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Meet your new Islanders via the Cycle Like Sedins re-draft

Here's a post I've been meaning to do for a while, but it gets more complete the longer I wait. (Funny thing about writing about hockey every day: You have more ideas than you have time, but sometimes when you have time you don't want to tackle the ideas you have.)

James O'Brien, who runs Cycle Like Sedins and contributes at Battle of California, was inspired by some sort of self-loathing to create a suicidal summer project for himself: What if the entire league's pool of players were thrown into the pot and redrafted, keeping their existing salaries but going to new teams?

It sounds a lot like a simple fantasy draft, except there are 30 teams. Which means 30 different GMs. Going 20-23 players deep per roster. This is a thorough reshuffling (and an administrative headache for James and a few other invaluable helpers). And the evaluation will be, in part, based on an EA Sports NHL 10 simulation (that will be my downfall). There is talk of having the rosters evaluated by stat wonks, too.

When James invited me to represent the Islanders, I didn't think twice. If only I'd known: The pressure! It's one thing to pick a fantasy roster for "Bossy's Bombers;" it's another to rationally pick players around the league and bestow upon them the blessed label, "Islanders" -- even if only in make-believe land.

We're through 10 rounds now. Check out some of "your" new "Islanders" -- plus my rationale and excuses -- after the jump.

Star-divide

Through 10 Rounds, Your New New York Islanders (see all league picks here):

Daniel Sedin ($6.1 million) -- David Backes ($2.5 million) -- Kyle Okposo ($1,671,666)
David Perron ($918,333) -- Rich Peverley ($487,500) -- xx
Paul Kariya ($6 million) -- xx -- xx

Nicklas Lidstrom ($7.45 million) -- Alex Goligoski ($1.833 million)
Denis Grebeshkov ($3.15 million) (sorry Doug) -- xx

Tomas Vokoun ($5.7 million)

Some caveats and rules

The order. Snake-like. I don't remember how James arrived at the draft order, but it sort of had to do with market size and opportunity, I think. Regardless, it's in a snake fashion, so the "Islanders" picked 6th overall in the first (I took Lidstrom) and then sixth from the end (25th, or #55 overall: I took the underrated Vokoun) of the second round. Imagine a fantasy draft where your 2nd pick was the 55th-best player in the league.

There's a cap, but the world ends after this season. While each player's current cap hit counts as their salary -- and we are limited to this season's $56.8 million cap -- we were instructed to think of this season only. So Hossa-types are fine and in fact ideal, because there are no long-term consequences. And the Islanders strike it rich, because suddenly we can go to the cap ceiling instead of the cap floor. (As one poster quipped after my Lidstrom pick: "They've got one player, and already they're better than the real Islanders.")

The EA simulation thing: That's what will sink me, but I don't care. With a lot of my picks, I know I chose young players I thought would ramp up their production this year, thinking of how to piece together a perfect, cap-clearing package. But that's more of a fantasy draft ideal than a video game ideal. It's been six years since I bought an NHL video game, but last time I played they rated more on the previous season than the upcoming one. Uh-oh. Oh well, in the laboratory of life, I still like my team.

Coordinating 30 (mostly) employed people to pick in an orderly fashion leads to some odd consequences. We're doing this via message board and email, and we're spread across at least four time zones (not sure if Alaska is represented), That means there have been slow days where only one or two picks were made, and there have been hours where six picks were made. Occasionally, someone picks an already drafted player and things crash to a halt. Less occasionally, someone picks an already drafted player twice with the same pick (Hint: His name rhymes with BootySmelly).

Worse, though: Occasionally your pick comes up after you've just returned home from a night of -- how shall we call it? -- drinking enough alcohol to kill a small equine animal. Which means you pick someone with your brilliant fantasy "he's gonna come back and surprise" cap on, disregarding the fact salary matters here. (I'm looking at my 4th-round pick, #115, Paul Kariya, due a cool $6 million after missing most of last year with hip surgery.) And sometimes your pick is up when your between weekend pool parties, and you don't want to hold things up but you don't know who to pick because you were too crazy to make a list. That hasn't happened to me yet, because I don't have any friends -- and if I did, they'd probably have really disgusting pools.

Some observations on fantasy GM behavior

The coolest thing about this draft so far, though? When you open it up to 30 teams, you really, really don't have a clue what everyone else is going to do, which creates some interesting decisions. You start to see parallels to the real world, like when there's suddenly a run on defensemen even though there are very good forwards left on the board (I'm reminded of the real-world Islanders using their third and fourth picks (2nd and 3rd rounds) this summer on goaltenders: They might not have rated those goalies at those spots, but it's too hard to tell when the goalies will fall off the board.)

So for most "GMs," you have two picks relatively close together, followed by a long wait until the next one. That means you not only think about what you need, but you get paranoid about what assets might be off the board by the time you pick again, some 40 or so picks later. If you're eyeing a particular scorer, but you notice all the first and second-tier defensemen are disappearing, you might be inclined to pick a blueliner now so that you don't end up with Wade Redden on your top pair.

Add to all of this the cap element: I sort of screwed up by taking high-dollar targets early (Lidstrom-Sedin-Vokoun), but I was trying to make sure I had at least one "stud" at each of the three positions. (Taking Lidstrom at #6 was also probably a "real-world" gaffe, as I was thinking about building my ideal real-life team rather than building a team that an EA Sports simulation would find sexy. Taking Vokoun was pricey but necessary, as goalies were starting to disappear, and he was one of the top five goalies in the league last year ... DID YOU HEAR THAT, EA SPORTS?)

So anyway, loading up on big salaries early meant I needed to dial back later on, which is how I ended up with Kyle Okposo (no worries), David Perron (should have a great year, even on EA), and Rich Peverley, an anonymous minimum-salary center who put up points at a great rate after being picked up by the Thrashers mid-way through last season. (Again, though, Peverley's production probably won't impress EA.)

We're all homers: Then you have the fact that we all really like our real-world teams, warts and all, which means we'll probably overvalue a few guys and "steal" a few others. I don't think I reached on Okposo in the 7th at #186 -- and there's no one else of interest yet on the Isles (Streit at #63 and Tavares at #122 were taken early) -- but I've taken a few Blues, my other NHL favorite, at spots others might not have. Perron (6th, #175) was smart; Kariya (#115) not so much, even though I think he'll have a big year. Backes is still a rising, 30-goal unknown to many, but at $2.5 million he's not a rookie-level steal but still likely a bargain.

Oh, and I wouldn't have picked the back-injury (now knee-, too) submarined Eric Brewer for a $4.25 million hit, but someone did. But it's really hard to stay on top of all the local team news for a 30-team league -- and if you're lazy like me and never got around to creating an actual wish list, you can really be scratching in the dark.

Ultimately, I think I'm doing okay so far. I had to grab at least one Islander to make it all feel right. When it gets to the late rounds, it should be really amusing as people pick through scraps. And once all the teams' rosters are set, it will be fun to see how everyone did. But right now, I have no idea what the other teams look like. That's a suicidal project for someone else's summer.

Feedback

I know stuff like this can be pretty dull if you're not involved, which is why I saved this post for the weekend. But I will post updates later as the draft goes deeper. So if you're a fantasy (or video game) geek, or if you just want to shoot the breeze about this high-dollar Islanders squad, by all means weigh in. Tell me what I did wrong. Give me hell -- I'm in the Milbury perch, after all, and I might just deserve what you're hurling.

0 recs  |  Comment 12 comments |

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I'm a hockey fan first

and an Islander fan second so the idea of doing a fantasy style draft with an eye to a simulated experience on a video game is quite interesting. I will say this, a lot of your picks I would agree with, although some I wouldn’t. I like the forwards but the defense, to me at least, looks suspect. Considering it’s only one year I like the pick of Lidstrom, however I’m wondering if Phaneuf (sp? sorry really bad with name spellings sometimes and hockey tends to exaggerate that fact) was still on the board at that point. What I find rather interesting is that in the later rounds when most of the GMs are going to be scratching their heads trying to figure out which role players to take you should be sitting rather pretty looking at the Islanders last season roster where they had a lot of role players but lacked that one or two stud forwards to finish it all off. I’ll definitely be looking forward to the next post about this.

by IDCWhoYouLike on Aug 29, 2009 4:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, will do.

Phaneuf was still on the board, but for one year — and considering Phaneuf really struggled last year — I was going with the grand prize. But I really have no idea how the video game simulation will treat defenseman. At this point, the squad lacks blueline beef, but I’m of the view you don’t pay a premium for defenseman unless they put up points. At each spot I picked a blueliner (rather late, considering I was stockpiling forwards), Goligoski and Grebeshkov were among the better scoring blueliners.

(But then I also selected them thinking their offensive production would increase this year, and I’m not sure EA Sports cares about that — much less agrees.)

It’s funny, the whole process leads you to second-guess yourself, because when you’re weighing a pick, there’s a good chance whoever you pass on won’t be there 40-some picks later.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 29, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One of the reasons I have never liked snake type systems in a draft, at least not when I’m playing a hockey game lol. I tend to equate defensemen like shortstops, first basemen and third basemen in baseball. It’s great to have an offensive defense man on each line, but I like to pair them with defensive ones. My thought in that regard is that I don’t want to leave the goalie, especially in video games where scoring is usually not at a premium, completely naked. However, it all comes down to the simulation itself which you will have no idea about until the game is released. I don’t know if you have a PS3 or an X-Box 360 but you might want to see if they have a demo of NHL 10 on there, I know the PS3 does that you can download for free. Just a thought to give you an idea of how they are rating the players.

by IDCWhoYouLike on Aug 30, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sadly, I own neither a PS3 nor XBox. My last advance was PS2, bought used, so I could play NHL 04 and FIFA 04, whose seasons I never even completed. I can’t seem to squeeze out the time to play them — at least not the way I want to, going into full seasons and franchise mode.

Obviously this makes me a crap candidate to draft an EA-judged team, but I couldn’t resist…

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 30, 2009 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ever try Eastside Hockey Manager? I mean the Freeware verison, not the newer ones put out by Sega. You can run a season pretty quickly. Theres only two glaring problems, the AI not signing its prospects (players who are drafted when they are 17) and that you can eventually offer enough scraps and less then blue chip prospects to a team for its superstars.

by WebBard on Aug 30, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’ve heard of it but never tried it. My gaming practices typically were a fantasy correction of the damned real-world outcomes: So I’d make only the trades that really happened, and I’d keep the Islanders as is (even though it killed me to make Milbury’s trades), but then I’d “coach” them to win the Cup somehow.

Of course, it didn’t hurt that when I had to create a Tommy Salo or Jorgen Jonsson because they weren’t in the game yet, I made them miles better than their real-world counterparts. (Hey, I had to trust the scouts in my head.)

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 30, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

One day, someone will have to explain to me this absolute love affair with Denis Grebeshkov on here…LOL! I’m guessing Streit was already taken and you were looking at 3-4 d-man. Goligoski is solid but for some reason I just can’t wrap my head around DG at $3.15 mil really getting the job done. Of course this is simply IMHO, so take it with a grain of salt.

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by IslesOfficial on Aug 30, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ha, I’ll leave the love affair to BCISLE, but I do have a respect for DG from what I’ve seen and read. Lowetide has been high on him, and Lowetide doesn’t typically give out blue stars just for effort.

It hurt me to take him at that salary, but like you assumed, Streit (and many, many other offensive D) were already gone at that point. That’s another thing about a 30-team draft: It’s so large and unwieldy, it’s hard to even keep straight who’s where, who’s on the board, what positions are gone. A grand draft board wish chart would’ve helped me but … yeah, lazy.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 30, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How long till the Sedins start crying since they aren’t playing together?

I hate snake order drafts btw. When I was coaching youth hockey I had to argue with the commissioner for 2 hours that the NHL does not run a snake draft. The team that won the championship had convinced him that the NHL does do a snake type draft because obviously they wanted 2 1st round picks.

by WebBard on Aug 30, 2009 2:46 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Sedins actually dropped pretty far perhaps for that reason. It’s almost like no one wanted to separate them for fear of being stuck with a player who’s wondertwin powers were destroyed. Hopefully EA doesn’t factor that in.

It was tough: The snake draft seemed like the best option rather than sticking someone with the 30th and 60th best NHLer while someone else got 1st and 31st.

That commissioner you dealt with sounds like a sharp guy.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 30, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This one duo of coaches had been in the league forever and won the championship on a yearly basis. Since it was all about squeezing in as many seasons as possible (it was inside a bubble) they would have the first round of the playoffs be a one game elimination. One season in the last game of the season the star player on the champs team got into a fight. Everything we had said it should be a 3 game suspension. I argued that it should be a 3 game suspension, but because the coaches of the two kids who got caught fighting were on the board too they outvoted me and decided on a one game suspension. I figured no big deal anyway because we were playing the champs in the first round one game elimination and their star would be out for it anyway and we’d win.

I get to the rink for the first game and the commissioner in all his glory informs me that he’s decided to make the first round a best of three so the kids could get their moneys worth on the season. It was obvious that the guys that coached the champs spent two hours begging him to give them a break. I was so pissed off that it was the only game I ever told my kids to force the mercy rule. We won 10-0 without playing the 3rd period, and thankfully it was all the momentum my kids needed as they won game two 5-2, becoming the first team in years to knock off the champs in the playoffs.

by WebBard on Aug 30, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is amazing. And frightening. Man, ugliness happens when people act out their repressed sporting fantasies through their kids.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Aug 30, 2009 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 C 10/2/1989 188 6-1
Sean Bergenheim 20 LW 2/8/1984 205 5-10
Martin Biron 43 G 8/15/1977 180 6-3
Blake Comeau 57 RW 2/18/1986 207 6-1
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Trevor Gillies 14 LW 1/30/1979 215 6-3
Jack Hillen 38 D 1/24/1986 200 5-11
Trent Hunter 7 RW 7/5/1980 210 6-3
Tim Jackman 28 RW 11/14/1981 210 6-4
Dustin Kohn 56 D 2/2/1987 200 6-2
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 188 6-1
Matt Martin 46 LW 3/8/1989 192 6-2
Freddy Meyer 44 D 1/4/1981 192 5-10
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 206 6-1
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 172 5-11
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 200 6-1
Richard Park 10 RW 5/27/1976 190 5-11
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 195 6-0
Dwayne Roloson 30 G 10/12/1969 180 6-1
Jon Sim 16 LW 9/29/1977 195 5-10
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
Jeff Tambellini 15 LW 4/13/1984 186 5-11
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 195 6-0

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