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In thanks for Josh Bailey

Happy Thanksgiving to the Americans. Happy Battle of Ontario to the Canadians. "Sorry about the whole economic crisis thing" to the rest of the world. Our bad.

Today I write in thanks for Josh Bailey. I promise the Islanders 2008 first-round pick is staying with the big club, or my name ain't Nathan Arizona. Bailey's played 8 games. Friday afternoon will be his 9th. The Islanders have given no indication they'll be sending him back to juniors before game 10. After a start much delayed by a preseason injury, Bailey has proven himself too valuable and too mature for the club to stomach sending him away.

At least for the sake of this season, anyway. He's not piled up the points yet, but Bailey's passing and hockey smarts -- and his aid to the power play -- have been quite impressive since making a tentative debut in Philadelphia. You can tell the points will come. He has demonstrated every attribute Isles management raved about this summer, when explaining why they turned a would-be Filatov or Schenn pick into Bailey and several more assets.

As one scout told Chris Botta last night (same link as above):

His sense with and without the puck is outstanding. It’s why he was in on each of the first three goals and had assists on two. ... He’s good along the wall, in cycles and in traffic with the puck. Having that kind of poise at 19 in his eighth NHL game is pretty impressive. And with that sense comes vision. He sees the ice really, really well.

Star-divide


GP G A P +/- PIM PPG SHG GWG GTG SOG PCT
2008 - Josh Bailey 8 0 5 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0.0

With Mike Sillinger only now nearing a return, with Frans Nielsen out for the next 2-3 months, with Mike Comrie's return indefinite, the Islanders' day-to-day offense depends on having Bailey keep doing what he's doing.

Since the Islanders have to make this decision now -- rather than a few weeks into the season -- the variables involved are even clearer. He clearly helps the team; he gives them a chance to make a year of it; he clearly has the maturity and attitude not to be overwhelmed at age 19.

This could harm the Islanders long-term, however: There's the matter of burning a year of his contract, and making him a UFA at an even earlier age. There's the matter of maybe, possibly, he'd excel even further in his career if he had one more year of development at a level where he can take over. And there's the matter of his presence making the Islanders a better team and thus preventing them from getting a higher draft pick next year. (Alternatively, if they should still land a Tavares-area pick, that means Bailey's just stuck around for a very bad team season in the NHL.)

But all glib Tavares/Hedman jokes aside, you can't tank. You just can't. So considering they've held Bailey around the NHL club for this long, and considering he's done absolutely nothing to indicate he deserves to be in junior rather than on Long Island, keeping him is the call they have to make.

They started down this path by keeping him on the roster after training camp -- and ironically, his injury and rehab process around the club may have helped "train him" at the NHL level before the games-played clock started ticking down. This weekend we'll probably hear the Josh Bailey Era has officially begun.

(Of course, now that I've written this, I fully expect the jinx to be in effect and to hear he's hurt tomorrow or hear he's going back to juniors for "what's best for Josh Bailey.")

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Bailey

Leafs have had to go through the same decision-making process with Luke Schenn (he stayed with the parent club). I was initially of the view that this is a mistake for the reason pointed out above – that it makes him a UFA a year earlier – but that’s really only a “problem” if the player has been succeeding throughout the term of his contract to such a degree that he’s expecting a big payday when he declares free agency (assuming the team doesn’ t have other internal issues that dissuade players from signing with the team). What I mean is that, assuming a player is otherwise prepared to sign with the team (no organizational instability / dressing room issues / moron coaches), the only "problem"that occurs is that if the player has been doing well, he expects a fat contract, which decreases overall cap flexibility. But if the player has been performing well enough to justify this payday, what the hell is the point of having him in junior anyway? If he doesn’t need further seasoning in a minor league, he ought to be with the big club – or you risk actually hindering his development.

jrwendelman
The Artist Formerly Known as "Junior", who blogs at heroesinrehab.ca/blog

"But if someone so eager to engage into fist talk, we can always meet after season end in Minsk." (Mikhail Grabovski and a well-meaning but not particularly skillful translator)

by jrwendelman on Nov 28, 2008 12:31 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I agree. A team eventually gets to the point where the only “problem” is a good one to have, in that the player has met expectations earned a big payday. I guess the only calculus left is whether he’s doing enough to help the team now, and wouldn’t benefit just as much having this year in junior. But Bailey seems to have answered those questions as best he can through nine games.

Lighthouse Hockey: a New York Islanders blog with hip issues.

by Dominik on Nov 30, 2008 3:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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Atlantic Standings

GP W L OTL PT
New Jersey 58 36 20 2 74
Pittsburgh 59 35 22 2 72
Philadelphia 57 29 25 3 61
New York Rangers 59 26 26 7 59
New York Islanders 58 23 27 8 54

(updated 2.9.2010 at 9:00 AM EST)

New York Islanders Roster

# Pos. DOB W H
Sean Bergenheim 20 LW 2/8/1984 205 5-10
Blake Comeau 57 RW 2/18/1986 207 6-1
Rick DiPietro 39 G 9/19/1981 210 6-1
Bruno Gervais 8 D 10/3/1984 205 6-1
Trent Hunter 7 RW 7/5/1980 210 6-3
Dustin Kohn 56 D 2/2/1987 200 6-2
Andrew MacDonald 47 D 9/7/1986 188 6-1
Freddy Meyer 44 D 1/4/1981 192 5-10
Matt Moulson 26 LW 11/1/1983 206 6-1
Frans Nielsen 51 C 4/24/1984 172 5-11
Kyle Okposo 21 RW 4/16/1988 200 6-1
Richard Park 10 RW 5/27/1976 190 5-11
Dwayne Roloson 30 G 10/12/1969 180 6-1
Rob Schremp 13 C 7/1/1986 200 5-11
Jon Sim 16 LW 9/29/1977 195 5-10
Mark Streit 2 D 12/11/1977 197 6-0
Andy Sutton 25 D 3/10/1975 245 6-6
Jeff Tambellini 15 LW 4/13/1984 186 5-11
John Tavares 91 C 9/20/1990 195 6-0
Doug Weight 93 C 1/21/1971 196 5-11

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