Projections and Some Commentary
by nyi22 on Nov 3, 2009 4:05 PM EST
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PrintEditor's Note: Welcoming nyi22 (a user name after my own heart) and front-paging his FanPost 'cause I won't have anything new tonight, and all use of debate-stirring charts to put off productive time at work is highly encouraged.
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Long time reader, first time poster. I thought I'd project out some numbers to stir up some discussion.
So far, the Islanders have played 14 games this season (5-4-5). That works out to approximately 17% of the games they will play this season. Granted its not a huge sample size, but I think with almost 1/5 of the season played so far, it will provide a somewhat accurate gauge of where our players are heading. Alright, it's not even somewhat accurate but at least its fun to look at. I was just going to project a few players numbers, but since I'm bored at work I decided to bust out excel and do the whole team (minus the goalies):
| Rk | Player | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 1 | Matt Moulson | LW | 82 | 35 | 29 | 64 |
| 2 | John Tavares | C | 82 | 29 | 35 | 64 |
| 3 | Kyle Okposo | RW | 82 | 18 | 41 | 59 |
| 4 | Jeff Tambellini | LW | 77 | 33 | 11 | 44 |
| 5 | Mark Streit | D | 82 | 12 | 23 | 35 |
| 6 | Doug Weight | C | 77 | 0 | 33 | 33 |
| 7 | Joshua Bailey | C | 82 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
| 8 | Frans Nielsen | C | 76 | 11 | 11 | 22 |
| 9 | Andy Sutton | D | 82 | 12 | 12 | 23 |
| 10 | Jack Hillen | D | 78 | 0 | 22 | 22 |
| 11 | Radek Martinek | D | 82 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 12 | Brendan Witt | D | 82 | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| 13 | Richard Park | RW | 82 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 14 | Sean Bergenheim | LW | 82 | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| 15 | Blake Comeau | RW | 77 | 0 | 17 | 17 |
| 16 | Freddy Meyer | D | 76 | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| 17 | Trent Hunter | RW | 70 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 18 | Tim Jackman | RW | 82 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 19 | Jon Sim | LW | 80 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 20 | Bruno Gervais | D | 78 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 21 | Rob Schremp | C | 74 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
| 22 | Nate Thompson | C | 78 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 24 | Joel Rechlicz | RW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I think if Moulson, Tavares and Okposo all reach the 60 point plateau this will have been a huge step forward for the rebuild. I think the point totals for these three make sense, but I would expect less goals from Tavares and Moulson (Moulson I think will be around 24, Tavares 27) and more from Okposo with less assists. There's no way Tambellini is scoring 33 goals but if he hits 20, that will also be a nice addition of secondary scoring moving forward.
As for the players who I think will exceed these projections - Streit should have more assists and Bailey too (hopefully) - though I see 12 goals as a high expectation for Bailey considering how he's played. Bergenheim obviously has to start putting some points on the board and I think his play has pointed towards that starting to happen. Finally, I hope Nielsen can stay healthy and start really producing the numbers I think he's capable of (10-15 goals sounds right but maybe 30 assists). Anyway, these numbers really don't mean anything but at least its fun to have an Islanders team with stats that I'm not completely ashamed of anymore. Maybe I'll do this again in 15 games or so to see how the team is progressing.
I'm interested to hear other peoples takes on these numbers so far and where they think players will end up.
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Welcome!
Thanks for signing up. (I’m a sucker for that username, btw.) Heh, first FanPost and already flashing the Excel skills. Seriously, thanks for doing the work on this.
Moulson’s and Tavares’s points are about right, I think, though I expect a little less from Moulson (may he prove me wrong). I think Okposo will heat it up and certainly finish with 20+ goals.
Weight’s and Witt’s lopsided projections are hilarious for opposite reasons. I love how one wild night can change a guy’s pace from 0 goals in 92 games to a 12-game season!
I agree no way Tambellini hits 30 — unless we’re having one helluva special year — and Bergenheim is due. He’s playing too well to not be rewarded.
Other than all that, the most interesting one to me was Hillen. For a guy who didn’t play at the start and doesn’t get 1st PP time, I really like what he’s done so far.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
I see it differently
I think Moulson, JT, Kyle, Frans, and Tambellini will all score 30+ and JT and Kyle may get over 40. Streit, Sutton, and Martinek will have double digits and Weight Hunts, and Bergy will be 20+.
Witt the Scoring Machine Vs. Bergenheim
I love that Witt, Martinek and Sutton are all projected to out score Bergy, whose projected to get 0 goals. He’s got to be the next one to break through with some goals…right?
Heh…and to outscore Campoli, too. (He has 1 goal to their 2.)
Surely Bergenheim will collect a few any day now. He’s busting his tail. If he keeps playing with Nielsen, surely the Dane will set him up.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
1st post and front page wow
Thanks Dominik for the first page cred. I may have a new hobby at work….
Anyway, one other thing that stands out to me here is the amount of assists KO is on pace for. I always thought of him as more of a goal scorer, and I do think he will regularly pot 30+ once he really gets going in his career, but his hard skating and determined play has really been creating chances for the rest of his line. This is why he should stay on a line with Tavares as he will eventually bury most of those chances. KO’s point potential could be higher than I ever thought. I think the sky is the limit for this kid and hopefully future captain.
Agreed, that does stand out. And with both Tavares and Moulson showing an ability to finish, having him as the buzzing worker bee on the line makes sense. He just creates havoc and openings for those two to pounce.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
Nice work!
Being a transplanted Isles fan in CT i didn’t get to watch them the past couple years and lost touch. This year i went and got the NHL Game Center online and have been watching as many of the games as i could. So having not really seen how bad they were last year i just see their performance this year as normal! HA!
but how cool would it be if these projections panned out??? Playoffs here we come!
and if not the Tavares/Okposo/Moulson sure as heck is entertaining to watch, these guys are going to be fun for a long time……
the Tavares/Okposo/Moulson [line] sure as heck is entertaining to watch, these guys are going to be fun for a long time……
Man, it was a pleasant surprise that they hit it off so quickly.
And welcome! Thanks for joining. I almost envy that you missed last year ;) But you’ll find fans from all over the map here, so you’ll fit right in.
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
so Dom, u need a cool name to get love?
just kidding, lol
i really hate getting tied up into proj’s (remember A-rod’s pace for 117 HR’s last April???)
but i’ll bite on this… witt, you can change to 3 if you want to be optimistic, replace his other 9 with bergie if you want…
overall, KO will get more goals than assists, PROVIDED that his PP time is not at the point, where he was a distributor instead of a shooter
i do however, from a comical standpoint, LOVE the Rechlicz proj…
SADLY, if you project the team out, we end with 88 points, and for the last 5 (maybe more) years, 92 was the MINIMUM needed to get into the 2nd season
need a cool name to get love?
Never hurts!
The Rechlicz projection is awesome. Sadly, being in Bridgeport is hurting his chances at meeting that lofty pace.
Seriously, I share general distaste for straight “on pace for” projections — or at least for believing in them — but as long as everybody agrees we’re just toying with a (suddenly) hot team, they can be damn funny. I mean, Tim Jackman: On pace for a career year!
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
There is absolutely no way Witt, Martinek, AND Sutton score 12 goals…each… Maybe combined they score 12. But C’mon? Really? 12 each? Give Streit some more time and he’ll be back on that 50-60 point pace.
If you told me at the beginning of the season that Matt Moulson would lead the team in goals this year… I’d say who the $%!# is Matt Moulson? Not saying he hasn’t been playing bad, he’s been great so far, but I’ll eat my hand if he finishes the leader in goals.
They could, and I will always have doubts.. but yeah they make the playoffs. They’ve been entertaining the last couple of games, and they’ve fought hard in just about every game. So far, so good. I’m starting to beleive again.
LOL. Yeah, that’s what makes the “on-pace” projection fun — some crazy projections emerge when you’re this early. With health and luck, I could see Witt and/or Martinek having better years, though. Gordon’s definitely encouraging them to pinch.
…And welcome, thanks for joining. Belief is a refreshing thing, innit?
Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.
holy schnike
i highly doubt moulson and tamby are both going get 30 or more goals but one can dream, also no way is schrempy going to play 75 games and never score one goal.
but great post dude
Both Moulson and Tambellini have the physical talent and ability and...
they are on course to score more than 30 goals. I would not be surprised. I could see Sutton having 12 goals and MAYBE Martinek. Witt might not score any more the rest of his career.
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