NHL bottom: What 70 points gets you since the lockout
by Dominik on Sep 16, 2009 5:06 PM EDT
in This, That & What-Not
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PrintThe guessing has begun here about how many points the Islanders might put up this season, and where such a figure will put them. Will they hit at least 70 points, a minimum nine-point improvement? Barring repeat health disasters, I'd think so -- which would probably still be good for a lottery shot at the #1 draft pick. More than that? 76? We'll see.
And if they're in the 70+ range, where does that put them in terms of lottery position next June? (Not to speak of the gallows before this season is even born, but...) To look at it another way, how many teams could the Islanders leapfrog this year? Post-lockout history says one NHL team is likely to bottom out -- to do what the Isles did last year and Philadelphia and St. Louis did previously, and not even make 70 points. Meanwhile, the other bottom five to seven teams typically finish somewhere between the high 60s to high 70s.
Will that be the case this year, or will it be like 2007-08, when the 29th and 30th place teams (the Lightning and Kings) each had 71 points, while the 24th and 25th place teams (Columbus and Toronto) actually eclipsed 80 points with OTL-tainted near-".500" records? If you're thinking ahead, speculating about who the Isles can pass and where they might finish, a look at the worst finishes since the lockout might help. Those historic standings -- and some questions -- after the jump...
| 2005-06 | 2006-07 | |||||
| STL | 21-46-15 | 57 | PHI | 22-48-12 | 56 | |
| PIT | 22-46-14 | 58 | PHX | 31-46-5 | 67 | |
| CHI | 26-43-13 | 65 | LA | 27-41-14 | 68 | |
| WAS | 29-41-12 | 70 | WAS | 31-42-9 | 70 | |
| BOS | 29-37-16 | 74 | CHI | 31-42-9 | 71 | |
| CBS | 35-43-4 | 74 | EDM | 32-43-7 | 71 | |
| NYI | 36-40-6 | 78 | CBS | 33-42-7 | 73 | |
| 2007-08 | 2008-09 | |||||
| TB | 31-42-9 | 71 | NYI | 26-47-9 | 61 | |
| LA | 32-43-7 | 71 | TB | 24-40-18 | 66 | |
| ATL | 34-40-8 | 76 | COL | 32-45-5 | 69 | |
| STL | 33-36-13 | 79 | ATL | 35-41-6 | 76 | |
| NYI | 35-38-9 | 79 | LAK | 34-37-7 | 79 | |
| CBS | 34-36-12 | 80 | PHX | 36-37-11 | 79 | |
| TOR | 36-35-11 | 83 | TOR | 34-35-13 | 81 | |
It's wildly early to speculate, but do you have a number in mind? And if you do, what rank do you think that will be good for? Without having more than a lick of training camp to go on, I'm betting they finish in the 70s, and they pass at least two teams. They're still in a tough division, though, and the East's other bottom-feeders seem better off than last year, so for me to bet on more than that will take some convincing. Stake your claim now, or ... wait until the next injury.
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I’m hoping for a good early half, with them surprising people who were used to taking nights off. I want them to stay somewhere from 10th to 12th in the confrence until the Trade deadline comes up and we trade Weight and Biron among others.
Hopefully the Isles end up in the bottom 5 or so, but I think most people would agree that with Tavares we have a possible superstar, and could really use a top ranked Dman prospect.
I’d think there is 6 definite playoff teams in the East. A lot of the other teams have had a lot of turnover or their own struggles. Hell, even Broduer is starting to look a little shaky.
I think the Isles can hit 80 points this year. They had 61 last year… if you add in that they can’t possibly be as injured as they were last year, there’s at least six more points. Throw in at least four more based on the fact that they’ve got real goalies this year. And I’d give eight points to the young guys playing better and gaining experience. Even 80 points would be a 19-point improvement, and that’s very difficult to achieve. But I think the Isles are capable of getting there, not to mention being a serious spoiler in the second half.
In considering this, I was as scientific as my addled brain can manage. If you bump up our guys last year’s production between 10-15%, add in 25 goals for JT, and reduce last year’s GA 10-15% and match it against teams in that range for 2008-09, we would be between 75-85 points. Then if you subtract 10 points for the blowback due to deadline deals, we are between 65 and 75 points. Based on this year’s standings, that puts us in either the #2 or #3 spot for the lottery—or, in other words, it gives us a decent chance to win the Taylor Hall sweepstakes.
I would still rather hit 100 this year.
SHOOOOOOOT IT!!!! Anon
by burpchelischili on Sep 17, 2009 6:28 AM EDT reply actions
I think 85 is probably the upper limit…unless we are on course for 85 at the deadline and Garth goes buy crazy and brings in some talent instead of selling. Even then, 90-95 would probably be as high as we would go.
Can’t blame a chili for hoping.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
My thought is with Garth. He has said he is not focused on winning, but on doing what he needs to do to move the development process along as fast as possible and as well as possible. In aperfect storm, it could happen that we are in the mix in late February and he decides to go for it. It probably is better, however, if he focuses on player development, trades away as many draft pick worthy veterans as he can, and sets the team up through the draft, trades, and FA to begin competing in 2010-11.
If it wasn’t clear, I am fully on board with this approach, too. Just joining in chelischili’s feigned optimism.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Just joining in chelischili’s feigned optimism.
Not feigned, just over the top,and overly biased dream.
SHOOOOOOOT IT!!!! Anon
by burpchelischili on Sep 19, 2009 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions
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1979-80
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May 24, 1980: Tonelli to Nystrom. At long last, the steady build of the New York Islanders from expansion doormat to surprise semifinalist to annual contender reaches the promised land: Buoyed by a late season trade for Butch Goring that gave the team the depth up the middle GM Bill Torrey had been seeking, the Islanders knock off the Philadelphia Flyers in six games.
The victory justified the faith in coach Al Arbour who guided them from their second season to their first Stanley Cup seven seasons later. The Islanders would not be the first expansion team to win the Stanley Cup, but they would be the only one capable of a dynasty.
1980-81
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May 21, 1981: This time it was much easier. After falling to "only" 91 points in the 1979-80 season, the Islanders returned to their division title tradition, piling up 110 points -- a whole 13 points over second-place Philadelphia.
Between the quarterfinals (where they beat the upstart Oilers in six games) and the finals, the Islanders reeled off eight consecutive wins -- with a four-game sweep of archrival Rangers in between. As they defeated the Minnesota North Stars in five games for their second Cup, their goal difference in the final was a combined +10.
1981-82
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May 16, 1982: Another year, another landslide title. The Islanders won the Patrick Division by a whopping 26 points over the second-place Rangers, and were seven points clear of their nearest competition for the President's Trophy, the still-not-quite-ripe Edmonton Oilers.
A first-round scare against the Pittsburgh Penguins turned in the Isles' favor thanks to John Tonelli's heroics, and a true dynasty was on its way: Past the Rangers in six games, then an eight-game sweep of the Quebec Nordiques and Vancouver Canucks to run away with the Stanley Cup.
1982-83
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May 17, 1983: Not so fast, whipper-snappers. The Edmonton Oilers' steadily rising challenge for league supremacy took them all the way to the finals for the first time, where the New York Islanders summarily dispatched them in a four-game sweep. For the Islanders, the Dynasty was secured. For the Oilers, it was a powerful lesson in where talent ends and the demands of playoff hockey begin.
Four years, four Cups, 16 consecutive playoff series wins (a record that would grow to 19 until the rematch with the Oilers the following year). Mike Bossy scored 60 goals yet again, and Wayne Gretzky became acquainted with Billy Smith's crease.
