FanPost

Projections and Some Commentary

Editor's Note: Welcoming nyi22 (a user name after my own heart) and front-paging his FanPost 'cause I won't have anything new tonight, and all use of debate-stirring charts to put off productive time at work is highly encouraged.

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Long time reader, first time poster.  I thought I'd project out some numbers to stir up some discussion.

So far, the Islanders have played 14 games this season (5-4-5). That works out to approximately 17% of the games they will play this season.  Granted its not a huge sample size, but I think with almost 1/5 of the season played so far, it will provide a somewhat accurate gauge of where our players are heading.  Alright, it's not even somewhat accurate but at least its fun to look at. I was just going to project a few players numbers, but since I'm bored at work I decided to bust out excel and do the whole team (minus the goalies):

Rk Player Pos GP G A PTS
1 Matt Moulson LW 82 35 29 64
2 John Tavares C 82 29 35 64
3 Kyle Okposo RW 82 18 41 59
4 Jeff Tambellini LW 77 33 11 44
5 Mark Streit D 82 12 23 35
6 Doug Weight C 77 0 33 33
7 Joshua Bailey C 82 12 12 23
8 Frans Nielsen C 76 11 11 22
9 Andy Sutton D 82 12 12 23
10 Jack Hillen D 78 0 22 22
11 Radek Martinek D 82 12 6 18
12 Brendan Witt D 82 12 6 18
13 Richard Park RW 82 6 12 18
14 Sean Bergenheim LW 82 0 18 18
15 Blake Comeau RW 77 0 17 17
16 Freddy Meyer D 76 0 16 16
17 Trent Hunter RW 70 5 5 10
18 Tim Jackman RW 82 6 0 6
19 Jon Sim LW 80 6 0 6
20 Bruno Gervais D 78 0 6 6
21 Rob Schremp C 74 0 5 5
22 Nate Thompson C 78 0 6 6
24 Joel Rechlicz RW 73 0 0 0

 

I think if Moulson, Tavares and Okposo all reach the 60 point plateau this will have been a huge step forward for the rebuild.  I think the point totals for these three make sense, but I would expect less goals from Tavares and Moulson (Moulson I think will be around 24, Tavares 27) and more from Okposo with less assists.  There's no way Tambellini is scoring 33 goals but if he hits 20, that will also be a nice addition of secondary scoring moving forward. 

As for the players who I think will exceed these projections - Streit should have more assists and Bailey too (hopefully) - though I see 12 goals as a high expectation for Bailey considering how he's played.  Bergenheim obviously has to start putting some points on the board and I think his play has pointed towards that starting to happen.  Finally, I hope Nielsen can stay healthy and start really producing the numbers I think he's capable of (10-15 goals sounds right but maybe 30 assists).  Anyway, these numbers really don't mean anything but at least its fun to have an Islanders team with stats that I'm not completely ashamed of anymore.  Maybe I'll do this again in 15 games or so to see how the team is progressing. 

I'm interested to hear other peoples takes on these numbers so far and where they think players will end up.

<em>Submitted FanPosts do not necessarily reflect the views of this blog or SB Nation. If you're reading this statement, you pass the fine print legalese test. Four stars for you.</em>

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