Puck Prospectus on the Islanders

Excellent topic for a FanPost! Thanks for bringing it up.

It is, it’s interesting — and the Prospectus approach is overdue in hockey. In a vacuum, why bother getting decent goalies if you’re virtually assured of missing the playoffs, right?

But these analyses never account for the actual business of running a club. There is a fine line between embracing a patient rebuild and outright insulting your fans. Many fans are open to the rebuild — to watching the youngsters grow on the job — but I think they’d be turned off by a repeat of last year, by the presence of unproven ‘keepers who dilute the confidence and development of the prospects who we hope will form the Isles’ core. Simply, they needed to get decent goaltending, and if that “costs” them Hall, so be it.

I actually really appreciate stat projections like these, but the projection of Bailey for 29 pts. also hints at how these numeric exercises can fall well short of observation. After watching him last year and making reasonable assumptions at what he’s learned, I’ll eat my hat if Bailey doesn’t even break 30.

Meanwhile, “Essentially no forwards of any note,” they say? Not even taking it personally, I’m not sure what to make of that. Because if Okposo, Bailey and even Bergenheim/Nielsen aren’t of any note, I’m not sure what game I’m watching. Even if the latter two don’t pan out, they’re sure as hell worth watching for the try.

…while Freddy Meyer and Brendan Witt in particular should be ex-Isled as soon as possible.

Ex-Isled!?! Really? Ugh.

Dom and AP have made most of the points I would make already. As AP has said, stat projections like this, while useful for a mostly veteran team like the Wings, are absolutely useless with an almost entirely developing young team like the Isles. Even “veteran” players like Hunter, Bergenheim, and Nielsen still have unexplored upside.

As to Dom’s point about not driving away the fans, I would agree but would go a step further. On a developing young team, the worst thing a GM can do is either give the players an out for losing by using goaltending as an excuse or feel that their best efforts will be for naught because of the goaltending. They should know that when they play well, they are likely to win and vice versa.

One thing that I do not think anyone picked up on is that 79 points and the GF and GA are not unreasonable if you assume a modest improvement on offense and defense and no real breakout seasons. The problem is that 79 points does not put the Isles anywhere near 30th based on this year’s standings. It puts us about the 5th or 6th from the bottom. Perhaps if we trade Weight, Sutton, Biron, and maybe Park at the deadline, we might slip a bit to the third or fourth spot.

Of course, this assumes certain things. It assumes that players like Tavares, Okposo, Bailey, and Bergenheim don’t have absolutely knock-em dead breakout seasons. It also assumes that there are no major contributions from prospects like Joensuu, Figren, or Smith. And, of course, it assumes that DP will either not return or will not be very effective. If any or all of the above happen, all of these projections can safely be tossed out of the window. If all of them happen, the Isles might even compete for a playoff spot.

Assuming they don’t, however, the 3rd or 4th spot does leave us in position to leap-frog ahead to the #1 overall in the lottery. If we were to be in that position, however, Taylor Hall is NOT the player we need. Cam Fowler is.

To be sure of getting Fowler, we would probably need to be in the #3 spot. The only way I would favor using the #1 overall for Hall is if we were able to swing the trade I suggested with Anaheim trading Sutton for the first rounder they acquired from Philly for Pronger AND trading up to the #3 spot or close to it. Then we could draft Hall and Fowler and that would be about as perfect a draft as anyone could hope for. I do not, however, see that happening.

If we do get the #1 overall, we should look to trade down to the #3 spot. My guess is that if we win the lottery, it will be by leapfrogging over the Avs, the Coyotes, and maybe Atlanta. It would be ideal if the Coyotes were in the #3 spot. If we did get the first rounder from Anaheim, I would ask for defensive prospect Chris Summers. If we did not, I would ask for the first rounder from Calgary. My target with the second first round pick would be to move up high enough to get Teemu or, failing that, Victor Ohman.

The ideal outcome of the 2010 draft, maybe even better than Hall and Fowler, would be Fowler, Summers, and Pulkinnen. If we don’t get the #1 overall and we don’t get Anaheim’s first rounder, we will have to just focus on getting Fowler and some prospects. And, OBTW, this fellow doing the projections—-I have to say that his more subjective comments sound an awful lot like those we all hear from Ranger fans. I am betting that is what he is.

This really helps Ottawa. Depending on how well Michalek and Cheechoo perform, they might compete for a playoff spot. I’m guessing them to finish somewhere between 12 and 16 as to draft position. As for SJ, this confirms them as a very talented team that will never win anything.

I am posting this here because I think it may play a role in some deadline deals and draft positions. Since LA did not figure in this deal as rumored, I suspect that—if they are in the mix at the deadline—they will make a move for either Richards or Kovalchuk. In fact, I believe that, along with the Avs, Coyotes, and possibly the Islanders, Dallas and Atlanta will round out the top five in the draft.

A few of you brought this up, but that’s a point worth emphasizing: The Isles’ projection of 79 points is the lowest their VUKOTA system came up with, but it’s not realistic to expect the 30th place team to have that many. Toronto is next on their projections, with 81. Some team is going to bottom out this season, and no way will they and their fellow bottom-outers be pushing 80 pts.

There’s either a strange inflation in their projection system, or it just cannot account for the beyond-the-roster bad luck (injuries, poor years, failed rookies) that causes last place seasons.

I caught this a little late, but how can they predict that the Islanders can be worse offensively?

Last season they managed a .68 goal ratio during 5 on 5 play. A number so bad that the next two lowest goal ratio during 5 on 5 are .75 and .82. In the matter of 2 spots it jumps 14 points. The PP and PK were in the bottom 3rd of the league but that is still better then their 5on5 play. So basically the team would actually have to manage to either somehow get even worse on either 5on5 or PP while having much improved goaltending. When your on the Ice, playing hard and Danis or MacDonald lets in one or two soft rebounds in a row, how quick do you get discouraged? I think its going to be a different year just based on better goaltending at the very least.

I think the next two teams on their list are easily going to be much worse then the Isles. Anyone that thinks the Leafs are doing anything is in for a shock. And who in their Right Mind thinks the Coyotes are going to put up any sort of fight?

To get Kovi, they might. Waddell might not want to totally destroy his team’s chances to keep fans coming and Lombardi might not want to give up too many picks and prospects.

Atlanta MIGHT be on a pace to surpass their 2008-09 point total (76 points) before trading Kovi. Let’s say they might have attained 80-85 points WITH Kovi. It isn’t unreasonable to suppose that losing Kovi without getting Frolov back might cost them 10 points to bring them to 70-75 points—or exactly where they were at the end of this year. In fact, with 69 points, they have the #3 overall.

I suspect that talks will drag on until the week or so before the deadline. If they don’t seem likely to make the playoffs, he will push for a trade.