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24 hrs to go: Islanders' deadline call due on Guerin, Weight, Hilbert, Witt

Twenty-twenty-twenty-four hours to go-oh-oh, I wanna be a-traded.
Nothin' to do no clause to stay ho-ome, I wanna be a-traded.
Just get me to the airport, send me to the East

Hurry hurry hurry, I want my playoff feast
I can't control my future, I can't control my team
Oh no-oh-oh-oh-ohhh...

As the rumor feeding frenzy intensifies at the NHL trade deadline, it's helpful to remind ourselves: All of these league "sources" are participating in barroom speculation, passing on what little tea leaves they know couched in the veneer of their own opinions. (Oh, but it's us bloggers who are guilty? Right.)

You'll notice even our beloved Chris Botta, in his first deadline go-around as a connected guy free to publicly share his thoughts, has a bevy of sources who have conflicted one another (Guerin to Philly? Not to NJ? Washington? Boston?). Things change. Reporters receive direct denials that may have an expiration date of 30 minutes. While outright B.S. eventually comes back to you haunt you in a "Malkin to LA" sort of way, a little source misdirection is to be expected and goes a long way for a GM hoping to bid up the price of his assets.

With that in mind, what should GM Garth Snow be doing right now, as the countdown nears 24? Simply, keep gauging the top price he can get for his most desirable assets, and double-checking whether he has a competing seller out there. Take it from one GM -- or hey, take it from six -- who have been there: The market price fluctuates through the final day.

[Updated with McAmmond, the newbie who slipped my mind.] So let's see what he has left on the scrap heap (Exhibits follow after the jump/poll):

Star-divide

NHL Trade Rumors and Hockey Blogs - SB Nation NHL Trade Deadline

Exhibit A: The Veteran Power Forward

Is there another Bill Guerin on the market? It doesn't look like it, unless the Oilers give up on Erik Cole or the Blues give up and deal the more desirable Keith Tkachuk.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Bill Guerin 61 16 20 36 -15 63 5 0 3 1 181 8.8


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Keith Tkachuk 60 18 18 36 -9 41 11 0 3 0 140 12.9


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Erik Cole 62 15 10 25 -5 63 5 0 1 1 142 10.6

Although We The People demand news -- now! -- the hockey side of the Guerin delay doesn't yet worry me. Even within Guerin's limited choice of Eastern teams, there are more buyers than sellers, so Snow should get his price. But if Tkachuk and Cole both hit the market, you better believe those prices will be leveraged against Snow.

Likelihood of movement: 90%

 

Exhibit B: The Injured Center and PP Specialist

Is Doug Weight worth dealing if you have any interest at all in extending him on the Island? What price can be expected for a 38-year-old center who may be healthy again in the final week(s) of the regular season? If you're a GM looking to add center or PP depth, you have to be a) certain you're making the playoffs and b) committed to clearance shopping to gamble on Weight's MCL.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Doug Weight 44 9 26 35 -12 27 5 0 0 1 79 11.4

It's hard to find a comparable for that kind of uncertainty, which is why I suspect the "package Weight with Guerin" theory has gained some footing. Throw Weight in, make their sum price greater what they'd bring back in standalone trades.

A funny thing you see when you peruse the reports and fan opinions about whether teams should acquire one of these vets: The impressions range widely in some mix of what they once were, what they've been recently, and what they might be on a better team than the Islanders.

Likelihood of movement: 50%

 

Exhibit C: The Comrie Flip


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Dean McAmmond 49 5 4 9 4 22 0 1 2 0 48 10.4

In just a over a week since arriving in a swap of expiring contracts with the Campoli/Comrie deal, Dean McAmmond has played like a man possessed and already grabbed an "A" when injuries and forced sit-downs (suspension, pending trade, the usual) left the club letter-short. He still has that speed. He still has hands that randomly surprise you. What he doesn't have is consistent stats you'd expect with those occasional hands and that speed.

That said, he seems to sense this may be his last hurrah, and you know he'd hungrily accept whatever task a playoff team assigns him. In his short Islanders tenure, he's looked like a guy just happy to be playing hockey. If Snow can flip him for a mid-round pick, he should do it yesterday.

Likelihood of movement: 40%

 

Exhibit D: The Poor Man's Sillinger

Alright, so I knew Mike Sillinger, I worked with Mike Sillinger: Andy Hilbert, sir, is no Mike Sillinger. But Hilbert loosely fits Sillinger's deadline profile: A dependable defensive forward with some scor-- ... well, decent hands that this season has finally equated to some scoring touch. Except for that whole 35% faceoff percentage thing (128 attempts) and the fact he mostly plays wing.


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Andy Hilbert 51 10 12 22 2 16 1 1 0 0 116 8.6

It may be that Hilbert is ideally suited to a place like Long Island and a system like Scott Gordon's. But if a team wants another body, maybe this UFA fetches a pick. Some may remember his late-season run on Sindey Crosby's wing in 2006 (after being plucked off waivers from Chicago) and dream accordingly.

Likelihood of movement: 30%

 

Exhibit E: The Value Bargain Contracts

Some would like to sell injury-prone Radek Martinek -- he's missed half this season's games -- and never have to hear "Martinek, 4-6 weeks" again. He's a dependable defenseman at a bargain rate ($1.4M next, $1.9M in 2010-11) -- if, and it's a big IF, healthy. Likewise, some wonder if the bargain price of veteran power forward and possible future captain Trent Hunter ($2M per through 2013) might draw interest. Or defensive forward and locker room glue Richard Park ($800k next year).


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Radek Martinek 32 2 2 4 -11 20 0 0 0 0 30 6.7


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Trent Hunter 54 14 17 31 -9 35 5 0 2 0 151 9.3


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Richard Park 57 10 14 24 -9 28 4 2 1 0 108 9.3

But who is in a position to pay for these bargain contracts, and why would they do it unless they were swapping serious assets to clear cap room? It's true, if a contender needed to get creative to fit in, say, a Pronger, they might swap their overpriced power forward/D-man plus extra to bring back the cheaper Hunter or Martinek. Not likely, though, (or is it?) unless they haven't seen Martinek's records. This is a case of these players being worth more to the Islanders than to any team capable of paying the price to take them away.

Stranger things have happened, I suppose, but it would have to be one charming pig of a deal for me to picture it in lipstick.

Likelihood of movement: 20%

 

Exhibit F: "Zis exhibit is closed!" [Simpsons audio link, auto show episode]


Brendan Witt

#32 / Defenseman / New York Islanders

6-2

223

Feb 20, 1975


The much-mulled case of Brendan Witt, under contract for two more years at $3 million per. As Botta has already mentioned, Snow's asking price for Witt is apparently too high for anyone to take him seriously. Which is sort of what I hoped Snow would do, since Witt is not an expiring asset who must be dealt now. Make someone pay silly money for him (you might argue anyone who wants Witt this year is inherently silly), or else wait for open bidding during the summer.

Likelihood of movement: 10%

 

Exhibit G: The Goalies


Yann Danis

#34 / Goalie / New York Islanders

6-0

182

Jun 21, 1981



GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Yann Danis 19 1113 7 9 2 1 44 2.37 607 563 .928 2


GP MIN W L T EGA GA GAA SA SV SV% SO
2008 - Joey MacDonald 42 2418 12 24 5 6 133 3.30 1332 1199 .900 0

Frankly, I don't think the Islanders can afford to part with a goalie from here on out unless they want to torture their AHL affiliate in Bridgeport. But if a team desperate for goaltending depth wanted to make an offer for the hot, lottery-spoiling Yann Danis, I suppose Snow would have to listen. But he needs either Danis or November's Third Star Joey MacDonald -- if not both -- back in the fold next year in case Rick DiPietro, you know ...

Likelihood of movement: 10%

Poll
Given that Bill Guerin is most likely to go, which Islander ranks 2nd in the "He's a goner" Sweepstakes?
Weight - Grab skill for the playoffs; MCL, schmem-C-L
16 votes
Hilbert - A cheap, depth rental - career* year! (*Islanders career)
2 votes
Park - Jack of all trades, signed cheap through 2010
3 votes
Hunter - Value like that is too good not to share
3 votes
Martinek - Let someone else be his medic
9 votes
Witt - Witt, Witt, he don't fit
11 votes
A goalie - Cheap backup, anyone? What, you trust Osgood?
1 votes

45 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 7 comments |

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Comments

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Oh, I see what you guys did there

Bidding up previously zero-vote Martinek in the poll after Botta says there are three offers for him.

Buncha followers :P

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Mar 3, 2009 2:45 PM EST reply actions  

I have not voted yet – be right back

Islesblogger is a contributor to Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog who's lost the most man games to injury.

by Michael Schuerlein on Mar 3, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Weight it is.

PS, it’s an MCL sprain and not a tear. He has looked fine walking around the barn honestly.

Islesblogger is a contributor to Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog who's lost the most man games to injury.

by Michael Schuerlein on Mar 3, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh, oh I know it’s just a sprain. I just would be careful counting on introducing a guy — who depends on his wheels — into the playoffs right after he’s coming back from a knee injury. I’ve watched him play hurt before, and it’s not pretty! Courageous, but not pretty :)

But then I think I’d be a careful asset hoarder in general. Good to hear he’s moving around well, though.

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Mar 3, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Logan had some one-on-one time with him in the hallway last night, so I would be eagled eyed for some stuff from him either tonight or tomorrow.

Islesblogger is a contributor to Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog who's lost the most man games to injury.

by Michael Schuerlein on Mar 3, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Probably just asking him if he knew a good place to eat. :)

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Mar 3, 2009 11:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Doh!

Totally forgot to include “None of the above” as a poll option. Whodathunkit?

Lighthouse Hockey: SBN's New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Mar 4, 2009 8:26 PM EST reply actions  

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Atlantic Standings

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(updated 4.12.2010 at 9:21 AM EDT)

New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 C 10/2/1989 188 6-1
Blake Comeau 57 RW 2/18/1986 207 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 210 6-1
Mark Eaton 0 D 5/6/1977 204 6-2
Mark Flood 4 D 9/29/1984 190 6-1
Bruno Gervais 8 D 10/3/1984 205 6-1
Trevor Gillies 14 LW 1/30/1979 215 6-3
Michael Haley 59 C 3/30/1986 202 5-11
Jack Hillen 38 D 1/24/1986 200 5-11
Trent Hunter 7 RW 7/5/1980 210 6-3
Milan Jurcina 0 D 6/7/1983 236 6-4
Anton Klementyev 48 D 3/25/1990 198 6-1
Dustin Kohn 56 D 2/2/1987 200 6-2
Zenon Konopka 0 C 1/2/1981 213 6-1
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 188 6-1
Matt Martin 46 LW 3/8/1989 192 6-2
Radek Martinek 24 D 8/31/1976 203 6-1
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 206 6-1
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 172 5-11
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 200 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 0 LW 3/24/1983 198 6-0
Richard Park 10 RW 5/27/1976 190 5-11
Joel Rechlicz 40 RW 6/14/1987 220 6-4
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 195 6-0
Dwayne Roloson 30 G 10/12/1969 180 6-1
Rob Schremp 13 C 7/1/1986 200 5-11
Jon Sim 16 LW 9/29/1977 195 5-10
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 195 6-0
Doug Weight 93 C 1/21/1971 196 5-11
James Wisniewski 0 D 2/21/1984 207 6-0

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