Sampling the Top 3 2009 draft prospects
by Dominik on May 19, 2009 7:00 AM EDT
in Islanders in Diapers
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PrintIt's funny: You can cherry-pick any number of quotes, grand statements and incisive scouting reports to back up an argument for any particular prospect in this year's NHL draft. Everybody wants to be heard, everybody wants to get that bit of new insight into a process whose data is already in -- aside from the psych profiling the Islanders do but won't share with us.
At the end of the day, you probably want to go with the guy who's been rated #1 in the 2009 class for what seems like forever. But late second-guessing and re-evaluating will always happen when the picks in question are still-developing kids who can evolve and change with each passing month.
But let's play the game. Take the following quotes -- all from anonymous scouts/GM's in THN's Draft Preview -- consider the Islanders' needs and franchise status (Josh Bailey is here, Kyle Okposo is here, Mark Streit is here, the Lighthouse Project is not) and ask yourself, "Who would I take?" from the following descriptions:
Teenager A: "He's really skilled, but he can play both ways. You're definitely drafting him to play in your top six. You're hoping he'll be your No. 1 center, but the worst-case scenario is he'll be No. 2."
Teenager B: "With all the focus on special teams now, there's no doubt this guy is going to put up big numbers. Inside the hash marks, he's one of the best young players I've ever seen." ..."Is he special? I don't know ... but he'll [be] in the top 10 in scoring every year for a long time." ... "He doesn't have a lot of outside speed, but he knows what to do (when he gets to the net)."
Teenager C: "He may not be a bruising defensemean, but he uses his size to his advantage and he skates so well for a big man. He will be a cornerstone on defense for a team for many years." ... "Watch him playing against men in Sweden and you can see what he does." ... "I didn't get the real deal with him until I saw him playing in the Swedish Elite League. It was pretty special."
Obviously Teen A is Matt Duchene, Teen B is John Tavares and Teen C is Victor Hedman. With its bevy of anonymous scouts and GM's, The Hockey News did a pretty thorough job of capturing the conventional wisdom we've heard up to now. I still say that:
- a) If I were building a team from scratch or do-over, I'd go with the big blueliner.
- b) If my team's offense/defense needs were equal and my franchise had external relations issues, the tiebreaker would go with the star power of the sexy sniper.
- c) No matter what, the Islanders are scoring themselves a sure NHLer and very fine players.
Et tu, Isles fan? (Other teams' fans welcome, too -- we've got a long wait until the draft. The attached poll has been up for a while, so you may have already voted. But you can always change your vote or explain your latest view in comments.)
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I’m taking Hedman. And I dislike your description of Duchene, since it made me feel like I was voting against Stevie Y.
I’ve seen Lidstrom anchor the Wings blueline for over a decade. And its not like he’s even a big guy like Pronger. Every team that truly contends for the Cup has a big time minute muncher type guy that could play in any situation. Scott Stevens for the Devils. Adam Foote for the Avalanche. Lidstrom for the Wings. The Stars had Zubov. The Ducks have had Niedermayer and Pronger (who also carried Edmonton to a SCF). Gonchar has been invaluable to the Penguins. No team wins a Stanley Cup without these types of defensemen. Its pretty hard to get to the top of the league without these guys. Teams can win Stanley Cups without much scoring (though its harder now than it used to be). But no team wins a Stanley Cup without defense. A sniper is sexy and all, that’s nice, but you need defense to win. If you can get the next Lidstrom or Pronger, you do it, and you don’t think twice about it.
Also, I don’t pay tons of attention to NHL draft stuff, but the idea that Tavares isn’t that quick of a skater, but thrives in front of the net seems like a big red flag to me. Dustin Penner was really good in front of the net, when he had Perry and Getzlaf to do the skating for him and let him handle everything in front. If I’m taking you with the #1 overall pick, I want the kind of guy who has good wheels and can get down the ice on a rush and make things happen. Not the kind of guy who is going to camp in front and try to score on the rebound or a nice pass. Anyone can do that, but it takes someone special to lead a rush and make something great happen.
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Preaching to the choir, in a way
…Except for the Stevie Y bit :)
Philosophically, I agree with you on the whole franchise-D approach, and the examples you mention. (I’ve gone into that approach a few times before because, hey, it’s been that kind of season.) But the Islanders desperately need both — and they have more of one in Mark Streit (who is still getting better and approaching what no one thought he would be) than they do of the other. And I think teams need stud D and dynamic scorers in the post-lockout, enforce-the-rulebook NHL.
From what I’ve read, the Tavares skating knock is more just to explain that he doesn’t have the kind of breakaway speed to make him an all-world Ovechkin — not that he’s some kind of Penner. When I hear about him, I more think of Brendan Shanahan (in terms of sniping ability and competitiveness), who funnily enough was once traded for Pronger straight-up. I guess this needs debate never ends.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Need offense - big time!
I have to respectfully disagree “A sniper is sexy and all, that’s nice, but you need defense to win”…O.K. maybe to win the Cup, but lets concentrate on winning some games first and to do that you have to put the puck way more than we are now. We have some defensive strength, i.e. Streit, but we didn’t have one, not one, 20 goal scorer this season…that is really sad. We HAVE to go offense and heavy in this draft, not just with the top pick, but with most of the picks thereafter.
Personally, I’d go with Tavares, I think the criticisms are based mostly on the fact that he has been scrutinized deeper than anyone else – you are sure to find many more “problems” with the other picks if they were looked at so closely.
But even if not Tavares, still, we need to go offense. Personally, I am not too concerned about the Isles top pick, I am concerned that with the other really good pick positions we have after the top pick. We need to get the guys who can score, and score often – when you don’t have one 20 goal scorer – two guys that can put up 25 – 40 goals a year can change this team way more then defensive strength, at this point anyway. Maybe we already have one of them, maybe not, but in either case, we need to draft offense.
Hey, welcome and thanks for joining in!
Tavares, I think the criticisms are based mostly on the fact that he has been scrutinized deeper than anyone else – you are sure to find many more "problems" with the other picks if they were looked at so closely.
Yeah, it seems like that always happens with the consensus “top” kid as we get down to the wire. I suspect (and hope) you’re right.
Agree with your preference for offense with the later pick(s), too. At that point, it’s a roll of the dice, but we’d be wise to bet on a kid with offensive skills and size. Take a few stabs with those picks — unless they package them to trade up — and hope one of them scores.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
In my mind
…It’s not who i select, it’s who wants the prize.
IAmJoe hit on the fact that franchise D-men of the caliber Hedman is supposed to be come along only once in a long while… At the same time, what happened with Chara in New York? Was he the big D that put the rest of the team over the top?
To add a cog like that to a competitive team is huge, to add a cog like that to a team that’s rebuilding and needs a bit of everything… Well, if I am in the Isles shoes, I look at Duchene and Tavares…
…and then I start listening to the offers come in for the pick.
I started getting visions of Chris Gratton when I was reading about Tavares in that short piece. Yeah, he’s been highly touted for an age but if there’s reasonable doubt, do you really want to put all your eggs in one basket on a pick like this?
Then again, what is fair value for the marketing hype that a John Tavares would give a franchise?
The Raw Charge -- the Tampa Bay Lightning weblog at SB Nation.
So many questions...
Yeah, those are really the dilemmas right there. And I think they will be listening to offers if they decide they’re equal or if they think TB or COL wants to move. But they absolutely cannot trade out of the Top 3.
I don’t remember the Gratton praise equaling the Tavares praise, but it wasn’t my team in the running and there’s been a lot more hype-enabling Web bandwidth created since then.
On Chara: One thing about him is he was drafted as a project, a veeeery rough project. Some laughed at Milbury (well, that always happens) for bringing him along. “He should be playing basketball,” etc. He was really awkward at first and nowhere near Hedman at this age; nowhere near what he is now even when they traded him. But your point stands: Is Chara, even now, equal value to what Tavares might become? Will Hedman be even a Chara?
So much spec’ over teenagers. This is actually why I sort of hate the draft. A bunch of pundits talking with certainty about a bunch of uncertainties.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
As I said before, Tavares, Tavares, Tavares. Has there been anything more disappointiong for the most part then Dmen picked #1 or #2 in the last twenty years?
92 #1 Hamrlik
93 #2 Pronger
94 #1 Jovanski #2 Tverdovsky
95 #1 Berrard #2 Redden
96 #1 Philips #2 Zyuzin
06 #1 Johnson
Johnson’s an unknown still, but the rest was a sign of the 90s rush to build a top D. Jovanoski and Pronger are obviously the two best players to build a franchise around. Philips and Redden have been good but unspectacular, and Berrard had a bright future. So out of 8 Dmen (not counting Johnson) you have 2 franchise players, 2 solid guys, 1 injury ruined career and then 3 busts.
Meanwhile the last #1 pick to be a bust would be Stefan, and since then almost every #1 overall has gone on to be the face (or one of the faces) of their franchise except for possibly Johnson. Even Stamkos had a good end to last season.
Thats why you pay scouts though. Lidstrom was a 2nd round pick, Green was a late first round pick, Brian Campbell was a 6th round pick. If you look at the teams that have rebuilt lately (Chicago, St Louis, Pittsburgh) most of their dmen were FA pickups or later round pics.
This season the Islanders only let in 34 more goals then the Red Wings did, but the Wings scored nearly 100 more goals. For the most part some people might argue that DiPietro might be the difference between 15-30 goals a year.
Interesting perspective
Yeah, I’d say Pronger was money, Berard would have been close, and Johnson (golf carts notwithstanding) should be.
Thinking out loud, I guess that’s the product of D-men taking so long to develop? I mean, in Pronger’s first 2.5 years and before he met Keenan, he looked like he could be another big-bodied bust. Jovo looked great for a couple years and then leveled off. That long development time alone may be reason enough not to risk blowing your pick on a D that might not develop.
On that note, should it be a flag that one of Hedman’s best/most-cited qualities is just his size, and the fact he “skates so well for a big man”? That sounds like a statement that could be followed by “but we have no idea how good offensively or defensively he will be.”
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