Snow's Rebuilding Tipping Point
Editor's Note: Front-paging a thought-provoking FanPost here, on one of my favorite topics: Rebuilding is easy (well, not easy, but the design is clear-cut); the hard part is figuring what to do when the draft pick collecting days are over and you have to define the core of your team? After the jump, several questions about the Islanders future and how to get there...
It seems that since the Yashin/Peca acquisition there were three groups of fans:
1) Those that felt the best way to build a team was through the draft.
2) Those that felt the best way to build a team was through UFA signings.
3) Those that felt you built a team buy incorporating a mixture of both.
Today it seems that Group 1 has pretty much one that argument. The absolute failure of going out and trading draft picks and prospects or established stars (or sub star quality players has been duly noted i the cases of Yashin and Satan) is evident in the failures of this team from 01/02 - 05/06. Those teams were lacking in skill and led by players who were clearly on the downsides of their careers. It was a long and torturous period trying to compliment players that clearly just didn't have it.
The results of those years speak for themselves.
This team as now constructed is realization of those failures. The patchwork signings of Fedotenko, Guerin and Comrie followed by the exodus of Ryan Smyth and the Yashin buyout further establish that the best way to build a contender is the long and slow process of drafting. Not only do you develop better skill players but you also build a team that has chemistry and hopefully a groups that cares about each other on the ice.
I am glad to see that Snow has gotten high marks thus far by the fans for being patient, not parting with assets and standing firm with his plan to rebuild this franchise. The rebuild portion through the draft where he compiles tons of draft picks for veterans is reaching it's petering out point and is now reaching a new tipping point. Harder decisions now have to be made:
1) Doug Weight and Brendan Witt being two of the more reliable veterans on this team. It's clear Weight is not going to be here to start the 10/11 campaign. Witt is an aging vet on a blue line that needs to get younger, bigger and yes, much more mobile.
Do you move Weight for picks at this point or do you look to acquire prospects?
Question regarding Witt. He's you're wisest vet on the Blue Line but also your most movable assett. With Hamonic, Ness, Donnovan and Dehaan waiting in the wings do you hold out or look to move him now for maximal return? Which is more valuable to this team? His leadership or the possible return?
2) Trent Hunter. In my opinion his career has been mediocre here thus far. Hasn't been the kind of player we expected after his first few years here but not exactly terrible when you consider he really is a third line guy anyways. He's just turned 29 as of July 5th this year and that opens up questions now as to where he fits three-four years down the line when this team is set to contend for a playoff spot.
I know I'm speaking blasphemy on this as he is a fan favorite and this move me into more troubled waters with the next guy;
3) Sean Bergenheim. Probably one of the better equiped players on the team to handle Gordon's system and one of my favorite amongst the kids. Very exciting to watch when he is on. Here's my issue with him; Bergenheim, just who the hell are you? What kind of player are you going to be? That's a tough spot to be in when you're 25 in the final year of a contract. Hard to determine contract length and amount.
4) Jeff Tambellini. Biggest enigma on the team ala Kvasha, Isbister. Even less established as to what kind of player he will pan out to be than Bergenheim. Some use him as an excuse that Nolan was right and this kid doesn't have it. I'm not so sure I buy that argument though. I think when developing a prospect you have to work them in at the right time. I think it could also be a question of keeping this guy stuffed in the minors for too long whereas a player gets stuck on established tricks at that level that don't work on the NHL level. They become less flexible and more entrenched.
All that aside, this year is it for Jeff, Time to put up or shut up. Can't really look at the past. This guy has a world class wrist shot and should use as much as possible. It's really his only chance to get an extension.
So those are two mid career guys and two nearing the end. There are some I've overlooked but those four look to be the ones where the big decisions have to be made.
Now on to Garth Snow and some questions that need answering.
1) How do you plan on transitioning this blue line? Let's face facts, when this team is finally contending, there no way Witt, Sutton, Streit, Martinek and Meyer will be wearing Islanders sweaters at that point. That leaves us with Gervaise and Hillen.
How do plan on pulling in young Dmen that are going to peak at the same time as the forwards?
... Which leads us to this:
2) Snow has proven that he can make trades for picks. How about prospects?
I'm not talking about trades for guys like Walter (who guarantee everyone is going to be watching to see if you made a mistake allowing him to walk on you) but those upper tier prospects. Ya know, those guys teams give away when they get all giddy while on the playoff bubble.
The days are gone where Snow has tons of throwaway assets to acqiure 1st-3rd round picks.
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The Blueline
Looking at our prospects, this must be the hope
De Haan can take over for Streit as an offensive minded Dman and powerplay QB.
Ness can turn into a 2nd line offensive Dman
Hamnoic can be a solid 3rd line Defensive Dman with size.
I think it's really hard to say where these guys end up
don’t get me wrong, all signs look good for these guys.
In the case of Hamonic, who I think probably should top Ness as the Isles best prospect, he put up good numbers on a very bad Moose Jaw team. What that suggests is that yes, he can put up numbers. The problem is that they are all in meaningless games. You really like to see a kid like that play in some meaningful competition to see how he performs under pressure.
DeHaan is still really young. Has really good tools, vision and a mind for the game. I don’t think he should be rushed into the NHL this season and could use the extra year in Juniors. Guy needs to put on some pounds as his physical one on one play is problematic. Guys need time to get used to putting on that xtra weight.
Biggest problem we had with Campolli was that he refused to do that. Mainly out of fear for what it would do to his game. He would come to camp taking a few pounds off!!!!
Ness might be the closest in that goup to being NHL ready and that’s another season or so down the line. Would worries me is that when this guy is fully developed, that’s if he gets that far, four – five seasons from now guys like Tavares and Bailey with be about three seasons from UFA status. That leaves us a three to four year window to win with all these picks.
I’d like to see Snow try swing a deal for some prospects at some point.
Great Fanpost
Love this topic, probably because it’s so wide open and perfect for napkin sketching.
Weight: I think is trade value, if there is any, will come around deadline time — or sooner if the youngsters pinch him for ice time.
Witt: I’m fine dealing him at any point if an offer arrives (but he’s a tough-to-move salary when everyone is cap-tight). If he lasts, I won’t mind his “warrior” presence — as long as he improves on last year.
Hunter: Heh, fan favorite or not, I don’t mind entertaining the thought of dealing him. His value to me, though, is the kind of player he is at that salary. Sort of a known, loyal quantity for just $2 million. But I agree by the end of his contract, his hit-heavy style may have taken a toll on his body and put him past his peak.
Bergenheim: His upcoming contract frightens me: If he shines this year, I fear he’ll want too much, and if he has an unproductive year, I fear we’ll pay too much. But I expect he — more than any of the “what is he?” guys — will come into his own this season and realize his potential.
On the blueline, I tend to agree with WebBard above, though I hope Streit and De Haan share the same blueline at some point, and I’m counting on Snow picking up some blueline upgrades either through free agency or cap trades late this season/next summer. That’d be the only way I could rationalize making no blueline changes this summer.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Weight, assuming he has a productive season, might well be good for a second rounder at the deadline. Forget about trading Witt or Martinek this season, They might seem attractive rentals for picks next season.
As I have posted elsewhere, Hunter isn’t going anywhere. Garth has called him a “core” player and Logan told me that he would not be traded in such a way that made me think that he’d gotten that straight from Garth. To me, this is just as well since I believe that Hunts would be the ideal linemate for JT.
Bergy will be fine. I am anticipating that he, along with Kyle, Josh, Franz, and maybe Blake and Jesse too will have breakout seasons. It will be interesting to see Figren, Moulson, and some of the other prospects get their shots. If Tambellini finally plays to his potential and all these others click as well, Garth could be faced with an interesting dilemma.
I hope that Garth will sign Skoula and Babchuk before the season starts. Babchuk will make our PP deadlier and make it easier for our forwards to maneuver. Skoula will make it easier to move Sutton for a pick or a younger player at the deadline. I favor moving younger defensemen in now and this summer, signing them to two to three year deals, and thus not rushing our prospects in their development. For example, Hamonic may be about ready, but I think Ness is two years away, not one. Skoula can be traded for a pick when we have a current prospect ready to fill his spot. Babchuk could evolve into our 2nd unit PP QB of the present and future. We should look at Mark Stuart of Boston and Denis Grebeschkov of Edmonton this summer if their teams do not sign them to extensions first. And unless we are in a position to draft either Hall, Kabanov, or Pulkinnen with our first pick, I would favor drafting a defenseman like Cam Fowler instead of a forward.
I think Garth will sign one more defenseman at least. We only have seven defenders currently on our roster—none of whom played in all 82 last season and only one of whom(Mark Streit) played in more than 65 games. The pairing of Sutton and Meyer combined for a grand total of 50 games played. I think he will at least sign one more to get our roster filled out. If it is only one more, it should be Babchuk. Signing Skoula as well would give Hillen a chance to get more seasoning in Bridgeport (which I think he needs). With the injury track record of our defensive roster, I am confident that he and any other NHL-ready prospects will get callups.
Resetting the Typewriter
Now that we’ve proven the right margin works, let’s get back to business.
BC for once I agree with you. Amazing, I know.
Calvin deHaan even said himself that it will be at least another year or two before he will feel comfortable making the jump to the NHL. When we were at the Draft in Montreal [that one was for you, Dom ;-) ], he seemed pretty adamant about staying in junior and getting top pairing minutes rather than ride the pine in the NHL.
Kulikov would have been nice, without a doubt. I was rooting for him to go much higher than he actually did. But from conversations around Montreal after the 2nd day was over with many hockey personalities (not just Islander ones), everyone seemed to be in agreement about two things:
A) The Islanders were the winner of the first round in terms of talent they acquired and
B) Their move to take deHaan was widely praised as the most bold and perhaps the most fruitful move of any of the teams on the Draft floor.
Allow me to explain.
Calvin was very highly regarded by at least 15 teams going into the Draft. Despite his low 20’s ranking from Central Scouting, there were a lot of teams looking to take him much earlier than that. The Islanders identified a player that in his rookie campaign in the OHL scored 8 goals and 55 assists. A very impressive amount of production for someone who was supposed to be growing into a role on a rebuilding Oshawa team. Scouts love his potential because he still has yet to grow into his frame. When he’s completely filled out he’ll most likely be between 6’1"-6’2" and 190-205lbs; the prototypical new NHL defenseman.
(Side note: Hey, aren’t those the same height and weight numbers for another defensemen the Isles have the potential to sign as a UFA? Hmm…Dennis Seidenberg?)
As far as this season goes, Calvin will quite likely spend the first 9 games up with the big club. I don’t see any reason why the Islanders wouldn’t give the kid a taste to see how he reacts. His skating ability is on par or better with most defensemen I’ve seen at the NHL level and his hockey sense and decision-making abilities are top notch. He should be fun to watch being reunited with an old teammate…John Tavares.
In reading your comment that the Islanders have no NHL-ready defensemen outside of Jack Hillen, I challenge you to really look at the Bridgeport roster. Both Andy MacDonald (an AHL All-Star last season) and Dustin Kohn, just to name two are more than capable of growing into an NHL role by mid-season. Don’t be surprised to see one or the other up at times this season. I’m still going to hold to the credo that going out and getting someone like Babchuk is way too Milbury-esque and would hurt the rebuild more than help it. To use one your quotes:
Babchuk is not just a missing piece, he is a diamond in the rough, the kind of promising developing talent that Carolina doesn’t have time for and that could be just what we need to inject some raw young talent into our blueline.
You know, that sounds awfully familiar. I wonder where I’ve heard that before. Oh, that’s right, when Mike Milbury was describing his love affair with…Oleg Kvasha.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
Two points:
I’m not talking about a love affair or investing a lot in terms of time, money, or assets. I’m talking about a player who put up numbers comparable to our best defenseman, Mark Streit, last year. I’m talking about offering him a $1.5 mil deal for one year. If he accepts, offer Carolina one of our two 2010 third rounders. If either of those offers are rejected, pass. But if those offers are accepted and he puts up those numbers again and maybe our coaching staff displays more patience than Carolina’s and he learns to use his projectable frame effectively in the defensive zone…not only will our PP be vastly improved, but maybe our whole offense. Maybe we will have snagged a diamond in the rough and turned him into a megastar for the price relatively of pocket change in terms of assets and money.
Could be that those players or maybe, as another poster suggested, Hamonic are ready by mid-season. But we are one short on defensemen NOW, we may well look to trade Sutton at the deadline, and we have a VERY injury-prone defensive corps. I am hoping that Garth will make a move or two to bolster the D before October.
As to DeHaan, I hope that you are right. I hope that in five years we all say, “Gee, I am glad that Garth and Ryan picked him instead of Kulikov.” I do remember the gleam in Bill T.‘s eyes when he was talking about Kulikov, however, and I know what I saw on the ice last year during the Canadian junior playoffs, and I know what I have read about Kulikov. I expect him to be competing with JT and Big Victor for the Calder this year. Wouldn’t it have been something to have had TWO serious contenders for the Calder on our roster?!
Update: Babchuk has fired his agent
Rutherford still looking to trade him, in return for “a young defenseman.”
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

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