Islanders 2011-12: Picturing how the depth chart evolves
Egads, it's the Monday after a holiday. Hope you had a relaxing, festive weekend. If you're just tuning back in (or putting off returning to the grind), the Islanders added no one over the weekend. But while NHL news may slow to a crawl in the coming weeks, we won't. What you might have missed while grilling dead animals and avoiding Aunt Mildred: We had a round-up of Lighthouse Project links and draft reactions; a reflection on how the Islanders' fortunes may have been different had they re-signed Ryan Smyth, who Colorado dealt to Los Angeles over the weekend; and Nate Thompson filed for arbitration, while Chris Lee signed with the Penguins organization, Peter Mannino with Atlanta.
Yesterday I mused how -- temptation be damned -- the Islanders are right to play it conservative in the NHL's always overpriced free agent market (It's not too late to register your rebuttal). There's the matter of payroll flexibility on a low-revenue team, of course, but there's also the matter of leaving spots open for development during the rebuild. On that note, as an illustrative exercise, today I want to project a few years forward to see just what spots might open up as contracts expire. I appreciate any corrections or quibbles with who is slotted where. This is a chance to really meander as fantasy GM, if you want to play around with it -- including stealing other teams' free agents and cap casualties.
First, here's where we stand now, with a roster that is nearly set for 2009-10. (Yikes! Are the '00s coming to a close already?!):
| Bergenheim | Weight | Okposo |
| Tambellini | Tavares | Comeau* |
| Park | Bailey | Hunter |
| Joensuu | Nielsen | Jackman |
| Sim | Thompson* | Rechlicz |
| DEFENSE | Gervais | Streit |
| Martinek | Witt | |
| Sutton | Meyer | |
| Hillen* | ||
| GOAL | DiPietro | |
| Roloson | ||
| Munroe | ||
| Lawson |
2010-11
By the time EA Sports' NHL games came out with a true franchise mode earlier this decade, I'd lost the spare time to enjoy the game the way I always dreamed they'd design it. But look a year ahead at the Islanders' roster, and the real fun begins for the fantasy GM in you:
| Bergenheim* | Tavares | Okposo |
| Tambellini* | Bailey | (Comeau) |
| Joensuu |
Nielsen | Hunter |
| Bentivoglio | Smith | (2010 pick?) |
| (Thompson) |
Rechlicz | |
| DEFENSE | Gervais | Streit |
| Martinek | Witt | |
| (Hillen) |
||
| Kohn |
||
| GOAL | DiPietro | |
| Roloson | ||
| Lawson |
||
| (Koskinen) |
For 2010-11, assume Weight has retired or been dealt at the trade deadline, Sutton, Park, Meyer, Sim and perhaps Munroe have departed through free agency, and Mikko Koskinen has been brought over to the AHL. Comeau and Hillen are listed asssuming they reach workable deals this summer. But Nate Thompson -- well, who knows what's in store next year at this time, considering he filed for arbitration this summer. I left Tambellini on there because he'll be an RFA -- so just a qualifying offer would retain his rights -- but I realize many fans will envision cutting him loose. Since we have him for at least one more year, I'm going to try to reserve judgment. Again.
Tim Jackman is the type of guy you can see the Islanders bringing back again, but at this point he represents a roster opening for 2010. It's not hard to imagine the upcoming season going in a way that the Islanders can add an NHL-ready player in the 2010 draft's first round, although that draft is currently viewed as a weaker crop.
Meanwhile, in summer 2010 Dwayne Roloson, Bruno Gervais, Radek Martinek and Brendan Witt will be heading into their UFA walk years. Nathan Lawson is really too hard to project, and even information for his current NHL deal (his first) is tough to come by. Which brings us to...
2011-12
| (Bergenheim) | Tavares | Okposo* |
| Bailey* | (Comeau) | |
| Joensuu* |
Nielsen | Hunter |
| Bentivoglio | DiBenedetto | (2010 pick?) |
| Figren |
Rakhshani | Rechlicz* |
| DEFENSE | Gervais* | Streit |
| (Hillen) |
||
| Katic |
Kohn |
|
| Ness | Harmonic |
|
| GOAL | DiPietro | |
| (Koskinen) | ||
| (Nilsson) |
||
Josh Bailey, Kyle Okposo, Jesse Joensuu and Joel Rechlicz would be RFA's in summer 2012. Comeau and Bergenheim are a judgment call, but I'm figuring them in as part of a core that would be retained. I let Thompson go; he's at best a replacement player who'd likely be, well, replaced by summer 2011. Roloson retires; maybe Anders Nilsson comes overseas? Tambellini probably doesn't survive two summers, right? Witt, Gervais and Martinek are taken off as UFAs in 2011, although it's quite possible two of them would be re-signed.
It goes without saying that the current prospects I've filled in at the bottom of the depth chart in the 2011-12 table are speculative uncertainties, and perhaps some should be swapped out for others in the system. But I'm not really interested in which ones are more likely to hit it as NHL players at this premature point -- rather, just that some of them will have to or the Islanders will be turning to free agency quite a bit more than they prefer. (Personally I'll be disappointed if the Islanders' current NHL blueline is continued beyond the upcoming season. Each serviceable in their own right, as a whole there are too many average blueliners after Streit, which is why a free agent departure for Francois Beauchemin is an acceptable pipe dream in my book.)
The point is that this is the sort of roster evolution -- and sheer uncertainty -- we can expect over the next few seasons. Most of the current veterans are keeping the seats warm while the Islanders develop their recent haul of prospects to see who can truly fill NHL roles. Yet even by next summer, two years into the rebuild-in-earnest, things should be clearer. The Islanders will know more about which prospects probably won't pan out, and Garth Snow will have a better idea of what kind of long-term free agents or other team's salary cap casualties would fit.
On that note, it won't hurt to know where the Lighthouse Project stands by then, because if the Islanders don't have a good picture of where revenues will come from after the Coliseum lease expires, well ... let's not go there.
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Comments
This is probably a good illustration to show
Why it’s so important that the Isles replenish their system. In this last draft, pick quality aside, my wish was that they held onto their picks and just drafted at their respective positions. Granted, I think at the end of the day they only gave up about two of them.
Still, I think this team would have been much better drafting Feraro at 26 and the Goalie at 31. And this isn’t to say that I think Dehaan is a bad pick. Dehaan is obviously one of the brightest young Dmen to come out of this class of prospects from Juniors.
And the lack of depth on D is glaring hole in this organization. We head into another season crossing our fingers that Hamonic and Ness don’t fall off the charts.
Next summer things do get interesting. We have Rahkshanni coming in from Denver. Granted this guy doesn’t have a scoring touch that’s gonna make anyone forget about Bossy or Turgeon. He probably caps out as a 2nd or 3rd line RW defensive forward. Probably a lot like Hilbert (hopefull minus the fear of an open net).
Joensuu should be developed much further in the skating aspect of the game. Not sure if he’s top line material though. Definitly some much needed size on this team that can hopefully create some energy and room for his line mates.
I know, putting this together made me covet more picks and also made me more open to the idea of making free agent additions sooner in the cycle. Of course, I could have thrown more (or different) prospects in at the bottom, but I didn’t want to get crazy with it — and I didn’t want to lose sight of the reality that the majority of picks in the NHL do not pan out.
In the very least, Snow will have to keep looking at undrafted/minor league free agents to hopefully score another Hillen and more depth for Bridgeport.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
I've been following a lot of guys we drafted in 08
and thus far I don’t think the picture is as rosey as those would like to think.
For all the raw ability and potential Petrov has he has a verrrrrrrry long way to go.
Trivino in Parkers system was not going to get a lot of ice time. I think he was also injured for a portion of the season (familiar problem?) which might have hurt him as well. Next year he’ll get a lot more ice time and it helps coming off a championship season. Doesn’t look like he gave himself much to build on though.
Toews from what I hear had a disspointing year.
This season I think we see a lot of those 08 picks start to drop off.
On the bright side, Figren looks like he might be another Blake Comeau. Hopefully he gets a shot to make the big club this year but like Joensuu most likely needs some more work in Bport.
Haven’t seen any of ‘em, but that certainly jibes with my sense of 2008. Still very early, but I hope that class’s best day wasn’t in the reviews immediately afterward.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
You had to know I was gonna put my $.02 in
New York Islanders Roster 2010-2011
Forwards (from L-R)
Line 1: Free Agent, John Tavares, Kyle Okposo
Line 2: Sean Bergenheim, Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau
Line 3: Jesse Joensuu, Frans Nielsen, Trent Hunter
Line 4: Robin Figren, Richard Park, Joel Rechlicz
Defense
Pairing 1: Mark Streit, Free Agent
Pairing 2: Bruno Gervais, Calvin de Haan
Pairing 3: Mark Katic, Andy MacDonald/Dustin Kohn
Roster Considerations
Trevor Smith, Tomas Marcinko, Jeremy Reich, Nate Thompson, Justin DiBenedetto, Rhett Rakhshani, Kirill Petrov?, Jack Hillen, Travis Hamonic, Jared Spurgeon, Aaron Ness
Goalies
Rick DiPietro
Dwayne Roloson
Mikko Koskinen
Nate Lawson
Now, before you question my logic on some of these choices, allow me to explain.
Granted, this is going to be a VERY young team. The reason I believe in this setup is twofold.
1) Do as the Pens and Caps do
Starting with a young core with a good mix of talent (sniper, playmaker, grinder) up front you need to add that top flight free agent to play on a line of Tavares and Okposo in summer 2010. The one name that jumps out at me is Ilya Kovalchuk (barring Waddell being able to re-sign him and Atlanta actually doesn’t suck…again).
The rest of the forwards should be relatively self-explanatory. I honestly think Park will be back at least for another 2 seasons after this upcoming one and frankly the rest of that 4th line is up in the air. There are plenty of guys who can be inserted there.
On D, you have quite a few guys that will be on the verge of taking their first NHL/AHL contracts in Ness, de Haan, Hamonic, Spurgeon and Katic (Ness, de Haan, Hamonic and Spurgeon might be two years out now that I think about it). At this point, guys like Andy MacDonald and Dustin Kohn have to either put up or find greener pastures. Kohn especially will have to prove he’s better than just a 3-4 in the AHL.
Jack Hillen is another story entirely. I have gotten to know him over the past season. He goes about his business quietly, which could help or hurt him. Unfortunately for Jack, his size limits the effectiveness he can have at the NHL level. If he sticks with the team in 09-10, then and only then, will my opinion change. However, since he was extended only a two-way offer and not a one-way this tells me the Isles management is not yet convinced and may just be gauging his progress for one more season before deciding what to do with him.
Unfortunately for all of these young guys, it will still be an absolute necessity to go out and get a top pair free agent D-man. By now, the Isles should have established their identity. Go out and spend some money and find a quality 1-2 guy to play alongside Mark Streit (he can’t do it all himself can he?).
2) Keep these guys together
One major piece of the puzzle that’s been missing over the past decade is consistency. Not only in the level of play but in the personnel. It’s time to finally build around the same group of guys year after year. No more of this shuffle in and out of the different lineups every night. Scott Gordon certainly doesn’t appreciate finding new names on his roster sheet and neither should the fans or upper management.
It’s time to establish that core and keep them together for more than a year or two.
That’s just my $.02.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
Excellent. Good stuff! Thanks for laying all that out (we’ll upgrade it to a nickel). I agree the cycle cries out for a bigger free agent or two (winger and D suits me) — hell, with retirements/defections, the salary cap floor will demand it.
This is why the more I think about it, the more I dream of a Beauchemin move now. I’m not really high on our blueline as a whole right now, and I think now would be an ideal time to cut one away. Inking him for 4-5 years would be an upgrade that knocks everyone (outside of Streit) down one notch toward a more appropriate slot on the depth chart. And solid blueliners help cover up trying times.
On Hillen, I was wondering about that two-way offer. Between Thompson’s offer, the default selection of one-way Joey McDonald as backup last year, and Hillen, I wonder if they try to just offer two-ways until they’re forced not to.
I echo and trumpet your “keep these guys together” point. That’s why this rebuild — I’m telling myself — is different. The core must grow together; then we’ll decide if it needs changing as the team gets closer to a real run.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Beauchemin signs in Toronto; Kovalev in Ottawa
I’ll put my Francois pipe back in the dream holster…
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
At least the Leafs are taking bets on defenseman that are more likely to be good this season (no Jeff Finger’s yet) – at 3.8 million this would have definitely been a better deal than Komisarek at 4.5 million (although Streit is still better value than both of them at this point).
Totally. I’m surprised they got Beauchemin for under $4m. I wonder if, given who gave him his big shot, the Burke force is strong with him?
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Highly likely, as Anaheim is where Beauchemin went from waiver wire and fringe defenseman to a very good 3rd defenseman.
The Isles would have looked good if they had got him at that price though : (.
Oh well, my brief love-affair with him can now be replaced with reality (but surrogated through NHL 2009)
As long as by 11-12 the Islanders are still on the Island…
by WebBard on Jul 6, 2009 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No doubt. A few times last season I pondered eventualities like this if they left. Always ended up smacking myself and thinking of a sunny meadow to shake it.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
They will be Negative Nancy. Today was a big step forward in the process.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
by IslesOfficial on Jul 6, 2009 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell, the lease all but guarantees that they will be here through the 11-12 season.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
by IslesOfficial on Jul 6, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Tomorrow is, right? I think Newsday ran a misprint about the meeting being today (Monday) instead of tomorrow.
Even though the lease goes to 2015, man I hope it’s settled well before 2011-12. I can’t handle more years of Phoenix-like off-ice drama.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Today, we got the announcement that Public Comments will begin Aug. 4th but the actual meeting to determine whether the DGEIS is ready for public comments is tomorrow.
The acceptance (crosses fingers) hopefully is a forgone conclusion.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
by IslesOfficial on Jul 6, 2009 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, right, that one. I got that filed in my “August pivotal events” folder…
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Hey, they still have that Exhibition scheduled for KC. And you never know with Balsille trying everything possible to get a team.
But they can’t exactly cancel the K.C. game (nor should they … Wang still needs to hold any real or implied hammers he has).
I do worry about Balsillie, but I think if Bettman will fight this hard to save Phoenix, he’d do the same and then some for the Islanders.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
btw, have you seen the deal for the Coyotes? Apparently the guy thats planing on buying the team is buying it without any money basically.
I saw that. Pretty wild. Although the team has piled up so much debt, assuming that debt isn’t exactly free — it’s just not giving any cash to the guy who got them into debt in the first place. Seems like Reinsdorf could make a profit on it just by turning the team around or flipping it to a relocating owner who meets the NHL’s approval.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
The KC exhibition won’t be cancelled for one reason and one reason only: Money
The game is a pure profit endeavor that sold out way back when they announced it. The Islanders are being paid to play in Kansas City by the building owners (part of the Kings ownership group).
Same goes for Saskatoon where their holding training camp. The Islanders are getting paid a fee just for using the facilities as opposed to paying for them.
From the Penalty Box to the Blog Box! Check it out at Isles Official's Outlook!
by IslesOfficial on Jul 7, 2009 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

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