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Around SBN: 2012 Budweiser Shootout Entry List Released

Islanders Stats: Scorers, and the PK sans Thompson

For posterity it's nice to have a numeric snapshot of who's doing what at a given point in the year, because by the end of the season you know some of these player rankings -- and how Scott Gordon deploys players -- will change. After the jump is a leaderboard of Islanders stats in various categories after 51 games -- 51 games where they're 23-20-8, I might add. (Relish it now, because you never know: That could be the high-water mark.)

But before that, a word about the departed Nate Thompson. In addition to Thompson's intangibles and other assorted sports cliches (cliches I am not immune to using, I admit), Thompson's presence on the penalty kill is what Gordon may miss most. But should he?

Among Islanders forwards, Thompson has logged the second-most PK minutes (Richard Park averages 2:46 per game, Thompson averaged 2:34. The next closest is Blake Comeau at 1:51). Throwing out 3-on-5, according to Behind the Net Thompson's also been on the ice for the second-most 4-on-5 goals against (20), behind Park's 26. Makes sense, right? If you play the PK the most, you'll be on for the most goals against.

But something that I and a few others have alluded to is that, even controlling for his higher PK time, Thompson and Park still give up PP goals at a much higher rate than their fellow forwards. Now it's possible that Gordon, who obviously trusts them, uses them in the "toughest" parts of the PK (whatever that is), so naturally they'll be victimized the most. But three or four other forwards get enough PK time to tell us that, with minute-munching Thompson gone, the PK should improve.

GP 4-on-5 TOI/60 GA GA/60
Frans Nielsen 45 1.72 6 4.88
Kyle Okposo 50 1.65 8 6.05
Blake Comeau 35 1.92 8 7.57
Sean Bergenheim 35 1.60 8 8.84
Richard Park 51 2.72 26 11.72
Nate Thompson 39 2.49 20 12.70

Star-divide

Note: The Islanders PK sits at 75.8%, currently 28th overall. For what it's worth, since Thompson last played Jan. 9, the Islanders PK has killed 13 of 16 (17 if you count the Penguins' empty-netter), going perfect except for the disastrous night in Pittsburgh.

While Thompson and Park don't play twice as much as their teammates on the 4-on-5 PK, they give up around twice as many powerplay goals (or in Frans "Danish Two-Way Force" Nielsen's case, they give up way over twice as many). They've played enough games and logged enough 4-on-5 minutes now where the above numbers start to mean something. (The final column, GA/60, is total goals against per 60 minutes of 4-on-5 ice time.)

It isn't (or shouldn't be) a shock that better hockey players make for better penalty killers. But often when fans think of a "good defensive forward," they think of a guy who doesn't score but is used shorthanded a lot. Alas, that is more by necessity than by desire: You can neither draft nor pay 12 great hockey players, yet you must use 12 forwards. (And if you shorten your bench consistently, you're asking for other problems down the line.)

By now most coaches should ideally want to deploy their best hockey players on the PK, but the realities of playing their best players in other situations sometimes make that impossible. So you have your Parks and Thompsons, who aren't much good at creating goals but will certainly do everything in their power to prevent them, not shying away from jumping on grenades for the team. Of course, their use on the PK seems to encourage more of the same as they assume "their role" and adopt an identity on a team. The coach keeps going back to them. This game is certainly not all numbers -- there is a psychological and group dynamic element -- so it's not hard to understand how this happens.

Yet as you accumulate better depth, the Thompsons of the world get bumped off the chart. The team overall improves. The same number of minutes in each game is shared by a slightly better group. The PK improves -- or so the theory goes. As several here have already said, Thompson's departure is a sign the team is getting better. (It's also a sign the team is carrying three goalies on the 23-man roster, but that one was unavoidable.)

[Update: For a briefer version of the above conclusions, you might check Puck Prospectus' look at Thompson, including his faceoff duties and quality of competition. h/t @eyeontheisland on Twitter.]

Stats through 51 Games

PlayerGPGAPTS+/-PIMESGPPGSHGSOGSPCTATOI
Kyle Okposo 50 10 23 33 -5 20 8 2 0 160 6.3 20:26
Matt Moulson 51 19 13 32 2 16 16 3 0 133 14.3 16:32
John Tavares 51 17 14 31 -5 12 9 8 0 122 13.9 18:08
Mark Streit 51 7 21 28 8 36 2 5 0 107 6.5 25:37
Joshua Bailey 50 12 13 25 12 8 9 2 1 70 17.1 14:50
Frans Nielsen 45 7 17 24 14 2 7 0 0 70 10 16:30
Trent Hunter 36 9 12 21 8 8 6 3 0 101 8.9 15:26
Rob Schremp 29 5 10 15 -1 8 2 3 0 52 9.6 13:54
Richard Park 51 4 11 15 -17 14 4 0 0 96 4.2 15:42
Jack Hillen 47 1 14 15 8 36 1 0 0 57 1.8 20:51
Blake Comeau 35 6 8 14 -4 26 5 0 1 59 10.2 15:10
Jeff Tambellini 24 7 6 13 -1 8 4 3 0 46 15.2 11:56
Sean Bergenheim 35 5 8 13 5 16 4 0 1 74 6.8 14:11
Andy Sutton 44 4 7 11 1 63 4 0 0 46 8.7 20:22
Jon Sim 49 7 3 10 0 34 6 1 0 85 8.2 12:01
Bruno Gervais 45 1 9 10 -6 21 1 0 0 44 2.3 19:18
Doug Weight 21 0 10 10 3 2 0 0 0 36 0 16:17
Freddy Meyer 33 1 7 8 -4 24 1 0 0 32 3.1 15:33
Nate Thompson 39 1 5 6 -14 39 1 0 0 48 2.1 12:56
Brendan Witt 42 2 3 5 -18 45 2 0 0 25 8 15:15
Andrew MacDonald 27 1 3 4 8 8 1 0 0 17 5.9 17:51
Tim Jackman 34 2 1 3 -7 72 2 0 0 31 6.5 9:11
Radek Martinek 16 2 1 3 -1 12 1 0 1 24 8.3 22:48
Jesse Joensuu 7 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 8 12.5 11:05
Dustin Kohn 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 11:20
Joel Rechlicz 5 0 0 0 -1 7 0 0 0 1 0 2:31

So that's that. Just for a different look, here they are ranked by plus-minus. No surprises here:

PlayerGPGAPTS+/-PIMESGPPGSHG
Frans Nielsen 45 7 17 24 14 2 7 0 0
Joshua Bailey 50 12 13 25 12 8 9 2 1
Mark Streit 51 7 21 28 8 36 2 5 0
Trent Hunter 36 9 12 21 8 8 6 3 0
Jack Hillen 47 1 14 15 8 36 1 0 0
Andrew MacDonald 27 1 3 4 8 8 1 0 0
Sean Bergenheim 35 5 8 13 5 16 4 0 1
Doug Weight 21 0 10 10 3 2 0 0 0
Matt Moulson 51 19 13 32 2 16 16 3 0
Andy Sutton 44 4 7 11 1 63 4 0 0
Dustin Kohn 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
Jon Sim 49 7 3 10 0 34 6 1 0
Jesse Joensuu 7 1 0 1 0 2 1 0 0
Rob Schremp 29 5 10 15 -1 8 2 3 0
Jeff Tambellini 24 7 6 13 -1 8 4 3 0
Radek Martinek 16 2 1 3 -1 12 1 0 1
Joel Rechlicz 5 0 0 0 -1 7 0 0 0
Blake Comeau 35 6 8 14 -4 26 5 0 1
Freddy Meyer 33 1 7 8 -4 24 1 0 0
Kyle Okposo 50 10 23 33 -5 20 8 2 0
John Tavares 51 17 14 31 -5 12 9 8 0
Bruno Gervais 45 1 9 10 -6 21 1 0 0
Tim Jackman 34 2 1 3 -7 72 2 0 0
Nate Thompson 39 1 5 6 -14 39 1 0 0
Richard Park 51 4 11 15 -17 14 4 0 0
Brendan Witt 42 2 3 5 -18 45 2 0 0

Any surprises? Who do you think will change by the end of the year? I say Tavares is due for a hot streak sometime between now -- or the Olympic break -- and the end of the year. JT may be our leading scorer yet, though obviously one shouldn't bet against Kyle Okopso.

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Great job, Dom

I think it speaks volumes that probably our top 11 scorers fit into the team’s long-term plans. This is a far cry from the Satan, Fedotenko, Comrie-led teams that were stopgaps to compete for an 8 spot. Add a top-flight winger and you’ve got a legitimately potent offense. I’m positively giddy.

NittanyWhiteOut.com. Arguably the second best Penn State blog I know of.

by PSUdevon on Jan 22, 2010 6:16 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks. I hadn’t even thought about it in that context, but you’re right: The top scorers are all part of the future, not a single expiring contract or stopgap guy among them. Pretty big what they’ve done lately without Tavares piling up points. Giggity giggity.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 22, 2010 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

I would love to be a fly on the wall this summer in Snow's office

hearing the phone calls from desperate agents trying to get the Isles to offer their dead weight clients a offer. Garth: “Sorry but we think your client is past his prime. Try the Atlanta. What? You say they have no money?”.

Isles are in the right place right time. I only want the Isles to acquire the best free agents now one or two tops. If they don’t want to come here let some welfare NHL club pay their salary like Tampa Bay or Phoenix until the check bounces. Most of the big clubs are kind of tapped out right now but of course the Rangers will find a way to sign more past their peak high priced talent. Good for us.

by rickrays on Jan 22, 2010 7:31 PM EST reply actions  

I say if JT stays with Bailey and KO, KO leads in scoring...

if they switch Moulson back its JT.
Unrelated, lines I would like to see every night

Bailey, JT, Okposo
Moulson, Schremp, Hunter
Bergenheim, Nielsen, Comeau
Sim, Weight, Park (used more sparingly)

by Judgegavel on Jan 22, 2010 7:32 PM EST reply actions  

Any chance Jackman comes back for Philly game next weekend?

For obvious reasons. If not Hunter plays the enforcer role.

Going into the final three weeks before the break heavy use of the top three lines is called for.

by rickrays on Jan 22, 2010 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

At this point I don't see why they don't just...

waive Tambellini (I think he’s out of options) and keep Rechlicz up for those games, at least he can actually win a fight. If they aren’t going to play Tamb’s every game he’s a waste. Of course Id prefer they throw him on the 4th line and sit Sim, but Gordon is in love with him so thats not going to happen.

by Judgegavel on Jan 22, 2010 8:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Look back over the MPG...

Park is given way way to much ice time

by Judgegavel on Jan 22, 2010 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Give Park some love

He scored in three straight games but ref took away two :)

Park is a better player when you put decent players around him. I’m sure Park + – would be different if he had the current forwards he’s playing with for the entire season. Don’t forget he’s a pretty decent faceoff man. By the way he hasn’t had a minus game since Dallas which was DP’s first start and Witt played defense. Park plays a solid two way game and the Isles are lucky to have him around especially in close games protecting a lead.

by rickrays on Jan 22, 2010 8:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I’m sure Park + – would be different if he had the current forwards he’s playing with for the entire season.

This has certainly been true in the past, and I’m hoping it’s true again. He’s versatile, speedy, can cover some mistakes, can win faceoffs. I like him as the utility guy at this piont.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 22, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

You can't blame it all on Thompson, and Jackman...

I really think Park has lost a step, and lets be real he never had more than OK 3rd line talent to begin with.

by Judgegavel on Jan 23, 2010 9:00 AM EST up reply actions  

I can't

Park is what he is. I’m not rating hi too high though — just saying that, as far as 3rd/4th liners go, I prefer his skillset.

I think he has probably lost a step, or is having an off year, but putting him with Thompson in critical situations probably helps neither of them.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 23, 2010 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Yea he's a nice player, a great 4th liner, but no way he should get more time

than Bailey, Bergenheim, or Hunter. I would even make a case for Schremp and Comeau getting more time (specifically on special teams) now. Bottom line for me is Park is not a top nine forward on this team anymore, and the youngsters need to be given more time now, they have proved themselves worthy (actually if we your using +/-, much, much better)

by Judgegavel on Jan 22, 2010 9:09 PM EST reply actions  

No love from the Devils tonight

3-1 loss to Habs. Halak was great in 3rd period. Parise showed up by the rest of his mates failed to. No blame goes to Brodeur of course. Jersey looks flat right now and a good time for Isles to play them on a back to back game. Some rare boos tonight at the Pru. Nice energy from Habs coming off a OT loss to Blues. Habs one point behind Isles and Bruins now.

by rickrays on Jan 22, 2010 9:20 PM EST reply actions  

Bailey Shooting at 17%

Surely his shooting percentage will regress at some point (not that I would want it to though…)

by HugoAgogo on Jan 22, 2010 10:56 PM EST reply actions  

No doubt

But maybe if he keeps getting shots on, we won’t notice? That six/seven-game run where he had zero shots was unreal. I’m not even sure how that happens.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 23, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions  

This whole post was an elaborate ploy by Dom to slip in that our Danish is a robust +14, continued subliminal messaging. I’m on to it!

Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.

by LaChance at Glory on Jan 23, 2010 12:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Ding ding ding!

LOL, so true. Lighthouse Hockey: A daily affirmation of Frans Nielsen, with a little bit of talk about some team he plays on, too.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 23, 2010 1:37 PM EST up reply actions  

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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 LW 10/2/1989 190 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 190 6-1
Mark Eaton 4 D 5/6/1977 215 6-1
Michael Grabner 40 RW 10/5/1987 185 6-0
Travis Hamonic 3 D 8/16/1990 203 6-2
Milan Jurcina 27 D 6/7/1983 253 6-4
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 196 6-1
Matt Martin 17 LW 3/8/1989 210 6-3
Al Montoya 35 G 2/13/1985 203 6-2
Mike Mottau 10 D 3/19/1978 190 6-0
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 205 6-1
Evgeni Nabokov 20 G 7/25/1975 200 6-0
Aaron Ness 55 D 5/18/1990 170 5-10
Nino Niederreiter 25 RW 9/8/1992 205 6-2
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 184 6-0
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 205 6-0
Jay Pandolfo 29 LW 12/27/1974 190 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 15 LW 3/24/1983 193 6-0
Marty Reasoner 16 C 2/26/1977 205 6-1
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 201 6-1
Brian Rolston 11 LW 2/21/1973 215 6-2
Steve Staios 24 D 7/28/1973 200 6-1
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 202 6-0
Tim Wallace 36 RW 8/6/1984 207 6-1
Ty Wishart 6 D 5/19/1988 222 6-4
Calvin de Haan 44 D 5/9/1991 187 6-1

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