombardi is trading Johnson. His whole cap strategy is built around keeping him and Doughty. If Lou is insisting on Johnson, he probably won’t a deal. They might throw in Hickey with the players mentioned. Hickey and Larsson would make a pretty good pairing.
Trouble with Parise deal is.............
Unless he gets back to his pre [serious injury ] physical and playing shape there is tremendous risk involved. His quick mobility needs a knee that is 100%. No doctor can guarantee that. What is certain in any deal is obvious, we lose good personel. At least in a cash deal you just lose money, not the product on the ice.
I am assuming that he will be back on the ice playing for some months prior to season's end
that should offer a good handle on what his knee is like and what he can do.
This really all sounds silly.
First off Lou isn’t trading Parise unless he can’t resign him or he’s got potential to being an injury issue for the next 5 years.
So… I don’t want him if he’s going to price himself off the Island in 2 years when his RFA status is up… and I definitely don’t want him if he’s going to be DP2.
Yes, Zach is a proven NHL comodity… but we, unfortunately are not. This team has two years before a guy like Zach can really help it and by that time… he’s a ghost.
And what you’re offering for a healthy signable Zach Parise… come on. It just doesn’t work for either side. Lou would need very high draft picks for a long time, and a second level player that isn’t going to be in the 7M/per year league for a while… so you’re looking at our next two first rounders and Kyle and/or Josh. Go Scratch! Because no one player is worth that much to a rebuilding franchise on a budget.
I’m gonna pass on this one. When you’re making a deal you should be able to help each other without crippling each other… this deal has more negative potential for each side than it does positive.
If Garth was smart (and I think he is) he puts more value into his cap space and just continues to do what he has by picking up pieces and developing players. If he can get a healthy piece who will sign for no more than three years… UNTIL THEY’VE DONE SOMETHING FOR THE ISLES TO WARRANT PAYMENT (see DP v KO) then I don’t want to see anymore long term signings of other people’s problems.
DP… 15 years 4.5 Million for what… really?
When Kyle is signed he will at least have proven his worth as a second line RW…. and he should want to sign a two or three year deal because he has the potential to be a first liner when he hits true UFA status. If they go out and give Kyle first line money for 7 or 8 years they’d be just as stupid as their RDP signing… and this franchise will remain in the hole it’s in forever.
Jack's not nimble, Jack's not quick, but Jack can get another top five pick!
by JPinVA on Dec 15, 2010 9:11 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
disagree
Condition of the trade would be a long term deal for Parise, so RFA doesn’t enter in. Deal would be the #1 overall, Moulson (after JT, our best forward right now), Schremp, Lou’s favorite G prospect, and our first and second rounders next year. Lou needs to totally rebuild because the team as currently constituted isn’t going anywhere.
First thought...
If Lou’s sellin’ I ain’t buyin.
But your trade makes no sense.
Moulson is only Islander property until the end of the year. Schremp also…. and I don’t think you can negotiate a long term deal before a trade. Look what happened to the Devils last year with Kovi. That wasn’t a done deal after the season. There are no guarentees. And Lou can’t guarentee Zach’s health. Nobody can. I just don’t think you can leverage your future at this point on a guy coming back from a knee injury.
And to give up Poulin or Koskinen when this team doesn’t have a true #1 penciled in for the next 5 years. That doesn’t make sense either. We really have nothing of value that is expendable.
Jack's not nimble, Jack's not quick, but Jack can get another top five pick!
I'm pretty sure you can't make a deal contingent on something like "will sign a long-term deal"
If the Devils signed him and then traded him, that’s one thing… the Islanders can’t arrange a long-term deal for Parise beforehand with his agent – it’s huge trouble if they’re caught.
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seems like I have read where in precisely this sort of situation
the trading team grants permission for the other team to try to get the player to commit. I could be wrong, but I seem to recall something like that. Of course, you could also have the deal go forward with two different packages: one if he signs with the Islanders, the other if he does not.
disagree
Trade or no trade, Moulson will get a deal before the entry draft and even if Schremp doesn’t have a deal in place, do you really think he’s going to turn down a reasonable offer from Lou?
ZP is scheduled to return in early February. That will mean as many as 33 games before the season ends. Between that and medical examinations, I think the team can be pretty sure where he’s at.
Couturier has no value? Moulson has no value? And none of our three blue chip goaltender prospects have value? Let’s say we include Koskinnen in the deal. Poulin is about ready to debut and we have Nilsson and Rosen in the pipeline. We use a third round pick to replace Koskinnen and we’re good.
JT needs an elite playmaker on his line. You could draft Couturier and have him center JT and Kyle. Or you could draft Larsson or Landeskog and move Bailey up to top line center. Getting Parise makes this team better sooner without really hurting us developmentally the way getting an older player like Iginla would. And I think that, after this season, the team needs to start winning.
The devils have needs for a young center, a young d-man, and a goalie.
Plus everyone could use scoring, so moulson does make sense.
I agree with you. If I were the devils, I’d find it hard to turn down a trade that includes these players locked up for a couple years: Schremp, Hillen(is useful next to the right d-man, which the devils can pair him with), Moulson, Mikko, + a/this year’s 1st rounder and a 2nd/3rd rounder. That’s a lot of players. Hillen has shown he can be a solid #4 guy while generating offense with the right partner, schremp is a very productive offensive 3rd line center, Moulson is a 25goal scorer, Mikko has potential, and you add them to the picks and it’s a reasonable deal.
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Bottom line
For JT’s career to really take off like we need it to, he needs an experienced and skilled playmaker who still has a fair amount of game left as a linemate. Dougie can no longer fill that role. If Garth could work a deal with Lou that Elias would agree to—maybe a second rounder—he could help ignite JT’s career over the next few years. If Garth could swing that, just use the #1 pick to get Larsson and give players like Nino, the Kirills, and Lee time to mature and all will be well. But JT needs his Marty St. Louis NOW or he’s going to get all messed up. If Garth can’t get a skilled veteran in here soon, I think he needs to look at a deal like this one…or for Brad Richards maybe.
Yes. A skilled veteran to take some pressure off JT would do wonders.
Either that or a comination of:
-Okposo becoming a 25goal scorer(+ playing on JT’s line)
-Nino becoming a 25goal scorer(+ playing on JT’s line)
-Moulson becoming a consistent 30-35goal scorer
I don’t know about JT being ruined by not having one, but somewhat unproductive yeah. 24goals last year as a rookie show’s JT can do things by himself, but to take himself to the next level of 40goal+ land will take another real scoring threat or passer on his line for that to be accomplished.
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Actually the Gagne deal is probably the most logical
Tampa really needs Roli and Gagne probably has a bit more tread left on his tires than Elias does…although Elias is the better talent and the better mentor probably as well.. It would just be a matter of convincing Gagne to agree and then hopefully it works out and he agrees to a 2-3 year deal.
Your correct, Gagne is the best possibility out there for a number of reasons. He'd at least be worth the 1yr rental to see what he's got either way.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
the St Pete paper beatwriter's opinion
No way they trade Gagne, although they might want to trade for Roli.
Results thus far over at In Lou We Trust
Roughly 70% against, 30% in favor.
Actually, I’m pretty shocked that 30% would take that package.
my guess is that the 70% would not want him traded under any circumstances
regardless of what was coming back and I fully understand that.
Welp, the question asked them to assume that they must trade Parise, it’s just about return.
I suspect that most of the 30% are Islanders fans, frankly. Not a single comment seems to view the trade favorably in that thread. And rightly so, in my view. The Devs could get a superstar back for Parise in all likelihood, so you don’t take picks + shit in return.
I would still bet that the 70% would not favor a trade regardless
and most fans for most teams would be the same. They would not want their team’s most recognizable star traded no matter what the terms. I fully understand that. If the other team is giving up a superstar, why trade for Parise? Why not just keep their own guy? The #1 overall isn’t just any other pick and Moulson certainly isn’t @#%&. If Lou is going to make this trade at all, he is going to do it more for that #1 pick and for nice prospects as well as a cheap quality player like Moulson. The reason he does it, if he does it, is to rebuild the team—-not to trade cap hit for cap hit.
Moulson is also an UFA.
My guess is that, if he really wanted to trade Parise, Lou could get a gaggle of draft picks and a team-controlled budding superstar like Drew Doughty or someone similar.
I think you’re wildly overestimating the Devils need for a complete rebuild. Yes, they’ve having an Islanders-esque season thus far. But they also finished second in the conference last year.
He could not get Doughty
Kings would never trade him. And a gaggle of picks, assuming he could get it, doesn’t equal the #1 overall IMHO.
Yes, they finished second in the conference…and were quickly never heard from again. Happens to them every season. They have a good regular season and disappear in the first round. Only now they are having what will surely be one of if not the worst season in their history and, apart from Parise, Kovi, and A-Train, all of their best players are fast approaching if not at the end of their careers. My analysis is spot on. Both they and the Flames badly need a rebuild. But with all those NTCs and NMCs, it will not be easy.
Not sure what you are saying nope to
If it is to the need for a rebuild, consider this: apart from Parise and Kovi who are 26 and 27 respectively, all of their core offensive guys are in their mid 30s. Brodeur is 38, Hedberg 37. Volchenkov is the youngest of their top defenders and he is 28. The others are in their early to mid 30s.
The team has done nothing since their last Cup win in 2003. This season only punctuates the obvious: the Devils team as currently constituted will win nothing besides early draft picks and maybe not even that given that they have to give one back to the NHL. Getting the top two picks and a number of other nice young players and picks would be a way to jumpstart the rebuild. It also might convince others to waive their clauses and agree to trades.
sigh
anyone who followed this team through the dynasty era and the struggles before will tell you that that and a couple of bucks will get you a subway token. What matters is that they perennially have made the playoffs since 2003 and got their butts handed to them. The idea here is to get the Cup and if you don’t have a team that can do that—and this Devils team has shown convincingly over and over again that it cannot—you need to figure out a way to add or subtract so that it can or rebuild it. Most of the current squad’s best players are reaching the end of their playing careers and this current disaster suggests that they may have reached it sooner than anyone thought. Time to rebuild. The question is how.
There are no more subway tokens
Some of their players are aging, I’ll give you that. But they still have Parise, Kovi, Volchenkov at or near their prime. That’s a nice core. And, unlike the Isles, they have the option to net FAs. Calling for a complete rebuild is premature at best.
Most of their players have aged
and a championship core nowadays starts with the top two centers. Arnott is 35 and Zajac is average at best. If we draft Larsson than OK they get Couturier. They still are years away from getting a goalie who can be mentioned in the same sentence as Marty. And I am far from convinced that Kovi will ever be at the core of a championship team. They need a PF to replace Langenbrunner, a playmaker to replace Elias, and a third line center to replace Rolston. They have a lot of work to do and they are going to have a difficult time doing it unless the veterans agree to be moved.
Also, they may have been a desirable target for FAs…BEFORE when they were perceived as a team that was on the cusp and still had the aura of Cup winners. Now they have followed five seasons of abject playoff failure with an absolute disaster of a season. Many other FAs may be reluctant to follow in the footsteps of Kovi and Volchenkov . Moreover all of those cap dollars tied up with Kovi and all of those immovable vets will make it all but impossible to sign the FAs that do want to come.
They have been living off a good trap system and an above average goalie for years.
They don’t find a replacement for Brodeur, they are likely average at best next year. Playoff bubble team if they can play as a team, but based on all their old players, I’m going to say it’s fair to say if they resign parise they will have some major cap problems in the next couple years and likely roster issues from their contract problems unless they magically dump some older vets that are paid a premium. If I’m a devil fan, I’m not liking the future. Ask any devil fan about their goaltending prospects and players they have tried out in the bottom 6 this year and they will tell you their farm system is having a drought.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
logically
If I am Parise’s agent, I am going to want at least as much as Kovi. Will Lou be able to pay him that? And if he does, what sort of team will the Devils be able to build around him and Kovi for the next 5-10 years? The Devils are in trouble. Our main trouble for the future is whether Wang can sort out where the team is going to be. Lou’s main trouble is whether he can rebuild the Devils into a respectable team at all.
This is ridiculous
“Abject playoff failure?”
Come on. Only one team wins the cup. And losing a best of 7 series somewhere along the way in the most difficult championship tournament in all of sports doesn’t make a team an abject failure.
It’s hard to take this kind of stuff seriously, honestly.
On the subject of Brodeur, please see:
I agree, it is ridiculous to keep questioning that the Devils have been a playoff failure
Since 2003, they have lost in the second round twice and then three straight one and dones. Apart from the 2009-10 season when they went to 7 games against Carolina, each of their losses has been in 5 games. I mean we are not talking about making it to even Game 7 in the second round where they were ever even close to going to the Conference Finals much less the Cup Finals. Each time, the other team walked all over them. In other words, they have repeatedly made it to the dance but have not once since 2003 even come close to even competing to get into the Cup Finals. That’s about as abject as you can get short of Islander Leaf like futility and in case you missed it, we are rebuilding and the Leafs ought to be. If you don’t think the Devils have been an abject playoff failure since 2003, maybe you should google Einstein and the definition of insanity.
you are the one disconnecting
by any reasonable standard, the Devils have been abject playoff failures since 2003. What other team has been back to the dance as often as they have in the past five years and has failed as completely as they have once they were there? The past five years they have been the Buffalo Bills of the Stanley Cup playoffs. No doubt that was part of the reason the ownership wanted Kovi…to try to get them some playoff success before all of their core was gone. It clearly hasn’t worked.
Sharks, Calgary, Vancouver, Flyers, Senators, Stars, Avs, Blues, etc etc — i.e., every team that hasn’t won a cup.
All abject failures that should rebuild immediately!
First, Calgary, Flyers, Stars all have won Cups.
Second, the current Calgary team DOES need to be rebuilt and if you think I am wrong, look at what the Calgary press has had to say about it.
Third, when you repeatedly make it to the playoffs and repeatedly fall flat on your face without once coming close to even getting into the Conference Finals and your players are mostly approaching the end of their careers, the need for a rebuild should be obvious…but I guess that you are having a problem understanding that.
Those teams have won cups since 2003 (the year you selected yourself)?
Wow, I’m sure that is news to them. Also: the Devils have won cups!
You didn't specify 2003 in your statement
and precisely none of those teams has the number of top players approaching retirement age that the Devils do. They have repeatedly failed in the playoffs since 2003. If they had once even come close to the Conference Finals, I could see reason to believe that this team was not in need of a rebuild. But you combine the repeated playoff failures, a disaster of a season, a bunch of key players nearing retirement with NTCs or NMCs, a cap crisis that is about to be made twice as bad because Parise’s agent is almost certainly going to want a deal comparable to Kovi’s and you have a team desperately needing a rebuild but with no sure way to do it…other than trading Parise.
Stars have won CUP, singular
And it was a while ago. Same for Calgary, only even longer ago. And the Flyers’ last Cup was 35 freakin’ years ago. If any team is the Buffalo Bills of the NHL right now, it’s Philly – six trips to the Cup finals since their championships, zero rings.
I think it’s more precise to call the Devils “playoff underachievers.” Saying “abject failure” of a team that’s averaged 48 wins in the past five seasons, that advanced in 06 and 07… they look dreadful now and a rebuild may be in order. That’s all. That rebuild may be much quicker than you would think -
They still have Parise and Volchenkov and Kovalchuk.
Zajac is not merely “average at best.” He’s good (not great), a solid complementary player. He’s only 25.
Tedenby is 20. Josefson is 19. Vasyunov is 22. Henrique is 20. That’s not so bad as far as young forwards.
They have a number of defenders 25 and under who are rotating into the club, the way we’ve been trying out guys… who’s to say that one or more can’t turn out like A-Mac?
Finding a taker for any of Elias, Langenbruner, Arnott, or Zubrus could get them a quick restart for next season, with Volchenkov, Tallinder, and Greene as veteran blueliners, and the team supplemented by whomever comes back in a deal, plus a free agent (since they’ll have a little space after sending off a couple of the huge contracts).
It’s not any more farfetched than hoping that our prospects take sudden leaps, except that we have a lot more of them right now than New Jersey. But their recent track record is admittedly much better, both in actual play and in developing guys.
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The big thing with the devils is:
A. Will they resign parise at the cost of losing major cap space for other important players(having a more well-rounded team vs keeping their star homegrown fan fav winger)?
B. Who is Brodeur’s longterm replacement? (obviously, Brodeur is just about on his last leg. The kid Frazee looks like crap right now and isn’t the answer. Hedberg isn’t the answer.) And we all know how important a good goalie is to a team’s success.
C. Can they move salary? Obviously this move is needed to resign parise, and possibly even sign free agents while resigning Greene.
All I’m saying is, the Devils don’t look that great right now or in the next couple years. 2nd worst team in the nhl with their only major injury being Parise(I know), an ahl youth core that doesn’t have much promise, Brodeur looks to be clearly aging to his near end, and a number of salary cap and contract issues to answer this offseason and even in the future.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
Of the young forwards, Josefson is the only one who impresses me. They do have some good prospects on defense. They have really no goaltending prospects who are likely to amount to anything.
You are setting up a strawman argument. They have not been abject failures during the regular season. They have done well there. They have been abject failures in the playoffs the last five seasons. It was clear to most folks that this team just didn’t have what it took to really contend for the Cup BEFORE this disaster of a season.
As for the veterans, they have to convince them to accept a trade before they can move them. Elias and Langenbrunner may not want to move. Even if they or Zubrus or Arnott did, there is no guarantee that any contender would want them at their age and with their contracts. The Isles might want Elias, for example, but I cannot imagine him wanting to come here.
The reality is that they will either have to just dump their salaries or keep them. Add to that the almost certainty that Parise’s agent will want a deal comparable to Kovi’s to re-sign and keeping Parise becomes almost an impossibility. Then you have an offense built around a forward who has never been a winner, is vastly overpaid, and is currently trailing Matt Moulson by 3 goals.
Getting one of the top two picks will help jumpstart the rebuild and a trade of Parise to LA for Schenn, Hickey, Bernier, a top six, and picks will move it much further. But it will still be a few years before this team will be a contender.
a strawman?
You’re the one who said “abject playoff failures,” so if this is a strawman, it’s yours. I brought up the regular season because it’s not like these guys are just squeaking into the playoffs by their fingernails on the last day. Those were good teams. Getting to the playoffs repeatedly like that is supposed to be a good thing. When I hear “abject playoff failure” I don’t think of a team that makes it comfortably every time, maybe wins a round, and is then upset by a lower-seed. I think of Atlanta, Columbus, Florida: ZERO combined playoff wins in ten years. You could lump us in there too, considering our post-93 history, though we occasionally win games as an overwhelmed 8th seed.
What the Devils have done is no worse than Washington – do they need a rebuild? They had that losing streak, you know.
THIS season is an abject failure. It’s also not remotely what anyone could have anticipated. Four of the 12 USA Today panelists had the Devils winning their division this year; both TSN and The Hockey News had them fifth in the conference. In your favor, I don’t see any predictions that they would come out of the East and go to the finals, but that has as much to do with the Caps, Penguins, Flyers, and Bruins as it does with New Jersey.
You do make some sense, but you overcome your own good points sometimes…. for example, “Parise to LA for Schenn, Hickey, Bernier, a top six, and picks.” The Kings will NEVER do that, especially if Lou is as hamstrung as you say earlier in the post. Nobody will offer more than they would lose if they signed him to an offer sheet off-season. Either Lou will take three quarters for a dollar, or he’ll keep Parise and move others (Zubrus, Clarkson, Salvador) at a discount. Failing all that, he’ll take the picks for the offer sheet, or just match it, saving him the trouble of negotiating.
Parise is one of the best, young, elite forwards. He’s a great piece to rebuild around. If at all possible I really think Lou will keep him. (This is his cue, of course, to announce a huge blockbuster deal with the Kings five minutes after the roster freeze ends.)
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The Devils are a great regular season team
but are a horrible playoff team. They simply disappear in the playoffs. You can try to spin it anyway you like. Your “good” center Zajac is the perfect example. Good regular season stats, horrible playoff stats. They have repeatedly shown that they cannot get it done when it really counts…in the playoffs. You could say the same about the Islanders in the late 70s and the Sharks for most of their history.
The difference is the Isles got over the hump the other two have not. This Devils team as currently constituted is done as a contender and will not get there. The jury’s still out on the current Sharks team. The Devils need a rebuild. It is hard to see how they do it and keep Parise.
one more note
The strawman IS yours. I called the team an abject playoff failure and you came back at me with what a great regular season team they are. I, of course, had never argued that they have been a bad regular season team…only that, since 2003, they have been an abject playoff failure. Obviously we are not going to agree on whether they are, but you DID make a strawman here. Just been bugging me.
if he really wanted to trade Parise, Lou could get a gaggle of draft picks and a team-controlled budding superstar like Drew Doughty or someone similar.
I wouldn’t trade Doughty straight up for Parise, much less Doughty + a gaggle of picks.
But that’s beside the point. I agree Lou shouldn’t be trading Parise, and the Isles aren’t in position to pay what he would cost to acquire. It’s not a fit.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
I think that the point is at least arguable
It is no doubt a better move for Garth to make a smaller deal like the one that is rumored and hopefully retain a Gagne, a Kopecky, or a Laich…and then simply use his picks. But he does need to do something to help JT.
Lou is in a tough spot. The team obviously needs to be rebuilt and he has a sea of NMCs and NTCs attached to older players some of whom have sizable contracts. Having a top two pick and trading for another plus several promising and inexpensive young players and quality draft picks might convince others to waive their clauses and get a complete rebuild in short order.
In any event, a number of people were agitating about getting ZP and this was an exercise to see what that would look like.
You think that highly of Doughty? He’s very good, but maybe last year was something of a fluke — to wit, he scored 16 goals, but he had one of the highest shooting percentages in the league for a defenseman. This year he’s scoring at less than half the clip.
But, yeah, Doughty is pretty great. God forbid the Isles draft anyone like that.
I think Larsson may be better
and Hamonic’s not too shabby or De Haan either. Come to think of it AMac’s pretty good too. If Garth can make the trade for a veteran linemate, that should free him to draft Larsson and then I would stack our defense up talent-wise with anyone’s.
Big Victor was the first defender of Doughty's class that Garth had a chance to draft
Obviously most Islander fans like the choice he made. Now he may have a chance to draft a guy who has been compared to Ray Bourque. We will see.
What is it that you do not understand?
Garth has had four drafts. In 2007, our top pick wasn’t high enough to get an elite defenseman. In 2008, the elites, including Doughty, were gone by the time Garth stepped up to the podium. In 2009, he could have chosen Big Victor, but went with JT instead. Fowler and Gormley are nice, but I wouldn’t put them in Doughty’s class. Larsson seems to be of the same caliber, maybe even better. Assuming Garth has the top pick, we will see what he does.
I should add
The 2007 pick would not have been early enough if Garth had kept it. Hickey and Alzner were the biggest names on defense in that draft and neither of them are really in Doughty’s class plus they were both picked well before our #15 pick.
I don't read much into D-men's goalscoring totals
I mean, yeah it’s great when they log a lot of goals, but like you noted w/ shooting pct. a lot of that in any given year can be due to the luck of the draw (Streit one year vs. the next…Wiz in October vs. Wiz in the rest of his life).
But I value great D-men over great forwards, and what Doughty has done at age 19 and 20 tells me I’d much much much much much much rather have him than whatever post-op Parise will provide at age 27 and beyond.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
I guess I have always believed that a championship team needs one of each
Getting Larsson would give us the other guy. We’ll see.
Interesting
Although I’m a d-man by trade, I value great goalscorers over d-men as a general proposition.
To narrow my perspective down
I think a great D-man can have a much greater impact on the game day-to-day than a great goalscorer. Parise is a little different (vs. Kovalchuk or Gaborik) because he’s well-rounded (if small…and who knows the pace of his eventual decline), but 25-30-minute two-way D-men are more valuable to me.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
Hnmm
I guess my view is that a great goal scorer / offensive player is more likely to single-handedly take over a game. There is definitely something very steady about a great d-man that is enticing, but ultimately I don’t really believe in the concept of a “shutdown” man. Some offensive players simply cannot be shutdown.
which ones?
Radek has repeatedly shutdown Ovi. I have seen Sid shutdown and Stammer. The dynasty Isles were able to shutdown the Great One and the Oilers were finally able to beat the Isles by shutting down Boss. The 93 Isles won against Pitt by shutting down Lemieux. So who is it that cannot be shut down?
You're a riot
In 19 games against the Isles, Ovechkin has 14 goals and 7 assists. Heck of a job they’re doing shutting him down. I guess that is better than a goal per game.
I can’t seem to find granular data on the ’84 cup finals. I know Gretzky scored at least 2 goals.
To answer your question: yes, guys like Crosby, Ovechkin, (obvi) Gretzky, Mario, etc — they can’t really be shutdown consistently. Best you can do is contain the damage.
they can be shutdown when it counts
Glad you are so easily amused. Look at games where Martinek was playing against the Caps and see what Ovi did then. The Isles WERE able to shut down Gretzky in two playoff series, Lemieux in 93. And all of those guys can and have been shut down in crucial series. It happens all the time. Never been a forward who could not be shut down.
?????!
I’m going to quote JP quoting The Odd Couple -
Felix: Love has made me strong!
Oscar: Strength has made him strong!
How “off his game” could Mario have been with nine points in six games? Or Jagr, who had just turned 21, still scoring three goals and two assists? Or Ron Francis with 4g, 5a, and 9 pts in seven games? Glenn Healy only had an .880 sv% for the series – and without his excellent game seven that goes down to .865.
The Isles won because they got Tom Barrasso off his game – .848 and 4.69 over the final four games, 19 goals on just 125 shots. They didn’t shut down the Pens for any appreciable length of time, just slowed them down, just enough.
known far and wide for stat-fu and irking people
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
by mikb on Dec 20, 2010 3:55 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m afraid numbers and facts aren’t going to be of much use here.
by AP77 on Dec 20, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Mario, Jagr, and Francis had some production
but not what was needed to beat the islanders…and I note that Mr. Numbers and Facts below could only even try to refute one of the examples I gave. Even the best stars—HHOF stars CAN be shut down!!!
even I occasionally have to get actual paid work done
But yes – I rather easily refuted the one example. You want the others?
- Martinek has never shut down Ovi when it counted. The Isles haven’t played any playoff games against Ovechkin’s Caps. Ovi’s numbers against the Isles were already covered by AP77. They are substantial.
- Gretzky vs. Isles in 1981: six games, four goals, six assists.
- Gretzky vs. Isles in 1983: four games, four assists.
- Gretzky vs. Isles in 1984: five games, four goals, two assists.
In sum – it’s really hard to shut down an elite forward. Over a few games, it’s possible, but takes a team effort. It’s why guys are always looking for franchise defenders who can handle 30 minutes a night against elite lines, or guys like Frans Neilsen (MHNBP) and other Selke-quality forwards. Even the Gretzky examples – 8 goals and 12 assists in fifteen total games is “slowed down” rather than “stopped.” And those teams had Potvin, Morrow, Persson, and Langevin! (To say nothing of high-level PK forwards like Anders Kallur and Bob Bourne.)
Saying “shut down in a crucial series” is well and good, but you can’t just point to one series result, and draw that conclusion. Often, if a elite talent IS off, then his team WILL lose, and the series will suddenly LOOK a lot more crucial – it’s a self-selection problem.
known far and wide for stat-fu and irking people
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
Nicely done
Where’d you get that Gretzky data? I couldn’t find anything similar from the finals in those years.
it was tricky
Lots of googling… finally found something called the Hockey Summary Project – essentially it’s Retrosheet for the NHL. They’re trying to compline every boxscore for every NHL game ever played.
Scroll down to the bottom and you can look up, by season and team, any results they currently have compiled.
As you can tell by the URL, it’s Flyers guys who started it, but don’t let that fool you. These guys are on the side of the angels this time.
known far and wide for stat-fu and irking people
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
PS
I almost forgot their requested disclaimer for using the data:
The information used herein was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by The Hockey Summary Project. For more information about the Hockey Summary Project please visit:
http://hsp.flyershistory.com
or
http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/hockey_summary_project/
known far and wide for stat-fu and irking people
Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
You don't call four assists for the greatest scorer in the game shut down?
Especially when it is in the Cup Finals? Then we have different ideas of what shut down means. When the greatest scorer in the game is held without a goal in a four game sweep of a Cup Finals, he HAS been shut down. Refutation refuted. When has Ovi had a big game against Martinek? I thought all games counted. Unless you just mean playoff games,,,and of course Martinek has not been in any of those against Ovi.
well
I call it slowed down. Four assists in four games is still a point per game; that’s still very good. If you have to call a point-per-game “shut down” because it happens to be the weakest of his three series against the Islanders, then I’d say that your re-refuting could be better. =)
It’s not as awesome as Gretz’s usual standard, which is not surprisingly why the Isles won that series. But the other two series? He was terrific when the Oil lost in ‘81 and solid in ’84 when they won. That’s only one out of three series the Isles held him in check – and even then, that “check” was a full point-per-game. THAT is my whole point – not that it’s impossible to shut down an elite player, but that it’s difficult. Over the course of one game, it could mean the player was off, not necessarily that your team did a great job. When I look at the data I find, that’s the conclusion I draw. I don’t think it’s an unreasonable conclusion.
Ovi has been held pointless against the Isles five times; the Caps went 2-3. He had 2 or more points five times, and the Caps won all of those games. Martinek played only two of those five big games. Unfortunately for your position, he also only played two of the five games that Ovi went scoreless in. Conclusion – same as above, it’s HARD to slow these guys down, they can be stopped here and there but not consistently, and it takes a team effort to do it.
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"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
I'd call it being shutdown,
Gretzky averaged ~1goal and 2.5pts/gm that season. Holding him to 1assist/gm is shutting him down.
And a team effort is not always needed. Pronger manhandled and shutdown the Kane Toews Buff line in the stanley cup really well before they were split up, sure his d-partner helped some, but pronger did some shutdown magic there. And the famous Zetterberg shutting down Crosby in the 2009 cup finals we all remember right? 1goal/2assists in 7gms for one of the best offensive forwards in the nhl. Shutting down definitely can be done by a single great player, it’s just that those players don’t come around frequently and are rare.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
Not just shutdown, but 2-way aspect
I think most offensive players can be shutdown at even strength; special teams is a slightly different matter.
But I’d venture great D — men who both shut the door at EV, kill penalties, and key breakouts enough to collect EV points — have a greater impact on a greater number of games than a guy who can pop in 40 goals in a good year. Especially if that forward is cheating to get his goals (Parise isn’t cheating, but again I’d take 21-year-old Doughty over late-20’s Parise without thinking twice, and probably still take Doughty if they were at the same age).
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
Is that so? Wouldn’t Corsi measure that? Do defenders generally have better Corsi numbers? (Honestly don’t know.)
Depends on competition and ice time, really. If you’re good in the Corsi department, more ice time only helps (until you get so much you’re fatigued, etc.).
And if you’re a shutdown defender who chiefly plays against the opposition’s best forwards, your Corsi will probably be lower than your sniping forward teammate if he’s put out against the weaker competition he can take advantage of.
Lighthouse Hockey: No Streit, no Okposo...not that we particularly care.
in addition
Also going with your point, Dom – defenders have a later peak, so if you have D-man X and Forward Z, both at 26, the D-man has a better chance of being an impact player, longer, and then productive thereafter.
Both types of guys are rare: the forward, you usually have to draft yourself, or else obtain to be a complementary player later rather than the workhorse, the way the Isles did it with Butchie.
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Lighthouse Hockey - a beacon of greatness on the rocky coast of sports blog mediocrity
"isn’t it amazingly simple to use the link pop-up?" - JPinVA
We are also forgetting the importance of shutdown forwards.
Zetterberg made Crosby look like a little girl when he was on him in the cup series, Nielsen is very efficient, and what scoring winger would want to be smacked around and followed by a Kesler all game, or even a burish?(right name? might be another b)
And yes, shutdown d-men do make a difference. Who doesn’t think Pronger had a major effect in the playoffs playing forever agains the oppositions best forwards? And might I add, extremely effectively. Undervalued imo. And 2-way makes them even more valuable, Pronger example #1.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
I agree withDom, a good 2 way veteran D in better than a scoring forward
a guy who can score and pass, a guy who can have a + rating all the time
Look at Aucoin, perfect example, here is a guy who can still play 20 minutes, he can QB a PP with good passes and still get a few in the net. He can send a good breakout pass.
I think this team needs a good veteran 2 way player, Streit is the type of guy we need, but with him down we have been missing it
I think tha A-mac and Hamonic can be these type of guys
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Dec 21, 2010 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
A trade for Parise would probably look like:
Garth Snow standing over a bloody Lou Lamorillo with a bunch of baby kittens, a gun, a Dexter style knife set, a blowtorch, Lou’s wife and kids, Jack Hillen and lots of strange drugs to make Lou say and do anything Garth wanted him too. And Gary Bettman would have to be involved and scared so much as to be sworn to secrecy. That might get us Parise, but probably still not enough.
Trade would not happen for three reasons:
1-Tavares and Nino would have to be part of that package if and only if………:
2-Parise has to have a No Trade Clause and the Isles and the Saskatoon Submariners have to be the first two teams he would absolutely refuse to play for.
3-Lou would not trade Parise inside the division. He’d rather see his family and the kittens murdered.
Just remember, their not going to take your crap for their cream……unless your Glen Sather and you have naked pictures of them with a rhinocerous. On the Rangers site, guys are always proposing ridiculous trades like…..3 guys we cut, the worst prospect in the farm system and Todd White for Brad Richards….oh and maybe we get a first rounder too……..doesn’t work like that. Lou may indeed dump salary and get rid of Parise but he will get the highest return for him because of the Kovalsuk debacle.
not saying the trade would work
but a #1 overall pick, Matt Moulson, another quality forward, a blue chip G prospect plus our top two picks next year isn’t crap.
Let me ask you this…….If I was Lou, I’d jump at that offer. Do you think the Isles should mortgage their future for Parise? Your top 2 picks next year are going to be good choices, a #1 and the only guy who may have value not named Tavares in Moulson. As a Ranger fan………I strongly advise against it. Too many young assets for a guy who will come in and score 25 tops without a surrounding cast of support. This is a guy you bring in to bolster the team and make a playoff push. your not even remotely close to being at that level. Stay the course. Three or four years, the youth will blossom. Look at the Rangers, buying players in the 90’s did not lead to success. The last two seasons they have put homegrown youth in the line up and they are building and exciting core or players. Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Staal, Girardi, Stepan, Del Zotto, Gilroy, Boyle, Sauer and even Eminger at 27. they are going to be very good in 2 or 3 years, by that time Krieder, Werek, Grachev, Zuccarello. Valantenkp and Mc D and Mcllrath will be here, they will be very young, fast and exciting. you guys should be there too with some outstanding picks the pasy couple of drafts.
Your top 2 picks next year are going to be good choices, a #1 and the only guy who may have value not named Tavares in Moulson.
WHAT???? You have to be goddamn kidding with this.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Dec 28, 2010 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
Parise doesn't have a no trade clause.
John Tavares=The Franchise, The Future, and still only 20yrs old, SO GIVE HIM SOME F**KING TIME TO MATURE CRITICS! Not everyone is Wayne Gretzky(although Tavares did break some of his records....tee hee)
by OzzyFan on Dec 20, 2010 10:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
A lot of good comments............
But there is no reality hockey yet. Snow is going to do S…t His history demonstrates that if he indeed has access to CW’s cash, he is not spending it. Yes "I will not trade away our future etc,etc, goes just so far. He may have been turned down on the Martin deal and some others, but by his inaction you could say he would rather make an error of ommission than commission. On the other hand if you believe that CW has Garth on very short rations [my view ], than we are all jerking #$% about the coming rental season and the FA season as well. Maybe on second thought with the Isles’ this is unreality hockey?
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
