The Math for 70
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 23, 2010 10:38 PM EST
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Buyers or Sellers Will We Be?
It has been my view that the Isles have to have 70 points at the Olympic break to be in good position for a playoff run. Not getting points out of tonight's game and the Pittsburgh contest hurt, but it is still doable.
These next four are the key. The Caps are always going to be tough, but we have played well against them. The Canes and the Cats less Nathan Horton are both beatable teams. Philly will be the tough nut of the four, but we will need to be able to beat them if we are going to make the playoffs anyway.
If we get those eight points, we are halfway there. If we win the remaining game against the Canes, beat the Preds, take one of the two games against the Bolts, and beat either the Sens or the Pens, we are there.
Getting Andy Sutton back should help as should continued solid goaltending from Dwayne Roloson and Rick DiPietro. What we really need, though, is for John Tavares to start lighting the lamp again. It should be interesting.
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So, 10 games left before the break, the Isles are at 54 pts. after 52 games played. To reach 70 before the break, they’d have to go 8-2, which means being even better than the run they’re on now (7-3 in their last 10). But I don’t think that’s a make-or-break number, and I can’t see Snow deciding to cut bait in early March just because his team is a win or two short.
After the break, 20 games left. No matter what they have to fetch more than a point per game the rest of the way. Today it looks like 8 teams fighting for three slots (the 6-8 seeds), as these teams all have between 52 and 55 pts.: PHI, NYR, MON, NYI, TB, ATL, FLA, BOS. To me that says the winners will grab something like 40 points over their final 30 games.
Philly will be the tough nut of the four, but we will need to be able to beat them if we are going to make the playoffs anyway.
Definitely, the Isles can’t hope to squeak into the playoffs while a divisional rival is running the table on them. In fact, the last two seasons Philly wouldn’t have made the playoffs without their dominant record over the Isles.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
by Dominik on Jan 24, 2010 3:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
PUT IT THIS WAY
at 70 points, they are a solid contender. At 65, they are marginal. Anything less, Garth probably has to think about selling and certainly isn’t buying. Of course, exactly what formula, if any, he has for this is a mystery know only to the inner circle of Isles management.
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 24, 2010 4:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In fact, the last two seasons Philly wouldn’t have made the playoffs without their dominant record over the Isles.
That is so annoyingly true. :(
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 24, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Not well thought out
Just a shoot from the hip comment imo. 85 points could get you a playoff spot at the end of the season so 70 points is little too much to expect right now.
by rickrays on Jan 24, 2010 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If all eight bubble teams kept playing so incredibly average, maybe high 80s would do it. But since the lockout the minimum in either conference has been 91 points and often higher. I’m thinking a few teams will catch fire and claim the last three spots (and I’m not ruling out Ottawa in that bubble, either, but right now they’re a little ahead of this congested pack).
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
by Dominik on Jan 24, 2010 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If they keep playing the way they have recently
it isn’t. In any event, the teams that get to the playoffs and go places when there are the teams that start winning at a .600 clip or better right about now. If they win at that clip, they should be at or close to 70 and Garth may have the confidence not to sell or even to buy. If not, he may be selling and certainly isn’t buying.
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 24, 2010 4:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think the number of points really matters right now
the reality is that more teams are going to take this team seriously as the season gets to the stretch. They are going to face fewer backup goaltenders and no team is going to take a night off againt them. Thus far we’ve seen a lot of teams kinda come in lay expecting an easy two points.
We could have 70 by the olympic break and still finish with 84 points and that won’t be enough for the playoffs. This team could easily go on a 6-8 game slide at any point. This current streak is not going to keep up and lately is showing signs of fizzeling out.
by Chickendirt on Jan 25, 2010 3:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
there will be 20 games or 40 points available after the break
we will likely need to get to 90-95 points to get a playoff spot. I don’t this or any team getting more than 30 out of 40 points, so a playoff spot would be just about impossible if we had less than 65. With 68-70 points, we could probably get a playoff spot with just a little better than .500 hockey the rest of the way. If we went on a tear, we might even get a 6 or a 5 seed…and increase our chances of advancing. If this team can play well enough to get to around 70 by the break, a playoff spot will be their’s to lose. We will start to believe they can do it and…more importantly, so will they.
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 25, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ya 70 points is way too high. They need to be at 70 if they want a chance at the 4 or 5 seed. To make the playoffs they just need to be at 60 to 64 points at the break. Just play .500 hockey from here til the break and their find. If they win tonight they are in 7th place alone (barring other results, I haven’t looked at the other teams playing tonight). There is NO WAY 90 points is the 8th seed in the east this year. The East hasn’t been this bad since the lockout, so lets not look at other years as barometers for how many points will be needed.
by The Fitz on Jan 26, 2010 1:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
the bottom seed will be at or near 90 points...if not above
If they don’t have AT LEAST 65 points, they have no shot…and it will be time for Garth to sell what he can and move prospects in for the balance of the season.
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 26, 2010 2:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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Atlantic Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Jersey
|
69 | 42 | 24 | 3 | 87 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
70 | 41 | 24 | 5 | 87 |
|
Philadelphia
|
69 | 36 | 28 | 5 | 77 |
|
New York Rangers
|
70 | 31 | 30 | 9 | 71 |
|
New York Islanders
|
70 | 29 | 32 | 9 | 67 |
(updated 3.18.2010 at 9:02 AM EDT)
Islanders Schedule
Next 5 Games
|
@
Anaheim
|
Fri 03/19 | 10:00 PM EDT |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Sat 03/20 | 10:30 PM EDT |
|
@
New York Rangers
|
Wed 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT |
|
Calgary
|
Thu 03/25 | 7:00 PM EDT |
|
@
Columbus
|
Sat 03/27 | 7:00 PM EDT |
Last 5 Games
|
@
Vancouver
|
Tue 03/16 | W 5 - 2 |
|
Toronto
|
Sun 03/14 | W 4 - 1 |
|
New Jersey
|
Sat 03/13 | W 4 - 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
Thu 03/11 | SO - L 1 - 2 |
|
@
Philadelphia
|
Tue 03/09 | L 2 - 3 |
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