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Islanders All-Decade Team: The draft busts

I know the new year is supposed to be a time of hope, washing the slate clean, letting bygones be bygones, etc. Well, we'll get back to the hope part once the calendar turns.

But as one final note on this culturally circumscribed decade (i.e. "the aughts") which has brought us so much pain, here we may expunge some famous draft demons once and for all. A glance at recent Islanders draft years underlines just how costly giving up high picks can be, as well as just how biased we can be when picks are still fresh. (For example, I look at that 2008 draft haul and see six players I can picture as NHLers. That is both impressive and so delusional I'm ashamed to write it.)

To be fair, I'll restate my belief that beyond the top five or so the draft is largely a crapshoot, and the Islanders haven't whiffed in that spot -- at least not at the "bust" level. I can only blame teams so much for passing on a Mike Green in 2004, when Washington themselves selected Jeff Schultz instead of Green just two picks earlier.

Without further ado, the nominees for Biggest Draft Bust on the Islanders All-Decade Team. [Full listing after the jump, which is after the poll if you're on the home page.]

Star-divide

Start (and finish?) with the most obvious, I suppose:

Ryan O'Marra

2005, 1st Round, 15th Overall  | NHL Totals: 3 GP, 0 G, 1 A

Selected just after: Sasha Pokulok, Capitals.

Selected before: Ryan Parent (18), Tuukka Rask (21), Nicla Bergfors (23), T.J. Oshie (24), Matt Niskanen (28).

If O'Marra in any real way helped rent Ryan Smyth, then cheers to Garth Snow, I guess. O'Marra has been written about a lot, seldom in a flattering way. But he finally got into some NHL games with the Oilers this year. First-round picks get lots of chances. If he salvages something from his, good for him.

 

Petteri Nokelainen

2004, 1st Round, 16th Overall | NHL Totals: 156 GP, 14 G, 11 A

Selected just after: Alexander Radulov, Predators

Selected before: Travis Zajac (20), Wojtek Wolski (21), Andrej Meszaros (23), Rob Schremp Hockey(!) (25), Mike Green (29)

I wouldn't call Nokie a bust, though you could argue you want more offensive talent out of a mid-first rounder. Still, he was hurt more by injury than by his own failings and he has become a responsible NHL forward befitting the Finnish mold. But in terms of what the Isles got out of him (Ben Walter and an extra 2nd-round pick in 2009) and where he was selected, yes, this pick was a bust.

 

Sean Bergenheim

2002, 1st Round, 22nd Overall | NHL Totals: 213 GP, 34 G, 34 A

Selected just after: Anton Babchuk, Blackhawks

Selected before: Ben Eager (23), Alex Steen (24), Cam Ward (25)

So Bergenheim is far from a "bust" for a 22nd-overall pick, but he's another first rounder who's not a star, so it's fair to throw him in for consideration of what might have been. Honestly though, the bottom half of 2002's first round is hardly an all-star group. Bergenheim isn't the scoring power forward many of us dreamed of, and his one-year banishment under Wang's Rules hurt him and us, but he's a pretty useful player (who the Isles PK misses right now), and he measures up alright with most of the 2002 first round, actually.

 

Rick DiPietro

2000, 1st Round, 1st Overall | NHL Totals: 273 GP, 117-112, 2.79, .905

Selected before: Dany Heatley (2), Marian Gaborik (3), Rostislav Klesla (4), Raffi Torres (5)

I think it's a stretch to call a goalie with 273 games played and an All-Star peak form a draft "bust." Any negatives with DiPietro come from: 1) the decisions (and moves) Milbury made to draft a goalie first overall just a few years after taking a (quite good) goalie nearly as high; 2) the 15-year deal that was Wang's doing (and despite its tomfoolery, reflective of a player who wanted to be part of the solution on Long Island, which is rare), and 3) the injury plague that began after that contract was signed.

The evaluation of DiPietro's talent turned out to be dead-on. But if draft evaluation is about the franchise's decision-making at the time, DiPietro enters the discussion through no fault of his on-ice talent. Speaking of which...

 

Raffi Torres

2000, 1st Round, 5th Overall | NHL Totals: 396 GP, 89 G, 74 A

Selected before: Scott Hartnell (6), Ron Hainsey (13), Alexander Frolov (20), Brad Boyes (24), Steve Ott (25)

I'd expect more out of a 5th-overall pick, but it's not like that 2000 draft was littered with stars. There was the top three, and then everyone else. Would DiPietro have been available in this slot if the Isles had taken Heatley or Gaborik? We'll never know, even though you'll get revisionist insiders telling you one way or the other.

Did Torres profile as a more prolific power forward than he's become? Yes. He's not as originally billed, but neither is most of the class taken behind him. If the Isles thought they could get a #1 goalie and a star forward with two picks in the top five, they were only half right -- or they messed up the order.

 

Corey Trivino

2008, 2nd Round, 36th Overall | Sophomore at BU

Selected just after: Some guy we don't know yet (Nicolas Deschamps, Anaheim)

Selected before: A bunch of guys we don't know about yet, although the Isles took Aaron Ness and Travis Hamonic later in that round.

Okay that's not exactly fair for a kid who was selected just 18 months ago. But it is notable that Trivino was a high second-round pick, while fellow members of his class (Hamonic, Donovan, Martin) are already getting more praise heaped upon them. Still, as with all prospects, talk to me when they show up in an NHL uniform; then we'll really know what we have. He's not a bust, but we needed someone on this list more recent than 2005, and 2006, 2008, and 2009 gave us some pretty nice first-rounders.

 

Cory Stillman

2001, 4th Round, 101st Overall | NHL Totals: 0 GP

Selected just after: Two and three picks behind Ray Emery (99) and Jordin Tootoo (98)

Selected before: Christian Ehrhoff (106)

This one is extremely unfair, and Stillman can't be called a "bust" given he was just a fourth rounder. I just thought I'd mention him since he was the Islanders top pick in 2001, thanks to Milbury dealing the picks before then, with Yashin and assorted maneuvers that cost the Isles the 2nd overall pick (Spezza) and the top pick in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. If you're giving up that much of your future, plus young assets like Zdeno Chara, you better score with what you acquired and with the picks you have left. Milbury didn't.

It's pretty sad all the moves it took for Milbury just to get us one exciting playoff series.

 

Robert Nilsson

2003, 1st Round, 15th Overall | NHL Totals: 217 GP, 31 G, 72 A

Selected just after: Brent Seabrook, Blackhawks

Selected before: Perhaps you've heard this -- Zach Parise (17)? And Ryan Getzlaf (19), Ryan Kesler (23), Mike Richards (24), Corey Perry (28), and, heh, Jeff Tambellini (27). Also: Shea Weber (49).

Nilsson isn't an awful hockey player. He's just nothing like most of the first round in his draft year. It's fair to look at his career totals at 15th overall and Bergenheim's career totals at 22nd overall and ask, "Why hate on one and not the other?" Well, seven draft slots' difference aside, sometimes you pass on a gem no one saw when you make a bad pick; for Nilsson, the Islanders passed on a veritable All-Star team at every position. That hurts.

I didn't mind dumping him in the Smyth rental. I still don't. The less said about this pick, the better. Good bye, 2000s. And good riddance. May the 2010s bring us so, so, SO much more.

Poll
Who was the most disappointing Isles draft pick from 2000-2009?
Ryan O'Marra - 15th overall, 0 GP
56 votes
Robert Nilsson - 15th overall, passing over a list of All-Stars
83 votes
Petteri Nokelainen - 16th overall without the high-end skill to justify it
9 votes
Rick DiPietro - 1st overall. At 273 GP, a stretch to call him "bust"
52 votes
Raffi Torres - 5th overall. At 396 GP, also a stretch - but part of the 2000 malaise
12 votes

212 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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You left out the most obvious, which is my pick: 2009 1st Round, 1st Overall – John Tavares.

Bust!!

Fire Garth Snow!

by AP77 on Dec 31, 2009 5:02 PM EST reply actions  

Eh

I’ve eaten in one resturant more times than JT has played NHL games, before deciding whether or not it was good…

Happy New Year LhH!
 (esp. you, Mr. Dominick)

by IamJacksSplitSave on Dec 31, 2009 5:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Of course, AP ;)

And happy new year to everybody. Thanks for making this place fun.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 5:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Trivino, O'Marra and some other musings

I think it’s a bit unfair to call Trivino a bust quite yet, he had a decent frosh year on the national championship team and still has another year or two at BU to make up for this so far subpar year. Are we calling Aaron Ness a bust because he is in the middle of a very poor sophomore season at UM?

As for O’Marra, I was and always be a fan of his even though he has struggled since he got injured his final year in the OHL. Remember he is still only 22 and has improved his play in the AHL this year. I believe he still has an NHL future if only as a Nate Thompson-like 3-4th line grinder who can kill penalties.

Torres is a bust for where he was picked and what he was supposed to be. Now he’s nothing more then a “depth forward” who the Caps passed over for Jason Chimera.

I have an ego larger than Mikko Koskinen

by David Hanssen on Dec 31, 2009 5:06 PM EST reply actions  

I’m definitely being unfair to Trivino by even including him in this post. I just wanted a high draft pick from later in the decade before this became just a list of 2000-2005, but wasn’t including him in the poll

And O’Marra: That’s part of the point, these high picks will get more chances to become serviceable NHL players, and his story certainly isn’t over. But for his term with the Islanders (and for how the players behind him developed), he was a bust.

Now [Torres]’s nothing more then a "depth forward" who the Caps passed over for Jason Chimera.

Boy, when you put it that way … Actually, a lot of people are bigger Torres fans than I am. I just see him as a big winger who occasionally scores and occasionally takes a run at someone, but I only see him every once in a while these days.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted for Robert Nilson because of the talent we left on the table- and tired of still listening to Pierre MacGuire rant about it. Plus I really like the idea of seeing second generation names on the back of jersys! I couldn’t bring myself to vote for Ricky because we need more guys who want to be Islanders- But that draft was Mad Mike’s finest F’-up. Give me Luongo and Heatly/Gaborik any day! Lets burn a M.M. effigy for fun tonight. Bon farwell aughts.

by since70too on Dec 31, 2009 6:01 PM EST reply actions  

Lets burn a M.M. effigy for fun tonight.

It’s a must for any proper New Year’s bash. —Martha Stewart Living

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions  

It was a tough one for me between Torres and DiPietro.

O’Mara is a bust, but we got a fair deal from trading him.

I’ve always felt that you can’t say someone is a bust just for who you passed over when you selected him due to the Draft being a crap shoot sometimes. That being said, how come the Devils seem to always have a let first rounder and never go wrong.

DiPietro is so close, not even the injuries, just that Consensus says that Luongo is the better goaltender by far. Yes, I’m a Luongo fan and my view of the two is probably tinted by that. If DiP had a real contract and might be a FA anytime soon, I’d definitely consider him a bust. If anything the 15 year contract is giving him plenty of time to prove the critics on Long Island wrong.

Torres was another Milbury hype job so he wins in my view. I mean the dropoff between him and the 4 forwards taken before him is insane. Not only that, but the Islanders could have used that pick to take DiPietro and used the first overall for Heatley. I could go through the list rather easy of forwards who Milbury said would help save the Franchise and never became that player or got traded as a “I’ll throw in this youngster” in a deal for no good reason.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Dec 31, 2009 6:33 PM EST reply actions  

I could go through the list rather easy of forwards who Milbury said would help save the Franchise and never became that player or got traded as a "I’ll throw in this youngster" in a deal for no good reason.

Amazing, that is like one of the Sacred Tenets of Milburyism: “I will draft this guy, he’s a savior. Then I will be disappointed by his rookie year. Then I will toss the dink in as a throw-in in a trade because the kid’s just no good, he can’t compete.”

If we accept that some kids with good raw skills can be ruined in the development process, I wonder which ones Milbury effectively ruined and which ones never had a chance? Probably could be the topic of a dissertation.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Well at the very least he always called everyone up too early. But that was part of his own fault, he would hype someone up, then when the Islanders were halfway through a horrible season everyone would be clamoring to see what they could do.

Then as you said, he would get annoyed when they had a tough rookie year and usually dispense of them. I think Salo was the only player who got off to a bad start as a rookie, went to the Minors and then came back better. But he still had to lead his team in the UHL to the Championship almost singlehandedly.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Dec 31, 2009 6:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I’ve always felt that you can’t say someone is a bust just for who you passed over when you selected him due to the Draft being a crap shoot sometimes.

That’s one of the things I find fun about this topic. I agree with you, for one, but the whole topic is tied up in a lot of uncertain variables like that, where one classic miss can be totally innocent (on the club or the player), so you have to rely on the aggregate to guess whether a team is really failing.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions  

2008 draft

 I look at that 2008 draft haul and see six players I can picture as NHLers. That is both impressive and so delusional I’m ashamed to write it.)

Dom.- I don’t think your being dilusional, I think you’re being conservative! Of this group, Bailey, Hamonic, Trivino, Ness, Toews, Niemi, Petrov ,Donovan, Ullstrom, Poulin, Martin, Spurgeon, Dibenedetto, only Trivino, Toews, and Ulstrom seem improbable to make “the show” at some point! O.K. I’m pushing it with Ness, Niemi and Spurgeon, But I still count seven probable N.H.L.ers from one draft! That about equals the rest of the aughts total!

by since70too on Dec 31, 2009 6:58 PM EST reply actions  

Oh I hear you. I’m just figuring the odds are always against such a good haul (even though the Isles had more picks than usual), so I suspect I’m being fooled by the fact it’s so early and so many are looking good.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Dec 31, 2009 7:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Well let’s keep looking at it through our rose coloured glasses- most of our defence for the next decade could be playing in this years WJC. :-)

by since70too on Dec 31, 2009 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Aside from DP they have all been busts...

In all fairness DP has only been held back by injury, not a misjudgment of talent. Nilsson and Torres have at least stayed on NHL rosters, while O’Marra and Nokelainan have been complete busts in the truest sense. Still Torres being a top 5 might be the biggest bust.

by Judgegavel on Jan 1, 2010 10:34 AM EST reply actions  

It’s not that DP is bad, per se, it’s that it wasn’t necessary to take him in the No. 1 spot. Milbury was trying to make a splash by taking the first American goalie No. 1 overall. As a result, he screwed everything up. He didn’t need to make the trade up to get him – and further, with Luongo in tow, he didn’t need to take DP at all.

Plus, as someone said upthread, his lack of patience with the guys he took was unreal. A lot of them WERE good picks – but he traded them before we knew. So it was just an asinine revolving door of trading good prospects for lesser players.

Of course I’m preaching to the converted – but it’s just maddening to me still.

by Arbourisgod on Jan 1, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course I’m preaching to the converted – but it’s just maddening to me still.

Hee hee, it’s like a support group here.

Lighthouse Hockey: Eyes on Tavares, mug full of Moulson.

by Dominik on Jan 1, 2010 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

My name is Tony, and I am an Islander fan…

SHOOOOOOOT!!!! Anon

by burpchelischili on Jan 2, 2010 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Milbury was trying to make a splash by taking the first American goalie No. 1 overall.

I do not agree. I think that MM already decided to pick Rick back when the Isles were picking 5th overall… and when the Isles won the draft lottery, his pick did not change becaused he already wanted the kid.

Im sorry but the fact that anyone would call him a “draft bust” is just so frickin stupid. When you define the term in any reasonable way, Rick doesnt fit it.

Let Us Go, Islanders!
(Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)

by TheMetalChick on Jan 1, 2010 9:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I still think that if Rick was from ANYWHERE but Boston, we never would have taken him.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by Mark D on Jan 2, 2010 12:21 AM EST up reply actions  

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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 LW 10/2/1989 190 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 190 6-1
Mark Eaton 4 D 5/6/1977 215 6-1
Michael Grabner 40 RW 10/5/1987 185 6-0
Travis Hamonic 3 D 8/16/1990 203 6-2
Milan Jurcina 27 D 6/7/1983 253 6-4
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 196 6-1
Matt Martin 17 LW 3/8/1989 210 6-3
Al Montoya 35 G 2/13/1985 203 6-2
Mike Mottau 10 D 3/19/1978 190 6-0
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 205 6-1
Evgeni Nabokov 20 G 7/25/1975 200 6-0
Aaron Ness 55 D 5/18/1990 170 5-10
Nino Niederreiter 25 RW 9/8/1992 205 6-2
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 184 6-0
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 205 6-0
Jay Pandolfo 29 LW 12/27/1974 190 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 15 LW 3/24/1983 193 6-0
Marty Reasoner 16 C 2/26/1977 205 6-1
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 201 6-1
Brian Rolston 11 LW 2/21/1973 215 6-2
Steve Staios 24 D 7/28/1973 200 6-1
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 202 6-0
Tim Wallace 36 RW 8/6/1984 207 6-1
Ty Wishart 6 D 5/19/1988 222 6-4
Calvin de Haan 44 D 5/9/1991 187 6-1

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