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Inside a Hot Streak: Some non-Tavares scoring

The first rule of identifying hot streaks (for easy headline consumption, anyway) is you pick a not-so-arbitrary cutoff of the last time a team stunk for multiple nights. In the case of the Islanders, victors of 15 of their last 20 possible points, that cutoff is the three-game losing streak that ended before Christmas.

Since that point, the Islanders are 7-2-1 by NHL standings. Peel back a layer of the NHL's artificial parity gloss, and in those 10 games they've compiled an expanded record of 3-1-3-2-0-1, meaning:


Dec. 23 - Jan. 12
GP W reg.
OTW SOW
L reg.
OTL SOL
GF
GA ShF/gm
ShA/gm Sv.%
Islanders 2009-10 10 3
1 3
2
0
1
31 23
27.9 30.5 .925

Still being outshot, still getting Roloson-style goaltending. Take out Rick DiPietro's game (4 GA on 28 shots), and you have an even better save percentage over nine games of .931, including Martin Biron's lone appearance of 28 saves on 30 Flyers shots.

Gabe at Behind the Net will tell you that, over time, standings points awarded after a regulation tie have a lot to do with luck. A team that appears great in the extra period or breakaway drill one year (or month) is just as likely to appear awful in another. Of course, in the shootout, having Frans Nielsen helps.

Still, the Islanders aren't exactly feasting on luck: With four bonus-round "wins" during this hot run, they may just be evening their ledger in the extra period. The Islanders have gone to more OT games (17) than any team thus far -- but that alone hasn't given them a ton of extra* points: They're just 9-8 in OT/SO overall, 4-5 in shootouts specifically. (Of course, their .500-ish record does flatter a team that is just 11-19 in regulation, but that's a discussion for another day, when we're not riding high from a 6-0 demolition).

Star-divide

* "Extra point" here means the point awarded to a team that scores during 4-on-4 OT or survives the shootout. Under the NHL's scheme, each team receives a point for a regulation tie, then they play a quick round of pick-up and (if necessary) breakaway drills to double their money.

Aside from talk of OT luck and shots and goaltending, a very hopeful thing sticks out in this run (a run skewed by last night's 6-0 win, of course): The Islanders have been scoring, and it's been their youth who have done the job. But it hasn't been the big-name youth who was doing the job during the first quarter of the season.

We know John Tavares -- who hasn't scored a goal since the beginning of this 10-game run -- has been in his first prolonged rookie-year slump. But that's just fine, in one sense: Where in October and November, they relied heavily on the 19-year-old's hands, right now they're winning without production from him:


Dec. 23 - Jan. 12 G A P +/- Shot on Goal
 John Tavares 1 1 2 E 16

 

Who are the "hottest" Islanders on the scoresheet during this run? You probably already know who, but enjoy this small sample:


Dec. 23 - Jan. 12 GP G A
Pts
+/-
Josh Bailey 10 4 9
13
+8
Rob Schremp 10 4 5
9
+4
Kyle Okposo 10 5 3
8
+1
Frans Nielsen* 10 2 6
8
+6

*You know I would have put the two-way Nielsen on this list even if he had zero points, because you should worship him anyway. It's just the law; you have no choice. Respect the Great Dane or face the consequences.

Thanks to this team's youth -- and the hope placed on those shoulders -- every step forward gives an enticing glimpse at what may come for this team in the years ahead. Except in net, they're not relying on aging vets to produce. They're relying on a young waiver claim (the exciting yet unwritten book that is Rob Schremp Hockey) and three other kids who one day, if we're lucky, could make them great again.

Going out on a limb here, but I'm pretty sure John Tavares will be a part of that, too.

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And...Non - Moulsen (Scoring)

Not only has JT been absent from the Isles latest run, until last night there wasn’t much coming from the end of MM’s stick either.

Heh Dom….how good will these guys be at the end of January if they continue their hot play? They have the Devils and Panthers, twice, Buffalo, Pens, and Caps and 4 of those 5 teams: NJ, Buffalo, Washington and Pitt (regardless how the Pens have been playing of late) occupy spots 1 thru 4, respectfully, in the Eastern Conference. If the Isles come thru with another run like the one they’re on, things could get really exciting for this team. They’ll either play themselves into or out of a playoff spot during this next stretch…or, at the very least, show they can play with the big boys (or not).

by CC_LV1 on Jan 13, 2010 4:53 PM EST reply actions  

With this team and this NHL year, I hesitate to guess

Gut tells me this will be the best blip, record-wise, of the season. They have to play this well or better to even get into the real playoff spots for a while.

Of course the optimist in me says each time they have a run like this, they learn a little more about what they can do and they shorten the length of their next losing streak. Either way, it sure looks like they’re going to keep us dreaming until the end.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Playing a veteran team like the Wings earlier in the season the Islanders would have lost control of the game once or twice, I think in that respect last night was a good sign.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Jan 13, 2010 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Taveras coming closer

Thanks to the invention of the DVR or Tivo, I have been able to watch almost every minute of the Islanders season so far, and I may rewatch last night game against the Red Wings because I want to see how they can play.

anyway, taveras seems to be getting some better chances the last few games. He seems to be standing still a little more than some of the other players, but he has seen the puck a little more with Bailey on his line than with Comeau on his line. I think he will put some in the net soon. He was best when he had Okposo and Moulson on his line, but I think with Bailey he may even top that if he is given a few more games together with him.

by Rickfansince76 on Jan 13, 2010 4:55 PM EST reply actions  

Especially if Quits Taking Shots to the Head

JT has looked a little gun shy of late and who could blame him after some of the shots he’s taken…look no further than Friday’s game against the Coyotes. I was sitting right behind the net when he took that shot to the head seconds before the end of the 1st period…he wasn’t the same the rest of the night.

by CC_LV1 on Jan 13, 2010 5:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Tavares has made strides, too. It’s an unknown and unanswerable question whether he’s hurt or not, but keeping KO/Bailey as linemates should sure help. The difference between Okposo in March 2008 makes me giddy for what JT will become.

Chances of me rewatching last night’s game between now and Saturday: At least 85%.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 5:34 PM EST up reply actions  

JT will be fine

Five shots on goal and played 15 minutes last night. That doesn’t sound like someone who is hurt. He’s 19 so he’ll have his cold streaks feeling his way through early in his career. Lord knows we’ve seen KO add Bailey have their droughts.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 7:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Sheldon Souray?

May waive no trade clause but would like to stay out west to be near his family. His wife lives in LA. Still the Isles have both the salary room and prospects to make this happen. He’s signed through next season. Snow would have to sell him on the promise of the team going forward. I understand he wants to play for a so called proven contender (I don’t how anyone can prove that in today’s NHL). Botton line Edmonton has few years to rebuild so Isles are a better option for him at the moment.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 7:26 PM EST reply actions  

Every time I think about Souray, I see another report that he’s playing lost. Edmonton has major problems though, so a change might help. Doubt the cost and doubt he’d move this direction though.

You’re so right, though: Not many teams can claim to be a “proven” contender from one year to the next, and even when they are one year … they might be 2009-10 Boston the next.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 7:44 PM EST up reply actions  

we'd have to give up too much for Souray

John Michael Lisles, on the other hand, might be available for a song this summer.

by BCISLEMAN on Jan 13, 2010 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

No matter how you slice it (and like anyone with a fear of heights I try not to look down but have trouble with that) we are three points out of 5th spot! And with Boston out west about to kneel to their former captain in San Jose, I can see the bottom half bunching up here.— Tavares-wise it is evident to me, even as november turned into December, he doesn’t have the lower body stregnth yet to bring him through the whole year full throttle, i notice he has trouble riding checks as he goes into corners after pucks or accompanies a defender to the boards after a dump in, it seems like every time he loses his feet. I smell about 25,000 hack squats in an offseason conditioning program.

Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.

by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 7:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions   1 recs

That’s a great description of Tavares’ game right now. I hope you’re free this summer to lead his training. “Twenty more! Now! Dig!”

The standings, I try not to look but I’m a liar if I say I don’t dream. Roloson + health + youngsters + weak East = blueline warts masked?

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 7:42 PM EST up reply actions  

It’s weird because he’s so deceptively big you forget his youth and assume that he’s physically mature, so you don’t expect to see him down in those positions, but then you are reminded what the finished product will look like, I’m thinkin John LeClair-ish.

Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.

by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 8:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

The announcers mentioned that in last nights’ game….these (younger) guys don’t develop their “man” strength unitl their early to mid 20’s. If that’s the case, then they will only get better and better. A little experience won’t hurt either.

by CC_LV1 on Jan 13, 2010 9:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Good Lord can the Caps help us out!!!

Losing to Panthers 1-0 already. Game is being streamed on yahoo.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 7:55 PM EST reply actions  

Caps could use a goalie

and Isles need a big defensemen. Biron for one of John Erskine or Shaone Morrisonn.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 9:15 PM EST reply actions  

Hey, if they’re that desperate for a goalie, don’t ask questions and say yes.

But if I were them, I wouldn’t pay a premium to bet that Biron will find a level that Theo/Varlamov/Neuvirth cannot. Can’t help thinking BIron is only going to fetch a draft pick.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't see Caps going much further than one round with what they have now

Biron has recent history of some success in playoffs. Looks like a good trade partner. At any rate Isles need a defensemen that doesn’t blow a tire in his own zone.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 10:47 PM EST up reply actions  

At any rate Isles need a defensemen that doesn’t blow a tire in his own zone.

Haha — two or three! This goalie question has lingered there … like they’ve been betting all along to catch a hot run by Theo/Semyon at the right time.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 13, 2010 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

letting up 11 goals in a little over 24 hours might have the Caps FO asking questions

It’s just wishful thinking but I’d rather get a quality defenseman than a pcik for Biron but don’t we all.

by rickrays on Jan 13, 2010 11:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Can live with Florida dropping a point there in a winning position

Claude LaPointe didn't make as good a pun, sadly.

by LaChance at Glory on Jan 13, 2010 10:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 LW 10/2/1989 190 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 190 6-1
Mark Eaton 4 D 5/6/1977 215 6-1
Michael Grabner 40 RW 10/5/1987 185 6-0
Travis Hamonic 3 D 8/16/1990 203 6-2
Milan Jurcina 27 D 6/7/1983 253 6-4
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 196 6-1
Matt Martin 17 LW 3/8/1989 210 6-3
Al Montoya 35 G 2/13/1985 203 6-2
Mike Mottau 10 D 3/19/1978 190 6-0
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 205 6-1
Evgeni Nabokov 20 G 7/25/1975 200 6-0
Aaron Ness 55 D 5/18/1990 170 5-10
Nino Niederreiter 25 RW 9/8/1992 205 6-2
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 184 6-0
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 205 6-0
Jay Pandolfo 29 LW 12/27/1974 190 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 15 LW 3/24/1983 193 6-0
Rhett Rakhshani 49 RW 3/6/1988 190 5-10
Marty Reasoner 16 C 2/26/1977 205 6-1
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 201 6-1
Brian Rolston 11 LW 2/21/1973 215 6-2
Steve Staios 24 D 7/28/1973 200 6-1
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 202 6-0
Tim Wallace 36 RW 8/6/1984 207 6-1
Calvin de Haan 44 D 5/9/1991 187 6-1

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