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An Impossible Dream? Maybe not.

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Star-divide

Former Ranger coach Tom Renney has called the Islanders "an excellent team, a playoff team". Is he right? Maybe. If our core can stay healthy, if what I call the Golden Line--Moulson--Tavares--Okposo--can stay golden, if we can get significant secondary scoring from a second line, our other two lines, and our defense, and if our goaltending stays solid, why not?

At the end of February, we will have 20 games left and a possible 40 points. Teams that go anywhere in the playoffs just about always have a March / April surge at .600 or better, so lets say we do even better and win at a .750 pace or 30 out of 40 points. You need 100 points to be assured of a playoff spot, so I figure we would need 70 points or more by the end of February to have a serious shot.

Given that we are a few pieces short of a championship core and that Garth needs for the 2010 draft to be very productive, how should he handle such a situation? Here is what my strategy would be.

Assume that the Ducks and the Bluejackets are fading at deadline time and decide to sell. Garth trades picks to the Ducks and gets Teemu Selanne and Nick Boynton. He trades Comeau and a pick to the Jackets for Raffi Torres. Then he takes steps to ensure a productive draft. He trades Andy and Marty to the Chicago Blackhawks for their first and second round picks. The Blackhawks need to shore up their goaltending for the playoffs and they need a tough physical defender who can score. This gets them that without putting them over the cap limit.

Garth then has a three team trade that sends Frans to Boston, Bergeron to Phoenix, and we get Boston's and Phoenix's lesser first rounders. Better yet, Phoenix sends its better pick to Boston and we get Boston's Toronto pick. Boston also gives us center prospect Carl Soderberg (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/carl_soderberg). This makes Phoenix more competitive and keeps Boston competitive with $4 mil plus in cap relief that will enable it to keep the rest of the core together for 2010-11.

Gordon goes with a three line strategy--Moulson--Tavares--Okposo, Bergenheim--Weight--Selanne, and Tambellini--Bailey--Hunter. All three lines get approximately equal playing time although maybe the top line is given somewhat more than the other two. The fourth line is Torres--Thompson--Jackman. Boynton fills Andy's spot and role on defense.

Let's say that Bergy is really inspired by playing on a line with his legendary countryman and the second line explodes. Roly, backed up by either DP or Mikko, sees the Cup that got away in 2006 in front of him and he is on fire. We finish with 100 points and in the 4th seed, face Buffalo, and blow through them in 5. Then we go against the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins and it gets real interesting. Could happen.

Poll
Could the Islanders be a playoff team this year?
Yes
27 votes
No
11 votes
Maybe
9 votes

47 votes | Poll has closed

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If our core can stay healthy, if what I call the Golden Line—Moulson—Tavares—Okposo—can stay golden, if we can get significant secondary scoring from a second line, our other two lines, and our defense, and if our goaltending stays solid, why not?

IF all those somehow happened (remarkable health + secondary AND blueline scoring + goaltending), then I think they could be in the bubble conversation come March. But they’re due for so many ups and downs before then.

As for the rest, all of those trade proposals are like NHL10/message board deals: Impossible dreams indeed.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 4, 2009 11:50 AM EST reply actions  

As for the rest, all of those trade proposals are like NHL10/message board deals: Impossible dreams indeed.

Disagree. If Marty and Andy are having good seasons, a late first and a late second round pick would not be too much to give up…especially since it would help fill vital holes in the Hawk roster.

And if Frans is having a 40-50 point season, why wouldn’t he be worth an early first rounder or two late ones plus a prospect?

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 4, 2009 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Completely agree Dom.

At best, the Islanders seem to be a bubble team in March. There are just too many tough divisional games to come this year, I just can’t see the Islanders taking enough points from these games to garner a playoff spot.

by Cal_IslandersFan on Nov 4, 2009 12:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Islanders could make the playoffs, but a lot of things would have to fall together.

No doubt the recent success of the club has had me thinking about playoffs, but it’s just way too early, especially for a club like this. I’m loving the success and play of the team this past week, but I tend to think that it is a minor hot streak.

On the trades aspect of the post, seems like too much wishful thinking.

by Cal_IslandersFan on Nov 4, 2009 12:48 PM EST reply actions  

just keep playing competitive hockey and i wont complain or worry about playoffs- yet, last season was terribly hard to watch, this season, EVEN the ugly results, only had 1 game qualify as hard to watch, the rest of the games the NHL would be smart to market because they are full of energy, hits, and scoring chances — and that’s good enough for me as of now

by bob l on Nov 4, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions  

totally agree bob. That Habs game was the only game that I could hardly bear watching.
Every other game has contained a lot of hard work excitement and effort. In fact if a few of them contained just a few more minutes of that, they would have been wins.

Lets go Islanders...

by TheMetalChick on Nov 4, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

The five minutes in Boston are what still sting me. They finish that one off, people might’ve already been paying attention, and this roll might have begun sooner.

But granted: Overarching point is they’ve been so much more fun to watch this year already.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 4, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

If We Make The Playoffs

Then we are ahead of the developmental curve.

Usually five year plans start with two seasons of no playoffs. A playoff year and a first or second round knockout, Next year at the very least second round or confrence finals and the next year being a definite Stanley Cup contender.

Theres no reason to bank everything on this season. As much as I’d like to contend, I’d be happy if they just made the playoffs. That means we’re taking steps forward already.

by Mark D on Nov 4, 2009 3:48 PM EST reply actions  

I guess the point is...

that we really need to get one and preferably two or three potentially elite prospects from this very front loaded draft. How do we do that if we are competing for a playoff spot? The only way that I can think of is to work a trade to get Boston’s Toronto pick. If Frans has a breakout season, he might look very appealing to Boston with its cap situation—especially if Toronto starts to improve and that pick becomes less valuable.

Again, it is probably moot unless the Isles have at least 70 points at the end of February. If they have less, then players like Andy Sutton, Marty Biron, and Richard Park get moved. The value Doug Weight has to this team is such that I don’t move him for anything less than a second round pick. We might move Roly instead of Marty if there are enough teams willing to pony up prize assets for a goalie with a championship resume.

My thinking on the draft is evolving. I had thought that if we get the #1 overall, we simply draft Taylor Hall, Josh’s former linemate. I think now that we should look at a trade with perhaps Anaheim for their two picks +. The plus would depend on the value of the picks. Both are looking good right now. I would like to get 1 & 1 of the following forwards and defensemen:

Forwards: Teemu Pulkinnen, Vladimir Tarasenko, Nino Niederreiter

Defensemen: Troy Rutkowski, Erik Gudbranson, Jon Merrill

If we are a playoff team, trading third rounders for Selanne and Boynton would seem an inexpensive upgrade. This is especially so since Boynton would be on my summer shopping list anyway. Even Selanne, although he is said to be retiring, might be a good asset. If there is a nice playoff run and we draft Pulkinnen, he might feel a year or two on the Island would be a good idea.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 4, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

looking at this game even though I know Hunts isn't back yet...

Niederreiter might be the guy we really need. Someone with speed, agility, talent, and skill but who can also be a real physical presence in front of the net.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 4, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions  

we’ll never agree on our value of draft picks – i seem to hold them in higher regard then you do, or you don’t think that other teams value theirs as highly as i would, if i were their GM.

“If this team is pushing for a playoff spot in March, how do you not do what you can to help them win? " – well, how many more times do we need to make a “playoff push” to get knocked out in the first round, mortgaging part of our future thru yielded draft picks or prospects for a veteran influence that doesn’t pan out. how many times have we made the playoffs and gotten knocked out and it has cost us a draft slot, and we end up with a scott scissions instead of a jaromir jagr? i don’t need to rehash all those bad picks, or missed picks – we’ve all cringed at them for years.

personally i would prefer to see them falter – a higher draft pick would help us a lot more than a few playoff home games. if they are in a position to challenge for a spot, then i make a minor tweak or two – maybe do the selanne trade for a conditional 4th or 3rd rounder, and make a very public statement praising your up and coming young core of players, who have developed ahead of schedule this season, and that you stand behind them and believe in them. because you believe in them, you feel that breaking it up for a short term fix is not the best path for the franchise to take.

if you don’t make the playoffs, let the media hacks take their potshots. who cares. letting your players know you want them here and that you believe in them goes a lot longer than ‘out in 5’.

by nullzero00 on Nov 9, 2009 7:58 PM EST reply actions  

I would trade for Boynton if I’ve traded away Sutton because Boynton’s somebody I’d like on my roster anyway. Of course, the Ducks are unlikely to part with Selanne unless he agrees, so perhaps it wouldn’t happen anyway.

I think that Chicago would gladly part with a late first and a late second round pick if it would not only fill huge holes on their roster and make them a more realistic Cup contender but also enable them to fix their postseason cap problem.

If the team is making a serious run for the playoffs, it would be damaging to morale if Garth did not make reasonable efforts to improve the team for a playoff run. I am not talking about trading core players or first or second round picks either.

That said, I agree with you. It would be better if we made a bid, faded in late January, and Garth started moving veterans to prepare for the draft. I no longer think that we will get the #1 overall, but even if we get the #3 or #4, we might be able to work a trade down with Anaheim or Phoenix that would net us two mid first rounders and a second rounder. Then if we were able to deal Roly and Sutton for Chicago’s first and second rounders, we might be able to come away with two quality forwards and a defenseman—in fact two defensemen with our own second round pick. My forwards would be Niederreiter and Pulkkinen and my defensemen would be Rutkowski and Tinordi (unless Gudbranson is still on the board because of his injury).

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 9, 2009 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

personally i would prefer to see them falter – a higher draft pick would help us a lot more than a few playoff home games.

Personally people who say this kind of thing will never make sense to me. To see the team that you supposedly love falter- and actually PREFER that- is illogical and no shiny draft pick will ever make me feel otherwise.

Lets go Islanders...

by TheMetalChick on Nov 9, 2009 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

part of me would LOVE to see them make the playoffs this year...

especially if the Rangers do not. My brother would have a hard time living that down after all the mouthing off he has done.

In the long run, though, a trade down from a top five and maybe a trade up from a late first rounder and maybe they have three mid first round picks that might just finally give them a championship calibre core. We’ll see.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 10, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

really? this team isn’t playoff-hockey ready. i’d rather bite the bullet and suffer for one year, get a good pick, then have a more complete team next year. what we’re talking about is whether we should trade to get in the playoffs (which will cost you young players and/or draft picks) vs. letting the season run it’s course if we are on the bubble looking in, and hope that we just bomb the rest of the games and get the higher pick.

finishing 17th sucks. no playoffs, and your 1st rounder is middle of the road – the worst of both sides. if we’re not going to make the playoffs, we should be playing mostly rookies & kids from the minors to see what our farm system has, and hopefully that leads us to a higher pick because we let the last month and a half’s worth of points go buh-bye. I don’t want to see another Ryan Smyth trade.

by nullzero00 on Nov 15, 2009 4:25 PM EST up reply actions  

This team COULD be ready for the playoffs...

although it is far from ready for a serious Cup run. Bottom half of the East top 8 is weak, so it could happen. I would not want Garth to trade away any significant assets, but if he could get a Nick Boynton or a Raffi Torres who might help the team in the future as well as in a playoff run and it didn’t cost heavy duty assets, I don’t see why not.

If the team has less than 65-70 points at the deadline, then your plan makes some sense. But you simply cannot bale out on the team if they manage to be competitive enough to at least be on the bubble in March. That would be very destructive to morale.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 15, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions  

if this team, (as is) is good enough to battle for a playoff spot come feb, then i hope there are/were no trades, because by then, i’ll have enjoyed watching all of them gel into the team that they are, and i wouldn’t want anything coming in to break the chemistry up… and also, take a page from HoF’er LL next door, he rarely makes big moves and more often than not just shores up depth issues before the playoffs

while i wont ever say i want them to fail, the reality right NOW is that if we don’t play our A game (and sometimes our A+ game) we usually will find ourselves on the losing end – our A and A+ games sometimes aren’t and wont be enough too, because, talent-wise, we are behind 24-26 other teams… and if that’s the case, then i can understand the sentiment that says, well, if we are going to be bad, lets be bad enough to make it worth our while

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 10, 2009 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

alright – now we’re on the same page. i would love to see boynton, as i would also love another 1st and/or 2nd rounder. i would even love to see Snow pull some of the draft magioc he did last year and work his way thru the first round to get what he wanted. I love the fact that the kids are coming along nicely, and keeping almost every game close.

as for trying to upgrade the roster, you can always say that you “tried” and just stand pat or make inquiries. definitely want to avoid trading anyone important, top picks in this draft included.

by nullzero00 on Nov 9, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions  

To me, Nielsen is the one player who might be a difference maker for the draft. He would not likely be part of Garth’s core but might put up some big production numbers and rate a big deal at the deadline. What if he has 35-40 points at the deadline and another team’s center goes down? Could bring a first rounder, another pick and some prospects. That is a little iffy, but only a little with all of the injuries this year. The more first and early second round picks we can get for this draft, the more likely it is that we will complete the core by next September.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 9, 2009 10:03 PM EST up reply actions  

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New York Rangers 55 37 13 5 79
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Pittsburgh 56 32 19 5 69
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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 LW 10/2/1989 190 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 190 6-1
Mark Eaton 4 D 5/6/1977 215 6-1
Michael Grabner 40 RW 10/5/1987 185 6-0
Travis Hamonic 3 D 8/16/1990 203 6-2
Milan Jurcina 27 D 6/7/1983 253 6-4
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 196 6-1
Matt Martin 17 LW 3/8/1989 210 6-3
Al Montoya 35 G 2/13/1985 203 6-2
Mike Mottau 10 D 3/19/1978 190 6-0
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 205 6-1
Evgeni Nabokov 20 G 7/25/1975 200 6-0
Aaron Ness 55 D 5/18/1990 170 5-10
Nino Niederreiter 25 RW 9/8/1992 205 6-2
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 184 6-0
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 205 6-0
Jay Pandolfo 29 LW 12/27/1974 190 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 15 LW 3/24/1983 193 6-0
Marty Reasoner 16 C 2/26/1977 205 6-1
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 201 6-1
Brian Rolston 11 LW 2/21/1973 215 6-2
Steve Staios 24 D 7/28/1973 200 6-1
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 202 6-0
Tim Wallace 36 RW 8/6/1984 207 6-1
Ty Wishart 6 D 5/19/1988 222 6-4
Calvin de Haan 44 D 5/9/1991 187 6-1

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