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Islanders Gameday vs. Flyers: Please don't hurt us

One complaint among Islanders fans this summer was the need for an enforcer or, at minimum, toughness, because teams like the Flyers, Rangers and Penguins had added physical guys. I'm all for team toughness, but I'm not for paying a guy like Colton Orr $4 million over 4 years to be your worst player. (Ah yes, Orr: Who's taken five times more penalties than he's drawn, and who was the only Leaf Monday night on the ice for more shots directed at his own net than at the Islanders'. (Yes, the same night the Isles were outshot 61-21. Pay that man a million dollars! Lock him up until 2013!)

Phi-lowp_medium                  Nyi-lown_medium
Philadelphia Flyers (12-8-1, 25pts) at New York Islanders
(9-8-7, 25pts)
7 p.m. | Nassau [
home, sweet home] Coliseum | MSG+, radio

Frequent Flyer Hub: Broad Street Hockey

Granted, some nights you need to "put on the foil" and be armed with enforcers for a goon-it-up evening. And sometimes "the guys" enjoy that boost. But far more often, you just need toughness: Forwards who can hit (Trent Hunter, Sean Bergenheim), forwards who are not easily knocked off the puck (Matt Moulson, Kyle Okposo), and forwards who are passable 4th-line players and are also willing to drop the gloves (Tim Jackman, Nate Thompson). The Islanders are generally undersized and need to rectify this over the long-term. But the solution is not to make a millionaire out of a guy who can only skate (poorly) six minutes a night, while taking dumb penalties and only finding a role when the other team's resident enforcer mutually agrees it's time for a job-justification bout.

But tonight is the first test against the physical Flyers, who are so physical even Dannyiel Briere is doing naughty things, right? Will they run over the Islanders physically? Will they hurt them? It's possible. But I'm more worried about Chris Pronger simply being physically dominant around the Flyers net -- John Tavares's workshop -- and using his long reach to disrupt any moves or shots Tavares tries. I'm also worried about the Flyers' 25.6% powerplay, and the Islanders' tendency to be tagged with several penalties per game (though not as much at home).

And more than that, I'm worried about the Islanders hurting us, the fans -- by getting a lead and making us run through a bottle of antacids and a six-pack of beer hoping against hope that they don't deviate from the approach that got them that lead.

Star-divide

I almost throw the 3-0 lead over the Leafs out; the Islanders were playing poorly before that three-minute spurt, so it's not like "keep doing what you're doing" was the strategy for success, particularly since the "Just throw it at Vesa" strategy became moot once Toskala left the game hurt. But overall, this is a young, not very deep team. So this protecting leads thing, it's going to take time. And ultimately, it's going to take a few more better players.

The Flyers Have Been Recently Rather Rude to the Islanders

Islanders vs. Flyers 2007-09
Record Shots GF GA PP PK FO rec
2007-08 1-6-1 264-239 16 30 3/33 18/32 233-214
2008-09 0-4-2 203-182 12 22 2/23 13/17 192-197

 

In the throes of last year's misery, in a post noting how the Islanders were particularly feeble against their playoff-caliber Atlantic Division brethren, I recalled how the year before (2007-08) they'd played everyone tough -- except the Flyers. In fact, in 07-08, the Flyers wouldn't have made the playoffs without the 14 points they took from the Islanders. So in 2009-10, when the Islanders are closer to their 07-08 competitive selves, will the Flyers domination continue?

I'll just note a few things about Ted Nolan's meetings vs. Scott Gordon's meetings: Nolan had the superior team (and superior goaltending, with DiPietro playing 6 of 8), yet far worse special teams. I mean, just look at that PK: 18 for 32? Faceoffs are pretty close to even for both coaches, when you're talking some 400 faceoffs. And while the Islanders have outshot the Flyers in both years, that is often a product of a team constantly playing behind, throwing desperation bombs while an opponent is content to sit back and close out its win.

The Flyers goalie for 12 of those wins over the last two seasons? Why "Islanders-killer" Martin Biron, of course. Biron gets the start tonight, so hopefully his Islander-killing ways are behind him.

With the way Biron sometimes cheats off his post, I fear he's the type of guy whose teammates might know his weaknesses. Conversely, nothing brings out a singular focus like playing against the team that let you go.

This and That (and-uh)

Andrew MacDonald was sent back to Bridgeport "on loan," according to Katie Strang. If "loan" means we get him back soon, let it be so. I dread more Meyer-Witt by the same degree I relish the chance to see more of Jack Hillen's growth. Your third pairing is general your two weakest defensemen, but those two have been, well, our two weakest defensemen. By Corsi, Witt has been weaker than Meyer -- but in that measure Bruno Gervais has been weaker than both. (Fine print: Yesterday's straw poll concluded that this site's motto should be "So basically, the stats make no sense whatsoever." So there's that.)

Speaking of undersized: Old friend Marc-Andre Bergeron got two goals in the Habs' win over the Blue Jackets. That dude, every once in a while he makes you wonder...then he makes a play that gets him benched.

We're Talkin' About Practice, Man: The Islanders canceled the full-squad practice and just had Rick DiPietro and the scratches and some random regulars. I know they were coming home from the road, but to me the only guy who needed a rest was Roloson. The rest of them could stand to work on correcting a few habits. That said, coaches loooooove practice, and coming home is like giving them their remote control back so they can tinker and direct. So if Gordon passed up a chance to practice in favor of giving them a mental rest, I defer to the guy who is a professional coach.

Lineup Shenanigans: Chris Botta says tonight it will be the same 18 as Monday, though the lines may be shaken up. It's hard to evaluate anyone in Monday's debacle (outside of Sean Bergenheim, Josh Bailey, Hillen, and Dwayne "God" Roloson), but what did you think of Trent Hunter with Tavares and Moulson? In theory it makes sense. And Hunter set up the Hillen shot on Moulson's goal. But I wonder if it's time to put Okposo back up there and reunite that line? Or is it time for Okposo to rediscover how to score without being on that line?

For the Flyers, Briere (suspension), old pal Arron Asham, and Blair Betts are all out.

Prediction: Josh Bailey continues his scoring streak.

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On the other hand...

maybe Sim can get under Pronger’s skin and goad him into stupid penalties.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 25, 2009 8:08 AM EST reply actions  

Who is in net for them? Are they starting Emery or Bouch in net tonight? I can see a slow start in the first on this game due to the intimidation but perhaps they will have another second period explosion. Part of me just wants to believe that without Briere the Flyers are just a more physical Ranger team…minus the goaltending. Of course handling Pronger won’t be fun to watch. Do you just send Sim or Bergenheim in there to wear him down?

I'll see your starting goalie and raise you a Biron.

by metalcoconut on Nov 25, 2009 12:33 PM EST reply actions  

The word is Bouch v. Biron.

You know, I think Sim and Bergenheim are the right guys to get Pronger to do something stupid. Pronger’s been in peak form so far this year though.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

A face for radio, a voice for print

If anyone’s interested, the guys at Broad Street Hockey (SBN’s Flyers site) have started a podcast show, and I was their guest last night. The first half is Flyers-focused, rehashing their road trip, but I joined about half-way (29 minutes or so) in.

Mostly told them about Isles stuff and Lighthouse Project stuff you all already know, but if you want to hear audio evidence of why I write but don’t speak (or hear me suddenly fumble the dates for the Coliseum lease — I blame the beer), here’s a link:

[RSS] – [iTunes] – [Talkshoe]

I still don’t pronounce Tavares’s name the way he prefers it. And I wish I’d had time to praise the atmosphere of the Coliseum — the concourses and amenities are one thing, but for the actual game, there’s nothing like an old barn when it’s full and rocking.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 12:35 PM EST reply actions  

don’t tell me you want all ‘carlin’ on them? i can’t watch it if that’s the case…lol

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 25, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions  

“A three-game losing streak, and you’re tied with the Isles in points, I bet you guys feel like the sky is falling, Pronger is awful, and you might as well give up now. Am I right?”

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Just to give you some news on the Nets Stadium. They just got through NY Supreme Court deciding that NYC could enforce eminent domain on the property. Most of the area is a Rail Yard, the problem is theres about 140 something residents on the edge whose neighborhood looks like any other neighborhood in the city. I don’t think Nassau/Hempstead would have to worry about enforcing eminent domain.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by WebBard on Nov 25, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions  

You have a good radio presence. That was a good representation of the Isles. Good job Dom!

I'll see your starting goalie and raise you a Biron.

by metalcoconut on Nov 25, 2009 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks, everybody.

I was surprised I remained calm on the Lighthouse Project stuff, because at this point when I’m asked, I just feel tired of talking about it, though obviously it’s understandable the questioner usually hasn’t heard anything beyond headlines. Meanwhile I’m just thinking, “I want to talk hockey!”

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Plus in reality you said it best. Wang’s not about to move the team to KC and have his business Headquartered in Suffolk. Unless he sells the team, they aren’t leaving the NY Metro area.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by WebBard on Nov 25, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Meanwhile I’m just thinking, "I want to talk hockey!"

who’d have thunk that they would have asked you… dominik… of lighthouse hockey about the lighthouse project – the balls on these guys!!!
(this is written with as much sarcasm as one can possibly convey in text)

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 25, 2009 2:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Well-played, sir. Still, it’s a personal goal to get through one “what’s up with the Islanders?” interview without discussing land development or 15-year goalies. Hey, a boy can dream, can’t he?

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

haha, 15 years… didn’t ricky say something like, he had “12 more years to make good on his contract” or something… ooof, now he’s thinking long term… just get fn healthy first rick

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 25, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

You did a good job, Dom.

I still don’t pronounce Tavares’s name the way he prefers it.

I remember he specifically said that he is fine with either pronunciation (air-ez or arr-ez).
I say it just like you do, for the record. :)

Let Us Go, Islanders!
(Ever notice how strange that sounds without the contraction?)

by TheMetalChick on Nov 25, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I get referenced in the post and the comments. I was on a roll yesterday. Sometimes it pays to not give up when your internet connection is giving you trouble.

I’m sad to see MacDonald going back down to Bridgeport. I guess they figured he was already on the road trip, no reason to send him back till they got home. I guess they saw enough out of him to know he’s good if another dman goes down.

BTW: No worries about fumbling the dates on the Coliseum lease. I’m sure the lease doesn’t matter if Wang really wanted to move the Isles. Listening to the podcast, your voice sounds fine for Radio. You’d do fine if you had a script in front of you.

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by WebBard on Nov 25, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions  

Comeau

What does Scott Gordon like about Sim more than Comeau?

by Lakewood Islander on Nov 25, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions  

Interesting question

And welcome — thanks for joining!

If I were to guess, it’s not so much that Sim is better, it’s that Sim knows how to approach the game on a night-to-night basis. Say what we will about Sim’s skills or lack thereof, he hasn’t been taking shifts off, even when he only gets 4th-line minutes. Whereas Comeau still does, and still at times doesn’t drive to the battle areas.

I suspect Gordon is trying to make Comeau and Tambellini every-shift-matters players by using the carrot (ice time) and stick (scratches). That and he’s stuck with Sim, so he’s using the only tools he has: Scratching a vet like Sim isn’t really going to make him a better player at this point, but at least from a coach’s perspective (I imagine), it just might help those two reach their potential. That’s my guess on it, anyway.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions  

sim’s playing like claude lapointe but somehow he’s managing to score less and become less popular the longer he “takes time” away from guys like blake…

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 25, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

not too worried about taking time away from Blake unless and until he shows another level

his point projection is way behind last year’s totals. Sim won’t be here next year for sure. Blake might not be if he doesn’t get his act together.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 25, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Lapointe was popular? In NY or Quebec?

"So basically, the Stats make no sense whatsoever."

by WebBard on Nov 25, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

i remember him being very popular on the isle

why isn't #16 hanging in the rafters?

by bob l on Nov 25, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions  

comeau

Thanks Dominik, I understand that sim does crash the net unlike comeau but he has the same problems finishing! comeau can handle the puck ,kill penalties and is a 1st class pain in the neck to opponents! in regards to Tambellini, i have 1 point and that is until the isles prove they can hold a lead on a consistent basis ,Tambellini Must Dress! simply because he excels in the Shootout. Agreed?

by Lakewood Islander on Nov 25, 2009 4:09 PM EST reply actions  

Because of Tambellini’s offense (and shootout, which is no small matter with this team), I’m in favor of not sitting Tamby for long stretches. Don’t mind a scratch here and there to keep him in line, but five games at a time doesn’t work for me.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Sim vs Sim (last year this year)

Last year the Isles tried to wave Sim and then ate his $1mil one way contract by sending him to bridgeport while Blake was here. This year Sim is a regular and Comeau/tamby are getting scratched. I get what Sim does but why the sudden change in how he’s used? what happened?

by neologizer on Nov 25, 2009 5:39 PM EST reply actions  

Honestly, I think last year was teaching him the lesson. He was apparently part of the “bad apple” veteran crew that included Comrie and Campoli. Guys who were pissed about the young guys getting chances before they’d paid their dues.

Guess he reformed over the summer.

Lighthouse Hockey: Side effects may include Weight gain and frequent game loss.

by Dominik on Nov 25, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Presumably Gordon is seeing things in his game that he thinks the team needs...

and he is not seeing it so much from Comeau. I did projections of what some of our guys would do that were ramped up from what THN projected each of them to do. I have just compared those projections with their to date perfromance and projected what their production would be if they score at the rate they have been so far over the remaining 58 games.

Frans actually comes out ahead. THN had him at 12-28-40, I had him at 17-38-55 and if he scores at this pace he will actually finish at about 23-40-63. Not surprsingly, Tambellini also came out ahead. THN projected him at 15-18-33 and, since I did not think he would do that well, I didn’t project him. If he kept the current pace and played in all 58, he would have 35-12-47. Hunts, Kyle, and Parkie come out behind my estimate but ahead of THN’s. Josh, Blake, Sean, and Mark all come out behind. Josh and Mark will be fine if they start getting more assists while Sean needs to score more goals. Even if they do not, however, they make up for it in other ways.

That leaves Blake. He is behind on his production. THN had him at 12-23-35, I had him at 17-38-55. If he is projected at his current pace and plays in all remaining 58, he gets 6-19-25. So he is well behind in goals and assists and I do not think his play so far has compensated in other ways. He needs to pick it up if he wants to be part of the Islander future.

by BCISLEMAN on Nov 25, 2009 8:06 PM EST up reply actions  

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New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Josh Bailey 12 C 10/2/1989 188 6-1
Blake Comeau 57 RW 2/18/1986 207 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 210 6-1
Mark Eaton 0 D 5/6/1977 204 6-2
Mark Flood 4 D 9/29/1984 190 6-1
Bruno Gervais 8 D 10/3/1984 205 6-1
Trevor Gillies 14 LW 1/30/1979 215 6-3
Michael Haley 59 C 3/30/1986 202 5-11
Jack Hillen 38 D 1/24/1986 200 5-11
Trent Hunter 7 RW 7/5/1980 210 6-3
Milan Jurcina 0 D 6/7/1983 236 6-4
Anton Klementyev 48 D 3/25/1990 198 6-1
Dustin Kohn 56 D 2/2/1987 200 6-2
Zenon Konopka 0 C 1/2/1981 213 6-1
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 188 6-1
Matt Martin 46 LW 3/8/1989 192 6-2
Radek Martinek 24 D 8/31/1976 203 6-1
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 206 6-1
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 172 5-11
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 200 6-1
P.A. Parenteau 0 LW 3/24/1983 198 6-0
Richard Park 10 RW 5/27/1976 190 5-11
Joel Rechlicz 40 RW 6/14/1987 220 6-4
Dylan Reese 42 D 8/29/1984 195 6-0
Dwayne Roloson 30 G 10/12/1969 180 6-1
Rob Schremp 13 C 7/1/1986 200 5-11
Jon Sim 16 LW 9/29/1977 195 5-10
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 195 6-0
Doug Weight 93 C 1/21/1971 196 5-11
James Wisniewski 0 D 2/21/1984 207 6-0

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