Will the Islanders hang near the bubble? And what if they don't?
by Dominik on Jan 27, 2010 6:24 PM EST
in This, That & What-Not
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PrintAs has been the case since Scott Gordon arrived, the Islanders' 5-on-5 results remain near the bottom of the league. Their .83 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio per game ranks 26th, ahead of only Edmonton, Carolina, Montreal and Columbus.
(I should note, their ratio has improved steadily since the unfathomable sub-.50 depths of December 2008, the injury-ravaged low point of Gordon's young reign. But then I should also note their special teams today each remain in the bottom five, at 75.1% and 16.1%.)
Goal differential, particularly at 5-on-5, is one of those stupidly simple ways to get a quick read on a team. Sure, your paycheck is signed with your win-loss record, period. But sometimes luck gives you a misleading string of more wins (or more losses) while goal differential hints that a dose of reality is looming in the long term.
The trouble with gauging a young team like the Islanders is three of their best players are 21 or younger, so as they get better the team gets better, but improvement at this age comes in stops (John Tavares) and starts (Josh Bailey).
Last night's no-show aside, the Islanders think they're playing better. Most of us agree they're playing better. Their 10-5-1 record since Dec. 23 says they're playing better (though it includes five shootout wins). But, I mean, do we think they'll continue to play better?
The Islanders total goal differential (in all situations, excluding shootouts) stands at minus-24, which is better than only Toronto, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Edmonton and Columbus. With rankings like that plus their special teams and 5-on-5 figures, are the Islanders just the 25th best team in the NHL? Did they fool some with the last month's hot streak? Or has their form since Christmas been a sign of a team getting better, and their season-long totals are weighed down by early-season troubles?
Lopsided games can skew the goal differential thing. You might be tempted to throw out last night's blowout, and then the differential drops to minus-19. But throw out the blowout of Detroit, and it's back up to minus-25.
What are you going on about?
I guess I'm curious as to where their "norm" is. With a team that's theoretically progressing and learning all the time, that's hard to peg, because tomorrow should be better than today, just as January has been better than December. (With a team that has just lost Jack Hillen for 6-8 weeks, that gets even harder to guess.)
So with that goal differential thing in mind, here's a look at three versions of the Islanders: The one that existed before this hot streak, the one that existed during this hot streak, and the one that stands as a season-long depiction.
| GP | W-L-O | GF | GA | Dif. | G.Dif/GP | |
| Before Dec. 23 | 37 | 13-17-7 | 88 | 116 | -28 | -.76 |
| Btw. Dec. 23 - Jan. 27 | 16 | 10-5-1 | 47 | 43 | +4 | +.25 |
| Total as of Jan. 27 | 53 | 23-22-8 | 135 | 159 | -24 | -.45 |
My guess? As many have suggested for much of this season, this is probably a (NHL shootout-aided) quasi-.500 team. A point per game team or a little better -- good enough to be in the playoff conversation, but likely to be at least a Dubielewicz Miracle away from squeaking in. The record today is probably similar to the record we'll see come April 12.
Remember that the team before Dec. 23 had lost seven of nine, including two blowouts. But before that it was as five-hundred-iffic as it is today; they may have been due for a rebound back toward ".500" in December. I don't think they're bad enough to average .76 goals per game less than the opposition. But I don't think they're good enough to outscore the opposition for the rest of the year, either. They're probably good enough to tease us with hot streaks, deflate us with let-downs, and -- hopefully, Gordon willing -- impress us with relentless work more often than not.
So should they hang around the watered-down Eastern playoff bubble for the rest of the year, they'll give us a good show while crushing the dreams of those who desire the highest possible draft pick. They'd also probably convince us that they're as competitive as their record looked before last night.
But while I understand the "greater good" desires of those who hope, through one way or another, that they miss the playoffs and miss them badly, there's only one acceptable scenario for that: Injuries and/or trade deadline dumps. Because if the Islanders collapse and it doesn't happen through one of those "not-an-excuse but truly-a-good-excuse-actually" routes, then we'll have bigger questions to ask about the coach and/or the players as to why they couldn't at least keep up what they've done thus far.
In the mean time, I'll enjoy the bubble ride while it lasts. 'Cause you never know: This road trip could pump it up a bit, or give it a good pop.
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Exactly.
Once again, we are still in the rebuild stage (Championship ETA 2011-2012 Season), so even a drop off here while Hillen is injured wouldn’t be too harmful in the long run. It might even lead to better prospects (I’d like another drafted D man, considering the health issues of Hillen, De Haan, and Hamonic).
Sutton, Witt and Martinek to add a few.
Is suggesting that we go for a draft pick instead of getting humiliated in the first round of the playoffs defeatist?
Lets look at how things really are. Taveras hasn’t done anything since mid December. Pushing him isn’t going to work. Suggesting that he go on a vacation during the Olympics couldn’t be a bad idea.
Bergenheim is trying, but hasn’t been himself since he got injured.
Okposo looks frustrated sometimes. I might push him harder.
Sometimes I wonder why the Isles signed Hunter for 5 years. He has a hard shot, and works well in the corners, but he can’t get to 20 goals? Come on.
Overall, our team of rookies and sophomores need time. Another year playing together couldn’t hurt. Right now, the best news is that DP is back and Roli has to perform to earn back to back games.
Our defense is a disgrace. Witt, Bruno and Freddy, oh my…! Bruno is a sophomore, so we can let him slide. The others are veterans. No more excuses.
I am very sorry to see Hillen will be out 4-6 weeks. Look for a bright future in Hillen and others….
As Always, til I die…
Lets Go Islanders!!!!
I’m not suggesting we’re tanking. Incidentally, Radek Martinek, though i’ve liked him for his tenure, has no future with this team. He doesn’t fit in.
Andy Sutton does, so we better resign him.
Hunter will be fine. Bergie HAS been fine, drawing penalties, doing fine on D, making the 4th line better.
Okposo is playing incredibly and the best of anyone. Don’t push him really.
We’ll be in the playoffs next year regardless. I’d like to make the playoffs this year, but i wont’ be disappointed if we don’t.
To Put things in perspective
Last year we had 26 wins all year.
This year we already have 23 wins.
The best Islanders turn around from season to season was 21 wins in 2000-01 to 42 wins in 2001-2002 for +21, and that team was the team of Milbury’s mercenaries. The second best turn around was +14 which to match we would need 17 more wins. I think its within reach, and just for the curious, the +14 year was 74-75.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
Sykora sent to Minors
NHL.com story Sykora’s been sent to the minors. I mentioned him arguing with the Wild a few weeks ago. He’s not expected to report. He’s going to be a UFA, and is expected to go to the KHL for big money next season. I don’t think he’s a bad pickup for a possible run. Ignore his season this year, if you check his game log he’s barely been on the ice.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
I think if any team had any real interest in him, they would have claimed him on waivers earlier in the week since it wouldn’t cost the team any players or picks and Minny would be eating half of his salary.
To fight the horde, sing and cry: Valhalla I am coming!
by David Hanssen on Jan 27, 2010 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Did he hit waivers? I didn’t see that anywhere. He only has 14 games this season.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
He had to clear waivers to be sent to the AHL. Here’s the TSN story. Here’s a good description of the waivers process in the current CBA.
To fight the horde, sing and cry: Valhalla I am coming!
by David Hanssen on Jan 27, 2010 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
Also, he will have to go through reentry waivers if/when he gets called back up.
To fight the horde, sing and cry: Valhalla I am coming!
by David Hanssen on Jan 27, 2010 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
They mutually agreed to terminate the contract
How that’s legal, I don’t know. But now he’s about to be a free agent.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
actually, apart from the second period on Sat night
we have had two stinkers in a row. If I am Garth, I need this team to get back to winning in a hurry…take at least 6 of the next 10 and maybe a loser point or two. Otherwise I look for what draft picks I can get at the deadline.
As I see it, the only way this team is a playoff team this year is if JT gets his groove back…real soon!!!
it's not looking good right now and the Hillen loss isn't making it easier
I asked you before what you want to trade and no answer. Frankly I don’t see much the Isles have much to offer in any trade that a contender would want, maybe Weight but he seems over the hill at this point. Sutton would be the only one I would think but I really believe it would be wise to re-sign him. No they are not getting rid of Roloson since he has a team friendly contract for next year.
I have made several comments on the Mueller post
Any GM with a brain will see that Weight has made this offense function MUCH better esp on the PP since he has returned. He, Sutton, Sim, and Biron would all be tradeable assets…if Garth goes that way.
Warms the heart, it does
It’s just good to see the AP77 Signal still works — I was worried I had to change the bulb.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
You think we have problems
Habs and Rags teams that spend money look like crap tonight. Looks like Isles will be in 13th place after tonight but only one point out of a playoff spot. This four game road trip will be quite telling.
Well Isles will be in 13th place after tonight
One point out of 6th place. Have you all in your years of watching sports seen anything like this? Big game vs Canes in Carolina tomorrow night.
2002 AFC
Going into the last weekend of the season only three teams were eliminated.
To fight the horde, sing and cry: Valhalla I am coming!
by David Hanssen on Jan 27, 2010 9:26 PM EST up reply actions
That’s interesting but only 16 games in a football season. The math here is more remarkable in that you have 8 teams within one point of each other after playing over 50 games. This leads to the arguement that it seems unlikely we’ll have the 8th place team reach 90 points will is going to question whether teams are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline the Eastern Conference. This trade deadline could be a real snoozer.
As I mentioned briefly last night the hockey gods have been trying their hardest to give us 98% of results when we’ve been idle in our favor— every team around us has been losing, to good teams well never catch, teams out west and the teams below us! It’s right there for them. I don’t know how long they can count on the gods to wear orange and blue.
Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.
by LaChance at Glory on Jan 27, 2010 10:13 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Well tomorrow is another night to see what this team is made of. At the very least I’m interested in watching Kohn. Last year Isles had a opening for Hillen and he took advantage of it same with MacDonald earlier this season. Now Kohn who has been in the system gets a chance. Funny thing about tomorrow’s game is if Isles win the worst they can be is in 7th place after the night is over.
Nate Thompson
I didn’t see anything, but Nate Thompson has had a good start with Tampa, it seems.
Against Atlanta (2-1 shootout win): 13:59 TOI (4:46 SH, most by a forward, no shorthanded goal allowed), +/- 0, 2 shots, 2 PIM, 8 for 11 faceoffs.
Against Montreal (3-0): 13:19 TOT (2:42 SH, most by a forward), +/- 0, 2 shots, 4 for 7 faceoffs.
They must have been really impressed by his only goal of the year, against them. :) Best of luck to him, in any case.*
(*offer not valid on February 4th or 13th)
Thompson sure better read that fine print.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
I Predict
The Islanders will finish the season with 86 points.
Will that be enough points to make the playoffs this season?
I have no idea.
But I will say this- if they do finish the season with 86 points, they should be very proud of themselves.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
This next game will be crucial
Anybody see the Cane-Ranger game? Don’t know when I have seen the booshirts so totally humiliated. Players like Callahan and Roszival were taking deliberate and obvious penalties. There were probably less than 1000 people left in the Garden at the end and they were a;; booing.
Anyway, point is that this Canes team is a very different one than the one we played earlier in the season. They are going to be VERY TOUGH and we have to win both games if we are to have ANY chance at the playoffs. I figure we need to win at least six games before the break. Win both games against the Canes, the game against the Cats, split the two against the Bolts, beat the Preds, and the Flyers… and we go into the break with a shot at the playoffs. Anything less and I think Garth needs to get ready for the draft.
Booed off after every period
What a mess. Saw Redden rode the pine again after his gaffe.
What’s this I feel?…Tears? Ah, just dust in the eye. (Actually, as much as I like Ranger misery, I prefer they have just enough sprinkles of average hope to keep their management team in place.)
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
the Canes are starting to look like they did in the last half of last year
They won’t make the playoffs, but they will likely pass Toronto and any other teams that might slump in the second half. They will be very dangerous and these two games are a key to our season.
I totally agree, the Canes looks to be winding up as THE spoilers this season and if the Isles get nothing out of playing them, their playoff chances diminish significantly.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 28, 2010 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
The most confusing team in the league
I still don’t understand what, or how, they did in last year’s second half. But then that franchise has always been bipolar.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
well part of it is not hard to explain
they have their guys back healthy again. The other part is more of an intangible. There’s a piece in SI about Rutherford’s making Staal the captain and the effect that has had on the room. They are already just three points behind Toronto and seem sure to pass them. Any team in the pack that slumps will get passed by them as well…and who knows? They just might work their way into contention. We need to win both games against them because we need points AND because we don’t want to be one of the teams that they pass.
What I’m saying is their extremes are amazing. I never believed they were as bad as this year (though I know injuries helped — but even before Ward was hurt), and I never believed they were as good as their playoff run last year. Even Staal, quite hot since getting the “C,” is a streaky player.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
well one of the things that was remarkable about the dynasty Islanders
was that they had this amazing ability to flip a switch and turn on the afterburners around this time of year and keep it going right up until the ritual Cup parade.
That was an amazing thing about the dynasty (something I assume was a product of the immense concentration of talent in NYI and MTL in those days). But “flipping the switch” certainly isn’t what the Canes are doing.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
I think it had more to do with losing to the Rangers the year before
with President’s Trophy in hand. That ate at them. After that, they focused on the second season. I think the Canes thing may be a little like flipping a switch.
It’d be some serious sleeping at the switch if you wait until you are essentially eliminated before flipping it on.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
more applicable last year I admit
this year it was complicated by an unbelievable cascade of injuries and exacerbated by Rutherford’s bonehead decision to gut his PP.
They just might work their way into contention.
That is asking a LOT.
Where the Canes are sitting right now, if they win 20 of their remaining thirty games they will STILL have less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 28, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
depends on what the rest of the field does
if enough of the teams above them get hot, I agree there is no chance. But if a bunch of them slump, who knows? Not saying it will happen…just…who knows?
Mathematically, that is their chances if they go, say, 20-7-3 in their last 30 games. That 5% chance of them making the playoffs takes into consideration what everyone else could possibly do. The thing is, the teams in front of the Canes play each other most of the time- and that means 2 or three points to teams ahead of the canes, no matter who is slumping.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 28, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
The trouble is...
…that 10-5-1 with five shootout wins is really just 5-5-6.
And 23-22-8 is really just 17-25-11 in actual hockey terms. 54 points drops to 45. By this measure the Isles are no longer tied for tenth, only one win out of sixth; they’re a solid 13th with only Atlanta and Boston within one point. That looks more in keeping with the 5-on-5 goal numbers, and that makes sense – shootout goals don’t count in this metric, so it’s essentially free points for a skills competition, and not based realistically on the strength of the squad.
They’re definitely on the right track now, but as Sports Guy likes to say, let’s not break out the popsicles just yet.
But they're not feasting on shootouts
They’re 6-5 in shootouts, which is appropriately crapshooty. The majority of teams are around .500 in the shootout, with Tampa Bay (2-6) the only major Eastern bubble exception. So I agree the shootout flatters their record, but it’s flattering everyone right now, all playing by the same rules.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
In this case, it's not just the percentage
When adjusting the record to pre-pity-point levels, a SO loss doesn’t matter – it’s the same point each time. The SO wins move from the W to the T column; the OT losses move from T to L. Tampa’s 2-6 SO record is actually flattering to them by that measure, because those six losses wouldn’t be losses anyway, and they’re only scraping two bonus points. They also have four OTL, though, so that adjusts them down.
The Isles have nine bonus points, basically an extra four and a half wins from nowhere. Vancouver has the least – two SO wins and no OTL. Even though everyone plays by the same rules, it’s not a fair rule, and it affects teams unequally. And as an Isles fan, I have an additional dislike for this, because we’re artificially in a playoff race we have no business being near. A more accurate measure of the team would have them in the draft lottery with a shot at the Hall/Seguin/Fowler sweepstakes. (The Halsefowl Watch?)
Toronto, incidentally, has EIGHT OT losses and only one SO win. Their “true record” should be 16-35-3. Heheheheheheh.
OK, I follow
It’s probably clear I loathe the shootout. But in this instance, I’m not differentiating between OT and SO because for this season (and sadly, for the foreseeable future), the effect is the same. And while the hockey played is quite different, it appears teams are increasingly playing to get to the OT, or SO if necessary, and take their chances.
The pity point or bonus point, or however it’s called, bothers me as a concept, but to me the “loser” point is still a legit point: Two teams tied and split the spoils, full stop. Then the NHL added more. So for this I’m mainly interested in guarding against whether a team has been inflated by too many OT/SO coin-flips going their way. Even an OT win is, while much nicer than a SO, still compromised by no fear of consequences. For my money, introduce 10-minute OT and either switch to a 3-point system or remove the consolation point entirely.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
how about a little self interest
the Isles have perhaps the best team of SO shooters in the NHL. Add Nino to the mix and they might be far and away the best. Teams may start taking all manner of chances in OT to avoid a SO with us. Just a thought.
It is possible
At the moment, they still look good (though Tambellini is part of that, and not playing). But over time we’ll see if Frans and Schremp keep it up. Pretty sure Nino, wherever he ends up, won’t be allowed to throw his glove at the goalie.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
Guess it was more the one handed aspect that makes me think he would be especially good at it
and Matt is starting to look like a natural as well.
that phrase sums it all up
Even an OT win is, while much nicer than a SO, still compromised by no fear of consequences.
Excellent point.
For my money, introduce 10-minute OT and either switch to a 3-point system or remove the consolation point entirely.
Agreed.
better than we have been
the forwards look good most nights, we look very good once in awhile and look not so good once in awhile. I believe we have the right core of players, and once they are a little more mature, and conditioned to last a full season, we will be a top team in the league.
Finding someone who is big and can score is what we need now, but there arent a lot of these just hanging around, a young Bertuzzi type.
our D is mediocre, we have a nice start with Sutton and Hillen, Gervais is ok also. Meyer & Witt can both go as far as I am concerned. I think McDonald is worth keeping, he looks to have a good sense and with a season of maturity may become a top guy. Th efuture is with Caan and Harmonic here.
Goal- Ricky can really be a great goalie if he can stay healthy. I like the way he has stayed in the net a little more since his return and I think this could be a good thing. I also like the way he can help start the puck back during the PP. We have a few young goalies from the last draft so we should be good for awhile here
Not a day goes by without this non-Islander's name mentioned...
Isn’t he only 6’0", 202 lbs.? Unless he’s grown more and put on weight, that’s not very big anymore.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
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Islanders Schedule
Next 5 Games
Florida
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Sun 02/12 | 3:00 PM EST |
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@
Winnipeg
|
Tue 02/14 | 8:30 PM EST |
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@
St. Louis
|
Thu 02/16 | 8:00 PM EST |
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Carolina
|
Sat 02/18 | 7:00 PM EST |
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Ottawa
|
Mon 02/20 | 1:00 PM EST |
Last 5 Games
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Los Angeles
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Sat 02/11 | OT - W 2 - 1 |
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Montreal
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Thu 02/09 | L 2 - 4 |
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@
Philadelphia
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Tue 02/07 | SO - W 1 - 0 |
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Buffalo
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Sat 02/04 | SO - L 3 - 4 |
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@
Ottawa
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Fri 02/03 | OT - W 2 - 1 |
Atlantic Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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New York Rangers
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52 | 34 | 13 | 5 | 73 |
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Philadelphia
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54 | 31 | 16 | 7 | 69 |
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New Jersey
|
54 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 66 |
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Pittsburgh
|
54 | 30 | 19 | 5 | 65 |
|
New York Islanders
|
53 | 22 | 23 | 8 | 52 |
(updated 2.11.2012 at 8:02 AM EST)
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