Will Islanders Have Their December Swoon?
It's known informally among some Islanders fans as the December swoon: The time when a season that previously looked like it could go either way takes a turn for the worse.
I'm not big on arbitrary calendar delineations (Did something change from Nov. 30 to Dec. 1? No.), so I ascribe this idea more to the fact that any NHL team enters December with about 23-27 games under its belt and exits the month with about half the season done. .500 hockey at the first-quarter pole is okay. But in the shootout era, quasi-".500" hockey at the half-way point (i.e., soon after New Year's) means you have some real catching up to do to get into the playoff picture.
For reference, the Islanders went 4-2-6-2 in November (W-OTW-L-OTL), for 14 points in 14 games.
The Islanders have 15 games this month, beginning with a difficult four on the road. But nine of the remaining 11 are at home. Three games against the Rangers this month, two each against the Flyers, Maple Leafs and Lightning. Injuries aside, there's no reason they can't maintain at least a point-per-game pace through the holidays ... but of course that is not enough to keep pace with the playoff bubble.
And how would it compare to recent Decembers?
| December | GP | W(reg) | OTW | L(reg) | OTL | GF | GA | GD | Ppct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 0.538% |
| 2007 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 0.500% |
| 2008 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 0.143% |
Note: Goal figures do not include the phantom shootout goal, which is found in the laboratory and in NHL standings but not found in nature
December '08 began with a 10-game losing streak and didn't see a win until the day after Christmas. That was when John Tavares went from possibility to likelihood. Throw out last year's disastrous December and you have two similar stories of playoff bubblehood in the Ted Nolan years:
2007
The Islanders entered December 2007 hanging on to 8th place in the conference (12-9-2) and exited at 19-15-3. Going .500 for that month actually bumped them up to 6th place on Jan. 1 -- albeit tied with three other teams who also had 42 points and would ultimately make the playoffs instead of the Isles.
2006
2006 also saw the Isles tied for the 8th seed at the beginning of December, at 12-10-2. A 7-6 month left them in the same spot in the standings -- tied for 8th on points but technically in 9th because of the tie-breaker.
So were they December swoons? In a way. They entered above .500 but couldn't keep that up. More precisely, these Decembers past were reminders that ultimately, ".500" doesn't cut it in the bonus-point-inflated NHL. You have to keep extending your lead above a point per game pace, or else in early April you end up with 82 points, which is a full five wins out of the playoffs.
Three years ago, the Ryan Smyth acquisition and the Wade Dubielewicz Miracle helped them squeeze into the 8th seed by season's end. Two years ago, Rick DiPietro's All-Star Skills Competition "I #$%ed my hip" injury [note: view that video with caution. It still stings.] helped send the team from 6th place on New Year's Day to the 5th overall pick in June.
That's the "new NHL": It really is about parity in a lot of ways -- but one of those ways is that shootout loss-aided ".500" obscures the fact that your team is actually below average. So if the Isles "swoon" through this month to the tune of only a ".500" point-per-game pace, it won't be the worst thing for the progress of this rebuild. But it will mean they're even further back in the playoff chase than when the month began.
What about you? What are your hopes and expectations for the final 15 games of 2009?
0 recs |
27 comments
|
Comments
DeCember Swoon
I think the start of the season has been a surprise for all of us. I think we expected the worst but hoped for the best. Having said that I don’t beleive the Islanders are a playoff team this year. I do beleive we are on the right track. We don’t have enough depth or talent and injuries are starting to take a toll. Stay the course, add some talent through smart trades, get a top 5 draft pick, sign some free agents, hope some of our young talent in juniors and the minors develop and next year is the year we really can start talking playoffs.
by pdecanio on Dec 2, 2009 8:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Welcome
Thanks for joining. I agree 100%, that’s the plan.
I wasn’t in any way expecting a playoff year, so the longer they stay close is just a bonus that makes this year that much more fun. Another bonus: Seeing the Rangers fall after their inflated start.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I hope for the Swoon
I still think the worst thing that could happen to this rebuilding team would be to squeak into the playoffs or come in 9th just missing it. Then they just get a so-so pick. We are only John Tavares and Moulson better than last year, and a goalie that keeps them in the game most nights. They really need another top 3-5 pick again more than they need to make the playoffs this year.
That said, I love that they are in most games. I love that they have been surprising a lot of teams. I love the Moulson surprise production and that JT has been a bigger difference maker on this team than I would have ever thought. Go Isles
by empeg9000 on Dec 2, 2009 10:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have to admit, if they went into March within striking distance of a playoff seed but then a plague of groin injuries and witches’ hexes took guys out of the lineup and ended up sending them down several pegs in the standings, I wouldn’t cry. Job well done, darn the late-season luck. So I root for a win each game and see what falls our way by the end.
Last year was awful, yet somehow ideal in that they’d dug a big enough hole (and had enough injuries) early on that we got to see the young kids show some promise and collect some wins while still getting Tavares. I’m not hoping for more misery, but the reality of today’s league is there’s not a huge gap between the last playoff seeds and, say, 25th overall. And this franchise could definitely use a #5-6 pick more than the morale boost that would leave us with the #14.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 10:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I believe we will def hit our December swoon if we bring DiPietro back mid month.
by patioM on Dec 2, 2009 10:21 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
exactly why?
why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?
by bob l on Dec 2, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
All depends on how he does and how he’s evaluated, doesn’t it?
That’s going to be a fun, delicate situation to watch the brass navigate. I assume they’ll ease him in though.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Off-topic, but...
Chris Campoli was a healthy scratch last night. “He has to be better,” was the word from Sens coach Clouston.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 10:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
I blame his wife/fiancee/whatever
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
by WebBard on Dec 2, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect that...
there will not be a swoon. I suspect that we will keep muddling along as we have been. We would need to have about 70 points by the deadline for Garth to consider buying assets. I suspect that we will be about 5-10 points short of that. Garth will then sell off tradeable assets like Sutton, Biron, and Park. Weight and Sim may go as well. He will then begin plugging in Bridgeport Boys whenever possible and resting core players if they have a hint of injury.
by BCISLEMAN on Dec 2, 2009 12:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
15 games coming up, a lot of them winniable. Here’s how I think we’ll finish the month barring some huge injuries (Whats that, Moulson, Tavares, Okposo got into a fight while playing XBox 360 and are out for the month?)
5-4-3 above 500 and 13 points in 15 games sounds right on course.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
by WebBard on Dec 2, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Of course, I can’t do my math. That should be
6-6-3 for 15 points in 15 games again.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
by WebBard on Dec 2, 2009 5:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
This does not help my plea for 3-point regulation wins. Add two columns and think of the math fun!
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
First
The Isles need to play a game in December, and I see no evidence of that happening.
by AP77 on Dec 2, 2009 5:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Prediction
I don’t normally do this, but I’d bet a $100 they do that by Thursday night.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 5:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are we adding any new pieces to capitalize in DEC
From what Ive been reading supposidly Wang has given Garth the green light to add player(s) to help get into the play-offs (and shed some more light on the lighthouse project). Also from what I read it doesnt seem that the NHL makes any major moves at this time of the yr not sure why but Joe Thorton trade which was a few yr back was the only trade in Dec, but in any regards who do you feel could walk in this dressing room this month and really give us boost or an edge to get us some more points to have a better position for the play-offs.
OT – seems our defencive prospects are mall doing very well exept for Ness.
Hamonic and DeHaan invites to Can
Klymentyv – Russia
Donovan – USA
Not sure if coiencidence but Ness is playing for coach Lucia who came under fire with the handleing of KO. Not sure if this has anything to do with the other but the Gophers r struggling this yr plus Shroeder and another guy Olsen are also having poor seasons
there have also been rumours that Ness might transfer to N.D but that makes no sense cause he would have to sit out 1 season that cant b good 4 developemnt, plus the other rumour was he was heading to the WHL team who will b hosting the CHL cup
Not sure whats going on with Ness, is he a bust, or is he under the wrong system, if not for his measurements this guy has a 1st rnd pedigree and seemed to do well at the isles rookie camp. wHAT i DONT WANT IS ANOTHER fIGREN WHO SEEMED TO B thriving at WHL and WJC level but was sent to sweden 4 a yr and now is heading down somewhere in the ECHL farm team.
Anyhow there is no reason why Ness shouldnt b leading power play on the USA wjc team this is very disapointing and maybve not the end of the world but definetly a big step in the wrong direction
by steelermafia on Dec 2, 2009 6:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Honestly, the only new face to enter in December will likely be Rick DiPietro. (FYI, regarding December movement: the NHL has a roster freeze that begins just before and ends just after Christmas.)
As far as Ness goes, I’m not terribly worried because his team is awful, so no one looks good in that context. Minnesota just lost 6-0 at home to Michigan. I don’t know if constantly losing players to the NHL is catching up to them, or what. So being on a bad team hurts, but he has some physical development to go through, regardless.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 2, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That Minnesota loss was on the road — but still, yes, they’ve been poor.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/reports/?td=34
Ness is fine. I think he benefits from staying in school. Minnesota struggling is OK. It’s more of a problem if players keep deserting mid-season, as Sam Lofquist just did, and Okposo did a couple years ago.
by Arbourisgod on Dec 2, 2009 11:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah! Thanks for that. Knew I should have fact-checked the friend who called crying over the loss.
Yeah, I don’t see a benefit to Ness leaving. But I’m never in a rush.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
by Dominik on Dec 3, 2009 12:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
thats not the point
Obviously Ness would benefit by staying in school gaining more size and experience. The point though is that those on the USA WJ hockey team do not feel he has anything to offer the team. So MR. Hockey (AKA Ness) isnt seen as one of the top D-men amongst his age group where I felt we had a steal in the draft. He should b getting better not declining and points r points but even DeHaan not having the players or the points still made the Canadian team
by steelermafia on Dec 3, 2009 11:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
It’s true he’s not looking particularly special right now … Just saying, I watch every Minnesota game just about, and he’s been fine on a shaky team with lots of talent, but playing disheveled. Plenty of solid d-men have come out of that system, even if it takes a bit …. see: Keith Ballard, Alex Goligoski, Paul Martin, etc…
by Arbourisgod on Dec 3, 2009 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
leave poor Keith alone...he's in enough trouble as it is
first he blows his coverage and allows an Atlanta goal, then he whacks his own goalie in the head and nearly gives him a lobotomy, then he plays a game against his former teammate and goalie, crashes into him and knocks his head back into the goalpost maybe concussing him…and then Adam Foote uses his face for a punching back before he can even get to his feet. This has NOT bee National Keith Ballard Week for crying out loud!!!
by BCISLEMAN on Dec 3, 2009 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Islanders Drafts
After 10+ years of following Islanders Hockey, I’m just happy when the 1st rounders aren’t a bust. So far we have Tavares, Bailey and Okposo the last three years. If anyone else ends up on the roster and an NHL level talent, its just topping.
"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."
by WebBard on Dec 3, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Things are getting better
we have five first rounders on our roster if you include DP and a sixth in the system. Toronto has all of two either on the team or in the system…and we will be keeping our next two first rounders while theirs go to Beantown.
by BCISLEMAN on Dec 3, 2009 11:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Actually 7 (not on our own but FA and trades)
Tamby and Weight
JT
Bailey
Okposo
Begreniem
DP
(09) Dehaan
(08) draft though Petrov, Trivino, Ness, Toews (ISS had 1st rnd grades i am missing 1) but Hamonic and Donavan r making up for no first rnd picks in 07 draft
by steelermafia on Dec 4, 2009 12:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

by 


























