Revisiting Some Debates: Defense, goaltending, the uncertain future
by Dominik on Jan 4, 2010 2:40 PM EST
in Big Picture Musings
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PrintMaybe it's because of the Islanders off days. Maybe it's because we passed the new year and the half-way point of the season. Maybe it's because a certain #39 has now officially been recalled to the big club after a healthy (second) conditioning stint over the weekend with Bridgeport. Regardless, I feel like there are some early-season topics worth revisiting now.
Consider this an open forum on a variety of topics. I'm a devout believer in the Church of I Am Neither Genius Nor Clairvoyant, so I like to revisit my earlier opinions or beliefs and check how they're panning out -- and to check whether I've changed my mind or "still need more data." I'm curious whether your opinion has changed as well. (And even though I left that sect long ago, followers of the Church of Always Damn Cocksure are encouraged to weigh in with full voice.)
On defensemen present and future, on our pressbox-dwelling shootout experts, on the three-headed goaltending monster, on last summer's top pick and next summer's location news, let's hear how your thinking has changed (or solidified) on these and other topics:
The Defensemen Situation
So, pretty much everyone this side of Garth Snow's office door went into this season thinking the blueline was subpar and/or at least way to vulnerable to injury. Maybe Snow believed that too, but was in three-year, let contracts expire mode. There was pre-season talk around these parts of trading for/signing Anton Babchuk or Adrian Aucoin or Dennis Seidenberg to augment things (caveat: We never truly know whether a free agent would come here).
Naturally, Radek Martinek went down with a season-ending injury, opening some opportunities: I've been pleasantly surprised by Andrew MacDonald. I've had moments of relish with Jack Hillen, but he can't do anything about his small frame, and his pairing with Andy Sutton has sort of reaffirmed his ceiling.
The Islanders also twice had a chance to reclaim Brad Lukowich -- both when he was originally assigned to Austin and this past week when he was recalled by the Canucks. Related to that, the Isles had a chance to claim disgruntled ex-Isle Mathieu Schneider last week. I think he would have goosed the powerplay; he also would have been a 5-on-5 liability (in other words, he'd fit right in!). At the same time, Doug Weight returned -- and the powerplay point is where Weight is most useful at this point.
How I've changed: I always thought the Isles needed another D-man. I was just never really happy with the options. A one-year veteran for depth would've been nice. Aucoin I'd have loved. I originally poo-poo'd Lukowich, the Sharks and Canucks' discards could actually still be the Islanders' gain. Basically, I'm a child here: I want, I want, I want, but I have no brilliant solution. I look forward to a day when (hopefully) Calvin De Haan, Matt Donovan and Travis Hamonic might make this question moot. I cry that Hamonic has just had six weeks of the most important year in his career taken from him because of a last-minute hit in a blowout. Speaking of which...
The Defensmen, Part II
Before this season I was excited about Calvin de Haan, still hopeful about Aaron Ness, and curious about Jyri Niemi. Half-way through this season, I'm excited about Travis Hamonic (though the injury sucks), hopeful about Matt Donovan and de Haan, and curious about Ness and Niemi.
How I've changed: This will change quarterly, for several years, until two of them become legit NHL defensemen. Most will probably say, "Come on, at least two will become legit NHL defensemen!" But the fact is every team's road of dashed hopes is paved with prospect after prospect who looked great for a few months here and there. There are only so many NHL jobs. There are myriad teenagers chasing them, and nearly as many scouts and pundits hyping them.
The Goaltending Situation
We're heeeeeeere. Rick DiPietro practiced with the big club today. The three-headed monster is on the horizon. Scott Gordon and Garth Snow have some decisions to make. Right now it's probably: Dwane Roloson drives and Martin Biron and DP battle over the scraps, at least until one has a dynamite performance. We're still on pace for this situation to be pretty clear by the Olympic break, which ends right before the NHL trade deadline.
How I've changed: I always figured the DiPIetro situation wouldn't come to a head until December or January. But in September, I fully expected Biron to have a nice enough season for someone to want to acquire the starter's pimp juice he has on his resume. I didn't think the issue would be that he hasn't gotten enough starts nor wins to be attractive to someone; I've no insider knowledge of the trade market, but that's how an educated guess would go now. Drat.
Jeff Tambellini, Meet Rob Schremp
When Rob Schremp arrived I thought it was a worthy experiment. The guy's still youngish, he clearly has some rare skill, so give him a new start and see if it works out. I also thought it spelled bad news for Jeff Tambellini, and I think that's true: Though Tamby is a wing and Scott Gordon has decided Schremp can only work at center, with Josh Bailey's move to the wing and Doug Weight's deployment at wherever, it's clear Tamby falls down the depth chart.
I'm of two minds on Tambellini: He's certainly improved and I don't like scratching him for such long spells. At the same time, the Islanders have given him multiple chances and when he goes through a handful of uninspiring games I don't mind him hitting the press box. That said, his presence has rarely made the Islanders less likely to win, particularly when you consider this team's love of overtime and the shootout.
How I've changed: Haven't really. Tambellini is always an enigma for me, and Schremp is still in an evaluation period for me. Schremp has clearly gotten a greater chance this year (and produced less), but that's because the Islanders have more to learn about whether he is a fit -- in other words, they've gotten to know Tambellini quite well. Ultimately, it's no stretch to doubt either will still be Islanders when the team is a legit playoff team.
The Playoff Bubble, or Rebuild (don't call it a rebuild!) Year II
I never expected this team to make the playoffs. I did hope -- for entertainment and player development's sake -- they would hang in the picture for half a season. They've done more than that, partly thanks to the Eastern Conference's craptastic nature, which has kept a lot of teams not named after weather phenomena within a winning streak of eight place.
How I've changed: Haven't really -- except that the proximity to eighth place has made me live and die with each game far more than I expected to, even though I still believe a finish closer to the top pick than to the last playoff spot is better for the franchise. Of course, given the way the East is shaping up, a finish close to eighth place can be close to the top pick.
The Uncertain Future, Part I: Tavares vs. Hedman vs. Duchene
You just don't know the deal on any draft pick until a few years into his career. Even the #1 overall. I was sympathetic to the "build with a franchise defenseman" theory and actually mulled it for much of last season. In the end, I thought Tavares' talent was a surer bet for the franchise now, and in the future. All the top three picks look like great talents, but that's about all we know so far.
How I've changed: In truth, I was pleasantly surprised by Tavares's hot start, and expected more dry spells like the current one to come earlier. Obviously I don't have high expectations for 18- and 19-year olds, no matter the buckets of Pierre McGuire saliva spilled over them.
The Uncertain Future, Part II: Lighthouse Project (or: Where the hell we gonna play?)
I am no more clearer about the fate of the Lighthouse Project today than I was a year ago, when Charles Wang first unleashed the PR machine to publicly pressure Kate Murray and the Town of Hempstead powers that be. That gambit was worth a shot, but Murray's party has kept control and now Wang is back into don't-do-it-through-the-press mode.
How I've changed: From the Kansas City call which I knew was unrealistic from Day 1 to the Saskatoon training camp announcement, I've always believed the most likely home for the Islanders would continue to be in the New York area. I'm less confident in the Lighthouse Project's chances than I once was, but every alternative is messy: The ones that keep the club in the area are ultimately less messy than the ones that would remove the Isles from such a deep media/TV market.
* * *
So that's a lot of topics, but how have you changed on any of them? Or stuck to your guns? Defense, prospects, the #1 pick, goaltending, the future -- or any other topic that I didn't list: What have you learned in the last 40-some games and 3-4 months?
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I think a nice addition to this would be Snow and the draft.
However, it is really hard to think that Snow doesn’t have a plan for the defense other than drafting and waiting. He has made his public announcement regarding the open checkbook so you can only think that was said for possible tradeline suitors but mostly intended for the FA period. I would love to guess as to who would be interested in coming to a team that has no idea where it will play 5 seasons from now let alone next year but the truth is that Snow will probably take what he can get in the FA period. It will be fun to see where Snow’s cutoff will be for size vs skill to fit in on this team. It is possible that this could be one of the most critical/memorable offseasons in Islander history.
Would it be wrong to roll out the RED carpet for Kirill Petrov's arrival to the New York Islanders?
I would love to guess as to who would be interested in coming to a team that has no idea where it will play 5 season
LOL. Good point. Certainly limits their options for long-term deals; there are only so many guys like Streit who have (had) something to prove yet can command a hefty deal. Really underlines how it would be nice to have arena clarity by July 1.
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
Tambi & Schremp
While I would love to see both of these guys be part of our future as they are both exciting to watch and potential game breakers but I can’t see Tambellini wanting to come back to this team. He signed a two year one-way deal thinking he would get consistant ice time and a chance to develop in these important year but has instead been relegated to the press box to watch Jon Sim and Richard Park fizzle out the last year or two of their careers. Seeing now that he has had some success in games and had a chance to show other teams what he has. Im just dreading the day that the Devils sign him and he becomes another key piece to their next championship run. Im sure his dad could convince the ownership over in Edmonton to give a hard-working great skating skill player a chance to bloom. If he ends up with the Rangers though i might blow up the colliseum…
So against my biggest wishes I dont expect Jeff Tambellini to be back. Robbie Schremp however is being given the opportunity to blossom and getting the ice-time he never recieved in Edmonton. Even though he elledgedly grew up a Ranger fan I think a team showing faith in you and rescuing you from the press box would lead him to stick around as long as we keep giving him the opportunities and maybe him and JT or KO develop some great chemistry.
future?
i totally agree on the season that its ultimately better to get a high pick (taylor hall PLEASE) ,I dont think there is much of a goalie issue,rollo is #1 with biron being traded thbe moment someone is confident that 39 can stay healthy(dont bet the farm). Tavares has disappointed me not in terms of production,after all he is 19,but in terms of style of play. I thought he was amuch more dynamic player than what i have seen even on his good nights! also the rap on his lack of speed looks to be true,how many times already have we seen him on a maybe breakaway only to see a dman catch up without him taking a shot?! his speed reminds me of guerin. im a firm believer that players in all sports play for who offers the most $ unless proven otherwise. LI is popular among celebs,and they probably will be in NY tv market even if they move as you said. we need help on d badly but if they had top winger i think that would help everybody more. feel free to kill me
by Lakewood Islander on Jan 4, 2010 5:01 PM EST via mobile reply actions
feel free to kill me
{gets knives out} :)
I suppose it depends on what you mean by “top winger.” Even though the blueline is so weak, a true top winger would help more than any of those depth/one-dimensional defensemen I mentioned. But I’d be thinking of more than just a Alex Tanguay (at least this year’s version) or Afinogenov. Either of those would have helped, surely, but they’re more dependent on good linemates and pampered work conditions than, say, a Kyle Okposo or Gagne.
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
agree
for example if we had a kovalchuk on the wing playing up at the same time witt is playing d you wouldnt notice how horrible witt is because most of the play will be in the offensive end during his shift…. and for the record i would trade anyone including tavares for kovalchuk if we could get him to extend his deal
Kovalchuk pretty much sucks at D though – so when it wasn’t in the offensive zone, you’d be screwed.
LOL
That’s exactly what I was thinking. Put Kovalchuk up there and suddenly Witt is playing more 4 on 5!
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
Agree on Tambellini
Schremp is 2 yrs younger than Tambellini which is a big difference. Anyway I don’t understand the point of having him here if he’s not going to play. You mentioned Sim and Park playing ahead of him. What about Nate Thompson and Tim Jackman. Those two are in the lineup almost every game. If they give him a regular shift, sure he’d want to stay but how could he possibly not have the feeling that someone upstairs just doesn’t like him. I don’t think his lack of ice time is justified by his play. He’s been pretty good. He has to feel hopeless about his future in LI at this point.
And ironically, while his playing time may affect whether he wants to stay, it’s also surely diminishing the NHL offers he might receive in the summer.
For what it’s worth, I’ve read a few times that he really loves being an Islander. Of course, I don’t recall reading it since his most recent stint in the press box.
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
Maybe Tambi could be a dentist! But in seriousness, it’s no shocker that I like him. I like the effort he’s put forth so far, and the 15.x shot % is a nice stat (given last year’s team couldn’t get above 11..) In some ways, I think we should have to evaluate the leadership (such as Gordon) as much as the players themselves, to see how they’ve “evolved” over the course of the season or perhaps several years. I’m still in the wait and see and breathe mode. The Isles are about where I expected at the outset of the year, and Tavares is producing at about the right clip. The blueline is frustrating, and for as big of a homer as I am on Bruno, stagnant would not be a word unfair to reference him by lately, sadly. I guess it could be worse though, that whole Randy Jones contract for 18 or so games so far huh…? I think if for nothing else, the “system” is jogging the guys together, less turnover can translate into more adhesion/cohesion amongst the players, and that’s a plus I’ll take out of it for now.
Maybe I’m just not on the same wavelength as the brass but I thought the point was to try to make Tambellini at top 3 liner, getting a regular shift for 75 games/yr and hoping he becomes a 25 – 30 goal/50-70pt player. Maybe they just see him as a part time player. That’s how they act.
by TMS on Jan 4, 2010 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
I had that impression too — figured that was the point of signing him to the one-way deal. I wonder if either Gordon and Snow don’t agree on him, or they made a decision late last year/early this year that he’s not top six any more except in a pinch.
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
Some Points/Concerns/Musings
Schremp needs to learn how to score at even-strength one day and scoring a powerplay goal once every 31 minutes isn’t good enough (Tambi scores once every 9 minutes on the powerplay)
Schneider with 14 shots on goal as an offensive defenseman is really low. Still glad the Isles didn’t grab him.
The Tavares, Duchene, Hedman argument is still far from clear – Duchene has more points per 60 minutes but Tavares plays against (and with) better players than Duchene
Schremp needs to learn how to score at even-strength one day and scoring a powerplay goal once every 31 minutes isn’t good enough
Agreed. I’m willing to cut him slack for the PP rate since the whole unit has not performed. But at even strength, that’s always been his wrap and I’m not holding out much hope for it to change. But since this team isn’t exactly stacked with EV scorers, I don’t mind giving him a shot.
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
This team isn’t exactly stacked with EV scorers
Yeah, Moulson leads the team and is tied for 69th in league as far as even strength points with 19, then its Nielsen with 15.
Even though Streit is arguably having a less amazing year than last – look at his even strength points – last year he had 25 ESP v 29 PPP’s (v 11 PPP’s for the rest of the Isles D combined), this year its 15 ESP v 6 PPP’s (sadly this is still double the rest of the Isles D combined on the powerplay).
Granted, this is about a 10 point decline in his point total if forecast over the season, considering the powerplay is one of the bright spots at the moment (with most of Tavares and Okposo’s points coming from there), I’d be very happy with this change in Streit’s point production.
Good point. I was worried about his PP drop-off, but looking at it that way it’s nice to see EV production. Man, imagine if he had two solid scoring lines to give outlets and back-door passes to?
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
prospects/defense
you can tell how bad/raw our system is if we keep trotting out the likes of bruno gervais every night for significant minutes! i dont think we could get even a 6th rd choice for him. im sick of drafting Bodies,we need to package picks to move up and pick/trade for elite players. im fuming that Dehaan apoarently is at least 3 years from contributing. bailey is much improved,but im not convinced he can potentially play as a top 6 forward.
by Lakewood Islander on Jan 4, 2010 10:12 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Two years ago, the cupboard was bare and they needed to draft bodies (and so far, the haul looks worthwhile). Last year, they did package and trade up, so … well, this is a long, long process that requires patience.
I understand frustrations that we’ve had to be patient for basically the last 15 years, but I take the view that Snow had to start at Square One, and Gordon had to start at Square -1, being hired so late in the summer and when the entire roster was being shocked. (He inherited a lot of vets who never signed up for a rebuild.)
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
nyi mvp?
the eastern conference is so pitiful that we are being conned into believing this team much improved based on being competitive. but i ask ,who exactly are they competing with? Rollo is clearly the biggest difference.Honorable mention for Franz Nielson who is proving to be a vital 2 way player for the forseeable future. (wht happened to him on faceoffs,though?)
by Lakewood Islander on Jan 4, 2010 10:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions
How many years did the Southeast winner get the 3rd seed in the playoffs despite barely being worthy of a 7th or 8th seed? Its not about how much you’ve improved sometimes, its about how much you’ve improved in comparison to your conference. If the Islanders are getting better because the Flyers and Rangers made bad moves, that’s on them. Same with other teams that have made some questionable offseason moves. Meanwhile Snow continues to make smart moves (Tavares, Moulson, Roloson) and improving the team.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
Thanks, TMC
(Removing a spam also removes the replies to it, so I just wanted to leave my thanks for policing.)
Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
