Betwixt and Between: What WILL Garth Do?
by BCISLEMAN on Jan 10, 2010 11:43 PM EST
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PrintIsles' season at a crossroads.
Our next game is against the team that has twice represented the Western Conference in the Cup Finals, winning once and losing in a seventh game the other time. This would seem the perfect time to assess this team's realistic chances of making it to the big dance this year.
Through 46 games, we have 46 points. Five points more and we are the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference. Five points less and we are the #4 overall pick in the entry draft. Is this a playoff team? It seems unlikely.
There are 16 games left between now and the end of February when GMs will be making decisions regarding deadline deals. That's 32 possible points. To be a serious contender, I would think the Isles would need to come away with at least 24 of those points and have 70 points going into the game against Chicago on March 2. That's 12 wins or possibly 10 wins and four OT / SO losses. Raise your hand if you think this team can do that. Me neither.
More likely the Isles will have about 60 points at the deadline with 20 games and 40 possible points left. They would probably need to win about 15 of those 20 games to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. That's not happening either. Garth certainly will not be buying at the deadline. Will he be selling off talent? If so, who?
This will depend partly on DP. If he is lights out, Biron and possibly Roloson could be on the block. As I have said before, Roly should only be traded if a team such as the Sens offers a first round pick. It's not impossible, but I would not assume it. Weight, Sutton, Sim, and Park are all possible trading assets as well. If most or all of these players are traded, Schremp, Tambellini, and Comeau--to name a few--should all see more ice time. Joensuu and Mikko, if he's healthy, would be called up as well. There will likely be a few other Bridgeport boys who see action with the big club.
What should Garth's Draft Day strategy be? A lot depends on what happens on Deadline Day and on where we finish. Garth will obviously be in a much stronger position if he can pull off a trade getting us a second first round pick. If not, it will depend on what our draft position is and who is on the board when we pick. If we somehow get the #1 overall again, Taylor Hall is the obvious pick followed by the best defenseman available (possibly after a tradeup--Erik Gudbranson?). If not and if Cam Fowler is still on the board when we pick, we probably pick him and use the 2nd rounder for a forward like Victor Ohman if he's still available. If we get another first rounder or if neither Hall or Fowler are available, we should draft PF Nino Niederreiter, followed by the best available defender--possibly his Portland teammate Troy Rutkowski.
It was never really about this year but about assembling the core of a champion. We know that JT, Kyle, Josh, Matt, Hunts, DP, Jack, Andy and Mikko will likely be part of that core. Franz, Bergy, Blake, Jesse, and eventually Calvin, Travis, Jyri, Anders (Lee and Nilsson), Kirill, Matt D., and Aaron will probably join them. Who else? And what will the next Isle Cup winner look like? By next fall, we should have a pretty good idea. That's what this season is really about. The future and the Drive for Five.
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While I agree with you that, in the end, I don’t think the Isles will make the playoffs. I think you are putting the bar a little to high on how well they will have to play to stay in the race. It really is looking like maybe 85 to 88 points will get the 8th seed this year. Below are the projected standings at this point:
NJ – 120
BUF- 113
WAS- 112
PIT – 101
BOS- 95
NYR – 91
PHI- 88
OTT – 85 (8th place)
MTL – 84
NYI – 82
ATL – 82
TB – 82
FLA – 78
TOR – 70
CAR – 62
So as of right now, 85 Points would be in the playoffs if everyone keeps their pace up. Let’s say the conference plays a little better and 8th place moves up to 88 points. The Isles will need to get 42 points in their last 36 games. That would be 6 games over .500. So they would need to have any form of 6 more wins then regulation losses. Something realistic would be like a 18-12-6 record. Can they do this? Yes, I believe they can. But I wouldn’t bet the house on it.
Two things
- Montreal is currently in the 8th spot, Ottawa in the 7th. Philly is coming on strong and may well knock one of the current playoff teams out, but they are currently 9th.
- That may be how things project now, but I see the dynamics already starting to change and a separation developing between genuine contenders and also rans. I also suspect that Carolina will pull itself out of the basement with a surge. In any event, I believe that it will take 90 points or more to get in. You MIGHT have an 8 seed with 88 or 89.
Philly is in the 9th spot now, but they have played less games and MTL has played more then anyone. So Philly is on pace to have more points then MTL.
Obviously we don’t know how all the teams will play in the second half. Maybe you are right and 90 points will be the 8th seed. But nothing that I have seen from the bottom 8 to 10 teams in the Eastern Conference makes me think they will turn much around. The only team I can see turning it on is Philly. But as of now they are on pace to finish 7th.
You are assuming they will win their games in hand…and they might. If I had to bet on a team to fall out of the top 8, it would be the Rangers…and not just because I hate them. They are more lacking in depth than any of the other current playoff teams. In fact, they are an injury away from sinking into the bottom ten of even five. The other team I would watch out for is Atlanta. They have been in a deep slump lately, but I do not see that lasting. A lot will depend, of course, on the resolution of the Kovi soap opera, but I could also see them getting back into it. Florida might also jump back in. The current 8 minus the Rangers, plus Philly and maybe Atlanta and Florida. Those are your contenders.
I think you are confused at how I came to the projections. I just used simple math.
Montreal has 48 points in 47 games. If you multiply 48 by the total number of games (82) then divide by the number of games they have already played (47) you get the projection: (48×82)/47 = 83.7 which rounds up to 84
Philly has 47 points in 44 games. So there formula is (47×82)/44 = 87.5 which rounds up to 88.
It is just simple 9th grade math. I was not assuming Philly would win their games in hand.
The core
The way things are going in the East, the Isles could be bobbing up and down close to the playoff bubble through the deadline. A few losses always sends them low, a hot streak like this one always pulls them back up.
If that happens, I wonder if Snow will be as prone to sell off a veteran unless he gets a really good offer. Easier to tell your team, “Hey, we’re rebuilding” when they’re well short of a playoff spot than when they’ve fought all year to stay close. Snow’s in that funny position where he’s rebuilding, but says he doesn’t use that word and the club is gunning for the playoffs. Trade deadline has a way of reminding you you can’t have it both ways.
JT, Kyle, Josh, Matt, Hunts, DP, Jack, Andy and Mikko will likely be part of that core. Franz, Bergy, Blake, Jesse, and eventually Calvin, Travis, Jyri, Anders (Lee and Nilsson), Kirill, Matt D., and Aaron will probably join them. Who else?
Just going by the odds, I’m not counting on Joennsu, Niemi, Petrov or either Anders being part of the core of a serious contender. Hillen and MacDonald are big questions, as are DP and Mikko. A lot of variables that simply need time and opportunity; a lot of chips yet to fall. A start with Tavares, Okposo, Bailey and Nielsen bodes well though.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
Good point, Dom
It will be tough for Garth to navigate between building for the future and being concerned about the morale in the room. Of course, I listed the possible trade assets and whether they are traded will, of course, depend on what’s offered. In fact, if we did manage to pull off the trade with Ottawa I proposed, we might not need to make too many more apart from Sutton and Biron…and even then it would depend on what was offered.
As to the rest of your argument, DP is obviously part of the core for good or ill unless he retires. He did have a promising first start, so I am hopeful. I am VERY confident about Anders Lee. To my mind, Hillen and MacDonald have proven their worth and it is more a question of what pairing they will be on with future Isles teams. Given Mikko’s quick progression, I am very hopeful about him. Anders Nilsson will depend on how things go with DP and Mikko. I am very hopeful about Joensuu, Niemi, and Petrov. Finally, I would add Moulson, Hunts, and probably Bergy to the last bunch.
Yeah, I’m not saying those guys can’t happen, I just — you know me, I like to wait.
Hillen, MacDonald: I like most of what I’ve seen from them, I just remember that blueliners can look really nice for brief periods (Bruno last year, Campoli at various points in his career) and then turn out to be guys you leave behind. If they’re still around, they’ll be lower pairing pieces.
Koskinen — he was drafted two years late, so I’m wary of how quick his progression really is. Obviously his size is addictive and he may have figured out how to use it. But there’s just a lack of data there, and the hip surgery sets him back and adds another question mark. If he works out, that would be fantastic. Whether DP regains form or not, we’ll need trustworthy alternative.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
I don’t recall where everybody voted as to the point total expected this year, but I am happier than I thought I would be at the start of this season. I really want the Isles to make the playoffs, but I am scared of the consequences of the high muckety mucks getting itchy trigger fingers when the trade deadline approaches. I know there are a lot of trades that look like they could help on paper, but the amount we might have to give up could be scary.
Oh yea, and beat the wings!
/Note unceasing sarcastic laughter in background.
by burpchelischili on Jan 11, 2010 11:39 AM EST reply actions
Draft rankings
An update, at least as E.J. McGuire currently sees it:
“We’re splitting hairs,” Central Scouting Director E.J. McGuire told NHL.com. “What does a team need? That’s how close it is. Does a team need a right-shot center (Seguin)? There’s your answer. Does a team need a speedy left wing (Hall)? There’s your answer. Does your team need a defenseman (Fowler)? There’s your answer.”
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
yeah, I'd read where he'd said that...
several weeks ago….and I can only conclude—given that Nino is ranked 14th among NA skaters—that what came out today does NOT reflect what happened in the WJC at all. Of course, if Nino’s value to other teams was such that Garth could maybe move up with a second rounder and get him and use the first pick for Fowler, that would be ideal. Nino seems like a tough physical and talented PF who will go hard for the net AND the boards. I think we need someone like him more than Hall and hopefully Kirill will mature into an everyday player on second line RW.
Come clean
Alright, admit it — you’re getting a commission as Nino’s agent, aren’t you?
On the rankings: But does it make any sense to release prospect rankings after the WJC that do not reflect WJC performance?
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
dunno
but McGuire;s statement was out there before the WJC and, personal bias aside, it is really hard to imagine that they could have put him at #14 in NA after the WJC he had. Based on everything I have read, everyone was more impressed with him than just about anybody else. The ranking only makes sense to me if they had it locked before the WJC.
I had that impression, too — maybe it was in part “pleasantly surprised” talk? Tonight some of the talking heads sounded like these ranking reflect the WJC. But you never know with this stuff. It’s all aggregated opinion and judgment calls.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
to me
my bias aside…he was apparently exceptional over in Switzerland…he was lights out with Portland…and he probably had the single best performance of anybody in the WJC. You could make an argument for him being a top 5 overall or better. He certainly has to be in the NA Top Ten at least. Of course, if it means Garth can use the first pick for a defenseman and move up with the second to grab him, I won’t complain.
I can’t see the Isles having the assets to trade for another 1st rounder – so I think that is unlikely (unless it is very low in the 1st round). Hence, I think that Snow’s draft day strategy will be quite conservative compared to the last 2 years (trading up for de Haan and trading down to get more picks the year before).
If I recall correctly, Mirtle generally uses around 90-95 points as the cut-off for playoff (last year it was 93 points if I recall correctly).
I can’t see the Isles having the assets to trade for another 1st rounder – so I think that is unlikely (unless it is very low in the 1st round).
You are PROBABLY correct. The one scenario that makes some sense to me is if DP is lights out, Garth MIGHT be willing to part with Roly and I could see Murray up in Ottawa deciding that he cannot risk another non-playoff year. Because of cap considerations, I would include Sim and Cheechoo. We get Cheechoo and their first rounder along with either their fourth rounder or the 2nd rounder they got from SJ in the Heatley deal.
Failing that—and I admit it is a longshot—Garth would likely pick Hall or Fowler if available or trade down for somebody like Nino. If he has the assets, he might also trade up the second rounder.
Toskala got a 1st and two conditional 2nd’s
Vokoun got a 1st and two conditional 2nd’s
Mason got a 4th
Bryzgalov got waived
In recent times, the value of the goalie has gone down I would say. Hence, it is unlikely that Roloson will get anywhere near Toskala or Vokoun value. Further, Roloson is not a long term solution in goal for anyone – so there is no reason to break the bank. Hence, I would see a high 2nd round pick as being the roof (but probably a 3rd is more likely)
I know you like the draft class coming up, but due to this I would consider trying to get a defensive prospect or two in exchange for Roloson or Biron instead – as because the Isles have less D-prospects (and D-prospects take longer to develop), it is likely that the Isles forward line will be ready for a serious playoff run before the defense is.
The difference is
that none of those guys have taken their team to a Cup Final. I am not saying it will happen anyway. Just a thought.
Unless the “prospects” are can’t miss guys, I would take picks. I would like two really star potential picks from this draft.
You aren’t going to trade a can’t miss guy for Roloson and I think that beyond the first round you wouldn’t get a star potential pick anyhow. Also, teams would know that the draft is going to be deep and due to this would be hesitant to deal their picks. I just question that Snow wouldn’t be able to leverage a better deal by get a mid-/high-level prospect and possibly a mid-/low- draft pick for him (aka a slightly better return than for Garon, who was Roloson’s partner in net last year).
Also, goalies that have lead to cup finals are not the best goalies during the regular season, they are the goalies that catch fire – playoff victories are not really a good measurement of value. But, this is irrelevent as Roloson is old
Going for a prospect was your idea
I’m saying that the only way I’d favor it was if the prospect was a surefire NHLer and a possible star.
It would matter a great deal if he got them to the playoffs and got them on a deep run. That could help them keeping their FAs and attracting others. It would also encourage their fanbase. In fact, with the Leafs on their way to another in a long line of DNQs, they may steal some fans away. His Cup run wasn’t that long ago and he is one of the better goalies in the NHL this year. Plus they would only be committed to him through next year and they would be exchanging expensive empty sweater Cheechoo for Sim in the bargain…giving their checking line more punch.
If I recall correctly, Mirtle generally uses around 90-95 points as the cut-off for playoff (last year it was 93 points if I recall correctly).
That has been in years past, and he’ll adjust it during the year depending on how teams are doing.
Now this year might be a funny case with how many East teams are bad. But I can’t help figuring enough Eastern teams will go on a run to make 90-93 the cutoff same as most years. There have been more OT games this year so far, and if that continues, it’s bound to keep the playoff bar high.
Lighthouse Hockey: Under contract through 2021, knees and hips be damned.
well, if the isles keep playing well, and nino’s stock rises, we’ll have to trade up to get him, lol
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
doubt it unless
Garth uses our first pick on a defenseman. We will almost certainly have a Top Ten pick and with any kind of a post-deadline swoon a Top Five pick. If Nino is unavailable for our second pick, Victor Ohman of Malmo SEL is a similar type player—but will probably take much longer to become NHL-ready.
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Montreal
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Tue 02/07 | SO - W 1 - 0 |
Atlantic Standings
| GP | W | L | OTL | PT | |
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New York Rangers
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55 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 79 |
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Philadelphia
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56 | 31 | 18 | 7 | 69 |
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New York Islanders
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56 | 24 | 24 | 8 | 56 |
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