Comparing Islanders prospect Top 5 lists
by Dominik on Aug 19, 2009 3:37 PM EDT
in Islanders in Diapers
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PrintSince hockey news in August is as meager as your success rate scoring dates on Twitter, I was kind of looking forward to when nhl.com's team-by-beam summer previews got to the Islanders. Alas. That preview is up today, and while its a fairly thorough round-up for the casual fan or follower of other teams, it doesn't really contain any new nuggets for Islanders fans who have kept tabs all summer.
The theme is "hope" -- hope for the Lighthouse project, for the latest draft crop, for budding prospects and for the returning youngsters like Josh Bailey and Kyle Okposo. Quotes from Charles Wang (progress on the LP, but the push isn't over yet) and Scott Gordon (boy is it nice to have NHL-caliber goalies, as we imagined) are of the same message we've heard all summer. A small bit from Garth Snow re-emphasizes the Islanders' evaluation process for draft prospects, which is what motivated them to move up twice to select Calvin de Haan: "We do have a system we're using, a process -- and we believe in it."
So in the absence of anything new for the die-hards, it's always food for thought to hear another perspective on the Islanders' best prospects. NHL.com writer Brian Compton's top five (included in that preview) is after the jump, and it predictably differs from a few others out there, also posted below. I'll add my two cents, but I'm curious: How do you rate the top 5 (and these three lists), and why?
NHL.com Top 5
Aaron Ness - Gaining weight (in a good way), but reportedly had a so-so junior evaluation camp
Jesse Joensuu - Ready to make the jump after a strong AHL season?
Justin DiBenedetto - The 6th-round steal?
Kirill Petrov - Should be an excellent player when his KHL deal ends
Travis Hamonic - Budding WHL and Canadian Junior two-way defensive dynamo
For perspective, Chris Botta had his own list of Islanders junior/college/Euro prospects earlier this month, excluding Joensuu and DiBenedetto because they're already Bridgeport-established, but including this top 5:
1. de Haan
2. Ness
3. Corey Trivino
4. Hamonic
5. Petrov
Meanwhile, Hockey's Future posted its fall top-20 list last week, with -- of course -- a different take:
1. John Tavares (OK, that's unanimous, but the others left him off because of his inevitable presence in the NYI lineup)
2. de Haan
3. Petrov
4. Mikko Koskinen
5. Joensuu
6. Ness
At #7 was Trevor Smith, who debuted in the NHL last year (grrr...taking Pierre Turgeon's #77) and appears higher than at least one guy on each of the other two lists.
Now, I'll betray my bias here while acknowledging people love to toss this stuff around: Like mid-summer NHL playoff predictions, team prospect rankings are subject to wild variations in criteria and data, which is why you can have two lists consider Ness in the top two, while another list drops him behind at least two NHL-ready players and one defenseman drafted only 50 days ago. Frankly, I take any "ranking" with a grain of salt -- but people like to see things in numerical list form, so let them eat cake.
When you're thinking about prospects, you're thinking not only what they could become in the NHL but also what chances they have of actually making the NHL. Some guys (like the undersized Ness, and the Russian-tied Petrov) are high-risk, high-reward -- you don't know if they'll ever even become NHL regulars. Other guys (Joensuu, Harmonic) look like clear bets to become regulars, but their ceiling isn't as sexy as guys in the high-risk/high-reward category.
Me, I'm an NHL fans, so when talking prospects, I like birds in hand over a flock in the bush. A guy could be the next Paul Coffey? Wake me up when he gets here. So I'll give my (still hopelessly arbitrary) list based on who I'd most bet my own money on becoming Islanders regulars:
1. Joensuu
2. Hamonic
3. Koskinen
4. de Haan
5. DiBenedetto
Are there others who, if they make it, should be better than any of the above? Yes. Would I place money and time-wounded faith on it? No. But that's why team's have massive scouting staffs, and that's why scouts can talk shop over coffee in cold rinks for hours on end.
How about you? Which pre-natal Islanders youngsters give you the greatest hope?
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Since Petrov is unavailable for at least three years, I cannot see putting him on the list at all. If his KHL team were to agree to a buyout and he were to agree to jump across the pond, he’d go right to the top of the list.
Now as to my list. A top five would have to include Ness, Koskinnen, Moulson, Joensuu, and either Lee or Cizikas. Cizikas is probably closer to NHL ready, but when Lee comes up, the Isles may have to decide whether to trade him or Josh. He is likely a first or second line center while Cizikas is third or fourth line material. So Ness, Koskinnen, Joensuu, Moulson, and Lee in no particular order.
Interesting. I thought about Lee and Cizikas. Lee sounds enticing, but I was scared off by him being picked so late.
My only hope with Petrov is maybe in three years the rookie cap will be high enough for it to be worth his while to come over on entry-level terms.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Lee went late for two reasons. First, many feared he would become a football rather than a hockey player. That seems to have been settled. He has stated his determination to play hockey rather than football.
Second, he is going to Notre Dame and it may be several years before he will play in the NHL. He may be the most talented player that Garth has drafted to this point.
I’d throw together a definitive Top-3 of de Haan [1st rd. pick], Joensuu [our most NHL-ready prospect], and Koskinen [pro-ready goalie, dominating in the Finnish men’s league]. After that, any two of Hamonic, Ness, or Petrov. Frankly, I’m a little hesitant to definitively put Petrov in my Top-5; I know a lot of it was due to injury, but ‘08-09 was essentially a throw-away season. He’s still major boom/bust in my eyes.
As for Cizikas and Lee, these guys were projected mid-to-late rounders; what they do next season [and so on] will have a lot of bearing as to whether they climb the charts… but for now, they’re your typical mid-round “dice rolls.” Lee himself was passed over in last year’s draft [I know there were underlying reasons for this], so I’d have a little trouble labeling him as one of our five best prospects.
If I had to throw a sleeper into the mix – Jason Gregoire. I’m hoping he develops into the “Rakhshani” of our system [within the next yr. or two], so to speak. Tremendous hands, very good two-way player.
it’s hard to throw a definite list together when we have so many young guns that were plugged in due to injuries this year. When you consider perhaps Hillen, Joensuu, Smith and the like might not have had a shot at the nhl otherwise last season. I guess it’s a good problem to have. Definitely excited about the prospects of Joensuu however and I don’t think Ness or Harmonic are too far behind. I’d mention Koskinen but he’s already NHL ready in my opinion after last season, and the biggest choice the Isles might have to make is hold on to him or trade him in a few seasons for more prospects. De Haan has a ways to go though guys, needs a lot more size, haha.
On the subject of DeHaan, was watching Legends of Hockey’s tribute to Denis and he said that an important part of his game was that he liked to hit and be hit. Exactly what Kulikov said. I would have been much happier with this draft and the future of our defense if we’d drafted him. But maybe DeHaan will be everything they think he will be. Even if he is though, Kulikov will have several years experience on him by the time DeHaan comes to the NHL.
I would’ve preferred Kulikov, as well – tremendous year with the Voltigeurs, he played heavy minutes [and racked up a lot of points] for a team that made it all the way to the Memorial Cup. Looked solid in international play, if you ignore Eberle’s heroics at the WJC’s. A good number of scouting services had him as a Top-10 pick, let alone a Top-10 talent.
de Haan was someone I envisioned going in the back third of the first round, but now that I think about it, was there ever that glaring, mind-blowing weakness that a consensus of scouts seemed to pick on? With someone like Rundblad, it was his lack of polish on the defensive side of things. With Cowen, it was the viability of his surgically-repaired knee. (And so on, so forth…) The only drawback I kept reading about de Haan was his size [or lack thereof] – and I doubt he’ll be taking on the Ovechkins and Crosbys of the world at 6’0, 175 lbs. By most [if not all] accounts, he’s solid defensively, is a great skater, and thinks the game extremely well. I’m not sure if he’ll be the best rearguard out of this year’s draft crop, but if he is as advertised, he [and his skill-set] will be a useful addition to our roster down the road. I really like his upside.
Another feature of Kulikov’s game that is like Denis is that he would be happy never having to come off the ice at all. Denis often put in 35-40 minutes a game. I seem to recall one coach recounting how Kulikov had basically been playing the whole game with little or no rest and the coach decided to take him out toward the end as the game was already decided. Kulikov was very angry. It would be interesting to know why they picked DeHaan over Kulikov.
I’m reminded of what separated Bailey [in ‘08] from the rest of the pack – at least, in Snow’s eyes: character, smarts, and hockey sense. I’m positive that’s the reason why the Islanders fell in love with CDH over the rest of the field – his strengths are what NYI appear to idealize in the “model Islander.” I’d be willing to bet that de Haan’s performance at the U-18’s put him over the top – he was outstanding for Team Canada.
Granted, hockey sense + offensive ability are two trademarks of Kulikov’s game – and he appears to be physically ready to play in the NHL [possibly as soon as ‘09/10]… who knows, though. I thought it was a little ridiculous that he slipped because of the “Russian” factor – especially after he uprooted himself from Russia to play in the QMJHL. I doubt he’s a Radulov… and Florida got themselves a blue-chipper.
I’m reminded of what separated Bailey [in ‘08] from the rest of the pack – at least, in Snow’s eyes: character, smarts, and hockey sense. I’m positive that’s the reason why the Islanders fell in love with CDH over the rest of the field – his strengths are what NYI appear to idealize in the "model Islander."
Definitely. It’s going to be interesting in a few years to see if the model for the “new Islander” works out. If it does, with some of these early or outside-the-box picks they’ll be hailed as geniuses; if it doesn’t, we’ll wonder why they thought they (or their evaluation system) was smarter than everyone else.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Well, I do not disagree with them on the importance of character in winning at this level. Watch i replay of the clinching game of the Stanley Cup Final series between Ottawa and Anaheim. The commentators kept saying how lifeless and listless Ottawa—utterly lacking the kind of intensity and desperation you’d expect from a team that is about to get swept four straight in the Cup Finals.
By contrast, think of Kenny M. not being able to stand up in the Isle dressing room during a playoff series but later never missing a shift on the ice. Or Nic Lidstrom getting injured in the testicles against Chicago, having surgery, and then coming back to play in the next series—the Finals against the Pens. You need to be a little superhuman to win the Cup.
Hell yes. The Ottawa final makes me occasionally wonder, “Maybe passing on Spezza wasn’t the worst thing…”
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
I had thought that Heatley was more the problem…and of course we could have had him if Mad Mike hadn’t traded Luongo. I would liked to have had the problem of Luongo, Heatley (or Gaborik), Spezza, Parise, Chara, McCabe on my roster to deal with.
I would liked to have had the problem of Luongo, Heatley (or Gaborik), Spezza, Parise, Chara, McCabe on my roster to deal with.
Oh, certainly!
It sounds like Heatley and Spezza each have issues, though Spezza is continuing to mature, while Heatley is … of a very high opinion of himself. But Alfredsson is superior and makes life easier for both of them.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Now, lets suppose we could turn Heatley into Marian Hossa and Greg DeVries and McCabe into Mike Van Ryn. Then you have Luongo, Hossa, De Vries, Van Ryn, Spezza, Parise, and Chara. And that’s only a partial list of the disaster Mad Mike was.
And we could’ve turned Luongo back into Bertuzzi! :P
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
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New York Islanders
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(updated 2.15.2012 at 8:59 AM EST)
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