LHinks: NHL draft theories and wishes galore
by Dominik on Jun 24, 2009 2:56 PM EDT
in Bits o' Islanders News
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PrintMy Lord Bossy, the blogosphere is great.
As a fan, I've often yawned at the draft because the ink-to-reality ratio is so skewed. Projecting the NHL future of players beyond the top 10 is like projecting the weather 45 days from now: I've got an idea of probability, but beyond that ...? Things change.
Yet people talk in certain terms because humans don't deal well with uncertainty. It gets to be overkill.
That was a long way of saying, Tavares/#1 pick aside, the great blogging coverage of the draft has gotten me excited about it like never before.
Three theories of the draft:
- From the 2009 playoffs' best players: 1st round, forward; 2nd-round D [Birdwatchers Anonymous]
- But wait: Over time, it's a little blurrier -- but never draft a goalie high. [Gospel of Hockey]
- Are higher picks really that necessary to a team's success? [PPP FanPost]
Other fun draft/Isles links after the jump...
- This has been around, but is priceless: The draft-day phrase glossary. [Orland Kurtenblog]
- Um, I guess this draft is important to the Isles [SI.com]
- "A sniper, plain and simple." -- Islesblogger outlines his vote.
- "Oh, but the sniper can't ..." -- enough! B.D. refutes the criticism with an interview of Tavares' old coach.
- Doug is headed to the draft and is taking your questions with him.
- Botta wants EVERYone to declare whether they're truly "done" if Tavares is skipped.
Non-draft stuff:
- From when I was out: Jeremy Colliton's gone to Sweden. R.I.P., 2003 2nd round.
- Nick addresses a Lighthouse opponent. [Let There Be Light(house)]
- Who's in your 2010 HOF class? Gilmour, Mogilny, Oates, Bure for me ...
More to come as the hours tick away...
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Oh man, I am so done if — when? — Snow doesn’t pick Tavares.
I am an exceedingly loyal person, but I can only tolerate incompetence and malfeasance for so long and I’ve been pushed to the brink by these clowns.
Hopefully there is no “when” and the question is moot. If not, I’m not totally sure how I’ll feel. Obviously, I’m blogging and will continue on, but with what stance?
I think of the draft party and think, there’s just no way. No way Dey doesn’t at least know what’s up, too. No way they’re drafting someone else without some sort of PR damage control plan, the signs of which we would have seen by now. No way.
But I found out about Neil Smith while on vacation, from an ESPN ticker. It wasn’t so long ago that this franchise was torturing me… But I’m trusting Snow. And Jankowski.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
I think the thing is with the gap between the top 3 as small as it has become that so long as Snow doesn’t go outside those options it may be okay.
Although non-Tavares choices may be discouraging short-term you’ve got to hope that the scouting staff sees something exceptional and that the decision is warranted (in other words make sure it is incompetence by Snow and not him using what they know rather than what the public consensus thinks).
That is a damn level-headed thing to say, and it helps calm my nerves. Thanks :)
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Hey…with all the aforementioned incompetence & malfeasance it could be handy to take some time out from the need for therapy and just hope that for now things will be okay…
And I mean realistically, the Isles are heading in the right direction and choosing Hedman or Duchene might slow this down but one bad pick does not immediately ruin everything.
And…Even if it does there is sure to be a light at the end of the tunnel – e.g. even if choosing Patrik Stefan in 1999 for Atlanta did not help they got Ilya Kovalchuk in 2001 who (for now) is their franchise player.
Somehow, citing Atlanta does not comfort me :)
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
You think they would actually care enough to try a PR damage control plan? They didn’t have one with Nolan last season. I get the feeling that the Islanders front office feels that threats about them not picking Tavares are a bunch of hot air. They’ll do what they want, get booed at the Draft Party and then expect it to just wash over and the fans to forget. I can see the words coming from Snow or Wang already, that “(insert name here) was the best building stone despite what Tavares might bring to the table quickly and that in the best intrest of the future of the franchise they picked (name) and when they begining winning the fans will turn around”
So hard to tell, with all of their comm. staff changes. I hold out hope they’re learning/adapting their course — some stuff Dey has done impresses me. But yeah, I mean I can’t argue with the franchise’s track record.
If they somehow aren’t picking Tavares, I’ll be very interested in how they handle it (and likely lose that optimism).
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Pavel Bure over Lindros? Lindros only played 58 more games then Bure, but has nearly a hundred more points. The arguement goes both ways on either guy being injuried and having their careers cut short, but the thought on Bure was that he was always all speed and nothing else. Both players made it to the Finals once, but I’d argue that McLean getting hot for the playoofs helped a lot more for the Canucks. Hell, McLean had a .928 Sv% that playoffs, and he rarely cracked .900 as a goalie over his whole career.
I’m not saying Lindros doesn’t ever make it, but with only four slots per year, I got more from Bure’s abridged career than Lindros.
And Lindros gets a quadruple-bonus penalty from me for his draft holdout with the Nordiques. Want to play in the league? Sorry, you have to respect the most basic, competitive balance mechanism there is, which has helped make the league great. (i.e., the draft.) That’s not related to his on-ice performance, of course, but he didn’t give a damn about how things work when Quebec drafted him, so I’m comfortable being petty about it.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
I was looking for a case where a HOF’er held out, but I couldn’t for the Hockey HOF. I think Lindros will definitely be penalized and won’t be in right away, but he should be in there at some point. Even over at the Canucks blog they doubt Bure can make the hall.
Bure’s a really interesting case, because the injuries happened so soon, and you have the usual “complete player?” and “floater?” stuff associated with a sniper.
But his peak years were amazing. Who could score 60 goals for the Panthers in the trap era? I know Cam Neely is hockey deity in many circles and totally fits the North American game that HOF voters are partial to, but if Neely’s in for his shortened career (and granted, there wasn’t unanimous support for that), Bure ought to be, too.
Of course, going by that rationale is how the bar gets lowered in the first place. Fun to think about, anyway.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Your right, his second 90 point season with the Panthers is amazing. The next leading scorer on the team only had 30 points. I think I’m tainted on Bure because I remember him and Fluery playing on the Rangers and all the NY media hating them for either being injuried or not living up to expectations.
But I was thinking about it and Lindros, Bure and Yashin all roughly have the same stats, all missed at least a season in their prime. I think your right though, in that the bar is getting lowered. What makes Cam Neely’s injury a feel good story while Lindros and Bure will probably have their shortened careers held against them.
The difference is the same as in Real Estate.
Location, location, location.
Lots more reporters in NY than in the Carolina’s to create the hate.
SHOOOOOOOT IT!!!! Anon
by burpchelischili on Jun 26, 2009 4:15 AM EDT up reply actions
What makes Cam Neely’s injury a feel good story while Lindros and Bure will probably have their shortened careers held against them.
Totally, totally. All about the myth-making and the character. North Americans hockey fans don’t know how to define character, but we like to think we know it when we see it ;)
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
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