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Could Ilya really tie the room together? Make an offer.

I don't fan the flames of idle trade speculation here: I know it's fun (and lucrative, for some hucksters), but I figure if I set the tone of trade-mongering, it will encourage too much "That Snow should trade Coameau and Suttton 4 Kavolchuk & Bogozhun, bleeaaargh!" juvenilia to come out of the woodwork. I'd prefer to avoid that. That's not to say reasonable trade discussions are off-limits -- rather, when it comes up here, I prefer it be grounded in some sort of reality that exists without the aid of controlled substances.

With that in mind, obviously the Islanders will not and cannot make a trade for Ilya Kovalchuk. It's simply not happening, and it probably shouldn't under any conditions conforming to the laws of physics in the known universe (Short list of reasons: This franchise's build cycle, Ilya's market price, his UFA status, Isles payroll, arena/location uncertainty, Ilya's unfamiliarity with his own zone, and Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle ...)

But Thrashers fans, represented on SBN by Birdwatchers Anonymous, are facing the uncomfortable prospect of their franchise forward hitting the trade market if contract negotiations don't wrap up. BWA leader The Falconer is going to compile "offers" and post them later this week. I'm going to submit one for the Islanders by Wednesday night. I want your help.

In a make-believe world where you're GM and Charles Wang told you to make a play for Kovalchuk, what offer would you make? Before making your offer/argument/motion to dismiss, please follow the conditions and caveats after the jump.

Star-divide

Ground Rules:

  • You cannot negotiate with Kovalchuk on an extension before acquiring him. However, since it's such a monumental stretch to pretend the Islanders are in play under any circumstances, if that condition is a non-starter, feel free to explain. (e.g. "Look, I won't give you dirt for him without an extension, but with an extension I'll put real assets on the table.")
  • If you get him, you risk losing him this summer. If you insist on negotiating an extension, you risk being left out.
  • You cannot just dump unwanted veterans on Atlanta. They'll want a roster player(s) plus real prospect(s), and perhaps a conditional 1st-rounder if you re-sign him. No goalies.
  • Kovalchuk's cap hit, which doesn't matter to us for this year, is $6.389 million. If you're planning on re-signing him, rumor is he's asking for near-max level salary, like in $10 million country.
  • While this is make-believe, all of the other restrictive conditions around this franchise still apply.

Again, I know this is all toying in fantasy land. But pretend you have orders from ownership to at least try. Without screwing up what you've built, without screwing up the future, what is the maximum you're willing to do to add a star who might even help you make the playoffs, excite fans and upgrade your core?

Beyond that point, you go back and tell Wang, "Sorry Charlie, it's just not worth it." Keep in mind -- unless you disagree -- you're bidding for a dynamic scorer in his prime, but hardly an Ovechkin or Crosby here.

Start the bidding. Gamble only what you are prepared to lose.

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Umm… would he at least think about it if we said “Please?”
Of the ones that they would be willing to take, I’m not sure that giving them up is best for the team. Conversely, of the ones I have no problem giving up, I don’t think they are going to be willing to take.
/sigh

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 1:17 PM EST reply actions  

Alright here we go….
Roster player: Josh Bailey
Pick: This year’s 1st rounder
Prospect: Aaron Ness and Cory Trivino

This would not totally F*** things up long term. While, yes, we lose a great young player in Bailey, let’s be honest, he is not going to ever be as good as Kovalchuk. We do have a nice little crop of centers, especially if Schremp continues to develop. This years first round pick, which as this pace could be around the 7 to 15 range will also not be as good as Kovalchuk either. And Ness and Trivino, while very good young prospects, would not kill our prospect pool by losing them.

Just imagine a first line of Kovalchuk, Tavares and Okposo for the next 10 years…. tasty!

This would get the deal done. But Garth, if your are reading this. PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS. Kovalchuk wouldn’t sign here long term

by The Fitz on Jan 11, 2010 1:32 PM EST reply actions  

PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS. Kovalchuk wouldn’t sign here long term

i was wondering if we were going to bang heads again… but then u saved it at the end ;-)

i agree that wouldn’t derail the rebuild, but it kills BC’s dream of landing Nino, so we can’t do that

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Jan 11, 2010 1:52 PM EST up reply actions  

it would derail the rebuild

it would be a Mike Milbury move…not least because Kovi would mever sign with us and we’d be out what ever we gave up for him for nothing. And, given that some Portland fans have been reminded by Nino of Marian Hossa who got his NA start there, I would have to say that we would be better off long term drafting Nino even IF Kovi signed with us.

by BCISLEMAN on Jan 11, 2010 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

not that it matters because...

Garth would NEVER be silly enough to make such a bonehead move.

by BCISLEMAN on Jan 11, 2010 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Interesting bid
This would get the deal done. But Garth, if your are reading this. PLEASE DO NOT DO THIS.

Bahaha. Thanks for playing.

It’s a tough topic, with all our own restrictions plus what Atlanta is seeking (and everyone’s tendency to offer their best-case scenario for another’s worst-case). I think he might even fetch more, simply because a team with a better chance of signing him might offer more. Yet what you offer is hardly cheap from the Isles perspective (a good demo of why the Isles can’t get involved). But given how the Hossa deal worked out, it’ll be interesting to see how these match up with whatever ultimately results.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 11, 2010 1:56 PM EST up reply actions  

personally, if i’m DW, i start by saying KO or JT, which one are you going to give up? if you wont move 1 of those 2, then we are done talking… then i call back Kovi’s agent

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Jan 11, 2010 1:54 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah, totally. But word in ATL is that Waddell doesn’t like to allow a team to negotiate contract because then he “loses control of the process.” But how else will he get real value? The Hossa deal didn’t work out so hot.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 11, 2010 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

It did for the Hawks. :)

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 2:47 PM EST up reply actions  

For now…

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Ouch man.

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 9:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh. I had to. That jury is still out on that contract.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 9:57 PM EST up reply actions  

True, but I think he was a big step up from Havalat.

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 10:34 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d agree with that. I just didn’t see the sense in signing a veteran long term with all the talent you have that is just coming ripe now.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 11:15 PM EST up reply actions  

The only thing I can think, is that the Hawks were where the Isles are now just a few years before. (Does that sentence make any sense outside of my head?) The Hawks knew they were going to lose a handfull of talent at the end of this season, especially if they are gunning for the cup as well as it seems. Therefore, you lock up the best you can for as long as you can, and pray for the rest.

/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.

by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

He already lost control. Now if he wants to regain leverage he at least needs to give teams the chance of setting up a trade and sign. His value as a rental is far below his value as a FA so he should do whatever he can to try to cash in on both.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Id throw a big offer at this one…

First I would throw Moulson on there who isn’t too old and has pretty good numbers this year but honestly I wouldn’t mind losing him

Next I’d throw Douggie Weight in there and try to convince Atlanta that Doug could replace Ilya on the PP and give them veteran leadership for a playoff run.

Then put in one of those Goalies that we took in the draft.. I know they have a couple of solid tendies but teams can never get enough inexpensive 6’3-6’5 tendies taken high in the draft with loads of potential.

Finally I would throw in our number one pick for next years draft and if at all possible put in a condition that if Ilya Re-signs they get our 2011 number 1 pick also.

That being said im sure Atlanta is recieving offers for much better players with equal draft picks and its difficult because you can’t get that extension so you can’t throw everything you want at this deal.. I think there is No way this deal or any other deal works that the Islanders get Kovalchuk. I would love to see it , not to mention that if he came i gaurentee Petrov would be here in a matter of days to create a nasty tandem with Ilya. if we were able to negotiate an extension pretrade I would put everything we had up for grabs for this guy… Im talkin JT + KO + #1 pick…. this guy has better hands than JT better skating than KO better shot than just about everyone in the league. Hes got the kind of talent not even Kate Murray can ignore. True he is rather uninterested in Defense but id still trade the whole roster for him

by Big Swoopty on Jan 11, 2010 3:18 PM EST reply actions  

And then you could be the Atlanta Thrashers.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:34 PM EST up reply actions  

A smart move would be to hold on to what you have and then try to sign him in the offseason if you are so interested in him. Chances are he is not going to get a great feel for the place that trades for him. Plus Garth already has one Smyth on his resume he does not need another for a team that is barely making the playoffs if at all. There would be no purpose in the Isles trading for him.

Jon Sim and Andy Sutton and a case of tape to hold each of them together….lol! How do you like them apples? Actually I guess given our last years injury record that isn’t so funny.

I am starting to believe that the guy that hit Brendan Witt with the SUV was Swiss.

by metalcoconut on Jan 11, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

There would be no purpose in the Isles trading for him.

Shhhhhh…!

Yeah, it’s a hard exercise for me to wrap my head around, because I feel the same way. A sign-and-trade would change the variables, but then we’re traveling to yet another dimension of make-believe. Still, I had to throw it out there, fun way to get people thinking.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 11, 2010 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Never let a lack of purpose stop you! It makes even less sense for the Caps to trade for Kovalchuk but it hasn’t stopped us from having this discussion a million times already.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I’d offer a 2nd with something along the lines of if the Islanders get to the 2nd round of the playoffs it becomes a first. Throw in one or two prospects along the lines Krill Petrov, especially if they were a low pick and had a good run at the World JRs, one of the Bridgeport goalies and one of our 3 or 4th line grinders (or Hunter).

I don’t know, its not a trade I’d make for a multitude of reasons. These type of players never seem to make the impact you hope, just look at the Penguins and Hossa. They lose Hossa, Red Wings gain Hossa and the Penguins win the rematch of the finals.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Jan 11, 2010 4:59 PM EST reply actions  

Oh wait, why no Goalies? Their starters aren’t that impressive and their prospects are just as bad according to Hockeysfuture. Obviously I wouldn’t expect them to take Biron,Rollie or DiP but our BP goalies aren’t bad.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Jan 11, 2010 5:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the main reason is they have their own goalie crowd/issue at the moment, so no NHL goalies. (But maybe also that they’re taking a hit on offense when losing the sniper.)

So sure, throw goalie prospects in play if you want.

The more I think about this (and I can’t seem to stop — perhaps because it’s such an impossible match), the more I think Waddell has left himself in a miserable fix. Again.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 11, 2010 5:08 PM EST up reply actions  

And that’s the moral of the story. He learned nothing from watching Jacques Martin muff the JBo situation last season, and now he’s making the exact same mistakes. Idiot. If they get 80 cents on the dollar I’ll be shocked.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Realistically though, the Panthers at least SHOULD have made the playoffs last year. If it wasn’t for a shootout loss in Jan to the Montreal, they had every other tiebreaker over Montreal. I don’t think anyone thinks this Atlanta team can somehow make the playoffs.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Jan 12, 2010 12:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Early on ATL looked like a playoff threat, now they certainly don’t. They can definitely score so if they get a little better defensively or get some hot goaltending I could see them sneaking in.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 12, 2010 1:14 AM EST up reply actions  

This is the best I could come up with. Yikes.

Islanders Trade:
2010 1st Round Draft Pick
Travis Hamonic
Blake Comeau, Jeff Tambellini, Andrew MacDonald

Thrashers Trade:
Ilya Kovalchuk
Anssi Salmela

by IsleStyle on Jan 11, 2010 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks for submitting!

This is the best I could come up with. Yikes.

Haha, is it just me, or does every possibility feel dirty? The unsignability factor is what really sabotages the exercise. Anything that’s worth Atlanta’s time is probably too much considering Ilya is a longshot to sign. And any offer that takes that into account is probably so embarrassing for Waddell that he’d probably stand pat and double up on his playoff push.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 11, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

And then fall short and lose him for Jordan Leopold.

Now let's say you and I go toe to toe on bird law and see who comes out the victor.

by Rob Parker on Jan 11, 2010 8:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's My Attempt At Reasoning Out A Trade

Honestly, I would consider that the Hossa trade (two players, a blue chip prospect and a 1st for Hossa and a roster player) is where you would start as a template for a successful bid for Kovalchuk.

The first prospect I would choose (like WebBard said) is Kirill Petrov.

Why? Because he is Russian, plain and simple. There is a similar risk-reward dynamic by offering him as there was when Esposito was put in the Hossa trade. The risk is that as he is Russian, he will stay in the KHL and they will lose him for nothing. The reward is that he is considered a blue chip prospect and has a lot of potential if he comes over.

As far as the second player goes – I don’t know who it should be. Obviously, as we are not getting additional players back (as the hypothetical is just for Kovalchuk), the Isles don’t need to offer a third player as with the Hossa trade.

Possibly Comeau or Tambellini and second tier prospect (if this were enough).

Obviously, you have to offer a 1st rounder and possibly another high-ish draft pick (although I would ideally make this conditional on him signing, making the playoffs or something like that).

I would be hesitant to offer more than this though as a serious offer – as Kovalchuk is far from being the final piece that makes the Isles perennial cup contenders. Other teams who think Kovalchuk is the final piece are more likely to be desperate for him and make better offers.Thus, I would make a low-ish offer based on these pieces and if it works then that is good, if not, no harm done.

But, that’s just my 9-10 million dollars over 5+ years (or 2 cents whatever does it for you)…

by HugoAgogo on Jan 11, 2010 7:09 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

There is a similar risk-reward dynamic by offering him as there was when Esposito was put in the Hossa trade. The risk is that as he is Russian, he will stay in the KHL and they will lose him for nothing.

I like this reasoning. And since we could only go in with a take-it-or-leave-it approach, I’d bang on that hard with DW: “Look, you’re giving me a guy with no guarantees because you won’t allow extension negotiation. I’m giving you that back in kind. Have fun with Tambellini in the shootout.”

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 12, 2010 12:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Use the Smyth trade as a guideline

So basically Garth would need to give up equal or greater talent he did in the Smyth trade: Nilsson, O’Marra and a 1st Rounder. remember back when the trade was made in 2007 both Nilsson and O’Marra had significantly higher value then they do today.

With that in mind here’s my theoretical offer, even though I think the Isles should stay far away for Kovy.

De Haan/Hamonic (Waddell’s Choice)
Jesse Joensuu
Player Rights to Kirill Petrov
1st Rounder

Another possibility to get it done would involve a three team trade with Biron and kari Lehtonen. Now Waddell will want more, but I don’t know if he’ll get it. And I think the Isles would be giving up too much for basically a rental before Kovy goes to the KHL.

I have an ego larger than Mikko Koskinen

by David Hanssen on Jan 11, 2010 8:47 PM EST reply actions  

How much of a trend-follower am I that losing Hamonic scares me more than losing De Haan right now? By rights, De Haan’s package (huh huh) is going to take longer to develop, so I shouldn’t read into this season, but since Hamonic was the stud in the WJC, I feel more assured that he’ll be as billed.

That’s a healthy proposal though. With Nilsson and particularly O’Marra, I had the feeling even then that Snow’s staff had made up their minds that those two weren’t part of the future. Trying to think which current prospects might fit that bill and were also touted at one time.

Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.

by Dominik on Jan 12, 2010 12:56 AM EST up reply actions  

How much of a trend-follower am I that losing Hamonic scares me more than losing De Haan right now?

not much, he went from a shut-down 3-4 defensemen with #2 upside, to a #1-2 dman with PP and PK assets and a leader on his whl and wjc team… de haan is a year younger too :-)

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Jan 12, 2010 9:04 AM EST up reply actions  

let's change this discussion

to what we want Sather to give up to get Kovi and really destroy the booshirt franchise.

by BCISLEMAN on Jan 11, 2010 11:47 PM EST reply actions  

anyway, is it just me or...

does Kovi kinda look like Peter Pan in that pic….you can fly, you can fly, you can fly. Probably just me…comes with getting another year older. Why do we have birthdays…somebody remind me.

by BCISLEMAN on Jan 12, 2010 12:00 AM EST reply actions  

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Josh Bailey 12 LW 10/2/1989 190 6-1
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Mark Eaton 4 D 5/6/1977 215 6-1
Michael Grabner 40 RW 10/5/1987 185 6-0
Travis Hamonic 3 D 8/16/1990 203 6-2
Milan Jurcina 27 D 6/7/1983 253 6-4
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 196 6-1
Matt Martin 17 LW 3/8/1989 210 6-3
Al Montoya 35 G 2/13/1985 203 6-2
Mike Mottau 10 D 3/19/1978 190 6-0
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 205 6-1
Evgeni Nabokov 20 G 7/25/1975 200 6-0
Nino Niederreiter 25 RW 9/8/1992 205 6-2
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 184 6-0
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 205 6-0
Jay Pandolfo 29 LW 12/27/1974 190 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 15 LW 3/24/1983 193 6-0
Rhett Rakhshani 49 RW 3/6/1988 190 5-10
Marty Reasoner 16 C 2/26/1977 205 6-1
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 201 6-1
Brian Rolston 11 LW 2/21/1973 215 6-2
Steve Staios 24 D 7/28/1973 200 6-1
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 202 6-0
Tim Wallace 36 RW 8/6/1984 207 6-1
Calvin de Haan 44 D 5/9/1991 187 6-1

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