Inside a Hot Streak: Some non-Tavares scoring
The first rule of identifying hot streaks (for easy headline consumption, anyway) is you pick a not-so-arbitrary cutoff of the last time a team stunk for multiple nights. In the case of the Islanders, victors of 15 of their last 20 possible points, that cutoff is the three-game losing streak that ended before Christmas.
Since that point, the Islanders are 7-2-1 by NHL standings. Peel back a layer of the NHL's artificial parity gloss, and in those 10 games they've compiled an expanded record of 3-1-3-2-0-1, meaning:
Still being outshot, still getting Roloson-style goaltending. Take out Rick DiPietro's game (4 GA on 28 shots), and you have an even better save percentage over nine games of .931, including Martin Biron's lone appearance of 28 saves on 30 Flyers shots.
Gabe at Behind the Net will tell you that, over time, standings points awarded after a regulation tie have a lot to do with luck. A team that appears great in the extra period or breakaway drill one year (or month) is just as likely to appear awful in another. Of course, in the shootout, having Frans Nielsen helps.
Still, the Islanders aren't exactly feasting on luck: With four bonus-round "wins" during this hot run, they may just be evening their ledger in the extra period. The Islanders have gone to more OT games (17) than any team thus far -- but that alone hasn't given them a ton of extra* points: They're just 9-8 in OT/SO overall, 4-5 in shootouts specifically. (Of course, their .500-ish record does flatter a team that is just 11-19 in regulation, but that's a discussion for another day, when we're not riding high from a 6-0 demolition).
* "Extra point" here means the point awarded to a team that scores during 4-on-4 OT or survives the shootout. Under the NHL's scheme, each team receives a point for a regulation tie, then they play a quick round of pick-up and (if necessary) breakaway drills to double their money.
Aside from talk of OT luck and shots and goaltending, a very hopeful thing sticks out in this run (a run skewed by last night's 6-0 win, of course): The Islanders have been scoring, and it's been their youth who have done the job. But it hasn't been the big-name youth who was doing the job during the first quarter of the season.
We know John Tavares -- who hasn't scored a goal since the beginning of this 10-game run -- has been in his first prolonged rookie-year slump. But that's just fine, in one sense: Where in October and November, they relied heavily on the 19-year-old's hands, right now they're winning without production from him:
Who are the "hottest" Islanders on the scoresheet during this run? You probably already know who, but enjoy this small sample:
*You know I would have put the two-way Nielsen on this list even if he had zero points, because you should worship him anyway. It's just the law; you have no choice. Respect the Great Dane or face the consequences.
Thanks to this team's youth -- and the hope placed on those shoulders -- every step forward gives an enticing glimpse at what may come for this team in the years ahead. Except in net, they're not relying on aging vets to produce. They're relying on a young waiver claim (the exciting yet unwritten book that is Rob Schremp Hockey) and three other kids who one day, if we're lucky, could make them great again.
Going out on a limb here, but I'm pretty sure John Tavares will be a part of that, too.
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And...Non - Moulsen (Scoring)
Not only has JT been absent from the Isles latest run, until last night there wasn’t much coming from the end of MM’s stick either.
Heh Dom….how good will these guys be at the end of January if they continue their hot play? They have the Devils and Panthers, twice, Buffalo, Pens, and Caps and 4 of those 5 teams: NJ, Buffalo, Washington and Pitt (regardless how the Pens have been playing of late) occupy spots 1 thru 4, respectfully, in the Eastern Conference. If the Isles come thru with another run like the one they’re on, things could get really exciting for this team. They’ll either play themselves into or out of a playoff spot during this next stretch…or, at the very least, show they can play with the big boys (or not).
With this team and this NHL year, I hesitate to guess
Gut tells me this will be the best blip, record-wise, of the season. They have to play this well or better to even get into the real playoff spots for a while.
Of course the optimist in me says each time they have a run like this, they learn a little more about what they can do and they shorten the length of their next losing streak. Either way, it sure looks like they’re going to keep us dreaming until the end.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
Taveras coming closer
Thanks to the invention of the DVR or Tivo, I have been able to watch almost every minute of the Islanders season so far, and I may rewatch last night game against the Red Wings because I want to see how they can play.
anyway, taveras seems to be getting some better chances the last few games. He seems to be standing still a little more than some of the other players, but he has seen the puck a little more with Bailey on his line than with Comeau on his line. I think he will put some in the net soon. He was best when he had Okposo and Moulson on his line, but I think with Bailey he may even top that if he is given a few more games together with him.
Especially if Quits Taking Shots to the Head
JT has looked a little gun shy of late and who could blame him after some of the shots he’s taken…look no further than Friday’s game against the Coyotes. I was sitting right behind the net when he took that shot to the head seconds before the end of the 1st period…he wasn’t the same the rest of the night.
I think Tavares has made strides, too. It’s an unknown and unanswerable question whether he’s hurt or not, but keeping KO/Bailey as linemates should sure help. The difference between Okposo in March 2008 makes me giddy for what JT will become.
Chances of me rewatching last night’s game between now and Saturday: At least 85%.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
JT will be fine
Five shots on goal and played 15 minutes last night. That doesn’t sound like someone who is hurt. He’s 19 so he’ll have his cold streaks feeling his way through early in his career. Lord knows we’ve seen KO add Bailey have their droughts.
Sheldon Souray?
May waive no trade clause but would like to stay out west to be near his family. His wife lives in LA. Still the Isles have both the salary room and prospects to make this happen. He’s signed through next season. Snow would have to sell him on the promise of the team going forward. I understand he wants to play for a so called proven contender (I don’t how anyone can prove that in today’s NHL). Botton line Edmonton has few years to rebuild so Isles are a better option for him at the moment.
Every time I think about Souray, I see another report that he’s playing lost. Edmonton has major problems though, so a change might help. Doubt the cost and doubt he’d move this direction though.
You’re so right, though: Not many teams can claim to be a “proven” contender from one year to the next, and even when they are one year … they might be 2009-10 Boston the next.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
we'd have to give up too much for Souray
John Michael Lisles, on the other hand, might be available for a song this summer.
No matter how you slice it (and like anyone with a fear of heights I try not to look down but have trouble with that) we are three points out of 5th spot! And with Boston out west about to kneel to their former captain in San Jose, I can see the bottom half bunching up here.— Tavares-wise it is evident to me, even as november turned into December, he doesn’t have the lower body stregnth yet to bring him through the whole year full throttle, i notice he has trouble riding checks as he goes into corners after pucks or accompanies a defender to the boards after a dump in, it seems like every time he loses his feet. I smell about 25,000 hack squats in an offseason conditioning program.
Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.
by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 7:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
That’s a great description of Tavares’ game right now. I hope you’re free this summer to lead his training. “Twenty more! Now! Dig!”
The standings, I try not to look but I’m a liar if I say I don’t dream. Roloson + health + youngsters + weak East = blueline warts masked?
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
It’s weird because he’s so deceptively big you forget his youth and assume that he’s physically mature, so you don’t expect to see him down in those positions, but then you are reminded what the finished product will look like, I’m thinkin John LeClair-ish.
Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.
by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 8:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Good Lord can the Caps help us out!!!
Losing to Panthers 1-0 already. Game is being streamed on yahoo.
Caps could use a goalie
and Isles need a big defensemen. Biron for one of John Erskine or Shaone Morrisonn.
Hey, if they’re that desperate for a goalie, don’t ask questions and say yes.
But if I were them, I wouldn’t pay a premium to bet that Biron will find a level that Theo/Varlamov/Neuvirth cannot. Can’t help thinking BIron is only going to fetch a draft pick.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
I don't see Caps going much further than one round with what they have now
Biron has recent history of some success in playoffs. Looks like a good trade partner. At any rate Isles need a defensemen that doesn’t blow a tire in his own zone.
At any rate Isles need a defensemen that doesn’t blow a tire in his own zone.
Haha — two or three! This goalie question has lingered there … like they’ve been betting all along to catch a hot run by Theo/Semyon at the right time.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
letting up 11 goals in a little over 24 hours might have the Caps FO asking questions
It’s just wishful thinking but I’d rather get a quality defenseman than a pcik for Biron but don’t we all.
Can live with Florida dropping a point there in a winning position
Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.
by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 10:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions

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