The Math for 70
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 23, 2010 10:38 PM EST
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PrintBuyers or Sellers Will We Be?
It has been my view that the Isles have to have 70 points at the Olympic break to be in good position for a playoff run. Not getting points out of tonight's game and the Pittsburgh contest hurt, but it is still doable.
These next four are the key. The Caps are always going to be tough, but we have played well against them. The Canes and the Cats less Nathan Horton are both beatable teams. Philly will be the tough nut of the four, but we will need to be able to beat them if we are going to make the playoffs anyway.
If we get those eight points, we are halfway there. If we win the remaining game against the Canes, beat the Preds, take one of the two games against the Bolts, and beat either the Sens or the Pens, we are there.
Getting Andy Sutton back should help as should continued solid goaltending from Dwayne Roloson and Rick DiPietro. What we really need, though, is for John Tavares to start lighting the lamp again. It should be interesting.
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Tall order
So, 10 games left before the break, the Isles are at 54 pts. after 52 games played. To reach 70 before the break, they’d have to go 8-2, which means being even better than the run they’re on now (7-3 in their last 10). But I don’t think that’s a make-or-break number, and I can’t see Snow deciding to cut bait in early March just because his team is a win or two short.
After the break, 20 games left. No matter what they have to fetch more than a point per game the rest of the way. Today it looks like 8 teams fighting for three slots (the 6-8 seeds), as these teams all have between 52 and 55 pts.: PHI, NYR, MON, NYI, TB, ATL, FLA, BOS. To me that says the winners will grab something like 40 points over their final 30 games.
Philly will be the tough nut of the four, but we will need to be able to beat them if we are going to make the playoffs anyway.
Definitely, the Isles can’t hope to squeak into the playoffs while a divisional rival is running the table on them. In fact, the last two seasons Philly wouldn’t have made the playoffs without their dominant record over the Isles.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
PUT IT THIS WAY
at 70 points, they are a solid contender. At 65, they are marginal. Anything less, Garth probably has to think about selling and certainly isn’t buying. Of course, exactly what formula, if any, he has for this is a mystery know only to the inner circle of Isles management.
Of course, exactly what formula, if any, he has for this is a mystery know only to the inner circle of Isles management.
Yeah, coming into this season I thought Snow would be up for selling UFAs no matter what; focus on the long term. (He appeared ready to trade any UFAs last year, and it seemed Weight only remained thanks to injury.)
But the way he’s talked (albeit sparsely) this season, either he’s doing lip service for the troops or sincerely wanting to make the playoffs if at all possible. I suppose he’ll put a price on each veteran, and if the market won’t bear that price, he’ll stand pat barring a standings nosedive.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
The reason I set 70 as an arbitrary goal...
is that to get there, they would have to demonstrate excellence consistently and they would be in position to not just make the playoffs, but to be a higher seed and thus have a reasonable chance of doing something they haven’t done since 1993, win one or more playoff series. That might be worth giving up the picks that might be attained by selling UFAs and even expending a pick in hand or two. If, on the other hand, the team looks marginal to even make the playoffs and would likely be a one and done again, it will be time to sell. If the depleted roster team that is left can still make the playoffs, all the better. If not, nothing is lost.
Sounds like a plan.
As of now, I’m still expecting a non-playoff year and probably a lower pick than we’d prefer for a non-playoff team. But I don’t think I’ll mind if it continues to be a fun ride and the young players continue to progress.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
My mind is open
These next few weeks should tell the tale. As for the draft, my guess now is that we will finish between 12 and 18 overall. The picks we get for Biron, Park (maybe), our Phoenix third rounder, and, if need be, some 2011 picks (a weak draft) should get us into position to get Nino (which I hope Garth decides to do). Then, assuming that the unlikely notion I have advanced for a Roly trade does not take place, we can still use our second and third rounders for defensive prospects.
In fact, the last two seasons Philly wouldn’t have made the playoffs without their dominant record over the Isles.
That is so annoyingly true. :(
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 24, 2010 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Not well thought out
Just a shoot from the hip comment imo. 85 points could get you a playoff spot at the end of the season so 70 points is little too much to expect right now.
If all eight bubble teams kept playing so incredibly average, maybe high 80s would do it. But since the lockout the minimum in either conference has been 91 points and often higher. I’m thinking a few teams will catch fire and claim the last three spots (and I’m not ruling out Ottawa in that bubble, either, but right now they’re a little ahead of this congested pack).
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
If they keep playing the way they have recently
it isn’t. In any event, the teams that get to the playoffs and go places when there are the teams that start winning at a .600 clip or better right about now. If they win at that clip, they should be at or close to 70 and Garth may have the confidence not to sell or even to buy. If not, he may be selling and certainly isn’t buying.
What is there to sell?
Weight? Park? Meyer? Biron? None of those are going to fetch much. Sorry to be tough on you but you’re really not making any sense with this post math wise. If they win at .600 clip they’ll be at 66 points which will probably is at or near the 8th spot so even if they are a few point below 66 I see no big moves and again what are you trying to sell?
Actually making a lot of sense
Weight, Biron, Sutton, Sim, and Park would all be on the block and should all be good for picks. Winning at a .600 clip would be about the MINMUM they would need to hold any promise of making the playoffs, much less making a run. It would also put them at about 65-66 points which is about the minimum needed for them to have any shot at the playoffs. If they reach that, Garth probably doesn’t buy, but he also probably doesn’t sell anyone other than Biron. If they reach 70 points, they will be on such a roll and be in a position that Garth might realistically hope that they will not only make the playoffs, but also win a round or two. Then it might make some sense to do some modest buying.
Weight, Biron, Sutton, Sim, and Park would all be on the block and should all be good for picks.
Biron will be on the block, not those other guys. But even if they were, why do so many people think that other teams would be giving their draft picks away for them? The only one there that would garner the kind of attention you want would be Sutton- and IMO it would be a bad move to take away one of the few pieces that really work from an already thin D.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 24, 2010 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
most, if not all, of the above would be shopped
if this team does not look like it is going anywhere. No GM with any synapse activity can fail to realize that the return of Weight to the roster is the single biggest change that is sparking the recent surge. He will rate a pick. As much as we belittle Sim, he turns in one solid performance after another, scores goals, creates havoc, and gets more consistent praise from opposing broadcast crews than almost any other player. He would rate a pick. Going into this season, I would have thought a pick for Park would be a slam dunk, but his performance has fallen off a bit. He might be a tougher sell. I hear what you are saying about Sutton. It would depend on what’s being offered and how ready some of our prospects are.
if this team does not look like it is going anywhere.
That isnt going to happen. These 8 teams are for the most part going to keep going back and forth into and out of the playoff spots. The Isles would have to lose the next 15 games in a row for there to be a scenari where “this team does not look like it is going anywhere” and that isnt going to happen.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 25, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
for this team to have a realistic shot at the playoffs, it would need to have 65-70 points at the Olympic break. Less than that and there would be no real way for them to make it. Then it would simply be a matter of whether Garth could get fair value for our UFAs.
I don't think the number of points really matters right now
the reality is that more teams are going to take this team seriously as the season gets to the stretch. They are going to face fewer backup goaltenders and no team is going to take a night off againt them. Thus far we’ve seen a lot of teams kinda come in lay expecting an easy two points.
We could have 70 by the olympic break and still finish with 84 points and that won’t be enough for the playoffs. This team could easily go on a 6-8 game slide at any point. This current streak is not going to keep up and lately is showing signs of fizzeling out.
there will be 20 games or 40 points available after the break
we will likely need to get to 90-95 points to get a playoff spot. I don’t this or any team getting more than 30 out of 40 points, so a playoff spot would be just about impossible if we had less than 65. With 68-70 points, we could probably get a playoff spot with just a little better than .500 hockey the rest of the way. If we went on a tear, we might even get a 6 or a 5 seed…and increase our chances of advancing. If this team can play well enough to get to around 70 by the break, a playoff spot will be their’s to lose. We will start to believe they can do it and…more importantly, so will they.
I don't see this team being able to acheive .500
hockey after the break. Not to mention in the month of April where they have six game, Play Pittsburgh twice and one a piece with Jersey and Ottawa.
The first team they play in April is Philly. Philly pretty well has this team’s number.
March is just an ugly month for us. I don’t even want to go into the schedule by we have a pretty nasty west coast swing.
They've been a .500 team most of the season until recently
so I see no reason why they cannot do at least that well after the break. They will have to prove they can beat Philly. That is why I stressed the upcoming game against them as a key indicator. These next few weeks should be a good test of what this team can do. We will see.
Yeah but aside from the Flyers we have already been getting points off of and beating those teams.
I agree with BC:
I see no reason why they cannot do at least that well after the break. They will have to prove they can beat Philly
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 25, 2010 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Ya 70 points is way too high. They need to be at 70 if they want a chance at the 4 or 5 seed. To make the playoffs they just need to be at 60 to 64 points at the break. Just play .500 hockey from here til the break and their find. If they win tonight they are in 7th place alone (barring other results, I haven’t looked at the other teams playing tonight). There is NO WAY 90 points is the 8th seed in the east this year. The East hasn’t been this bad since the lockout, so lets not look at other years as barometers for how many points will be needed.
the bottom seed will be at or near 90 points...if not above
If they don’t have AT LEAST 65 points, they have no shot…and it will be time for Garth to sell what he can and move prospects in for the balance of the season.
what you are not taking into account is
the fact that this is the time of season where teams rev things up and make surges. No one would have predicted in the first half of last season that Anaheim, St. Louis, or Carolina would be in the playoffs. They not only made it, but Anaheim and Carolina put together pretty good runs. In any event, Garth would be foolish to assume that this team was going to make the playoffs with 60 points at the break. They have to do some heavy lifting now if they want Garth to get aggressive or even stand pat.
The organization (and Botta has backed this idea up) will not be making any big moves either way.
Let Us Go, Islanders! (Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)
by TheMetalChick on Jan 27, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
FOR ME
Kovi or Dion would be a big trade (and I hope that no move of that magnitude is contemplated.
Trading away Roly, Frans. or Bergy would also be kind of big.
Trading away UFAs who are not part of the team’s long term plans or buying a UFA rental like Raffi Torres would not be big moves.
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